메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 2, Issue 1, 2008, Pages 24-47

The Effect of Uncertainty Visualizations on Decision Making in Weather Forecasting

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords


EID: 84993811986     PISSN: 15553434     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1518/155534308X284354     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (54)

References (42)
  • 1
    • 0041710569 scopus 로고
    • Quantification of uncertainty in fire-weather forecasts: Some results of operational and experimental forecasting programs
    • Brown B. G. Murphy A. H. (1987). Quantification of uncertainty in fire-weather forecasts: Some results of operational and experimental forecasting programs. Weather and Forecasting, 2, 190-205.
    • (1987) Weather and Forecasting , vol.2 , pp. 190-205
    • Brown, B.G.1    Murphy, A.H.2
  • 2
    • 0000935059 scopus 로고
    • Violations of the betweenness axiom and nonlinearity in probability
    • Camerer C. Ho T. (1994). Violations of the betweenness axiom and nonlinearity in probability. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 8, 167-196.
    • (1994) Journal of Risk and Uncertainty , vol.8 , pp. 167-196
    • Camerer, C.1    Ho, T.2
  • 3
    • 0041934523 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Incorporating the irrelevant: Anchors in judgments of belief and value
    • Gilovich T., Griffin D., Kahneman D.,(Eds. Cambridge, UK Cambridge University Press
    • Chapman G. B. Johnson E. J. (2002). Incorporating the irrelevant: Anchors in judgments of belief and value. In Gilovich T., Griffin D., Kahneman D.,(Eds.), Heuristics and biases: The psychology of intuitive judgment (pp. 120-138). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
    • (2002) Heuristics and biases: The psychology of intuitive judgment , pp. 120-138
    • Chapman, G.B.1    Johnson, E.J.2
  • 5
    • 20444502990 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Diversity in interpretations of probability: Implications for weather forecasting
    • deElia R. Laprise R. (2005). Diversity in interpretations of probability: Implications for weather forecasting. American Meteorological Society, 133, 1129-1143.
    • (2005) American Meteorological Society , vol.133 , pp. 1129-1143
    • deElia, R.1    Laprise, R.2
  • 7
    • 23644440946 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A 30% chance of rain tomorrow”: How does the public understand probabilistic weather forecasts
    • Gigerenzer G. Hertwig R. van den Broek E. Fasolo F. Katsikopoulos K. V. (2005). “A 30% chance of rain tomorrow”: How does the public understand probabilistic weather forecasts? Risk Analysis, 25, 623-630.
    • (2005) Risk Analysis , vol.25 , pp. 623-630
    • Gigerenzer, G.1    Hertwig, R.2    van den Broek, E.3    Fasolo, F.4    Katsikopoulos, K.V.5
  • 8
    • 26844438590 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Weather forecasting with ensemble methods
    • Gneiting T. Raftery A. E. (2005). Weather forecasting with ensemble methods. Science, 310, 248-249.
    • (2005) Science , vol.310 , pp. 248-249
    • Gneiting, T.1    Raftery, A.E.2
  • 9
    • 0033071923 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the form of the probability weighting function
    • Gonzalez R. Wu G. (1999). On the form of the probability weighting function. Cognitive Psychology, 38, 129-166.
    • (1999) Cognitive Psychology , vol.38 , pp. 129-166
    • Gonzalez, R.1    Wu, G.2
  • 10
  • 13
    • 34848917682 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Mental models and thought
    • Holyoak J., Morrison R. G.,(Eds. New York Cambridge University Press
    • Johnson-Laird P. N. (2005). Mental models and thought. In Holyoak J., Morrison R. G.,(Eds.), The Cambridge handbook of thinking and reasoning (pp. 185-208). New York: Cambridge University Press.
    • (2005) The Cambridge handbook of thinking and reasoning , pp. 185-208
    • Johnson-Laird, P.N.1
  • 14
    • 84901075070 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Strategies in naturalistic decision-making: A cognitive task analysis of naval weather forecasting
    • Schraagen J. M.,(Ed. Burlington, VT Ashgate Publishing. Available at http://www.stat.washington.edu/MURI/
    • Joslyn S. Jones D. Strategies in naturalistic decision-making: A cognitive task analysis of naval weather forecasting. In Schraagen J. M.,(Ed.), Naturalistic decision making and macrocognition. Burlington, VT: Ashgate Publishing. Available at http://www.stat.washington.edu/MURI/.
    • Naturalistic decision making and macrocognition
    • Joslyn, S.1    Jones, D.2
  • 15
  • 16
    • 0344036152 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Optimization of value of aerodrome forecasts
    • Keith R. (2003). Optimization of value of aerodrome forecasts. Weather and Forecasting, 18, 808-824.
    • (2003) Weather and Forecasting , vol.18 , pp. 808-824
    • Keith, R.1
  • 17
    • 0028501303 scopus 로고
    • Effects of graphic and verbal probability information on command decision making
    • Kirschenbaum S. S. Arruda J. E. (1994). Effects of graphic and verbal probability information on command decision making. Human Factors, 36, 406-418.
    • (1994) Human Factors , vol.36 , pp. 406-418
    • Kirschenbaum, S.S.1    Arruda, J.E.2
  • 19
    • 0038266698 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The calibration of expert judgment: Heuristics and biases beyond the laboratory
    • Gilovich T., Griffin D., Kahneman D.,(Eds. New York Cambridge University Press
    • Koehler D. J. Brenner L. Griffin D. (2002). The calibration of expert judgment: Heuristics and biases beyond the laboratory. In Gilovich T., Griffin D., Kahneman D.,(Eds.), Heuristics and biases: The psychology of intuitive judgment (pp. 686-715). New York: Cambridge University Press.
    • (2002) Heuristics and biases: The psychology of intuitive judgment , pp. 686-715
    • Koehler, D.J.1    Brenner, L.2    Griffin, D.3
  • 22
    • 84970123771 scopus 로고
    • Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980
    • Kahneman D., Slovic P., Tversky A.,(Eds. Cambridge, UK Cambridge University Press
    • Lichtenstein S. Fischhoff B. Phillips L. D. (1982). Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980. In Kahneman D., Slovic P., Tversky A.,(Eds.), Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 306-334). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
    • (1982) Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases , pp. 306-334
    • Lichtenstein, S.1    Fischhoff, B.2    Phillips, L.D.3
  • 23
    • 0001852251 scopus 로고
    • Visualizing uncertain information
    • MacEachren A. M. (1992). Visualizing uncertain information. Cartographic Perspectives, 13, 10-19.
    • (1992) Cartographic Perspectives , vol.13 , pp. 10-19
    • MacEachren, A.M.1
  • 24
    • 0344654895 scopus 로고
    • Credible interval temperature forecasting: Some experimental results
    • Murphy A. H. Winkler R. L. (1974a). Credible interval temperature forecasting: Some experimental results. Monthly Weather Review, 162, 784-794.
    • (1974) Monthly Weather Review , vol.162 , pp. 784-794
    • Murphy, A.H.1    Winkler, R.L.2
  • 25
    • 0000488291 scopus 로고
    • Subjective probability forecasting experiments in meteorology: Some preliminary results
    • Murphy A. H. Winkler R. L. (1974b). Subjective probability forecasting experiments in meteorology: Some preliminary results. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 55, 1206-1216.
    • (1974) Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society , vol.55 , pp. 1206-1216
    • Murphy, A.H.1    Winkler, R.L.2
  • 26
    • 0002958261 scopus 로고
    • Can weather forecasters formulate reliable forecasts of precipitation and temperature
    • Murphy A. H. Winkler R. L. (1977). Can weather forecasters formulate reliable forecasts of precipitation and temperature? National Weather Digest, 2(2), 2-9.
    • (1977) National Weather Digest , vol.2 , Issue.2 , pp. 2-9
    • Murphy, A.H.1    Winkler, R.L.2
  • 28
  • 31
    • 0344604472 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Nine fallacies of floods
    • Pielke R. A. Jr. (1999). Nine fallacies of floods. Climatic Change, 42, 413-438.
    • (1999) Climatic Change , vol.42 , pp. 413-438
    • Pielke, R.A.1
  • 33
    • 0034323391 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Working memory, metacognitive uncertainty and belief bias in syllogistic reasoning
    • Quayle J. D. Ball L. J. (2000). Working memory, metacognitive uncertainty and belief bias in syllogistic reasoning. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 53A, 1202-1223.
    • (2000) Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology , vol.53A , pp. 1202-1223
    • Quayle, J.D.1    Ball, L.J.2
  • 35
    • 33645638664 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A laboratory study of the benefits of including uncertainty information in weather forecasts
    • Roulston M. S. Bolton G. E. Kleit A. N. Sears-Collins A. L. (2006). A laboratory study of the benefits of including uncertainty information in weather forecasts. Weather and Forecasting, 21, 116-123.
    • (2006) Weather and Forecasting , vol.21 , pp. 116-123
    • Roulston, M.S.1    Bolton, G.E.2    Kleit, A.N.3    Sears-Collins, A.L.4
  • 36
    • 74049121475 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Retrieved June 25, 2007, from http://www.schneier.com/essay-155.html
    • Schneier B. (2007). The psychology of security. Retrieved June 25, 2007, from http://www.schneier.com/essay-155.html.
    • (2007) The psychology of security
    • Schneier, B.1
  • 37
    • 0004027813 scopus 로고
    • New Haven, CT Yale University Press
    • Simon H. A. (1979). Models of thought. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
    • (1979) Models of thought
    • Simon, H.A.1
  • 38
    • 0023324565 scopus 로고
    • Perception of risk
    • Slovic P. (1987). Perception of risk. Science, 236, 280-285.
    • (1987) Science , vol.236 , pp. 280-285
    • Slovic, P.1
  • 39
    • 0016264378 scopus 로고
    • Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases
    • Tversky A. Kahneman D. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science, 185, 1124-1131.
    • (1974) Science , vol.185 , pp. 1124-1131
    • Tversky, A.1    Kahneman, D.2
  • 40
    • 31744450082 scopus 로고
    • Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representations of uncertainty
    • Tversky A. Kahneman D. (1992). Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representations of uncertainty. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 5, 297-323.
    • (1992) Journal of Risk and Uncertainty , vol.5 , pp. 297-323
    • Tversky, A.1    Kahneman, D.2
  • 41
    • 84985846653 scopus 로고
    • Cognitive fit: A theory-based analysis of the graphs versus tables literature
    • Vessey I. (1991). Cognitive fit: A theory-based analysis of the graphs versus tables literature. Decision Sciences, 22, 219-240.
    • (1991) Decision Sciences , vol.22 , pp. 219-240
    • Vessey, I.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.