The roles of dispersal, fecundity, and predation in the population persistence of an oak (Quercus engelmannii) under global change

PLoS ONE

Volumn 7, Issue 5, 2012, Pages

  Conlisk, Erin ^a   Lawson, Dawn ^b   Syphard, Alexandra D ^c   Franklin, Janet ^d   Flint, Lorraine ^e   Flint, Alan ^e   Regan, Helen M ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^b Space and Naval Warfare Systems Center Pacific   (United States)

^c Conservation Biology Institute ^*  (United States)

^d ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^e U S GEOLOGICAL SURVEY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ABIOTIC STRESS; ARTICLE; CLIMATE CHANGE; FIRE; GLOBAL CHANGE; LIFE HISTORY TRAIT; METAPOPULATION; NONHUMAN; OAK; PLANT REPRODUCTION; POPULATION ABUNDANCE; POPULATION BIOLOGY; POPULATION DISPERSAL; POPULATION DYNAMICS; POPULATION PERSISTENCE; QUERCUS ENGELMANNII; SEED PREDATION; SPECIES DISTRIBUTION; SPECIES HABITAT; STOCHASTIC MODEL; AUDIOVISUAL EQUIPMENT; BIOLOGICAL MODEL; COMPUTER SIMULATION; DEMOGRAPHY; ECOSYSTEM; PHYSIOLOGY; REPRODUCTION; URBANIZATION;

QUERCUS ENGELMANNII;

CLIMATE CHANGE; COMPUTER SIMULATION; DEMOGRAPHY; ECOSYSTEM; FIRES; MAPS AS TOPIC; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; POPULATION DYNAMICS; QUERCUS; REPRODUCTION; URBANIZATION;

EID: 84862088551     PISSN: None     EISSN: 19326203     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0036391     Document Type: Article

References (78)

1. Franklin J, (2009) Mapping Species Distributions: Spatial Inference and Prediction. Cambridge University Press, New York.
2. Chen I, Hill JK, Ohlemuller R, Roy DB, Thomas CD, (2011) Rapid range shifts of species with high levels of climate warming. Science 222: 1024-1026.
3. Loarie SR, Carter BE, Hayhoe K, McMahon S, Moe R, et al. (2008) Climate change and the future of California's endemic flora. PLoS One 5: e2502.
4. Kueppers LM, Snyder MA, Sloan LC, Zavaleta ES, Fulfrost B, (2005) Modeled regional climate change and California endemic oak ranges. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 102: 16281-16286.
5. Midgley GF, Hughes GO, Thuiller W, Rebelo AG, (2006) Migration rate limitations on climate change-induced range shifts in Cape Proteaceae. Diversity and Distribution 12: 555-562.
6. Svenning J, Skov F, (2007) Could the tree diversity pattern in Europe be generated by postglacial dispersal limitation? Ecology Letters 10: 453-460.
7. Clark JS, (1998) Why trees migrate so fast: confronting theory with dispersal biology and the paleorecord. American Naturalist 152: 204-224.
8. Malcolm J, Markham A, Neilson RP, Garaci M, (2002) Estimated migration rates under scenarios of global climate change. Journal of Biogeography 29: 835-849.
9. Franklin J, (2010) Moving beyond static species distribution models in support of conservation biogeography. Diversity and Distribution 16: 321-330.
10. Williams P, Hannah L, Adelman S, Midgley G, Araujo M, et al. (2005) Planning for climate change: identifying minimum-dispersal corridors for the Cape Proteaceae. Conservation Biology 19: 1063-1074.
11. Loarie SR, Duffy PB, Hamilton H, Asner GP, Field CB, et al. (2009) The velocity of climate change. Nature 426: 1052-1055.
12. Nathan R, Horvitz N, He Y, Kuparinen A, Schurr FM, et al. (2011) Spread of North American wind-dispersed trees in future environments. Ecology Letters 14: 211-219.
13. Bullock JM, White SM, Prudhomme C, Tansey C, Perea R, et al. (2012) Modelling spread of British wind-dispersed plants under future wind speeds in a changing climate. Journal of Ecology 100: 104-115.
14. Nakamura M, Muller O, Tayanagi S, Nakaji T, Hiura T, (2010) Experimental branch warming alters tall leaf phenology and acorn production. Agricultural Forest Meteorology 150: 1026-1029.
15. Perez-Ramos IM, Ourcival JM, Limousin JM, Rambal S, (2010) Mast seeding under increasing drought: results from a long-term data set and from a rainfall exclusion experiment. Ecology 91: 3057-3068.
16. Germaine H, McPherson GR, (1998) Effect of timing of precipitation and acorn harvest date on emergence of Quercus emoryi. Journal of Vegetation Science 9: 157-160.
17. Espelta JM, Bonal R, Sanchez-Humanes B, (2009) Pre-dispersal acorn predation in mixed oak forests: interspecific differences are driven by the interplay among seed phenology, seed size and predator size. Journal of Ecology, 97: 1416-1423.
18. Moore JE, Swihart RK, (2007) Importance of fragmentation-tolerant species as seed dispersers in disturbed landscapes. Oecologia 151: 663-674.
19. Jansen PA, Bongers F, Hemerik L, (2004) Seed mass and mast seeding enhance dispersal by a neotropical scatter-hoarding raodent. Ecological Monographs 74: 569-589.
20. Vander Wall SB, (2002) Masting in animal-dispersed pines facilitates seed dispersal. Ecology 83: 3508-3516.
21. Syphard AD, Radeloff VC, Hawbaker TJ, Stewart SI, (2009) Conservation threats due to human-caused increases in fire frequency in Mediterranean climate ecosystems. Conservation Biology 23: 758-769.
22. Bowman DM, Balch JK, Artaxo P, Bond WJ, Carlson JM, et al. (2009) Fire in the Earth System. Science 324: 481-484.
23. Syphard AD, Radeloff VC, Keeley JE, Hawbaker TJ, Clayton MK, et al. (2007) Human influence on California fire regimes. Ecological Applications 17: 1388-1402.
24. Syphard AD, Franklin J, Keeley JE, (2006) Simulating the effects of frequent fire on southern California coastal shrublands. Ecological Applications 16: 1744-1756.
25. Regan HM, Crookston JB, Swab R, Franklin J, Lawson DM, (2010) Habitat fragmentation and altered fire regime create trade-off for an obligate seeding shrub. Ecology 91: 1114-1123.
26. Lawson DM, Regan HM, Zedler PH, Franklin J, (2010) Cumulative effects of land use, altered fire regime and climate change on persistence of Ceanothus verrucosus, a rare, fire-dependent plant species. Global Change Biology 16: 2518-2529.
27. Keith DA, Akçakaya HR, Thuiller W, Midgley GF, Pearson RG, et al. (2008) Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models. Biology Letters 4: 560-563.
28. Pausas JG, Bradstock RA, Keith DA, Keeley JE, (2004) Plant functional traits in relation to fire in crown-fire ecosystems. Ecology 85: 1085-1100.
29. IUCN (2011) IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Version 2011.1. www.iucnredlist.org Downloaded on 20 October 2011.
30. Principe ZA, (2002) Factors Affecting Engelmann Oak (Quercus engelmannii). Master's Thesis. San Diego State University.
31. Snow GE, (1972) Some Factors Controlling the Establishment and Distribution of Quercus agrifolia and Quercus engelmannii Greene in Certain Southern California Oak Woodlands. PhD Thesis. Oregon State University.
32. Davis F, Tyler C, Mahill B, (2011) Consumer control of oak demography in a Mediterranean-climate savanna. Ecosphere 2 (10): 1-21.
33. Carmel Y, Flather CH, (2006) Constrained range expansion and climate change assessment. Frontiers in Ecology 4: 178-179.
34. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, (2005) Ecosystems and human well-being: synthesis. Island Press, Washington, D.
35. Chapin FS, Zavaleta ES, Eviner VT, Naylor RL, Vitousek PM, et al. (2000) Consequences of changing biodiversity. Nature 405: 234-242.
36. Anderson BJ, Akçakaya HR, Araujo MB, Fordham DA, Martinez-Meyer E, et al. (2009) Dynamics of range margins for metapopulations under climate change. Proeedings of the Royal Society London [Biology] 276: 1415-1420.
37. CALVEG [ESRI geodatabase of vegetation from 1997-2002 Landsat TM. CA Land Cover Mapping and Monitoring Program]. (2004) McClellan, C.A. USDA-Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Region, Remote Sensing Lab. Files: cveg.19s, cveg.30s, cveg.33s, cveg.37s, cveg.56s. 1 [WWW document] Available: http://frap.fire.ca.gov/data/frapgisdata/download.asp? spatialdist = 2&rec = cveg. Accessed 2010 July.
38. Kelly M, Allen-Diaz B, Kobzina N, (2005) Digitization of a historic dataset: The Wieslander California vegetation type mapping project. Madroño 52: 191-201.
39. Phillips SJ, Anderson RP, Schapire RE, (2006) Maximum entropy modelling of species geographic distributions. Ecological Modelling 190: 231-259.
40. Syphard AD, Franklin J, (2009) Differences in spatial predictions among species distribution modeling methods vary with species traits and environmental predictors. Ecography 32: 907-918.
41. Daly C, Halbleib M, Smith JI, Gibson WP, Doggett MK, et al. (2008) Physiographically sensitive mapping of climatological temperature and precipitation across the conterminous United States. International Journal of Climatology 28: 2031-2064.
42. Flint LE, Flint AL, (2012) Downscaling future climate scenarios to fine scales for hydrologic and ecological modeling and analysis. Ecological Processes 1: 1-15.
43. Cayan DR, Maurer EP, Dettinger MD, Tyree M, Hayhoe K, (2008) Climate change scenarios for the California region. Climatic Change, 87: S21-S42.
44. Syphard AD, Clarke KC, Franklin J, Regan HM, McGinnis M, (2011) Forecasts of habitat loss and fragmentation due to urban growth are sensitive to source of input data. Journal of Environmental Management 92: 1882-1893.
45. Candau JT, (2002) Temporal calibration sensitivity of the SLEUTH urban growth model. Master's thesis. University of California, Santa Barbara.
46. Freeman EA, Moisen GG, (2008) A comparison of the performance of threshold criteria for binary classification in terms of predicted prevalence. Ecological Modelling 217: 48-58.
47. Akçakaya HR, Root W, (2005) RAMAS GIS 5: Linking Spatial Data with Population Viability Analysis. Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York.
48. Barbour MG, Billings WD, (1989) North American Terrestrial Vegetation. Cambridge University Press, New York, NY.
49. Lawson D, (1993) Effects of Fire on Stand Structure of Mixed Quercus agrifolia and Quercus engelmannii Woodlands. Master's Thesis. San Diego State University.
50. Plumb, TR, Pillsbury NH, (1986) Proceedings of the Symposium on Multiple-Use Management of California's Hardwood Resources. Forest Service, Pacific Southwest, General Technical Report PSW-100.
51. Koenig WD, Knops JMH, Carmen WJ, Stanback MT, Mumme RL, (1994) Estimating acorn crops using visual surveys. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 24: 2105-2112.
52. Espelta JM, Cortez P, Molowny-Horas R, Sanchez-Humanes B, Retana J, (2008) Masting mediated by summer drought reduces acorn predation in Mediterranean oak forests. Ecology 89: 805-817.
53. Linacre NA, Stewart-Oaten A, Burgman MA, Ades PK, (2004) Incorporating collateral data in conservation biology. Conservation Biology 18 (3): 768-774.
54. Sork VL, (1993) Evolutionary ecology of mast-seeding in temperate and tropical oaks (Quercus spp.). Vegetatio 107/108: 133-147.
55. Polakow D, Bond W, Lindenberg N, Dunne T, (1999) Ecosystem engineering as a consequence of natural selection: methods for testing Mutch's hypothesis from a comparative study of fire hazard rates. In Conference Proceedings Bushfire 99-Australian Bushfire Conference. Charles Sturt University, Albury, Australia (eds. I. Lunt, D. Green and B. Lord).
56. Wells ML, O'Leary JF, Franklin J, Michaelsen J, McKinsey DE, (2004) Variations in a regional fire regime related to vegetation type in San Diego County, California (USA). Landscape Ecol. 19: 138-152.
57. Abrahamson W, Layne J, (2002) Post-fire recovery of acorn production by four oak species in southern ridge sandhill association in south-central Florida. American Journal of Botany 89: 119-123.
58. Espelta JM, Riba M, Retana J, (1995) Patterns of seedling recruitment in West-Mediterranean Quercus ilex forests influenced by canopy development. Journal of Vegetation Science 6: 465-472.
59. Gomez JM, (2003) Spatial patterns in long-distance dispersal of Quercus ilex acorns by jays in a heterogeneous landscape. Ecography 26: 573-584.
60. den Ouden J, Jansen PA, Smit R, (2004) Chapter 13: Jays, mice and oaks: predation and dispersal of Quercus robur and Q. petraea in North-western Europe. In Seed Fate Predation, Dispersal and Seedling Establishment. Editors P.M. Forget, J.E. Lambert, and P.E. Hulme. CABI Publishing. Wallingford, Oxon.
61. Scofield DG, Sork VL, Smouse PE, (2010) Influence of acorn woodpecker social behavior on transport of coast live oak (Quercus agrifolia) acorns in a southern California in a southern oak savanna. Journal of Ecology 98: 561-572.
62. Dixon MD, Johnson WC, Adkisson CS, (1997) Effects of weevil larvae on acorn use by blue jays. Oecologia 111: 201-208.
63. Darley-Hill S, Johnson WC, (1981) Acorn dispersal by the blue jay (Cyanocitta cristata). Oecologia 50: 231-232.
64. Grivet D, Smouse PE, Sork VL, (2005) A novel approach to an old problem: tracking dispersed seeds. Molecular Ecology, 14: 3585-3595.
65. McCarthy MA, Thompson C, (2006) Expected minimum population size as a measure of threat. Animal Conservation 4 (4): 351-355.
66. Iverson LR, Schwartz MW, Prasad A, (2004) How fast and how far might tree species migrate in the eastern United States due to climate change? Global Ecology and Biogeography 13: 209-219.
67. Gomez JM, (2004) Importance of microhabitat and acorn burial on Quercus ilex early recruitment: non-additive effects on multiple demographic processes. Plant Ecology 172: 287-297.
68. Borchert MI, Davis FW, Michaelsen J, Oyler LD, (1989) Interactions of factors affecting seedling recruitment of Blue Oak (Quercus douglasii) in California. Ecology, 70, 389-404.
69. Pincetl S, Rundel PW, DeBlasio JC, Silver D, Scott T, et al. (2008) It's the land use not the fuels: Fires and land development in southern California. Real Estate Review 37: 25-42.
70. Haidinger TL, Keeley JE, (1993) Role of high fire frequency in destruction of mixed chaparral. Madroño 40: 141-147.
71. VanDerWal J, Shoo LP, Johnson CN, Williams SE, (2009) Abundance and the environmental niche: Environmental suitability estimated from niche models predicts the upper limit of local abundance. American Naturalist 174: 282-291.
72. Buckley LB, Urban MC, Angilletta MJ, Crozier LG, Rissler LJ, et al. (2010) Can mechanism inform species' distribution models? Ecology Letters 13: 1041-1054.
73. Bradshaw WE, Holzapfel CM, (2006) Evolutionary response to rapid climate change. Science 312: 1477-1478.
74. Buisson L, Thuiller W, Casajuss N, Lek S, Grenoillet G, (2010) Uncertainty in ensemble forecasting of species distribution. Global Change Biology 16: 1148-1157.
75. Thuiller W, (2004) Patterns and uncertainties of species' range shifts under climate change. Global Change Biology 10: 2020-2027.
76. Elith J, Graham CH, Anderson RP, Dudík M, Ferrier S, et al. (2006) Novel methods improve predictions of species' distributions with occurrence data. Ecography 29: 129-151.
77. Elith J, Graham CH, (2009) Do they? How do they? WHY do they differ? On finding reasons for differing performances of species distribution models. Ecography 32: 66-77.
78. Elith J, Leathwick JR, (2009) Species distribution models: ecological explanation and prediction across space and time. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution and Systematics 40: 677-697.