Forecasting uncertainty related to ramps of wind power production

European Wind Energy Conference and Exhibition 2010, EWEC 2010

Volumn 2, Issue , 2010, Pages 1099-1107

  Bossavy, Arthur ^a   Girard, Robin ^a   Kariniotakis, Georges ^a  

^a PSL RESEARCH UNIVERSITY   (France)

Author keywords

Forecasts ensemble; Phase errors; Ramps; Wind power forecast

Indexed keywords

CONFIDENCE INTERVAL; CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENTS; FORECASTS ENSEMBLE; PHASE ERROR; POWER OUT PUT; PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS; RAMPS; TEMPORAL SCALE; WIND FARM; WIND POWER FORECAST; WIND POWER INTEGRATIONS; WIND POWER PRODUCTION;

ELECTRIC UTILITIES; EXHIBITIONS; WIND POWER;

WEATHER FORECASTING;

EID: 84870004416     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Conference Proceeding    
DOI: None     Document Type: Conference Paper

References (23)

1. J.M. Angarita and J. Usaola. Combining hydrogeneration and wind energy biddings and operation on spot electricity markets. Electric Power Systems Research, 77(5-6):393-400, 2007.
2. K. Bradford, R. Carpenter, and B. Shaw. Forecasting southern plains wind ramp events using the wrf model at 3-km.
3. J.B. Bremnes. A comparison of a few statistical models for making quantile wind power forecasts. Wind Energy, 9(1-2):3-11, 2006.
4. G. Brier. Verification of forecast expressed in terms of probability. Monthly weather review, 78:1-3, 1950.
5. E. Castronuovo and J. PecasLopes. On the optimization of the daily operation of a wind-hydro power plant. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 19(3):1599-1606, 2004.
6. Alexandre Costa, Antonio Crespo, Jorge Navarro, Gil Lizcano, Henrik Madsen, and Everaldo Feitosa. A review on the young history of the wind power short-term prediction. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 12(6):1725 - 1744, 2008.
7. Nicholas Cutler, Merlinde Kay, Kieran Jacka, and Torben Skov Nielsen. Detecting, categorizing and forecasting large ramps in wind farm power output using meteorological observations and wppt. Wind Energy, 10(5):453-470, 2007.
8. R. Doherty and M. O'Malley. A new approach to quantify reserve demand in systems with significant installed wind capacity. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 20(2):587-595, 2005.
9. G. Giebel, G. Kariniotakis, and R. Brownsword. State of the art on short-term wind power prediction. ANEMOS Deliverable Report D1.1, available online: http://anemos.cma.fr, 2003.
10. G. Gneiting, K. Larson, K. Westrick, M. Genton, and E. Aldrich. Calibrated probabilistic forecasting at the stateline wind energy center: The regime-switching space-time method. Journal of the Americal Statistical Association, 101(475):968-979, 2006.
11. B. Greaves, J. Collins, J. Parkes, and A. Tindal. Temporal forecast uncertainty for ramp events. Wind Engineering, 33:309-319(11), June 2009.
12. E. Grimit and C. Potter. A prototype day-ahead forecast system for rapid wind ramp events. In Proceedings of Windpower 2008 Conference and Exhibition, Houston, TX, 2008.
13. J. Juban, N. Siebert, and G. Kariniotakis. Probabilistic short-term wind power forecasting for the optimal management of wind generation. In Proc. of the IEEE PowerTech 2007 Conference, IEEE Conference, Lausanne, Switzerland, 2007.
14. M. Lange and U. Focken. Physical Approach to Short-Term Wind Power Prediction. Springer, 2005.
15. J.K. Møller, H.Aa. Nielsen, and H. Madsen. Time adaptive quantile regression. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 52:1292-1303, 2008.
16. H.Aa. Nielsen, H. Madsen, and T.S. Nielsen. Using quantile regression to extend an existing wind power forecasting system with probabilistic forecasts. Wind Energy, 9(1-2):95-108, 2006.
17. H.Aa. Nielsen, T.S. Nielsen, H. Madsen, J. Badger, G. Giebel, L. Landberg, K. Sattler, L Voulund, and J. Tøfting. From wind ensembles to probabilistic information about future wind power production - results from an actual application. In Proc. of the IEEE PMAPS 2006 Conference, IEEE Conference, Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, Stockholm, Sweden, 2006.
18. H.Aa. Nielsen, T.S. Nielsen, H. Madsen, and K. Sattler. Wind power ensemble forecasting. In Proc. of the 2004 Global Wind Power Conference, Chicago, Illinois (US), 2004.
19. P. Pinson, C. Chevallier, and G. Kariniotakis. Trading wind generation from short-term probabilistic forecasts of wind power. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 22(3):1148-1156, 2007.
20. P. Pinson and G. Kariniotakis. On-line assessment of prediction risk for wind power production forecasts. Wind Energy, 7(2):119-132, 2004.
21. P. Pinson and H. Madsen. Ensemble-based probabilistic forecasting at horns rev. Wind Energy, 2009.
22. P. Pinson, H.Aa. Nielsen, H. Madsen, and G. Kariniotakis. Skill forecasting from ensemble predictions of wind power. Applied Energy, 2009.
23. C. W. Potter, E. Grimit, and B. Nijssen. Potential benefits of a dedicated probabilistic rapid ramp event forecast tool. 2009 Ieee/Pes Power Systems Conference and Exposition, Vols 1-3:409-413, 2009. IEEE/PES Power Systems Conference and Exposition MAR 15-18, 2009 Seattle, WA.