Precipitation changes in the South American Altiplano since 1300 AD reconstructed by tree-rings

Climate of the Past

Volumn 8, Issue 2, 2012, Pages 653-666

  Morales, M S ^a   Christie, D A ^b   Villalba, R ^a   Argollo, J ^c   Pacajes, J ^c   Silva, J S ^b   Alvarez, C A ^b,d   Llancabure, J C ^b   Gamboa, C C Soliz ^e  

^a INSTITUTO ARGENTINO DE NIVOLOGÍA   (Argentina)

^b UNIVERSIDAD AUSTRAL DE CHILE   (Chile)

^c UNIVERSIDAD MAYOR DE SAN ANDRÉS   (Bolivia)

^d UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO   (United States)

^e UTRECHT UNIVERSITY   (Netherlands)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ANTHROPOGENIC EFFECT; CLIMATE FORCING; CLIMATE VARIATION; DENDROCLIMATOLOGY; DICOTYLEDON; DROUGHT; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; GLACIER DYNAMICS; LOWLAND ENVIRONMENT; PALEOCLIMATE; PALEOECOLOGY; PRECIPITATION ASSESSMENT; RECONSTRUCTION; SOCIOECONOMIC CONDITIONS; TELECONNECTION; TREE RING; TWENTIETH CENTURY; VULNERABILITY; WARMING; WATER DEMAND; WATER MANAGEMENT; WATER RESOURCE;

ALTIPLANO; ANDES;

POLYLEPIS TARAPACANA;

EID: 84859338964     PISSN: 18149324     EISSN: 18149332     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5194/cp-8-653-2012     Document Type: Article

References (86)

1. Aceituno, P. and Montecinos, A.: Circulation anomalies associated with dry and wet periods in the South American Altiplano, in: Preprints 4th Int. Conf. on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography, Hobart, Australia, 29 March-2 April, 330-331, 1993.
2. Argollo, M., Solíz, C., and Villalba, R.: Potencialidad dendro-cronológica de Polylepis tarapacana en los Andes centrales de Bolivia, Ecología en Bolivia, 39, 5-24, 2004.
3. Binford, M. W., Kolata, A. L., Brenner, M., Janusek, J. W., Seddon, M. T., Abbott, M. B., and Jason, H.: Climate variation and the rise and fall of an Andean civilization, Quaternary Res., 47, 235-248, 1997.
4. Bird, W. B., Abbott, M. B., Vuille M., Rodbell, D. T., Stansella, N. D., and Rosenmeier, M. F.: A 2,300-year-long annually resolved record of the South American summer monsoon from the Peruvian Andes, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 108, 8583-8588, doi:10.1073/pnas.1003719108, 2011.
5. Blasing, T. J., Solomon, A. M., and Duvick, D. N.: Response Functions Revisited, Tree Ring Bull., 44, 1-15, 1984.
6. Boninsegna, J. A., Argollo, J., Aravena, J. C., Barichivich, J., Christie, D. A., Ferrero, M. E., Lara, A., Le Quesne, C., Luck-man, B. H., Masiokas, M., Morales, M. S., Oliveira, J. M., Roig, F., Srur, A., and Villalba, R.: Dendroclimatological Reconstructions in South America: A review. Palaeogeogr. Palaeocl., 281, 210-228, 2009.
7. Boucher, É., Guiot, J., and Chapron, E.: A millennial multi-proxy reconstruction of summer PDSI for Southern South America, Clim. Past, 7, 957-974, doi:10.5194/cp-7-957-2011, 2011.
8. Bradley, R. S., Vuille, M., Hardy, D., and Thompson, L. G.: Low latitude ice cores record Pacific sea surface temperatures. Geo-phys. Res. Lett., 30, 1174, doi:10.1029/2002GL016546, 2003.
9. Bradley, R. S., Vuille, M., Diaz, H. F., and Vergara, W.: Threats to water supplies in the tropical Andes, Science, 312, 1755-1756, 2006. (Pubitemid 43962881)
10. Braun, G.: The use of digital methods in assessing forest patterns in an Andean environment: the Polylepis example, Mt. Res. Dev., 17, 253-262, 1997.
11. Carrasco, J. F., Osorio R., and Casassa, G.: Secular trend of the equilibrium-line altitude on the western side of the southern Andes, derived from radiosonde and surface observations, J. Glaciol., 54, 538-550, 2008.
12. Christie, D. A., Lara, A., Barichivich, J., Villalba, R., Morales, M. S., and Cuq, E.: El Niño-Southern Oscillation signal in the world's high-elevation tree-ring chronologies from the Altiplano, Central Andes, Palaeogeogr. Palaeocl., 281, 309-319, 2009.
13. Christie, D. A., Boninsegna, J. A., Cleaveland, M. K., Lara, A., Le-Quesne, C., Morales, M. S., Mudelsee, M., Stahle, D., and Vil-lalba, R.: Aridity changes in the Temperate-Mediterranean transition of the Andes since AD 1346 reconstructed from tree-rings, Clim. Dynam., 36, 1505-1521, 2011.
14. COCHILCO.: Copper and other mineral statistics 1987-2006. Comisión Chilena del Cobre, Gobierno de Chile, Santiago, Chile, 2007.
15. Cook, E. R.: A time series analysis approach to tree-ring standardization, Ph.D. thesis, The University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, 171 pp., 1985.
16. Cook, E. R., Briffa, K. R., Shiyatov, S., and Mazepa, V.: Tree Ring Standardization and Growth-Trend Estimation, in: Methods of Dendrochronology: Applications in the Environmental Sciences, edited by: Cook, E. R. and Kairiukstis, L. A., Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, 104-123, 1990.
17. Cook, E. R., Woodhouse, C. A., Eakin, C. M., Meko, D. M., and Stahle, D. W.: Long-term aridity changes in the western United States, Science, 306, 1015-1018, 2004. (Pubitemid 39482901)
18. Cook, E. R., Seager, R., Cane, M., and Stahle, D. W.: North American drought: Reconstructions, causes, and consequences, Earth-Sci. Rev., 81, 93-134, 2007. (Pubitemid 46277360)
19. Cooley, W. W. and Lohnes, P. R.: Multivariate data analysis, John Wiley & Son, New York, 1971.
20. Coudrain, A., Francou, B., and Kundzewicz, Z. W.: Glacier shrinkage in the Andes and consequences for water resources, Hydrol. Sci. J., 50, 925-932, 2005. (Pubitemid 41742650)
21. Deser, C., Alexander, M. A., Xie, S-P., and Phillips, A. S.: Sea surface temperature variability: Patterns and mechanisms, Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci., 2, 115-143, 2010.
22. Draper, N. R. and Smith, H.: Applied Regression Analysis, John Wiley & Son, New York, 1981.
23. Francou, B., Vuille, M., Wagnon, P., Mendoza, J., and Sicart, J. E.: Tropical climate change recorded by glacier in the central Andes during the last decades of the twentieth century: Chacaltaya, Bolivia, 16? S, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4154, doi:10.1029/2002JD002959, 2003.
24. Fritts, H. C.: Tree rings and climate, Academic Presss, London, 1976.
25. Garcia, M., Raes, D., and Jacobsen, S. E.: Reference evapotranspiration and crop coefficient of quinoa (Chenopodium quinoa Willd) in the Bolivian Altiplano, Agr. Water Manage., 60, 119-134, 2003.
26. Garcia, M., Raes, D., Jacobsen, S. E., and Michel, T.: Agroclimatic constraints for rainfed agriculture in the Bolivian Altiplano, J. Arid. Environ., 71, 109-121, 2007. (Pubitemid 47001987)
27. Garreaud, R. and Aceituno, P.: Interannual rainfall variability over the South American Altiplano, J. Climate, 14, 2779-2789, 2001. (Pubitemid 33045317)
28. Garreaud, R., Vuille, M., and Clement, C.: The climate of the Altiplano: Observed current conditions and mechanisms of past changes, Palaeogeogr. Palaeocl., 194, 5-22, 2003. (Pubitemid 36579835)
29. Garreaud, R. D., Vuille, M., Compagnucci, R., and Marengo, J.: Present day South American climate, Palaeogeogr. Palaeocl., 281, 180-195, 2009.
30. Gil Montero, R. and Villalba, R.: Tree rings as a surrogate for economic stress-an example from the Puna of Jujuy, Argentina in the 19th century, Dendrochronologia, 22, 141-147, 2005. (Pubitemid 41127243)
31. Gioda, A. and Prieto, R.: Histoire des sécheresses andines: Potosí, El Niño et le Petit Age Glaciaire, La Mété orologie, 8, 33-42, 1999.
32. Gordon, G.: Verification of dendroclimatic reconstructions, in: Climate from Tree Rings, edited by: Hughes, M. K., Kelly, P. M., Pilcher, J. R., and LaMarche Jr., V. C., Cambridge University Press, 58-61, 1982.
33. Gosling, W. D., Hanselman, J. A., Knox, C., Valencia, B. G., and Bush, M. B.: Long-term drivers of change in Polylepis woodland distribution in the central Andes, J. Veg. Sci., 20, 1041-1052, 2009.
34. Grinsted, A., Moore, J. C., and Jevrejeva, S.: Application of the cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence to geophysical time series, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 11, 561-566, doi:10.5194/npg-11-561-2004, 2004. (Pubitemid 40162119)
35. Holmes, R. L.: Computer-assisted quality control in tree-ring dating and measurements, Tree Ring Bull., 43, 69-75, 1983.
36. Houston, J.: Groundwater recharge through an alluvial fan in the Atacama Desert, northern Chile: mechanisms, magnitudes and causes, Hydrol. Process., 16, 3019-3035, 2002. (Pubitemid 35212782)
37. Jansen, E., Overpeck, J., Briffa, K. R., Duplessy, J. C., Joos, F., Masson-Delmotte, V., Olago, D., Otto-Bliesner, B., Peltier, W. R., Rahmstorf, S., Ramesh, R., Raynaud, D., Rind, D., Solom-ina, O., Villalba R., and Zhang, D.: Palaeoclimate, in: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., and Miller, H. L., Cambridge University Press, United States, 433-497, 2007.
38. Jomelli, V., Favier, V., Rabatel, A., Brunstein, D., Hoffmann, G., and Francou, B.: Fluctuations of glaciers in the tropical Andes over the last millennium and palaeoclimatic implications: A review, Palaeogeogr. Palaeocl., 281, 269-282, 2009.
39. Jomelli, V., Khodri, M., Favier, V., Brunstein, D., Ledru, M.-P., Wagnon, P., Blard, P.-H., Sicart, J.-E., Braucher, R., Grancher, D., Bourlès, D. L., Braconnot, P., and Vuille, M.: Irregular tropical glacier retreat over the Holocene epoch driven by progressive warming, Nature, 474, 196-199, 2011.
40. Kistler, R., Kalnay, E., Collins, W., Saha, S., White, G., Woollen, J., Chelliah, M., Ebisuzaki, W., Kanamitsu, M., Kousky, V., Van den Dool, H., Jenne, R., and Fiorino, M.: The NCEP-NCAR 50-year reanalysis: monthly means CD-ROM and documentation, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 82, 247-267, 2001. (Pubitemid 33622659)
41. Le Quesne, C., Acuña, C., Boninsegna, J. A., Rivera, A., and Barichivich, J.: Long-term glacier variations in the Central Andes of Argentina and Chile, inferred from historical records and tree-ring reconstructed precipitation, Palaeogeogr. Palaeocl., 281, 334-344, 2009.
42. Lenters, J. D. and Cook, K. H.: On the origin of the Bolivian High and related circulation features of the South American climate, J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 656-677, 1997.
43. Lenters, J. D. and Cook, K. H.: Summertime Precipitation Variability over South America: Role of the Large-Scale Circulation, Mon. Weather Rev., 127, 409-431, 1999.
44. Li, J., Xie, S. P., Cook, E. R., Huang, G., D'Arrigo, R., Liu, F., Ma, J., and Zheng, X. T.: Interdecadal modulation of El Niño amplitude during the past millennium, Nature Climate Change, 1, 114-118, doi:10.1038/ nclimate1086, 2011.
45. Liu, K. B., Reese, C. A., and Thompson, L. G.: Ice-core pollen record of climatic changes in the central Andes during the last 400 yr, Quaternary Res., 64, 272-278, 2005. (Pubitemid 41235728)
46. Lohmann, G.: Linking data and models, Past Global Changes PAGES, 16, 4-5, 2008.
47. Meko, D. M.: Dendroclimatic reconstruction with time varying subsets of tree indices, J. Climate, 10, 687-696, 1997.
48. Messerli, B., Grosjean, M., and Vuille, M.: Water availability, protected areas, and natural resources in the Andean desert Altiplano, Mt. Res. Dev., 17, 229-238, 1997.
49. Messerli, B., Viviroli, D., and Weingartner, R.: Mountains of the world: Vulnerable water towers for the 21st century, Ambio, 13, 29-34, 2004. (Pubitemid 39520973)
50. Michaelsen, J.: Cross-validation in statistical climate forecast models, J. Clim. Appl. Meteorol., 26, 1589-1600, 1987.
51. Minvielle, M. and Garreaud, R.: Projecting rainfall changes over the South American Altiplano, J. Climate, 24, 4577-4583, 2011.
52. Mitchell, T. D. and Jones, P. D.: An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climatological observations and associated high-resolution grids, Int. J. Climatol., 25, 693-712, 2005. (Pubitemid 40815726)
53. Morales, M. S., Villalba, R., Grau, H. R., and Paolini, L.: Rainfall controlled tree growth in high elevation subtropical treelines, Ecology, 85, 3080-3089, 2004. (Pubitemid 39548047)
54. Nielsen, A. E.: Asentamientos, conflicto y cambio social en el Altiplano de Lípez (Potosí, Bolivia), Rev. Esp. Antropol. Am., 32, 179-205, 2002.
55. Núñez, L., Grosjean, M., and Cartagena, I.: Human occupations and climate change in the Puna de Atacama, Chile, Science, 298, 821-824, 2002. (Pubitemid 35231533)
56. Rabatel, A., Machaca, A., Francou, B., and Jomelli, V.: Glacier recession on Cerro Charquini (16?), Bolivia, since the maximum of the Little Ice Age (17th. century), J. Glaciol., 52, 110-118, 2006. (Pubitemid 43821420)
57. Ramirez, E., Francou, B., Ribstein, P., Desclô?tres, M., Guérin, R., Mendoza, J., Gallaire, R., Pouyaud, B., and Jordan, E.: Small glaciers disappearing in the tropical Andes. A case study in Bolivia: Glacier Chacaltaya (16? S), J. Glaciol., 47, 187-194, 2001. (Pubitemid 33119232)
58. Randall, D. A., Wood, R. A., Bony, S., Colman, R., Fichefet, T., Fyfe, J., Kattsov, V., Pitman, A., Shukla, J., Srinivasan, J., Stouf-fer, R. J., Sumi, A., and Taylor, K. E.: Climate Models and Their Evaluation, in: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., and Miller, H. L., Cambridge University Press, United States, 489-662, 2007.
59. Rodionov, S. N.: A sequential algorithm for testing climate regime shifts, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L09204, doi:10.1029/2004GL019448, 2004. (Pubitemid 39026600)
60. Schulman, E.: Dendroclimatic changes in semiarid America, Tucson, University of Arizona Press, 1956.
61. Solíz, C., Villalba, R., Argollo, J., Morales, M. S., Christie, D. A., Moya, J., and Pacajes, J.: Spatio-temporal variations in Polylepis tarapacana radial growth across the Bolivian Altiplano during the 20th century, Palaeogeogr. Palaeocl., 281, 296-330, 2009.
62. Smith, T., Reynolds, R., Peterson, T. C., and Lawrimore, J.: Improvements to NOAA's Historical Merged Land-Ocean Surface Temperature analysis (1880-2006), J. Climate, 21, 2283-2296, 2008. (Pubitemid 351844078)
63. Stokes, M. A. and Smiley, T. L.: An introduction to tree-ring dating, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1968.
64. Sutton, R. T. and Hodson, D. L. R.: Influence of the ocean on North Atlantic climate variability 1871-1999, J. Climate, 16, 3296-3313, 2003. (Pubitemid 37436390)
65. Tandeter, E.: Crisis in Upper Peru, 1800-1805, HAHR-Hisp. Am. Hist. R., 71, 35-71, 1991.
66. Tencer, B., Rusticucci, M., Jones P., and Lister, D.: A Southeastern South American Daily Gridded Dataset of Observed Surface Minimum and Maximum Temperature for 1961-2000, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 92, 1339-1346, doi:10.1175/2011BAMS3148.1, 2011.
67. Thompson, L., Mosley-Thompson, E., Bolzan., J. F. and Koci, B. R.: A 1500-Year Record of Tropical Precipitation in Ice Cores from the Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru, Science, 229, 971-973, 1985. (Pubitemid 17268529)
68. Thompson, L., Mosley-Thompson, E., Dansgaard, W., and Grootes, P. M.: The Little Ice Age as Recorded in the Stratigraphy of the Tropical Quelccaya Ice Cap, Science, 234, 361-364, doi:10.1126/science.234.4774.361, 1986. (Pubitemid 17266176)
69. Thompson, L. G., Mosley-Thompson, E., Davis, M. E., Lin, P. N., Henderson, K., and Mashiotta, T. A.: Tropical glacier and ice core evidence of climate change on annual to millennial time scales, Climatic Change, 59, 137-155, 2003. (Pubitemid 36914387)
70. Thompson, L. G., Mosley-Thompson, E., Brecher, H., Davis, M., León, B., Les, D., Lin, P. N., Mashiotta, T., and Mountain, K.: Abrupt tropical climate change: Past and present, P. Natl. Acad. Sci., 103, 10536-10543, 2006. (Pubitemid 44078013)
71. Torrence, C. and Compo, G.P.: A practical guide to wavelet analysis, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 79, 61-78, 1998. (Pubitemid 128494959)
72. Torrence, C. and Webster, P.: Interdecadal changes in the ENSO-Monsoon system, J. Climate, 12, 2679-2690, 1999. (Pubitemid 30024915)
73. Trenberth, K. E., Jones, P. D., Ambenje, P., Bojariu, R., Easterling, D., Klein Tank, A., Parker, D., Rahimzadeh, F., Renwick, J. A., Rusticucci, M., Soden, B., and Zhai, P.: Observations: Surface and Atmospheric Climate Change, in: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., and Miller, H. L., Cambridge University Press, United States, 235-336, 2007.
74. Urrutia, R. and Vuille, M.: Climate change projections for the tropical Andes using a regional climate model: Temperature and precipitation simulations for the end of the 21st century, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D02108, doi:10.1029/2008JD011021, 2009.
75. Vautard, R. and Ghil, M.: Singular spectrum analysis in nonlinear dynamics, with applications to paleoclimatic time series, Physica D, 35, 395-424, 1989.
76. Villalba, R., Grosjean, M., and Kiefer, T.: Long-term multi-proxy climate reconstructions and dynamics in South America (LOTRED-SA): State of the art and perspectives, Palaeogeogr. Palaeocl., 281, 309-319, 2009.
77. Villalba, R., Luckman, B. H., Boninsegna, J., D'Arrigo, R. D., Lara, A., Villanueva-Diaz J., Masiokas, M., Argollo, J., Solíz, C., LeQuesne, C., Stahle, D., Roig, F., Aravena, J. C., Wiles, G., Jacoby, G., Hartsough, P., Wilson, R. J. S., Watson, E., Cook, E. R., Cerano-Paredes, J., Therrell, M., Cleaveland, M., Morales, M. S., Moya, J., Pacajes, J., Massacchesi, G., Biondi, F., Urrutia, R., and Martinez Pastur, G.: Dendroclimatology from regional to continental scales: Understanding regional processes to reconstruct large-scale climatic variations across the Western Americas, in: Dendroclimatology: Progress and Prospects, edited by: Hughes, M., Swetnam, T., and Diaz, H., Springer, Dordrecht, Heidelberg, London, New York, 175-227, 2011.
78. Viviroli, D., Weingartner, R., and Messerli, B.: Assessing the hy-drological significance of the world's mountains, Mt. Res. Dev., 23, 32-40, 2003. (Pubitemid 36440379)
79. Vuille, M.: Atmospheric circulation over the Bolivian Altiplano during dry and wet periods and extreme phases of the Southern Oscillation, Int. J. Climatol., 19, 1579-1600, 1999. (Pubitemid 30061994)
80. Vuille, M. and Bradley, R.: Mean annual temperature trends and their vertical structure in the tropical Andes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 3885-3888, 2000. (Pubitemid 32152830)
81. Vuille, M. and Keimig, F.: Interannual variability of summertime convective cloudiness and precipitation in the central Andes derived from ISCCP-B3 data, J. Climate, 17, 3334-3348, 2004. (Pubitemid 39364854)
82. Vuille, M., Bradley, R. S., and Keimig, F.: Interannual climate variability in the Central Andes and its relation to tropical Pacific and Atlantic forcing, J. Geophys. Res., 105, 12447-12460, 2000.
83. Vuille, M., Bradley, R., Werner, M., and Keimig, F.: 20th century climate change in the tropical Andes: observations and model results, Climatic Change, 59, 75-99, 2003. (Pubitemid 36914384)
84. Vuille, M., Francou, B., Wagnon, P., Juen, I., Kaser, G., Mark, B., and Bradley, R.: Climate change and tropical Andean glaciers: Past, present and future, Earth-Sci Rev., 89, 79-96, 2008.
85. Weisberg, S.: Applied Linear Regression, John Wiley & Son, New York, 1985.
86. Wigley, T. M. L., Briffa, K. R., and Jones, P. D.: On the average value of correlated time series, with applications in dendrocli-matology and hydrometeorology, J. Clim. Appl. Meterol., 23, 201-213, 1984. (Pubitemid 14612231)