Graphical probabilistic analysis of the combination of items of evidence

Law, Probability and Risk

Volumn 11, Issue 1, 2012, Pages 51-84

  Juchli, P ^a   Biedermann, A ^a   Taroni, F ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF LAUSANNE   (Switzerland)

Author keywords

Bayesian networks; Combining items of evidence; Forensic science; Likelihood ratio

Indexed keywords

EID: 84858189410     PISSN: 14708396     EISSN: 1470840X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1093/lpr/mgr023     Document Type: Article

References (39)

1. C. G. G. Aitken, A. Gammerman, Probabilistic reasoning in evidential assessment, Journal of the Forensic Science Society 29 (1989) 303-316.
2. C. G. G. Aitken, D. A. Stoney, The Use of Statistics in Forensic Science, Ellis Horwood, New York, 1991.
3. C. G. G. Aitken, F. Taroni, Statistics and the Evaluation of Evidence for Forensic Scientists, 2nd Edition, John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, UK, 2004.
4. C. G. G. Aitken, F. Taroni, P. Garbolino, A graphical model for the evaluation of cross-transfer evidence in DNA profiles, Theoretical Population Biology 63 (2003) 179-190.
5. A. Biedermann, F. Taroni, A probabilistic approach to the joint evaluation of firearm evidence and gunshot residues, Forensic Science International 163 (2006) 18-33.
6. C. Champod, Edmond Locard - numerical standards & "probable"identifications, Journal of Forensic Identification 45 (1995) 136-163.
7. J. M. Curran, An introduction to Bayesian credible intervals for sampling error in DNA profiles, Law, Probability and Risk 4 (2005) 115-126.
8. A. P. Dawid, I. W. Evett, Using a graphical method to assist the evaluation of complicated patterns of evidence, Journal of Forensic Sciences 42 (1997) 226-231.
9. A. P. Dawid, J. Mortera, V. L. Pascali, D. van Boxel, Probabilistic expert systems for forensic inference from genetic markers, Scandinavian Journal of Statistics 29 (2002) 577-595.
10. A. P. Dawid, J. Mortera, P. Vicard, Object-oriented Bayesian networks for complex forensic DNA profiling problems, Forensic Science International 169 (2007) 195-205.
11. W. Edwards, Influence diagrams, Bayesian imperialism, and the Collins case: An appeal to reason, Cardozo Law Review 13 (1991) 1025-1074.
12. I. W. Evett, Evaluating DNA profiles in a case where the defence is "It was my brother", Journal of the Forensic Science Society 32 (1992) 5-14.
13. I. W. Evett, Establishing the evidential value of a small quantity of material found at a crime scene, Journal of the Forensic Science Society 33 (1993) 83-86.
14. I. W. Evett, P. D. Gill, G. Jackson, J. Whitaker, C. Champod, Interpreting small quantities of DNA: The hierarchy of propositions and the use of Bayesian networks, Journal of Forensic Sciences 47 (2002) 520-530.
15. I. W. Evett, J. A. Lambert, J. S. Buckleton, A Bayesian approach to interpreting footwear marks in forensic casework, Science & Justice 38 (1998) 241-247.
16. W. B. Fairley, W. Mosteller, A conversation about Collins, University of Chicago Law Review 41 (1974) 242-253.
17. S. E. Fienberg, When did Bayesian inference become "Bayesian"? Bayesian Analysis 1 (2003) 1-41.
18. R. D. Friedman, Assessing evidence, Michigan Law Review 94 (1996) 1810-1838.
19. P. Garbolino, F. Taroni, Evaluation of scientific evidence using Bayesian networks, Forensic Science Interna- tional 125 (2002) 149-155.
20. A. Hepler, A. P. Dawid, V. Leucari, Object-oriented graphical representations of complex patterns of evidence, Law, Probability and Risk 6 (2007) 275-293.
21. F. V. Jensen, T. D. Nielsen, Bayesian Networks and Decision Graphs, 2nd Edition, Springer, New York, 2007.
22. J. B. Kadane, D. A. Schum, A Probabilistic Analysis of the Sacco and Vanzetti Evidence, John Wiley & Sons, New York, 1996.
23. N. Köller, K. Niessen, M. Riess, E. Sadorf, Probability Conclusions in Expert Opinions on Handwriting. Substantiation and Standardization of Probability Statements in Expert Opinions, Luchterhand, München, Germany, 2004.
24. T. S. Levitt, K. Blackmond Laskey, Computational inference for evidential reasoning in support of judicial proof, Cardozo Law Review 22 (2001) 1691-1731.
25. D. V. Lindley, Understanding Uncertainty, John Wiley & Sons, Hoboken, NJ, 2006.
26. J. Mortera, Analysis of DNA mixtures using probabilistic expert systems, in: P. L. Green, N. L. Hjort, S. Richardson (Eds.), Highly Structured Stochastic Systems, Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK, 2003.
27. J. Mortera, A. P. Dawid, S. L. Lauritzen, Probabilistic expert systems for DNA mixture profiling, Theoretical Population Biology 63 (2003) 191-205.
28. J. Pearl, Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems: Networks of Plausible Inference, Morgan Kaufmann Publishers, Inc., San Mateo, CA, 1988.
29. Regina v. T, Court of Appeal - Criminal Division (2010).
30. B. Robertson, G. A. Vignaux, Probability - the logic of the law, Oxford Journal of Legal Studies 13 (1993) 457-478.
31. B. Robertson, G. A. Vignaux, Taking fact analysis seriously, Michigan Law Review 91 (1993) 1442-1464.
32. B. Robertson, G. A. Vignaux, Interpreting Evidence. Evaluating Forensic Science in the Courtroom, John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, UK, 1995.
33. D. A. Schum, Evidential Foundations of Probabilistic Reasoning, Northwestern University Press, Evanston, IL, 2001.
34. F. Taroni, C. G. G. Aitken, G. Garbolino, A. Biedermann, Bayesian Networks and Probabilistic Inference in Forensic Science, John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, UK, 2006.
35. F. Taroni, A. Biedermann, Inadequacies of posterior probabilities for the assessment of scientific evidence, Law, Probability and Risk 4 (2005) 89-114.
36. F. Taroni, S. Bozza, A. Biedermann, G. Garbolino, C. G. G. Aitken, C. G. G., Data Analysis in Forensic Science: A Bayesian Decision Perspective, John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, UK, 2010.
37. P. Thagart, Why wasn't O.J. convicted? Emotional coherence and legal inference, Cognition and Emotion 17 (2003) 361-383.
38. J. H. Wigmore, The problem of proof, Illinois Law Review 8 (1913) 77-103.
39. J. H. Wigmore, The Science of Judicial Proof: As Given by Logic, Psychology, and General Experience and Illustrated in Judicial Trials, 3rd Edition, Little, Brown, Boston, MA, 1937.