메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 18, Issue 5, 2012, Pages 1714-1724

Dispersal limitation and spatial scale affect model based projections of Pinus uncinata response to climate change in the Pyrenees

Author keywords

Climate change; Dispersal limitation; Pinus uncinata; Pyrenees; Species distribution models (SDMs)

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; COLONIZATION; CONIFEROUS TREE; DISPERSAL; MOUNTAIN ENVIRONMENT; SCALE EFFECT; SUBALPINE ENVIRONMENT; TREELINE;

EID: 84859502112     PISSN: 13541013     EISSN: 13652486     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02660.x     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (17)

References (76)
  • 1
    • 33750525529 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Assessing the accuracy of species distribution models: prevalence, kappa and the true skill statistic (TSS)
    • Allouche O, Tsoar A, Kadmon R (2006) Assessing the accuracy of species distribution models: prevalence, kappa and the true skill statistic (TSS). Journal of Applied Ecology, 43, 1223-1232.
    • (2006) Journal of Applied Ecology , vol.43 , pp. 1223-1232
    • Allouche, O.1    Tsoar, A.2    Kadmon, R.3
  • 2
    • 79951567223 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Land-use changes as major drivers of mountain pine (Pinus uncinata Ram.) expansion in the Pyrenees
    • Améztegui A, Brotons L, Coll L (2010) Land-use changes as major drivers of mountain pine (Pinus uncinata Ram.) expansion in the Pyrenees. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 19, 632-641.
    • (2010) Global Ecology and Biogeography , vol.19 , pp. 632-641
    • Améztegui, A.1    Brotons, L.2    Coll, L.3
  • 3
    • 33748497089 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • How does climate change affect biodiversity?
    • Araújo MB, Rahbek C (2006) How does climate change affect biodiversity? Science, 313, 1396-1397.
    • (2006) Science , vol.313 , pp. 1396-1397
    • Araújo, M.B.1    Rahbek, C.2
  • 4
    • 63849138533 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Individualistic vs community modelling of species distributions under climate change
    • Baselga A, Araújo MB (2009) Individualistic vs community modelling of species distributions under climate change. Ecography, 32, 55-65.
    • (2009) Ecography , vol.32 , pp. 55-65
    • Baselga, A.1    Araújo, M.B.2
  • 5
    • 54049087076 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Regional tree line dynamics in response to global change in the Pyrenees
    • Batllori E, Gutiérrez E (2008) Regional tree line dynamics in response to global change in the Pyrenees. Journal of Ecology, 96, 1275-1288.
    • (2008) Journal of Ecology , vol.96 , pp. 1275-1288
    • Batllori, E.1    Gutiérrez, E.2
  • 6
    • 66949128317 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Seedling recruitment, survival and facilitation in alpine Pinus uncinata tree line ecotones. Implications and potential responses to climate warming
    • Batllori E, Camarero JJ, Ninot JM, Gutiérrez E (2009) Seedling recruitment, survival and facilitation in alpine Pinus uncinata tree line ecotones. Implications and potential responses to climate warming. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 18, 460-472.
    • (2009) Global Ecology and Biogeography , vol.18 , pp. 460-472
    • Batllori, E.1    Camarero, J.J.2    Ninot, J.M.3    Gutiérrez, E.4
  • 7
    • 77957043838 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Current regeneration patterns at tree line in the Pyrenees indicate similar recruitment processes irrespective of past disturbance regime
    • Batllori E, Camarero JJ, Gutiérrez E (2010) Current regeneration patterns at tree line in the Pyrenees indicate similar recruitment processes irrespective of past disturbance regime. Journal of Biogeography, 37, 1938-1950.
    • (2010) Journal of Biogeography , vol.37 , pp. 1938-1950
    • Batllori, E.1    Camarero, J.J.2    Gutiérrez, E.3
  • 8
    • 33847187072 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predictive modelling of tree species distributions on the Iberian Peninsula during the last glacial maximum and mid-holocene
    • Benito Garzón M, Sánchez de Dios R, Sáinz Ollero H (2007) Predictive modelling of tree species distributions on the Iberian Peninsula during the last glacial maximum and mid-holocene. Ecography, 30, 120-134.
    • (2007) Ecography , vol.30 , pp. 120-134
    • Benito Garzón, M.1    Sánchez de Dios, R.2    Sáinz Ollero, H.3
  • 12
    • 0031873702 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Competition and facilitation on elevation gradients in subalpine forests of the northern Rocky Mountains, USA
    • Callaway RM (1998) Competition and facilitation on elevation gradients in subalpine forests of the northern Rocky Mountains, USA. Oikos, 82, 561-573.
    • (1998) Oikos , vol.82 , pp. 561-573
    • Callaway, R.M.1
  • 13
    • 1642633590 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Structure and recent recruitment at alpine forest-pasture ecotones in the Spanish Central Pyrenees
    • Camarero JJ, Gutiérrez E (1999) Structure and recent recruitment at alpine forest-pasture ecotones in the Spanish Central Pyrenees. Écoscience, 6, 451-464.
    • (1999) Écoscience , vol.6 , pp. 451-464
    • Camarero, J.J.1    Gutiérrez, E.2
  • 14
    • 0036035788 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Plant species distribution across two contrasting treeline ecotones in the Spanish Pyrenees
    • Camarero JJ, Gutiérrez E (2002) Plant species distribution across two contrasting treeline ecotones in the Spanish Pyrenees. Plant Ecology, 162, 247-257.
    • (2002) Plant Ecology , vol.162 , pp. 247-257
    • Camarero, J.J.1    Gutiérrez, E.2
  • 15
    • 1842711759 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Pace and pattern of recent tree line dynamics: response of ecotones to climatic variability in the Spanish Pyrenees
    • Camarero JJ, Gutiérrez E (2004) Pace and pattern of recent tree line dynamics: response of ecotones to climatic variability in the Spanish Pyrenees. Climatic Change, 63, 181-200.
    • (2004) Climatic Change , vol.63 , pp. 181-200
    • Camarero, J.J.1    Gutiérrez, E.2
  • 16
    • 0005128124 scopus 로고
    • Le Pin a crochets pyreneen: biologie, biochimie, sylviculture
    • Cantegrel R (1983) Le Pin a crochets pyreneen: biologie, biochimie, sylviculture. Acta Biologica Montana, 2-3, 87-330.
    • (1983) Acta Biologica Montana , vol.2-3 , pp. 87-330
    • Cantegrel, R.1
  • 19
    • 33947268823 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluating the performance and utility of regional climate models: the prudence project
    • Christensen JH, Carter TR, Rummukainen M, Amanatidis G (2007a) Evaluating the performance and utility of regional climate models: the prudence project. Climatic Change, 81, 1-6.
    • (2007) Climatic Change , vol.81 , pp. 1-6
    • Christensen, J.H.1    Carter, T.R.2    Rummukainen, M.3    Amanatidis, G.4
  • 21
    • 0031456318 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Reid's paradox of rapid plant migration
    • Clark JS, Fastie C, Hurtt G et al. (1998) Reid's paradox of rapid plant migration. BioScience, 48, 13-24.
    • (1998) BioScience , vol.48 , pp. 13-24
    • Clark, J.S.1    Fastie, C.2    Hurtt, G.3
  • 22
    • 0345447476 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimating population spread: what can we forecast and how well?
    • Clark JS, Lewis M, McLachlan JS, RisLambers HJ (2003) Estimating population spread: what can we forecast and how well? Ecology, 84, 1979-1988.
    • (2003) Ecology , vol.84 , pp. 1979-1988
    • Clark, J.S.1    Lewis, M.2    McLachlan, J.S.3    RisLambers, H.J.4
  • 24
    • 37049005158 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP) in physical geography
    • Dark SJ, Bram D (2007) The modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP) in physical geography. Progress in Physical Geography, 31, 471-479.
    • (2007) Progress in Physical Geography , vol.31 , pp. 471-479
    • Dark, S.J.1    Bram, D.2
  • 26
    • 0042174023 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate variability and change in high elevation regions: past, present and future
    • Diaz HF, Grosjean M, Graumlich L (2003) Climate variability and change in high elevation regions: past, present and future. Climatic Change, 59, 1-4.
    • (2003) Climatic Change , vol.59 , pp. 1-4
    • Diaz, H.F.1    Grosjean, M.2    Graumlich, L.3
  • 27
    • 78650765137 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Disproportional risk for habitat loss of high-altitude endemic species under climate change
    • Dirnböck T, Essl F, Rabitsch W (2011) Disproportional risk for habitat loss of high-altitude endemic species under climate change. Global Change Biology, 17, 990-996.
    • (2011) Global Change Biology , vol.17 , pp. 990-996
    • Dirnböck, T.1    Essl, F.2    Rabitsch, W.3
  • 28
    • 1842534564 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Modelling climate change-driven tree line shifts: relative effects of temperature increase, dispersal and invasibility
    • Dullinger S, Dirnböck T, Grabherr G (2004) Modelling climate change-driven tree line shifts: relative effects of temperature increase, dispersal and invasibility. Journal of Ecology, 92, 241-252.
    • (2004) Journal of Ecology , vol.92 , pp. 241-252
    • Dullinger, S.1    Dirnböck, T.2    Grabherr, G.3
  • 29
    • 63849287596 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Do they? How do they? Why do they differ? On finding reasons for differing performances of species distribution models
    • Elith J, Graham CH (2009) Do they? How do they? Why do they differ? On finding reasons for differing performances of species distribution models. Ecography, 32, 66-77.
    • (2009) Ecography , vol.32 , pp. 66-77
    • Elith, J.1    Graham, C.H.2
  • 31
    • 63849107800 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predicting future distributions of mountain plants under climate change: does dispersal capacity matter?
    • Engler R, Randin XF, Vittoz P, Czáka T, Beniston M, Zimmermann NE, Guisan A (2009) Predicting future distributions of mountain plants under climate change: does dispersal capacity matter? Ecography, 23, 34-45.
    • (2009) Ecography , vol.23 , pp. 34-45
    • Engler, R.1    Randin, X.F.2    Vittoz, P.3    Czáka, T.4    Beniston, M.5    Zimmermann, N.E.6    Guisan, A.7
  • 34
    • 0004197017 scopus 로고
    • La evolución de la agricultura de montaña y sus efectos sobre la dinámica del paisaje
    • in Spanish
    • García-Ruiz JM (1988) La evolución de la agricultura de montaña y sus efectos sobre la dinámica del paisaje. Revista de Estudios Agro-Sociales 146: 7-37 (in Spanish).
    • (1988) Revista de Estudios Agro-Sociales , vol.146 , pp. 7-37
    • García-Ruiz, J.M.1
  • 35
    • 0024179892 scopus 로고
    • Structure of mountain pine (Pinus uncinata) populations at its upper limit in Central Pyrenees
    • Gil Pelegrín E, Villar Pérez L (1988) Structure of mountain pine (Pinus uncinata) populations at its upper limit in Central Pyrenees. Pirineos, 131, 25-42.
    • (1988) Pirineos , vol.131 , pp. 25-42
    • Gil Pelegrín, E.1    Villar Pérez, L.2
  • 36
    • 24344493920 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models
    • Guisan A, Thuiller W (2005) Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models. Ecology Letters, 8, 993-1009.
    • (2005) Ecology Letters , vol.8 , pp. 993-1009
    • Guisan, A.1    Thuiller, W.2
  • 37
    • 0034610199 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology
    • Guisan A, Zimmermann NE (2000) Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology. Ecological Modelling, 135, 147-186.
    • (2000) Ecological Modelling , vol.135 , pp. 147-186
    • Guisan, A.1    Zimmermann, N.E.2
  • 38
    • 79956018281 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Treeline form - a potential key to understanding treeline dynamics
    • doi: 10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00622.x
    • Harsch MA, Bader MY (2011) Treeline form - a potential key to understanding treeline dynamics. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 20, 582-596, doi: 10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00622.x
    • (2011) Global Ecology and Biogeography , vol.20 , pp. 582-596
    • Harsch, M.A.1    Bader, M.Y.2
  • 39
    • 70349104098 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Are treelines advancing? A global meta-analysis of treeline response to climate warming
    • Harsch MA, Hulme PE, McGlone MS, Duncan RP (2009) Are treelines advancing? A global meta-analysis of treeline response to climate warming. Ecology Letters, 12, 1040-1049.
    • (2009) Ecology Letters , vol.12 , pp. 1040-1049
    • Harsch, M.A.1    Hulme, P.E.2    McGlone, M.S.3    Duncan, R.P.4
  • 43
  • 44
    • 56749119080 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • IPCC Contribution of working groups i, ii and iii to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland.
    • IPCC (2007) Climate Change Synthesis Report. Contribution of working groups i, ii and iii to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland.
    • (2007) Climate Change Synthesis Report
  • 45
    • 13944280777 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Potential colonization of newly available tree-species habitat under climate change: an analysis for five eastern US species
    • Iverson LR, Schwartz MW, Prasad AN (2004) Potential colonization of newly available tree-species habitat under climate change: an analysis for five eastern US species. Landscape Ecology, 19, 787-799.
    • (2004) Landscape Ecology , vol.19 , pp. 787-799
    • Iverson, L.R.1    Schwartz, M.W.2    Prasad, A.N.3
  • 46
    • 0000297525 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The modifiable areal unit problem and implications for landscape ecology
    • Jelinski DE, Wu J (1996) The modifiable areal unit problem and implications for landscape ecology. Landscape Ecology, 11(3), 129-140.
    • (1996) Landscape Ecology , vol.11 , Issue.3 , pp. 129-140
    • Jelinski, D.E.1    Wu, J.2
  • 48
    • 34247548344 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Threshold criteria for conversion of probability of species presence to either-or presence-absence
    • Jiménez-Valverde A, Lobo JM (2007) Threshold criteria for conversion of probability of species presence to either-or presence-absence. Acta Oecologica, 31, 361-369.
    • (2007) Acta Oecologica , vol.31 , pp. 361-369
    • Jiménez-Valverde, A.1    Lobo, J.M.2
  • 50
    • 20444488428 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Selecting thresholds of occurrence in the prediction of species distributions
    • Liu C, Berry PM, Dawson TP, Pearson RG (2005) Selecting thresholds of occurrence in the prediction of species distributions. Ecography, 28, 385-393.
    • (2005) Ecography , vol.28 , pp. 385-393
    • Liu, C.1    Berry, P.M.2    Dawson, T.P.3    Pearson, R.G.4
  • 51
    • 38949161848 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • AUC: a misleading measure of the performance of predictive distribution models
    • Lobo JM, Jiménez-Valverde A, Real R (2008) AUC: a misleading measure of the performance of predictive distribution models. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 17, 145-151.
    • (2008) Global Ecology and Biogeography , vol.17 , pp. 145-151
    • Lobo, J.M.1    Jiménez-Valverde, A.2    Real, R.3
  • 52
    • 0004062081 scopus 로고
    • Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.
    • MacArthur RH (1972) Geographical Ecology. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.
    • (1972) Geographical Ecology
    • MacArthur, R.H.1
  • 53
    • 79955408815 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Disentangling the formation of contrasting tree line physiognomies combining model selection and Bayesian parameterization for simulation models
    • Martínez I, Wiegand T, Camarero JJ, Batllori E, Gutiérrez E (2011) Disentangling the formation of contrasting tree line physiognomies combining model selection and Bayesian parameterization for simulation models. The American Naturalist, 177, E136-E152.
    • (2011) The American Naturalist , vol.177
    • Martínez, I.1    Wiegand, T.2    Camarero, J.J.3    Batllori, E.4    Gutiérrez, E.5
  • 54
    • 23644459339 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Molecular indicators of tree migration capacity under rapid climate change
    • McLachlan JS, Clark JS, Manos PS (2005) Molecular indicators of tree migration capacity under rapid climate change. Ecology, 86, 2088-2098.
    • (2005) Ecology , vol.86 , pp. 2088-2098
    • McLachlan, J.S.1    Clark, J.S.2    Manos, P.S.3
  • 55
    • 77957782472 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluation of the potential index model to predict habitat suitability of forest species: the potential distribution of mountain pine (Pinus uncinata) in the Iberian Peninsula
    • Mezquida ET, Rubio A, Sánchez-Palomares O (2010) Evaluation of the potential index model to predict habitat suitability of forest species: the potential distribution of mountain pine (Pinus uncinata) in the Iberian Peninsula. European Journal of Forest Research, 129, 133-140.
    • (2010) European Journal of Forest Research , vol.129 , pp. 133-140
    • Mezquida, E.T.1    Rubio, A.2    Sánchez-Palomares, O.3
  • 58
    • 42549088216 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Altitude zonation in the Pyrenees. A geobotanic interpretation
    • Ninot JM, Carrillo E, Font X et al. (2007) Altitude zonation in the Pyrenees. A geobotanic interpretation. Phytocoenologia, 37, 371-398.
    • (2007) Phytocoenologia , vol.37 , pp. 371-398
    • Ninot, J.M.1    Carrillo, E.2    Font, X.3
  • 59
    • 0002701407 scopus 로고
    • A million or so correlation coefficients: three experiments on the modifiable areal unit problem
    • (ed. Wrigley N) Pion, London.
    • Openshaw S, Taylor PJ (1979) A million or so correlation coefficients: three experiments on the modifiable areal unit problem. In: Statistical Applications in Spatial Sciences (ed. Wrigley N), pp. 127-144. Pion, London.
    • (1979) Statistical Applications in Spatial Sciences , pp. 127-144
    • Openshaw, S.1    Taylor, P.J.2
  • 61
    • 37349058656 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Migration, invasion and decline: changes in recruitment and forest structure in a warming-linked shift of European beech forest in Catalonia (Spain)
    • Peñuelas J, Ogaya R, Boada M, Jump AS (2007) Migration, invasion and decline: changes in recruitment and forest structure in a warming-linked shift of European beech forest in Catalonia (Spain). Ecography, 30, 830-838.
    • (2007) Ecography , vol.30 , pp. 830-838
    • Peñuelas, J.1    Ogaya, R.2    Boada, M.3    Jump, A.S.4
  • 62
    • 0031400135 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An overview of the Global Historical Climatology Network temperature database
    • Peterson TC, Vose RS (1997) An overview of the Global Historical Climatology Network temperature database. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 78, 2837-2849.
    • (1997) Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society , vol.78 , pp. 2837-2849
    • Peterson, T.C.1    Vose, R.S.2
  • 63
    • 79951480123 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • R Development Core Team R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. ISBN 3-900051-07-0, URL Available at: (accessed 7 July 2010).
    • R Development Core Team (2010). R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. ISBN 3-900051-07-0, URL Available at: (accessed 7 July 2010).
    • (2010) R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing
  • 64
    • 65549157944 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate change and plant distribution: local models predict high-elevation persistence
    • Randin CF, Engler R, Normand S (2009) Climate change and plant distribution: local models predict high-elevation persistence. Global Change Biology, 15, 1557-1569.
    • (2009) Global Change Biology , vol.15 , pp. 1557-1569
    • Randin, C.F.1    Engler, R.2    Normand, S.3
  • 65
    • 63249101978 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Scale effects in species distribution models: implications for conservation planning under climate change
    • Seo C, Thorne JH, Hannah L, Thuiller W (2009) Scale effects in species distribution models: implications for conservation planning under climate change. Biology Letters, 5, 39-43.
    • (2009) Biology Letters , vol.5 , pp. 39-43
    • Seo, C.1    Thorne, J.H.2    Hannah, L.3    Thuiller, W.4
  • 66
    • 0037937374 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Spatiotemporal variability in tree growth in the central pyrenees: climatic and site influences
    • Tardif J, Camarero JJ, Ribas M, Gutiérrez E (2003) Spatiotemporal variability in tree growth in the central pyrenees: climatic and site influences. Ecological Monographs, 73, 241-257.
    • (2003) Ecological Monographs , vol.73 , pp. 241-257
    • Tardif, J.1    Camarero, J.J.2    Ribas, M.3    Gutiérrez, E.4
  • 67
    • 85040954710 scopus 로고
    • ed Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
    • Trenberth KE (ed) (1992) Climate System Modeling. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
    • (1992) Climate System Modeling
    • Trenberth, K.E.1
  • 68
    • 42949101271 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Spatial scale affects bioclimate model projections of climate change impacts on mountain plants
    • Trivedi MR, Berry PM, Morecroft MD, Dawson TP (2008) Spatial scale affects bioclimate model projections of climate change impacts on mountain plants. Global Change Biology, 14, 1089-1103.
    • (2008) Global Change Biology , vol.14 , pp. 1089-1103
    • Trivedi, M.R.1    Berry, P.M.2    Morecroft, M.D.3    Dawson, T.P.4
  • 69
    • 70350453943 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Invasive species distribution modeling (iSDM): Are absence data and dispersal constraints needed to predict actual distributions?
    • Václavík T, Meentemeyer R (2009) Invasive species distribution modeling (iSDM): Are absence data and dispersal constraints needed to predict actual distributions? Ecological Modelling, 220, 3248-3258.
    • (2009) Ecological Modelling , vol.220 , pp. 3248-3258
    • Václavík, T.1    Meentemeyer, R.2
  • 70
    • 33745274494 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Abrupt population changes in tree line ecotones along smooth gradients
    • Wiegand T, Camarero JJ, Rüger N, Gutiérrez E (2006) Abrupt population changes in tree line ecotones along smooth gradients. Journal of Ecology, 94, 880-892.
    • (2006) Journal of Ecology , vol.94 , pp. 880-892
    • Wiegand, T.1    Camarero, J.J.2    Rüger, N.3    Gutiérrez, E.4
  • 75
    • 42149179133 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Fast stable direct fitting and smoothness selection for generalized additive models
    • Wood SN (2008) Fast stable direct fitting and smoothness selection for generalized additive models. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B, 70, 495-518.
    • (2008) Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B , vol.70 , pp. 495-518
    • Wood, S.N.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.