Modelling climate change-driven treeline shifts: Relative effects of temperature increase, dispersal and invasibility

Journal of Ecology

Volumn 92, Issue 2, 2004, Pages 241-252

  Dullinger, Stefan ^a   Dirnböck, Thomas ^b   Grabherr, Georg ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF VIENNA   (Austria)

^b ENVIRONMENT AGENCY AUSTRIA   (Austria)

Author keywords

Alpine treeline; Climate change; Dispersal; European Alps; Invisibility; Plant spread model

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; DISPERSAL; MODELING; TEMPERATURE; TREELINE;

PINUS MUGO;

EID: 1842534564     PISSN: 00220477     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.0022-0477.2004.00872.x     Document Type: Article

References (65)

1. Bachmann, A. (1998) Coupling NUATMOS with the GIS ARC/Info. Final Report for MINERVE 2. Department of Geography of the ETH Zürich, Division of Spatial Data Handling.
2. Bullock, J.B., Moy, I.L., Pywell, R.F., Coulson, S.J., Nolan, A.M. & Caswell, H. (2002) Plant dispersal and colonization processes at local and landscape scales. Dispersal Ecology (eds J.M. Bullock, R.E. Kenward & R.S. Hails), pp. 279-302. Blackwell Scientific, Oxford.
3. Clark, J.S. (1998) Why trees migrate so fast. Confronting theory with dispersal biology and the paleorecord. American Naturalist, 152, 204-224.
4. Clark, J.S., Beckage, B., Camill, P., Cleveland, B., HilleRis-Lambers, J., Lichter et al. (1999) Interpreting recruitment limitation in forests. American Journal of Botany, 86, 1-16.
5. Clark, J.S., Macklin, E. & Wood, L. (1998) Stages and spatial scales of recruitment limitation in southern Appalachian forests. Ecological Monographs, 68, 213-235.
6. Cullen, L., Stewart, G.H., Duncan, R.P. & Palmer, G. (2001) Disturbance and climate warming influences on New Zealand Nothofagus tree-line population dynamics. Journal of Ecology, 89, 1061-1071.
7. De Steven, D. & Wright, J. (2002) Consequences of variable reproduction for seedling recruitment in three neotropical tree species. Ecology, 83, 2315-2317.
8. Dirnböck, T., Dullinger, S., Gottfried, M. & Grabherr, G. (1999) Die Vegetation des Hochschwab (Steiermark) - Alpine und Subalpine Stufe. Mitteilungen Des Naturwissenschaftlichen Vereins der Steiermark, 129, 111-251.
9. Dirnböck, T., Dullinger, S. & Grabherr, G (2003) A regional impact assessment of climate and land use change on alpine vegetation. Journal of Biogeography, 30, 401-418.
10. Dubayah, R. & Rich, P.M. (1996) GIS-based solar radiation modeling. GIS and Environmental Modeling (eds M.F. Goodchild, L.T. Steyaert & B.O. Parks), pp. 129-134. John Wiley & Sons, New York.
11. Dullinger, S., Dirnböck, T. & Grabherr, G. (2003) Patterns of shrub invasion into high mountain grasslands of the Northern Calcareous Alps (Austria). Arctic, Antarctic and Alpine Research, 35, 434-441.
12. Dullinger, S., Dirnböck, T., Greimler, J. & Grabherr, G. (2003) A resampling approach for evaluating effects of pasture abandonment on subalpine plant species diversity. Journal of Vegetation Science, 14, 243-252.
13. Ellison, A.M. (2001) Exploratory data analysis and graphic display. Design and Analysis of Ecological Experiments, 2nd edn (eds S.M. Scheiner & J. Gurevitch), pp. 37-62. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
14. Gallant, J.C. & Wilson, J.P (1996) Tapes-G: a grid-based terrain analysis program for the environmental science. Computers and Geoscience, 22, 713-722.
15. Grabherr, G., Gottfried, M. & Pauli, H. (1994) Climate effects on mountain plants. Nature, 369, 448.
16. Greene, D.F. & Johnson, E.A. (1997) Secondary dispersal of tree seeds on snow. Journal of Ecology, 85, 329-340.
17. Guisan, A. & Zimmermann, N.E. (2000) Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology. Ecological Modelling, 135, 147-186.
18. Hafenscherer, J. & Mayer, H. (1986) Standort, Aufbau, Entwicklungsdynamik und Verjüngung von Latschenbeständen im Karwendeltal/Tirol. Schweizer Zeitschrift für Forstwesen, 137, 177-203.
19. Hansen, A.J., Neilson, R.P., Dale, V.H., Flather, C.H., Iverson, L.R., Currie, D.J. et al. (2001) Global change in forests: response of species, communities, and biomes. Bioscience, 51, 765-779.
20. Harrell, F.E. (2001) Regression Modeling Strategies. Springer, New York.
21. Hessl, A.E. & Baker, W.L. (1997) Spruce and fir regeneration and climate in the forest-tundra ecotone of Rocky Mountains National Park, Colorado, U.S.A. Arctic and Alpine Research, 29, 173-183.
22. Higgins, S.I. & Richardson, D.M. (1996) Modeling invasive plant spread: the role of plant-environment interactions and model structure. Ecology, 77, 2043-2054.
23. Higgins, S.I. & Richardson, D.M. (1999) Predicting plant migration rates in a changing world: the role of long-distance dispersal. American Naturalist, 153, 464-475.
24. Higgins, S.I., Richardson, D.M. & Cowling, R.M. (2001) Validation of a spatial simulation model of a spreading alien plant population. Journal of Applied Ecology, 38, 571-584.
25. Hoch, G., Popp, M. & Körner, C. (2002) Altitudinal increase of mobile carbon pools in Pinus cembra suggests sink limitation of growth at the Swiss treeline. Oikos, 98, 361-374.
26. Keane, R., Austin, M., Field, C., Huth, A., Lexer, M.J., Peters, D. et al. (2001 ) Tree mortality in gap models: application to climate change. Climatic Change, 51, 509-540.
27. Kittel, T.G.F., Steffen, W.L. & Chapin, F.S. III (2000) Global and regional modelling of arctic-boreal vegetation distribution and its sensitivity to altered forces. Global Change Biology, 6, 1-18.
28. Klasner, F.L. & Fagre, D.B. (2002) A half century of change in alpine treeline patterns at Glacier National Park, Montana, U.S.A. Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, 34, 49-56.
29. Kot, M., Lewis, M.A. & van den Driessche, P. (1996) Dispersal data and the spread of invading organisms. Ecology, 77, 2027-2042.
30. Kullman, L. (1993) Pine (Pinus sylvetris L.) tree-limit surveillance during recent decades, Central Sweden. Arctic and Alpine Research, 25, 24-31.
31. Kullman, L. (2002) Rapid recent range-margin rise of tree and shrub species in the Swedish Scandes. Journal of Ecology, 90, 68-77.
32. Lavoie, C. & Payette, S. (1994) Recent fluctuations of the lichen-spruce forest limit in subarctic Quebec. Journal of Ecology, 82, 725-734.
33. Lexer, M.J., Hönninger, K., Scheifinger, H., Matulla, Ch, Groll, N., Kromp-Kolb, H. et al. (2001) The sensitivity of the Austrian forests to scenarios of climatic change. Monographien des Umweltbundesamt Wien, 132, 1-132.
34. Loehle, C. & LeBlanc, D. (1996) Model-based assessments of climate change effects on forests: a critical review. Ecological Modelling, 90, 1-31.
35. Magee, T.K. & Antos, J.A. ( 1992) Tree invasion into a mountain-top meadow in the Oregon Coast Range, USA. Journal of Vegetation Science, 3, 485-494.
36. Masek, J.G. (2001) Stability of boreal forest stands during recent climate change: evidence from Landsat satellite imagery. Journal of Biogeography, 28, 967-976.
37. Mayer, H. (1976) Gebirgswaldbau - Schutzwaldpflege. Fischer, Stuttgart.
38. Meshinev, T., Apostolova, I. & Koleva, E.S. (2000) Influence of warming on timberline rising: a case study on Pinus peuce Griseb. in Bulgaria. Phytocoenologia, 30, 431-438.
39. Michiels, H.G. (1993) Die Stellung einiger Baum- und Straucharten in der Struktur und Dynamik der Vegetation im Bereich der hochmontanen und subalpinen Waldstufe der Bayrischen Kalkalpen. Forstliche Forschungsberichte München, 135, 1-300.
40. Moir, W.H., Rochelle, S.G. & Schoettle, A.W. (1999) Microscale patterns of tree establishment near upper treeline, Snowy Range, Wyoming, U.S.A. Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, 31, 379-388.
41. Motta, R. & Nola, P. (2001) Growth trends and dynamics in sub-alpine forest stands in the Varaita Valley (Piedmont, Italy) and their relationships with human activities and global change. Journal of Vegetation Science, 12, 219-230.
42. Müller-Schneider, P. (1986) Verbreitungsbiologie der Blütenpflanzen Graubündens. Veröffentlichungen des Geobotanischen Instituts der ETH. Stiftung Rübel, 85, 1-263.
43. Nathan, R. & Muller-Landau, C. (2000) Spatial patterns of seed dispersal, their determinants and consequences for recruitment. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 15, 278-285.
44. Neubert, M.G. & Caswell, H. (2000) Demography and dispersal: calculation and sensitivity analysis of invasion speed for structured populations. Ecology, 81, 1613-1628.
45. Parmesan, C. (1996) Climate and species' range. Nature, 382, 765-766.
46. Parmesan, C. & Yohe, G. (2003) A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature, 421, 37-42.
47. Pitelka, L.F. & Plant Migration Workshop Group (1997) Plant migration and climate change. American Scientist, 85, 464-473.
48. Ribbens, E., Silander, J.A. & Pacala, S.W. (1994) Seedling recruitment in forests: calibrating models to predict patterns of tree seedling dispersion. Ecology, 75, 1794-1806.
49. Richardson, D.M. & Bond, W.J. (1991) Determinants of plant distribution: evidence from pine invasions. American Naturalist, 137, 639-668.
50. Richardson, D.M. & Higgins, S.I. (1998) Pines as invaders in the southern hemishpere. Ecology and Biogeography of Pinus (ed. D.M. Richardson), pp. 450-473. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
51. Rochefort, R.M. & Peterson, D.L. (1996) Temporal and spatial distribution of trees in subalpine meadows of Mount Rainier National Park, Washington, U.S.A. Arctic and Alpine Research, 28, 52-59.
52. Roecker, E., Oberhuber, J.M., Bacher, A., Christopch, M. & Kirchner, I. (1996) ENSO variability and atmospheric response in a global coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM. Climate Dynamics, 12, 737-754.
53. Ross, D.G., Smith, I.N., Manins, P.C. & Fox, D.G. (1988) Diagnostic wind field modeling for complex terrain: model development and testing. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 27, 785-796.
54. Schroeter, C. (1926) Das Pflanzenleben der Alpen. Albert Raustein, Zürich.
55. Shea, K. & Chesson, P. (2002) Community ecology theory as a framework for biological invasions. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 17, 170-176.
56. Shigesada, N. & Kawasaki, K. (2002) Invasion and the range expansion of species: effects of long-distance dispersal. Dispersal Ecology (eds J.M. Bullock, R.E. Kenward & R.S. Hails), pp. 350-373. Blackwell Scientific, Oxford.
57. Stone, C.J. & Koo, C.Y. (1985) Additive Splines in Statistics. Proceedings of the Statistical Computing Section ASA: 45-48. American Statistical Association, Washington, DC.
58. Sturm, M., Racine, C. & Tape, K. (2001) Increasing shrub abundance in the Arctic. Nature, 411, 546-547.
59. Szeicz, J.M. & MacDonald, G.M. (1995) Recent white spruce dynamics at the subarctic alpine treeline of north-western Canada. Journal of Ecology, 83, 873-885.
60. Theurillat, J.-P. & Guisan, A. (2001) Potential impact of climate change on vegetation in the European Alps: a review. Climatic Change, 50, 77-109.
61. Thomas, C.D., Bodsworth, E.J., Wilson, R.J., Simmons, A.D., Davies, Z.G., Musche, M. et al. (2001) Ecological and evolutionary processes at expanding range margins. Nature, 411, 577-581.
62. Vander Wall, S.B. (1992) The role of animals in dispersing a 'wind-dispersed' pine. Ecology, 73, 614-621.
63. Walther, G.-R., Post, E., Convey, P., Menzel, A., Parmesan, C., Beebee, T.J.C. et al. (2002) Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature, 416, 389-395.
64. Watkinson, A.R. & Gill, J.A. (2002) Climate change and dispersal. Dispersal Ecology (eds J.M. Bullock, R.E. Kenward & R.S. Hails), pp. 410-430. Blackwell Scientific, Oxford.
65. Wiser, S.K., Allen, R.B., Clinton, P.W. & Platt, K.H. (1998) Community structure and forest invasion by an exotic herb over 23 years. Ecology, 76, 2071-2081.