Potential decadal predictability and its sensitivity to sea ice albedo parameterization in a global coupled model

Climate Dynamics

Volumn 38, Issue 11-12, 2012, Pages 2389-2408

  Koenigk, Torben ^a   Beatty, Christof König ^b   Caian, Mihaela ^a   Döscher, Ralf ^a   Wyser, Klaus ^a  

^a SWEDISH METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL INSTITUTE   (Sweden)

^b UNIVERSITÉ CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN   (Belgium)

Author keywords

Decadal climate variability; Decadal predictability; Global climate modelling

Indexed keywords

AIR TEMPERATURE; ALBEDO; CLIMATE MODELING; CLIMATE PREDICTION; COMPUTER SIMULATION; DECADAL VARIATION; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; ICE THICKNESS; NORTHERN HEMISPHERE; OVERTURN; PARAMETERIZATION; SEA ICE; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS;

ATLANTIC OCEAN; ATLANTIC OCEAN (NORTH); ATLANTIC OCEAN (SOUTH); EUROPE;

EID: 84861818634     PISSN: 09307575     EISSN: 14320894     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1132-z     Document Type: Article

References (51)

1. Baehr J, Cunningham S, Haak H, Heimbach P, Kanzow T, Marotzke J (2009) Observed and simulated estimates of the meridional overturning circulation at 26. 5°N in the Atlantic. Ocean Sci 5: 575-589. http://www. ocean-sci. net/5/575/2009/.
2. Balsamo G, Viterbo P, Beljaars A, van den Hurk B, Betts A, Scipal K (2009) A revised hydrology for the ECMWF model: verification from field site to terestrial water storage and impact in the integrated forecast system. J Hydrometer 10: 623-643.
3. Bechtold P, Köhler M, Jung T, Leutbecher M, Rodwell M, Vitart F, Balsamo G (2008) Advances in predicting atmospheric variability with the ECMWF model, 2008: from synoptic to decadal time-scales. Q J Roy Meteor Soc 134: 1337-1351.
4. Belchansky GI, Douglas DC, Platonov NG (2008) Fluctuating Arctic sea ice thickness changes estimated by an in situ learned and empirically forced neural network model. J Clim 21: 716-729. doi: 10. 1175/2007JCLI1787. 1.
5. Bentsen M, Drange H, Furevik T, Zhou T (2004) Simulated variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Clim Dyn 22: 701-720. doi: 10. 1007/s00382-004-0397-x.
6. Boer GJ (2004) Long time-scale potential predictability in an ensemble of coupled climate models. Clim Dyn 23: 29-44. doi: 10. 1007/s00382-004-0419-8.
7. Boer GJ (2010) Decadal potential predictability of twenty-first century climate. Clim Dyn. published online. doi 10. 1007/s00382-010-0747-9.
8. Bouillon S, Morales Maqueda MA, Legat V, Fichefet T (2009) An elastic-viscous-plastic sea ice model formulated on Arakawa B and C grids. Ocean Model 27(3-4): 174-184. doi: 10. 1016/j. ocemod. 2009. 01. 004.
9. Collins M, Botzet M, Carril AF, Drange H, Jouzeau A, Latif M, Masina S, Otteraa OH, Pohlmann H, Sorteberg A, Sutton R, Terray L (2006) Interannual to decadal predictability in the North Atlantic: a multimodel-ensemble study. J Clim 19: 1195-1203.
10. Cunningham SA, Kanzow T, Rayner D, Baringer MO, Johns WE, Marotzke J, Longworth HR, Grant EM, Hirschi JJM, Beal LM, Meinen CS, Bryden HL (2007) Temporal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26. 5°N. Science 317: 935-939. doi: 10. 1126/science. 1141304.
11. Dau D, Hu A, Meehl GA, Washington WM, Strand GW (2005) Atlantic thermohaline circulation in a coupled general circulation model: unforced variations versus forced changes. J Clim 18: 3270-3293.
12. Delworth TL, Greatbatch RJ (2000) Multidecadal thermohaline circulation variability driven by atmospheric surface flux forcing. J Clim 13: 1481-1495.
13. Delworth TL, Mann ME (2000) Observed and simulated multidecadal variability in the Northern Hemisphere. Clim Dyn 16: 661-676.
14. DeWeaver E, Bitz CM (2006) Atmospheric circulation and its effect on Arctic sea ice in CCSM3 simulations at medium and high resolution. J Clim 19: 2415-2436.
15. Dutra E, Balsamo G, Viterbo P, Miranda PMA, Beljaars A, Schär C, Elder K (2010) An improved snow scheme for the ECMWF land surface model: description and offline validation. J Hydrometeor 11: 899-916. doi: 10. 1175/2010JHMI249. 1.
16. Fichefet T, Morales Maqueda MA (1997) Sensitivity of a global sea ice model to the treatment of ice thermodynamics and dynamics. J Geophys Res 102(C6): 609-612, 646. doi 10. 1029/97JC00480.
17. Goosse H, Selten F, Haarsma R, Opstegh J (2002) A mechanism of decadal variability of the sea ice volume in the northern hemisphere. Clim Dyn 19: 61-83.
18. Haak H, Jungclaus J, Mikolajewicz U, Latif M (2003) Formation and propagation of great salinity anomalies. Geophys Res Lett 30(9): 26/1-26/4.
19. Häkkinen S (1999) A simulation of thermohaline effects of a great salinity anomaly. J Clim 6: 1781-1795.
20. Hazeleger W, Sverijns C, Semmler T, Stefanescu S, Yang S, Wang X, Wyser K, Dutra E, Baldasano JM, Bintanja R, Bougeault P, Caballero R, Ekmann AML, Christensen JH, van den Hurk B, Jimenez B, Kållberg P, Koenigk T, McGrath R, Miranda P, van Noije T, Palmer T, Parodi JA, Schmith T, Selten F, Storelvmo T, Sterl A, Tapamo H, Vancoppenolle M, Viterbo P, Willen U (2010) EC-Earth a seamless earth system prediction approach in action. BAMS 91: 1357-1363. doi: 10. 1175/2010BAMS2877. 1.
21. Holland MM, Bitz CM, Eby M, Weaver AJ (2001) The role of ice-ocean interactions in the variability of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation. J Clim 14: 656-675.
22. Hurrell JW, Delworth TL, Danabasoglu G, Drange H, Drinkwater K, Griffies S, Holbrook N, Kirtman B, Keenlyside N, Latif M, Marotzke J, Murphy J, Meehl GA, Palmer T, Pohlmann H, Rosati T, Seager R, Smith D, Sutton R, Timmermann A, Trenberth KE, Tribbia J, Visbeck M (2009) Decadal Climate Prediction: Opportunities and Challenges. In OceanObs'09.
23. Johannessen OM, Bengtsson L, Miles MW, Kuzmina SI, Semenov WA, Alekseev GV, Nagurnyi AP, Zakharov VF, Bobylev LP, Pettersson LH, Hasselmann K, Cattle HP (2004) Arctic climate change: observed and modelled temperature and sea-ice variability. Tellus 56A: 328-341.
24. Jungclaus JH, Haak H, Latif M, Mikolajewicz U (2005) Arctic-North Atlantic interactions and multidecadal variability of the meridional overturning circulation. J Clim 18(19): 4016-4034.
25. Keenlyside N, Latif M, Jungclaus J, Kornblueh L, Roeckner E (2008) Advancing decadal climate scale prediction in the North Atlantic. Nature 453: 84-88.
26. Koenigk T, Mikolajewicz U (2009) Seasonal to interannual climate predictability in mid and high northern latitudes in a global coupled model. Clim Dyn 32: 783-798. doi: 10. 1007/s00382-008-0419-1.
27. Koenigk T, Mikolajewicz U, Haak H, Jungclaus J (2006) Variability of Fram Strait sea ice export: causes, impacts and feedbacks in a coupled climate model. Clim Dyn 26: 17-34. doi: 10. 1007/s00382-005-0060-1.
28. Latif M (2001) Tropical Pacific/Atlantic ocean interactions at multi-decadal time scales. Geophys Res Lett 28: 539-542.
29. Latif M, Barnett TP (1994) Causes of decadal climate variability over the North Pacific and North America. Science 266: 634-637.
30. Latif M, Collins M, Pohlmann H, Keenlyside N (2006a) A review of predictability studies of atlantic sector climate on decadal timescales. J Clim 19(23): 5971-5987. doi: 10. 1175/JCLI3945. 1.
31. Latif M, Böning C, Willebrand J, Biastoch J, Dengg J, Keenlyside N, Schweckendiek U, Madec G (2006b) Is the thermohaline circulation changing? J Clim 19: 4631-4637.
32. Madec G (2008) NEMO ocean engine. Note du Pole de modélisation, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL), France, No 27 ISSN No 1288-1619.
33. Mann ME, Jones PD (2003) Global surface temperatures over the past two millennia. Geophys Res Lett 30(15): 1820. doi: 10. 1029/2003GL017814.
34. Mantua NJ, Hare SR, Zhang Y, Wallace JM, Francis RC (1997) A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 78: 1069-1079.
35. Meehl GA, Washington WM, Santer BD, Collins WD, Arblaster JM, Hu A, Lawrence DM, Teng H, Buja LE, Strand WG (2006) Climate change projections for the twenty-first century and climate change commitment in the CCSM3. J Clim 19: 2597-2616. doi: 10. 1175/JCLI3746.
36. Mysak L, Venegas S (1998) Decadal climate oscillations in the Arctic: a new feedback loop for atmosphere-ice-ocean interactions. Geophys Res Lett 25(19): 3607-3610.
37. Palmer TN (1993) Extended-range atmospheric prediction and the Lorenz model. Bull Am Meterol Soc 74: 49-65.
38. Pohlmann H, Botzet M, Latif M, Roesch A, Wild M, Tschuck P (2004) Estimating the decadal predictability of a coupled AOGCM. J Clim 17: 4463-4472 (Notes and Correspondence).
39. Pohlmann H, Sienz F, Latif M (2006) Influence of the multidecadal Atlantic meridional overturning circulation variability on European climate. J Clim 19: 6062-6067.
40. Polyakov I, Johnson M (2000) Arctic decadal and interdecadal variability. Geophys Res Lett 27(24): 4097-4100.
41. Reichler TJ, Roads JO (2003) The role of boundary and initial conditions for dynamical seasonal predictability. Nonlinear Process Geophys 10: 211-232.
42. Rothrock DA, Zhang J, Yu Y (2003) The Arctic ice thickness anomaly of the 1990s: a consistent view from observations and models. J Geophys Res 108(C3): 3083. doi: 10. 1029/2001JC001208.
43. Schmith T, Hansen C (2003) Fram Strait ice export during the 19th and 20th centuries: evidence for multidecadal variability. J Clim 16(16): 2782-2791.
44. Schneider N, Cornuelle BD (2005) The forcing of the Pacific decadal oscillation. J Clim 18: 4355-4373.
45. Timmermann A, Latif M, Voss R, Grötzner A (1998) Northern Hemisphere interdecadal variability: a coupled air-sea mode. J Clim 11: 1906-1931.
46. Valcke S (2006) OASIS3 User Guide (prism_2-5). PRISM Report Series, No. 2, 6th edn. [http://www. prism. enes. org/Publications/Reports/all_editions/index. php#report02].
47. Vancoppenolle M, Fichefet T, Goosse H, Bouillon S, König Beatty C, Morales Maqueda MA (2008) LIM3, an advanced sea-ice model for climate simulation and operational oceanography. Mercator Ocean Q Newsl 28: 16-21.
48. Vellinga M, Wu P (2004) Low-latitude freshwater influence on centennial oscillation of the thermohaine circulation. J Clim 17: 4498-4511.
49. Venegas S, Mysak L (2000) Is there a dominant timescale of natural climate variability in the Arctic? J Clim 13: 3413-3434.
50. Wrigglesworth EB, Armour KC, Bitz CM, DeWeaver E (2010) Persistence and inherent predictability of Arctic sea ice in a GCM ensemble and observations. J Clim (accepted). doi 10. 1175/2010JCLI3775. 1.
51. Zwiers FW, von Storch H (1995) Taking serial correlation into account in tests of the mean. J Clim 8: 336-351.