-
1
-
-
0041710569
-
Quantification of uncertainty in fire-weather forecasts: Some results of operational and experimental forecasting programs
-
Brown B. G. Murphy A. H. (1987). Quantification of uncertainty in fire-weather forecasts: Some results of operational and experimental forecasting programs. Weather and Forecasting, 2, 190-205.
-
(1987)
Weather and Forecasting
, vol.2
, pp. 190-205
-
-
Brown, B.G.1
Murphy, A.H.2
-
2
-
-
0000935059
-
Violations of the betweenness axiom and nonlinearity in probability
-
Camerer C. Ho T. (1994). Violations of the betweenness axiom and nonlinearity in probability. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 8, 167-196.
-
(1994)
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty
, vol.8
, pp. 167-196
-
-
Camerer, C.1
Ho, T.2
-
3
-
-
0041934523
-
Incorporating the irrelevant: Anchors in judgments of belief and value
-
Gilovich T., Griffin D., Kahneman D.,(Eds. Cambridge, UK Cambridge University Press
-
Chapman G. B. Johnson E. J. (2002). Incorporating the irrelevant: Anchors in judgments of belief and value. In Gilovich T., Griffin D., Kahneman D.,(Eds.), Heuristics and biases: The psychology of intuitive judgment (pp. 120-138). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
-
(2002)
Heuristics and biases: The psychology of intuitive judgment
, pp. 120-138
-
-
Chapman, G.B.1
Johnson, E.J.2
-
5
-
-
20444502990
-
Diversity in interpretations of probability: Implications for weather forecasting
-
deElia R. Laprise R. (2005). Diversity in interpretations of probability: Implications for weather forecasting. American Meteorological Society, 133, 1129-1143.
-
(2005)
American Meteorological Society
, vol.133
, pp. 1129-1143
-
-
deElia, R.1
Laprise, R.2
-
8
-
-
26844438590
-
Weather forecasting with ensemble methods
-
Gneiting T. Raftery A. E. (2005). Weather forecasting with ensemble methods. Science, 310, 248-249.
-
(2005)
Science
, vol.310
, pp. 248-249
-
-
Gneiting, T.1
Raftery, A.E.2
-
9
-
-
0033071923
-
On the form of the probability weighting function
-
Gonzalez R. Wu G. (1999). On the form of the probability weighting function. Cognitive Psychology, 38, 129-166.
-
(1999)
Cognitive Psychology
, vol.38
, pp. 129-166
-
-
Gonzalez, R.1
Wu, G.2
-
13
-
-
34848917682
-
Mental models and thought
-
Holyoak J., Morrison R. G.,(Eds. New York Cambridge University Press
-
Johnson-Laird P. N. (2005). Mental models and thought. In Holyoak J., Morrison R. G.,(Eds.), The Cambridge handbook of thinking and reasoning (pp. 185-208). New York: Cambridge University Press.
-
(2005)
The Cambridge handbook of thinking and reasoning
, pp. 185-208
-
-
Johnson-Laird, P.N.1
-
14
-
-
84901075070
-
Strategies in naturalistic decision-making: A cognitive task analysis of naval weather forecasting
-
Schraagen J. M.,(Ed. Burlington, VT Ashgate Publishing. Available at http://www.stat.washington.edu/MURI/
-
Joslyn S. Jones D. Strategies in naturalistic decision-making: A cognitive task analysis of naval weather forecasting. In Schraagen J. M.,(Ed.), Naturalistic decision making and macrocognition. Burlington, VT: Ashgate Publishing. Available at http://www.stat.washington.edu/MURI/.
-
Naturalistic decision making and macrocognition
-
-
Joslyn, S.1
Jones, D.2
-
16
-
-
0344036152
-
Optimization of value of aerodrome forecasts
-
Keith R. (2003). Optimization of value of aerodrome forecasts. Weather and Forecasting, 18, 808-824.
-
(2003)
Weather and Forecasting
, vol.18
, pp. 808-824
-
-
Keith, R.1
-
17
-
-
0028501303
-
Effects of graphic and verbal probability information on command decision making
-
Kirschenbaum S. S. Arruda J. E. (1994). Effects of graphic and verbal probability information on command decision making. Human Factors, 36, 406-418.
-
(1994)
Human Factors
, vol.36
, pp. 406-418
-
-
Kirschenbaum, S.S.1
Arruda, J.E.2
-
19
-
-
0038266698
-
The calibration of expert judgment: Heuristics and biases beyond the laboratory
-
Gilovich T., Griffin D., Kahneman D.,(Eds. New York Cambridge University Press
-
Koehler D. J. Brenner L. Griffin D. (2002). The calibration of expert judgment: Heuristics and biases beyond the laboratory. In Gilovich T., Griffin D., Kahneman D.,(Eds.), Heuristics and biases: The psychology of intuitive judgment (pp. 686-715). New York: Cambridge University Press.
-
(2002)
Heuristics and biases: The psychology of intuitive judgment
, pp. 686-715
-
-
Koehler, D.J.1
Brenner, L.2
Griffin, D.3
-
22
-
-
84970123771
-
Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980
-
Kahneman D., Slovic P., Tversky A.,(Eds. Cambridge, UK Cambridge University Press
-
Lichtenstein S. Fischhoff B. Phillips L. D. (1982). Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980. In Kahneman D., Slovic P., Tversky A.,(Eds.), Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 306-334). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
-
(1982)
Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases
, pp. 306-334
-
-
Lichtenstein, S.1
Fischhoff, B.2
Phillips, L.D.3
-
23
-
-
0001852251
-
Visualizing uncertain information
-
MacEachren A. M. (1992). Visualizing uncertain information. Cartographic Perspectives, 13, 10-19.
-
(1992)
Cartographic Perspectives
, vol.13
, pp. 10-19
-
-
MacEachren, A.M.1
-
24
-
-
0344654895
-
Credible interval temperature forecasting: Some experimental results
-
Murphy A. H. Winkler R. L. (1974a). Credible interval temperature forecasting: Some experimental results. Monthly Weather Review, 162, 784-794.
-
(1974)
Monthly Weather Review
, vol.162
, pp. 784-794
-
-
Murphy, A.H.1
Winkler, R.L.2
-
25
-
-
0000488291
-
Subjective probability forecasting experiments in meteorology: Some preliminary results
-
Murphy A. H. Winkler R. L. (1974b). Subjective probability forecasting experiments in meteorology: Some preliminary results. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 55, 1206-1216.
-
(1974)
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
, vol.55
, pp. 1206-1216
-
-
Murphy, A.H.1
Winkler, R.L.2
-
26
-
-
0002958261
-
Can weather forecasters formulate reliable forecasts of precipitation and temperature
-
Murphy A. H. Winkler R. L. (1977). Can weather forecasters formulate reliable forecasts of precipitation and temperature? National Weather Digest, 2(2), 2-9.
-
(1977)
National Weather Digest
, vol.2
, Issue.2
, pp. 2-9
-
-
Murphy, A.H.1
Winkler, R.L.2
-
28
-
-
0001093166
-
Cognitive illusions, heuristics, and climate prediction
-
Nicholls N. (1999). Cognitive illusions, heuristics, and climate prediction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 80, 1385-1397.
-
(1999)
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
, vol.80
, pp. 1385-1397
-
-
Nicholls, N.1
-
31
-
-
0344604472
-
Nine fallacies of floods
-
Pielke R. A. Jr. (1999). Nine fallacies of floods. Climatic Change, 42, 413-438.
-
(1999)
Climatic Change
, vol.42
, pp. 413-438
-
-
Pielke, R.A.1
-
32
-
-
2142656148
-
-
(Tech. Report No. AL/HR-CR-1997-0003 for the Air Force Material Command, Armstrong Laboratory, Human Resources Directorate, Brooks Air Force Base, TX). Fairborn, OH Klein Associates
-
Pliske R. M. Klinger D. Hutton R. Crandall B. Knight B. Klein G. (1997). Understanding skilled weather forecasting: Implications for training and the design of forecasting tools (Tech. Report No. AL/HR-CR-1997-0003 for the Air Force Material Command, Armstrong Laboratory, Human Resources Directorate, Brooks Air Force Base, TX). Fairborn, OH: Klein Associates.
-
(1997)
Understanding skilled weather forecasting: Implications for training and the design of forecasting tools
-
-
Pliske, R.M.1
Klinger, D.2
Hutton, R.3
Crandall, B.4
Knight, B.5
Klein, G.6
-
33
-
-
0034323391
-
Working memory, metacognitive uncertainty and belief bias in syllogistic reasoning
-
Quayle J. D. Ball L. J. (2000). Working memory, metacognitive uncertainty and belief bias in syllogistic reasoning. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 53A, 1202-1223.
-
(2000)
Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology
, vol.53A
, pp. 1202-1223
-
-
Quayle, J.D.1
Ball, L.J.2
-
35
-
-
33645638664
-
A laboratory study of the benefits of including uncertainty information in weather forecasts
-
Roulston M. S. Bolton G. E. Kleit A. N. Sears-Collins A. L. (2006). A laboratory study of the benefits of including uncertainty information in weather forecasts. Weather and Forecasting, 21, 116-123.
-
(2006)
Weather and Forecasting
, vol.21
, pp. 116-123
-
-
Roulston, M.S.1
Bolton, G.E.2
Kleit, A.N.3
Sears-Collins, A.L.4
-
36
-
-
74049121475
-
-
Retrieved June 25, 2007, from http://www.schneier.com/essay-155.html
-
Schneier B. (2007). The psychology of security. Retrieved June 25, 2007, from http://www.schneier.com/essay-155.html.
-
(2007)
The psychology of security
-
-
Schneier, B.1
-
37
-
-
0004027813
-
-
New Haven, CT Yale University Press
-
Simon H. A. (1979). Models of thought. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
-
(1979)
Models of thought
-
-
Simon, H.A.1
-
38
-
-
0023324565
-
Perception of risk
-
Slovic P. (1987). Perception of risk. Science, 236, 280-285.
-
(1987)
Science
, vol.236
, pp. 280-285
-
-
Slovic, P.1
-
39
-
-
0016264378
-
Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases
-
Tversky A. Kahneman D. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science, 185, 1124-1131.
-
(1974)
Science
, vol.185
, pp. 1124-1131
-
-
Tversky, A.1
Kahneman, D.2
-
40
-
-
31744450082
-
Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representations of uncertainty
-
Tversky A. Kahneman D. (1992). Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representations of uncertainty. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 5, 297-323.
-
(1992)
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty
, vol.5
, pp. 297-323
-
-
Tversky, A.1
Kahneman, D.2
-
41
-
-
84985846653
-
Cognitive fit: A theory-based analysis of the graphs versus tables literature
-
Vessey I. (1991). Cognitive fit: A theory-based analysis of the graphs versus tables literature. Decision Sciences, 22, 219-240.
-
(1991)
Decision Sciences
, vol.22
, pp. 219-240
-
-
Vessey, I.1
|