메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 15, Issue 3, 2012, Pages 473-488

Predicting and presenting plausible future scenarios of wind power production from numerical weather prediction systems: A qualitative ex ante evaluation for decision making

Author keywords

decision making; ex ante evaluation; large rapid changes; numerical weather prediction; NWP ensembles; NWP spatial fields; presentation format; ramps; wind power forecasting

Indexed keywords

DECISION MAKING; ELECTRIC POWER GENERATION; MEAN SQUARE ERROR; WIND POWER;

EID: 84859731828     PISSN: 10954244     EISSN: 10991824     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/we.485     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (13)

References (55)
  • 2
    • 84859703166 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • AWEFS. [Online]. (Accessed 19 October 2009)
    • Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO). AWEFS. [Online]. Available: http://www.aemo.com.au/electricityops/awefs.html (Accessed 19 October 2009).
  • 5
    • 84859731990 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. Integration of variable energy resources
    • November. Docket No. RM10-11-000
    • Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. Integration of variable energy resources. Notice of proposed rulemaking, November 2010. Docket No. RM10-11-000.
    • (2010) Notice of Proposed Rulemaking
  • 7
    • 33747600422 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Minimization of imbalance cost trading wind power on the short-term power market
    • DOI 10.1109/TPWRS.2006.879276
    • Matevosyan J, Söder L,. Minimization of imbalance cost trading wind power on the short-term power market. IEEE Transactions on Power systems 2006; 21: 1396-1404. (Pubitemid 44263534)
    • (2006) IEEE Transactions on Power Systems , vol.21 , Issue.3 , pp. 1396-1404
    • Matevosyan, J.1    Soder, L.2
  • 8
    • 80052737226 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • High penetration wind generation impacts on spot prices in the Australian National Electricity Market
    • in press
    • Cutler NJ, Boerema N, MacGill IF, Outhred HR,. High penetration wind generation impacts on spot prices in the Australian National Electricity Market. Energy Policy 2011 (in press).
    • (2011) Energy Policy
    • Cutler, N.J.1    Boerema, N.2    MacGill, I.F.3    Outhred, H.R.4
  • 9
    • 84859703167 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Wind and electricity markets: A case study of Texas
    • in press
    • Baldick R,. Wind and electricity markets: a case study of Texas. IEEE Systems Journal 2011 (in press).
    • (2011) IEEE Systems Journal
    • Baldick, R.1
  • 10
    • 78650353791 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • GE Energy Prepared for the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, May
    • GE Energy. Western wind and solar integration study. Prepared for the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, May 2010.
    • (2010) Western Wind and Solar Integration Study
  • 12
    • 84859703168 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • AWS Truewind's final report for the Alberta forecasting pilot project
    • AWS Truewind. In. AWS Truewind: Albany, NY, [Online]. Available: (Accessed 21 June 2011).
    • AWS Truewind. AWS Truewind's final report for the Alberta forecasting pilot project. In Wind Power Forecasting PILOT Project. AWS Truewind: Albany, NY, 2008; 66. [Online]. Available: (Accessed 21 June 2011).
    • (2008) Wind Power Forecasting PILOT Project , pp. 66
  • 13
    • 70349375070 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Final report - Wind power forecasting pilot project in Alberta, Canada
    • In. Energy & Meteo Systems: Oldenburg, Germany, [Online]. Available: (Accessed 21 June 2011).
    • Focken U, Lange M,. Final report - wind power forecasting pilot project in Alberta, Canada. In Wind Power Forecasting PILOT Project. Energy & Meteo Systems: Oldenburg, Germany, 2008; 21. [Online]. Available: (Accessed 21 June 2011).
    • (2008) Wind Power Forecasting PILOT Project , pp. 21
    • Focken, U.1    Lange, M.2
  • 14
    • 84859727095 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • AESO wind power forecasting PILOT project: Final project report
    • In. Weprog: Ebberup, Denmark, Available: (Accessed).
    • Jørgensen J, Möhrlen C,. AESO wind power forecasting PILOT project: final project report. In Wind Power Forecasting PILOT Project. Weprog: Ebberup, Denmark, 2008; 102. Available: (Accessed).
    • (2008) Wind Power Forecasting PILOT Project , pp. 102
    • Jørgensen, J.1    Möhrlen, C.2
  • 18
    • 77953594961 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Verification of mesoscale NWP forecasts of abrupt wind changes
    • The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne, Australia, [Online]. (Accessed 21 June 2011)
    • Huang X, Mills GA,. Verification of mesoscale NWP forecasts of abrupt wind changes. CAWCR Technical Report No. 008, The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne, Australia, 2008. [Online]. Available: http://www.cawcr.gov.au/publications/technicalreports/CTR-008.pdf (Accessed 21 June 2011).
    • (2008) CAWCR Technical Report , vol.8
    • Huang, X.1    Mills, G.A.2
  • 19
    • 70349336962 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Characterizing future large, rapid changes in aggregated wind power using numerical weather prediction spatial fields
    • DOI: 10.1002/we.312
    • Cutler NJ, Outhred HR, MacGill IF, Kay MJ, Kepert JD,. Characterizing future large, rapid changes in aggregated wind power using numerical weather prediction spatial fields. Wind Energy 2009; 12: 542-555. DOI: 10.1002/we.312
    • (2009) Wind Energy , vol.12 , pp. 542-555
    • Cutler, N.J.1    Outhred, H.R.2    MacGill, I.F.3    Kay, M.J.4    Kepert, J.D.5
  • 23
    • 84859721618 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • [Online]. (Accessed 25 February 2011)
    • The ANEMOS.plus project. [Online]. Available: http://www.anemos-plus.eu/ (Accessed 25 February 2011).
    • The ANEMOS.plus Project
  • 24
    • 74149093707 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • From probabilistic forecasts to statistical scenarios of short-term wind power production
    • Pinson P, Papaefthymiou G, Klockl B, Nielsen HAa, Madsen H,. From probabilistic forecasts to statistical scenarios of short-term wind power production. Wind Energy 2009; 12: 51-62.
    • (2009) Wind Energy , vol.12 , pp. 51-62
    • Pinson, P.1    Papaefthymiou, G.2    Klockl, B.3    Nielsen, H.4    Madsen, H.5
  • 25
    • 0030102876 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Good probabilistic forecasters: The 'consumer's' perspective
    • DOI 10.1016/0169-2070(95)00636-2
    • Yates JF, Price PC, Lee JW, Ramirez J,. Good probabilistic forecasters: the 'consumer's' perspective. International Journal of Forecasting 1996; 12: 41-56. (Pubitemid 126168640)
    • (1996) International Journal of Forecasting , vol.12 , Issue.1 , pp. 41-56
    • Yates, J.F.1    Price, P.C.2    Lee, J.-W.3    Ramirez, J.4
  • 26
    • 0027706813 scopus 로고
    • What is a good forecast? An essay on the nature of goodness in weather forecasting
    • DOI: 10.1175/1520-0434(1993)008<281
    • Murphy AH,. What is a good forecast? An essay on the nature of goodness in weather forecasting. Weather and Forecasting 1993; 8: 281-293. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0434(1993)008<281
    • (1993) Weather and Forecasting , vol.8 , pp. 281-293
    • Murphy, A.H.1
  • 27
    • 78649658853 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Verification of wind forecasts for a set of experimental DMI-HIRLAM ensemble experiments
    • Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, [Online]. (Accessed 21 June 2011)
    • Feddersen HS, Sattler K,. Verification of wind forecasts for a set of experimental DMI-HIRLAM ensemble experiments. DMI Scientific Report 05-01, Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, 2005. [Online]. Available: http://hirlam.org/publications/NewsLetters/47/ensverif.pdf (Accessed 21 June 2011).
    • (2005) DMI Scientific Report 05-01
    • Feddersen, H.S.1    Sattler, K.2
  • 28
    • 67650062041 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Wind power ensemble forecasting using wind speed and direction ensembles from ECMWF or NCEP
    • In. Risø National Laboratory: Roskilde, Denmark, [Online]. Available: (Accessed 21 June 2011).
    • Nielsen HA, Madsen H, Nielsen TS, Badger J, Giebel G, Landberg L, Sattler K, Feddersen H,. Wind power ensemble forecasting using wind speed and direction ensembles from ECMWF or NCEP. In Ensemble-Forecasts for Wind Power. Risø National Laboratory: Roskilde, Denmark, 2005; 30. [Online]. Available: (Accessed 21 June 2011).
    • (2005) Ensemble-Forecasts for Wind Power , pp. 30
    • Nielsen, H.A.1    Madsen, H.2    Nielsen, T.S.3    Badger, J.4    Giebel, G.5    Landberg, L.6    Sattler, K.7    Feddersen, H.8
  • 29
    • 33645031359 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Standardizing the performance evaluation of short-term wind power prediction models
    • DOI: 10.1260/030952405776234599
    • Madsen H, Pinson P, Kariniotakis G, Nielsen HAa, Nielsen TS,. Standardizing the performance evaluation of short-term wind power prediction models. Wind Engineering 2005; 29: 475-489. DOI: 10.1260/030952405776234599
    • (2005) Wind Engineering , vol.29 , pp. 475-489
    • Madsen, H.1    Pinson, P.2    Kariniotakis, G.3    Nielsen, H.4    Nielsen, T.S.5
  • 30
    • 0000109477 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Economic and statistical measures of forecast accuracy
    • Granger CWJ, Pesaran MH,. Economic and statistical measures of forecast accuracy. Journal of Forecasting 2000; 19: 537-560.
    • (2000) Journal of Forecasting , vol.19 , pp. 537-560
    • Granger, C.W.J.1    Pesaran, M.H.2
  • 31
    • 0030391632 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The complex relationship between forecast skill and forecast value: A real-world analysis
    • Roebber PJ, Bosart LF,. The complex relationship between forecast skill and forecast value: a real-world analysis. Weather and Forecasting 1996; 11: 544-559.
    • (1996) Weather and Forecasting , vol.11 , pp. 544-559
    • Roebber, P.J.1    Bosart, L.F.2
  • 32
    • 79960784244 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Good or bad wind power forecasts: A relative concept
    • in press. DOI: 10.1002/we.444.
    • Bessa RJ, Miranda V, Botterud A, Wang J,. Good or bad wind power forecasts: a relative concept. Wind Energy 2010; in press. DOI: 10.1002/we.444.
    • (2010) Wind Energy
    • Bessa, R.J.1    Miranda, V.2    Botterud, A.3    Wang, J.4
  • 33
    • 0035473127 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Measures of skill and value of ensemble prediction systems, their interrelationship and the effect of ensemble size
    • DOI 10.1256/smsqj.57714
    • Richardson DS,. Measures of skill and value of ensemble prediction systems, their interrelationship and the effect of ensemble size. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 2001; 127: 2473-2489. (Pubitemid 33030862)
    • (2001) Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society , vol.127 , Issue.577 , pp. 2473-2489
    • Richardson, D.S.1
  • 34
    • 38249014371 scopus 로고
    • Fundamental aspects of forecasting in organizations
    • DOI: 10.1016/0169-2070(92)90025-5
    • Schultz RL,. Fundamental aspects of forecasting in organizations. International Journal of Forecasting 1992; 7: 409-411. DOI: 10.1016/0169- 2070(92)90025-5
    • (1992) International Journal of Forecasting , vol.7 , pp. 409-411
    • Schultz, R.L.1
  • 36
    • 63549130930 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Combined hydro-wind generation bids in a pool-based electricity market
    • DOI: 10.1016/j.epsr.2009.01.002
    • Angarita JL, Usaola J, Martínez-Crespo J,. Combined hydro-wind generation bids in a pool-based electricity market. Electric Power Systems Research 2009; 79: 1038-1046. DOI: 10.1016/j.epsr.2009.01.002
    • (2009) Electric Power Systems Research , vol.79 , pp. 1038-1046
    • Angarita, J.L.1    Usaola, J.2    Martínez-Crespo, J.3
  • 38
    • 34548047478 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Trading wind generation from short-term probabilistic forecasts of wind power
    • DOI 10.1109/TPWRS.2007.901117
    • Pinson P, Chevallier C, Kariniotakis GN,. Trading wind generation from short-term probabilistic forecasts of wind power. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 2007; 22: 1148-1156. DOI: 10.1109/TPWRS.2007.901117 (Pubitemid 47278373)
    • (2007) IEEE Transactions on Power Systems , vol.22 , Issue.3 , pp. 1148-1156
    • Pinson, P.1    Chevallier, C.2    Kariniotakis, G.N.3
  • 39
    • 49249095955 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Security-constrained unit commitment with volatile wind power generation
    • DOI: 10.1109/TPWRS.2008.926719
    • Wang J, Shahidehpour M, Zuyi L,. Security-constrained unit commitment with volatile wind power generation. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 2008; 23: 1319-1327. DOI: 10.1109/TPWRS.2008.926719
    • (2008) IEEE Transactions on Power Systems , vol.23 , pp. 1319-1327
    • Wang, J.1    Shahidehpour, M.2    Zuyi, L.3
  • 40
    • 67349129209 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Operational impacts of wind generation on California power systems
    • DOI: 10.1109/TPWRS.2009.2016364
    • Makarov YV, Loutan C, Jian M, de Mello P,. Operational impacts of wind generation on California power systems. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 2009; 24: 1039-1050. DOI: 10.1109/TPWRS.2009.2016364
    • (2009) IEEE Transactions on Power Systems , vol.24 , pp. 1039-1050
    • Makarov, Y.V.1    Loutan, C.2    Jian, M.3    De Mello, P.4
  • 41
    • 43849089442 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Stochastic security for operations planning with significant wind power generation
    • DOI 10.1109/TPWRS.2008.919318
    • Bouffard F, Galiana FD,. Stochastic security for operations planning with significant wind power generation. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 2008; 23: 306-316. DOI: 10.1109/TPWRS.2008.919318 (Pubitemid 351695808)
    • (2008) IEEE Transactions on Power Systems , vol.23 , Issue.2 , pp. 306-316
    • Bouffard, F.1    Galiana, F.D.2
  • 42
    • 67349225799 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Unit commitment for systems with significant wind penetration
    • DOI: 10.1109/TPWRS.2009.2016470
    • Tuohy A, Meibom P, Denny E, O'Malley M,. Unit commitment for systems with significant wind penetration. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 2009; 24: 592-601. DOI: 10.1109/TPWRS.2009.2016470
    • (2009) IEEE Transactions on Power Systems , vol.24 , pp. 592-601
    • Tuohy, A.1    Meibom, P.2    Denny, E.3    O'Malley, M.4
  • 43
    • 34548047931 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Improving forecast communication: Linguistic and cultural considerations
    • DOI 10.1175/BAMS-88-7-1033
    • Pennesi K,. Improving forecast communication - linguistic and cultural considerations. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2007; 88: 1033-1044. (Pubitemid 47278301)
    • (2007) Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society , vol.88 , Issue.7 , pp. 1033-1044
    • Pennesi, K.1
  • 47
    • 0001852251 scopus 로고
    • Visualizing uncertain information
    • MacEachren AM,. Visualizing uncertain information. Cartographic Perspective 1992; 13: 10-19.
    • (1992) Cartographic Perspective , vol.13 , pp. 10-19
    • MacEachren, A.M.1
  • 51
    • 85049942502 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Eastern wind integration and transmission study (EWITS)
    • EnerNex Corporation. [Online]. (Accessed 21 June 2011)
    • EnerNex Corporation. Eastern wind integration and transmission study (EWITS). Report for the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2010; 242. [Online]. Available: http://www.nrel.gov/wind/systemsintegration/ewits.html (Accessed 21 June 2011).
    • (2010) Report for the National Renewable Energy Laboratory , vol.242
  • 52
    • 19144369129 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the uncertainty of wind power predictions - Analysis of the forecast accuracy and statistical distribution of errors
    • DOI 10.1115/1.1862266
    • Lange M,. On the uncertainty of wind power predictions - analysis of the forecast accuracy and statistical distribution of errors. Journal of Solar Energy Engineering 2005; 127: 177-184. DOI: 10.1115/1.1862266 (Pubitemid 40715337)
    • (2005) Journal of Solar Energy Engineering, Transactions of the ASME , vol.127 , Issue.2 , pp. 177-184
    • Lange, M.1
  • 55
    • 0033208526 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Tubing: An alternative to clustering for the classification of ensemble forecasts
    • Atger F,. Tubing: an alternative to clustering for the classification of ensemble forecasts. Weather and Forecasting 1999; 14: 741-757. (Pubitemid 30065845)
    • (1999) Weather and Forecasting , vol.14 , Issue.5 , pp. 741-757
    • Atger, F.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.