Space-Time Earthquake Prediction: The Error Diagrams

Pure and Applied Geophysics

Volumn 167, Issue 8-9, 2010, Pages 907-917

  Molchan, G ^a,b  

^a INSTITUTE OF EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION THEORY AND MATHEMATICAL GEOPHYSICS   (Russian Federation)

^b ABDUS SALAM INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR THEORETICAL PHYSICS   (Italy)

Author keywords

Earthquake dynamics; Prediction; Statistical seismology

Indexed keywords

EARTHQUAKE DYNAMICS; EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION; LOCAL TIME; PREDICTION; PREDICTION CAPABILITY; PREDICTION METHODS; SIMPLE ALGORITHM; SIMPLE STRUCTURES; SPACE-TIME DIAGRAMS; STATISTICAL SEISMOLOGY; WEIGHT VECTOR; WEIGHTED MEAN;

EARTHQUAKES; VECTOR SPACES;

FORECASTING;

ALGORITHM; EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION; ERROR ANALYSIS; FAILURE ANALYSIS; SEISMOLOGY;

EID: 78049530866     PISSN: 00334553     EISSN: 14209136     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00024-010-0087-z     Document Type: Article

References (20)

1. Bolshev, L. N. and Smirnov, V. N. Tables of Mathematical Statistics (Nauka, Moscow 1983).
2. Harte, D., and Vere-Jones, D. (2005), The entropy score and its uses in earthquake forecasting, Pure Appl. Geophys. 162, 1229-1253.
3. Hanssen, A. W., and Kuiper, W. J. A. (1965), On the relationship between the frequency of rain and various meteorological parameters, Modedeelingen en Verhandelingen, Royal Notherlands Meteorological Institute, 81.
4. Jolliffe, I. T. and Stephenson, D. B. (eds.), Forecast Verification: A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science (John Wiley & Sons, Hoboken 2003).
5. Kagan, Y. Y. (2007), On earthquake predictability measurement: information score and error diagram, Pure Appl. Geophys. 164, 1947-1962.
6. Keilis-Borok, V. I. and Soloviev, A. A. (eds.), Nonlinear Dynamics of the Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction (Springer-Verlag, Berlin-Heidelberg 2003).
7. Kossobokov, V. G. (2005), Earthquake prediction: Principles, implementation, Perspect. Comput. Seismol. 36-1, 3-175, (GEOS, Moscow).
8. Lehmann, E. L., Testing Statistical Hypotheses (J. Wiley & Sons, New York 1959).
9. Marzocchi, W., Sandri, L., and Boschi, E. (2003), On the validation of earthquake-forecasting models: The case of pattern recognition algorithms, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 93, 5, 1994-2004.
10. Molchan, G. M. (1990), Strategies in strong earthquake prediction, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter. 61(1-2), 84-98.
11. Molchan, G. M. (1991), Structure of optimal strategies of earthquake prediction, Tectonophysics 193, 267-276.
12. Molchan, G. M. (1997), Earthquake prediction as a decision making problem, Pure Appl. Geophys. 149, 233-247.
13. Molchan, G. M., Earthquake prediction strategies: A theoretical analysis. In Nonlinear Dynamics of the Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction (eds. Keilis-Borok, V. I. and Soloviev, A. A.) (Springer-Verlag, Berlin-Heidelberg 2003), pp. 209-237.
14. Molchan, G. M., and Kagan, Y. Y. (1992), Earthquake prediction and its optimization, J. Geophys. Res. 97, 4823-4838.
15. Molchan, G. M. and Keilis-Borok, V. I. (2008), Earthquake prediction: Probabilistic aspect, Geophys. J. Int. 173, 1012-1017.
16. Shcherbakov, R., Turcotte, D. L., Holliday, J. R., Tiampo, K. F., and Rundle, J. B. (2007), A Method for forecasting the locations of future large earthquakes: An analysis and verification, AGU, Fall meeting 2007, abstract #S31D-03.
17. Shen, Z.-K., Jackson, D. D., and Kagan, Y. Y. (2007), Implications of geodetic strain rate for future earthquakes, with a five-year forecast of M 5 Earthquakes in Southern California, Seismol. Res. Lett. 78(1), 116-120.
18. Swets, J. A. (1973), The relative operating characteristic in psychology, Science 182, 4116, 990-1000.
19. Tiampo, K. F., Rundle, J. B., McGinnis, S., Gross, S., and Klein, W. (2002), Mean field threshold systems and phase dynamics: An application to earthquake fault systems, Europhys. Lett. 60(3), 481-487.
20. Zechar, J. D. and Jordan, Th., H. (2008), Testing alarm-based earthquake predictions, Geophys. J. Int. 172, 715-724.