메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 39, Issue 7-8, 2012, Pages 1981-1998

Can model weighting improve probabilistic projections of climate change?

Author keywords

Climate change; Climate projection; CMIP3; Cross validation; Probability; Temperature change; Weighting

Indexed keywords

AIR TEMPERATURE; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; DATA SET; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; NUMERICAL MODEL; PROBABILITY;

EID: 84861386891     PISSN: 09307575     EISSN: 14320894     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1217-8     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (21)

References (27)
  • 1
    • 77949763962 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Correlation between inter-model similarities in spatial pattern for present and projected future mean climate
    • Abe M, Shiogama H, Hargreaves JC, Annan JD, Nozawa T, Emori S (2009) Correlation between inter-model similarities in spatial pattern for present and projected future mean climate. SOLA 5: 133-136.
    • (2009) Sola , vol.5 , pp. 133-136
    • Abe, M.1    Shiogama, H.2    Hargreaves, J.C.3    Annan, J.D.4    Nozawa, T.5    Emori, S.6
  • 3
    • 27644571998 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluation of probabilistic prediction systems for a scalar variable
    • Candille G, Talagrand O (2005) Evaluation of probabilistic prediction systems for a scalar variable. Q J R Meteorol Soc 131: 2131-2150.
    • (2005) Q J R Meteorol Soc , vol.131 , pp. 2131-2150
    • Candille, G.1    Talagrand, O.2
  • 5
    • 64049099715 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Artificial skill due to predictor sceening
    • DelSole T, Shukla J (2009) Artificial skill due to predictor sceening. J Clim 22: 331-345.
    • (2009) J Clim , vol.22 , pp. 331-345
    • DelSole, T.1    Shukla, J.2
  • 6
    • 0037092719 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Calculation of average, uncertainty range, and reliability of regional climate changes from AOGCM simulations via the "reliability ensemble averaging" (REA) method
    • Giorgi F, Mearns LO (2002) Calculation of average, uncertainty range, and reliability of regional climate changes from AOGCM simulations via the "reliability ensemble averaging" (REA) method. J Clim 15: 1141-1158.
    • (2002) J Clim , vol.15 , pp. 1141-1158
    • Giorgi, F.1    Mearns, L.O.2
  • 7
    • 0348044464 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probability of regional climate change based on the reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method
    • doi:10.1029/2003GL017130
    • Giorgi F, Mearns LO (2003) Probability of regional climate change based on the reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method. Geophys Res Lett 30: L1629. doi: 10. 1029/2003GL017130.
    • (2003) Geophys Res Lett , vol.30
    • Giorgi, F.1    Mearns, L.O.2
  • 8
    • 49249113376 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Performance metrics for climate models
    • doi:10.1029/2007JD008972
    • Gleckler PJ, Taylor KE, Doutriaux C (2008) Performance metrics for climate models. J Geophys Res 113: D06104. doi: 10. 1029/2007JD008972.
    • (2008) J Geophys Res , vol.113
    • Gleckler, P.J.1    Taylor, K.E.2    Doutriaux, C.3
  • 10
    • 0000558731 scopus 로고
    • Rational decisions
    • Good IJ (1952) Rational decisions. J R Stat Soc B 14: 107-114.
    • (1952) J R Stat Soc B , vol.14 , pp. 107-114
    • Good, I.J.1
  • 11
    • 0034292468 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Decomposition of the continuous ranked probability score for ensemble prediction systems
    • Hersbach H (2000) Decomposition of the continuous ranked probability score for ensemble prediction systems. Weather Forecasting 15: 559-570.
    • (2000) Weather Forecasting , vol.15 , pp. 559-570
    • Hersbach, H.1
  • 13
    • 0000423451 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • CMIP1 evaluation and intercomparison of coupled climate models
    • Lambert SJ, Boer GJ (2001) CMIP1 evaluation and intercomparison of coupled climate models. Clim Dyn 17: 83-106.
    • (2001) Clim Dyn , vol.17 , pp. 83-106
    • Lambert, S.J.1    Boer, G.J.2
  • 17
    • 33846282669 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • How reliable are climate models?
    • Räisänen J (2007) How reliable are climate models? Tellus 59A: 2-29.
    • (2007) Tellus , vol.59 A , pp. 2-29
    • Räisänen, J.1
  • 18
    • 0035428537 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A probability and decision-model analysis of a multi-model ensemble of climate change simulations
    • Räisänen J, Palmer TN (2001) A probability and decision-model analysis of a multi-model ensemble of climate change simulations. J Clim 14: 3212-3226.
    • (2001) J Clim , vol.14 , pp. 3212-3226
    • Räisänen, J.1    Palmer, T.N.2
  • 19
    • 77953023527 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Weighting of model results for improving best estimates of climate change
    • Räisänen J, Ruokolainen L, Ylhäisi J (2010) Weighting of model results for improving best estimates of climate change. Clim Dyn 35: 407-422.
    • (2010) Clim Dyn , vol.35 , pp. 407-422
    • Räisänen, J.1    Ruokolainen, L.2    Ylhäisi, J.3
  • 20
    • 0042323504 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Advances in understanding clouds from ISCCP
    • Rossow WB, Schiffer RA (1999) Advances in understanding clouds from ISCCP. Bull Am Meteor Soc 80: 2261-2288.
    • (1999) Bull Am Meteor Soc , vol.80 , pp. 2261-2288
    • Rossow, W.B.1    Schiffer, R.A.2
  • 21
    • 34547177691 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The use of the multimodel ensemble in probabilistic climate projections
    • Tebaldi C, Knutti R (2007) The use of the multimodel ensemble in probabilistic climate projections. Philos Trans R Soc Lond 365A: 2053-2075.
    • (2007) Philos Trans R Soc Lond , vol.365 A , pp. 2053-2075
    • Tebaldi, C.1    Knutti, R.2
  • 23
    • 50149103295 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Calculation of probability density functions for temperature and precipitation change under global warming
    • doi:10.1029/2007JD009254
    • Watterson IG (2008) Calculation of probability density functions for temperature and precipitation change under global warming. J Geophys Res 113: D12106. doi: 10. 1029/2007JD009254.
    • (2008) J Geophys Res , vol.113
    • Watterson, I.G.1
  • 24
    • 79953720869 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Distributions of decadal means of temperature and precipitation change under global warming
    • doi:10.1029/2010JD014502
    • Watterson IG, Whetton PH (2011) Distributions of decadal means of temperature and precipitation change under global warming. J Geophys Res 116: D07101. doi: 10. 1029/2010JD014502.
    • (2011) J Geophys Res , vol.116
    • Watterson, I.G.1    Whetton, P.H.2
  • 25
    • 77955603386 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Risks of model weighting in multimodel climate projections
    • Weigel AP, Knutti R, Liniger MA, Appenzeller C (2010) Risks of model weighting in multimodel climate projections. J Clim 23: 4175-4191.
    • (2010) J Clim , vol.23 , pp. 4175-4191
    • Weigel, A.P.1    Knutti, R.2    Liniger, M.A.3    Appenzeller, C.4
  • 26
    • 34548597161 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Assessment of the use of current climate patterns to evaluate regional enhanced greenhouse response patterns of climate models
    • doi:10.1029/2007GL030025
    • Whetton P, Macadam I, Batholds I, O'Grady J (2007) Assessment of the use of current climate patterns to evaluate regional enhanced greenhouse response patterns of climate models. Geophys Res Lett 34: L14701. doi: 10. 1029/2007GL030025.
    • (2007) Geophys Res Lett , vol.34
    • Whetton, P.1    Macadam, I.2    Batholds, I.3    O'Grady, J.4
  • 27
    • 77954130638 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Upgrades to the reliability ensemble averaging method for producing probabilistic climate-change projections
    • Xu Y, Gao X, Giorgi F (2010) Upgrades to the reliability ensemble averaging method for producing probabilistic climate-change projections. Clim Change 41: 61-81.
    • (2010) Clim Change , vol.41 , pp. 61-81
    • Xu, Y.1    Gao, X.2    Giorgi, F.3


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.