Observed and modeled twentieth-century spatial and temporal patterns of selected agro-climate indices in North America

Journal of Climate

Volumn 25, Issue 2, 2012, Pages 473-490

  Terando, Adam ^a,c   Easterling, William E ^a   Keller, Klaus ^a   Easterling, David R ^b  

^a PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER   (United States)

^c NORTH CAROLINA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Agriculture; Climate models; Indices; Model comparison; Regional effects; Trends

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE SYSTEM; FROST DAYS; GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL; HEAT STRESS; INDICES; INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGES; MODEL COMPARISON; MODEL PHYSICS; PREDICTIVE UNCERTAINTY; REGIONAL CLIMATE; REGIONAL COOLING; REGIONAL EFFECTS; SPATIAL VARIABILITY; TEMPORAL PATTERN; TEMPORAL TRENDS; TRENDS; WEIGHTING SCHEME;

AGRICULTURE; CLIMATE CHANGE; COMPUTER SIMULATION; THERMAL STRESS;

CLIMATE MODELS;

CLIMATE FORCING; CLIMATE MODELING; GLOBAL WARMING; INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE; TREND ANALYSIS; TWENTIETH CENTURY;

NORTH AMERICA;

EID: 84856950802     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/2011JCLI4168.1     Document Type: Article

References (72)

1. Amante, C., and B. W. Eakins, 2009: ETOPO1 1 arc-minute global relief model: Procedures, data sources and analysis. NOAA Tech. Memo. NESDIS NGDC-24, 19 pp.
2. Barnett, T. P., D. W. Pierce, and R. Schnur, 2001: Detection of anthropogenic climate change in the world's oceans. Science, 292, 270-274.
3. Battisti, D. S., and R. L. Naylor, 2009: Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat. Science, 323, 240-244.
4. Benjamini, Y., and Y. Hochberg, 1995: Controlling the false discovery rate: A practical and powerful approach to multiple testing. J. Roy. Stat. Soc., 57B, 289-300.
5. Bretherton, F. P., R. E. Davis, and C. B. Fandry, 1976:A technique for objective analysis and design of oceanographic experiments applied to mode-73. Deep-Sea Res., 23, 559-582.
6. Brockwell, P. J., and R. A. Davis, 1996: Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting. Springer, 420 pp.
7. Brohan, P., J. J. Kennedy, I. Harris, S. F. B. Tett, and P. D. Jones, 2006: Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: A new data set from 1850. J. Geophys. Res., 111, D12106, doi:10.1029/2005JD006548.
8. Budikova, D., 2009: Role of Arctic sea ice in global atmospheric circulation: A review. Global Planet. Change, 68, 149-163.
9. Caesar, J., L. Alexander, and R. Vose, 2006: Large-scale changes in observed daily maximum and minimum temperatures: Creation and analysis of a new gridded data set. J. Geophys. Res., 111, D05101, doi:10.1029/2005JD006280.
10. Cayan, D. R., S. A. Kammerdiener, M. D. Dettinger, J.M. Caprio, and D. H. Peterson, 2001: Changes in the onset of spring the western United States. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 82, 399-415.
11. Christensen, J. H., and Coauthors, 2007: Regional climate projections. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, S. Solomon et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 847-940.
12. Christidis, N., P. A. Stott, S. Brown, D. J. Karoly, and J. Caesar, 2007: Human contribution to the lengthening of the growing season during 1950-99. J. Climate, 20, 5441-5454.
13. Coehlo, D. T., and R. F. Dale, 1980: An energy-crop growth variable and temperature function for predicting corn growth and development: Planting to silking. Agron. J., 72, 503-510.
14. Covey, C., K. M. AchutaRao, U. Cubasch, P. Jones, S. J. Lambert, M. E. Mann, T. J. Phillips, and K. E. Taylor, 2003: An overview of results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Global Planet. Change, 37, 103-133.
15. Cressie, N., 1993: Statistics for Spatial Data. Revised ed. Wiley, 900 pp.
16. Draper, D., 1995: Assessment and propagation of model uncertainty. J. Roy. Stat. Soc., 57B, 45-97.
17. Durre, I., M. J. Menne, B. E. Gleason, T. G. Houston, and R. S. Vose, 2010: Comprehensive automated quality assurance of daily surface observations. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 49, 1615-1633.
18. Easterling, D. R., 2002: Recent changes in frost days and the frostfree season in the United States. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83, 1327-1332.
19. Easterling, D. R., and Coauthors, 2002: Maximum and minimum temperature trends for the globe. Science, 277, 364-367.
20. Easterling, W. E., and Coauthors, 2007: Food, fibre and forest products. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, M. L. Parry et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 273-313.
21. Feng, S., and Q. Hu, 2004: Changes in agro-meteorological indicators in the contiguous Unites States: 1951-2000. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 78, 247-264.
22. Fields Development Team, cited 2006: Fields: Tools for spatial data. [Available online at http://www.image.ucar.edu/GSP/ Software/Fields/.]
23. Francis, J. A., W. Chan, D. J. Leathers, J. R. Miller, and D. E. Veron, 2009: Winter Northern Hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea-ice extent. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L07503, doi:10.1029/2009GL037274.
24. Frich, P., L. V. Alexander, P. Della-Marta, B. Gleason, M. Haylock, A. M. G. Klein Tank, and T. Peterson, 2002: Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century. Climate Res., 19, 193-212.
25. Goldstein, A. H., C. D. Koven, C. L. Heald, and I. Y. Fung, 2009: Biogenic carbon and anthropogenic pollutants combine to form a cooling haze over the southeastern United States. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 106, 8835-8840.
26. Hagedorn, R., F. J. Doblas-Reyes, and T. N. Palmer, 2005: The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting - I. Basic concept. Tellus, 57A, 219-233.
27. Harvey, A. C., 1993: Time Series Models. 2nd ed. MIT Press, 308 pp.
28. Haylock, M. R., N. Hofstra, A. M. G. Klein Tank, E. J. Klok, P. D. Jones, and M. New, 2008: A European daily high-resolution gridded data set of surface temperature and precipitation for 1950-2006. J. Geophys. Res., 113, D20119, doi:10.1029/ 2008JD010201.
29. Haywood, J., and O. Boucher, 2000: Estimates of the direct and indirect radiative forcing due to tropospheric aerosols: A review. Rev. Geophys., 38, 513-543.
30. Jones, P. D., M. New, D. E. Parker, S. Martin, and I. G. Rigor, 1999: Surface air temperature and its changes over the past 150 years. Rev. Geophys., 37, 173-199.
31. Karl, T. R., and Coauthors, 1993: A new perspective on recent global warming: Asymmetric trends of daily maximum and minimum temperature. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 74, 1007-1023.
32. Kiktev, D., D. M. H. Sexton, L. Alexander, and C. K. Folland, 2003: Comparison of modeled and observed trends in indices of daily climate extremes. J. Climate, 16, 3560-3571.
33. Kunkel, K. E., D. R. Easterling, K. Hubbard, and K. Redmond, 2004: Temporal variations in frost-free season in the United States: 1895-2000. Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L03201, doi:10.1029/ 2003GL018624.
34. Kunkel, K. E., X.-Z. Liang, Z. Jinhong, and Y. Lin, 2006: Can CGCMs simulate the twentieth-century "warming hole" in the central United States? J. Climate, 19, 4137-4153.
35. Lobell, D. B., and G. P. Asner, 2003: Climate and management contributions to recent trends in U.S. agricultural yields. Science, 299, 1032.
36. Lobell, D. B., and C. B. Field, 2007: Global scale climate-crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming. Environ. Res. Lett., 2, 1-7.
37. Lobell, D. B., W. Schlenker, and J. Costa-Roberts, 2011: Climate trends and global crop production since 1980. Science, 333, 616-620.
38. Maurer, E. P., A. W. Wood, J. C. Adam, and D. P. Lettenmaier, 2002:Along-term hydrologically based dataset of land surface fluxes and states for the conterminous United States. J. Climate, 15, 3237-3251.
39. Meehl, G. A., and Coauthors, 2000: An introduction to trends in extreme weather and climate events: Observations, socioeconomic impacts, terrestrial ecological impacts, and model projections. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 81, 413-416.
40. Meehl, G. A., C. Tebaldi, and D. Nychka, 2004: Changes in frost days in simulations of twenty-first century climate. Climate Dyn., 23, 495-511.
41. Meehl, G. A., J. M. Arblaster, and C. Tebaldi, 2005: Understanding future patterns of increased precipitation intensity in climate model simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L18719, doi:10.1029/ 2005GL023680.
42. Meehl, G. A., C. Covey, T. Delworth, M. Latif, B. McAvaney, J. F. B. Mitchell, R. J. Stouffer, and K. E. Taylor, 2007: The WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset: A new era in climate change research. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 88, 1383-1394.
43. Meehl, G. A., and Coauthors, 2009: Decadal prediction: Can it be skillful? Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 90, 1467-1485.
44. Muchow, R. C., T. R. Sinclair, and J. M. Bennett, 1990: Temperature and solar radiation effects on potential maize yield across locations. Agron. J., 82, 338-343.
45. Neild, R. E., and J. E. Newman, cited 1986: Growing season characteristics and requirements in the Corn Belt. [Available online at http://www.ces.purdue.edu/extmedia/nch/nch-40.html.]
46. O'Brien, T. P., D. Sornette, and R. L. McPherron, 2001: Statistical asynchronous regression: Determining the relationship between two quantities that are not measured simultaneously. J. Geophys. Res., 106, 13 427-13 259.
47. Pan, Z., R.W.Arritt, E. S. Takle, W. J. Gutowski Jr., C. J.Anderson, and M. Segal, 2004: Altered hydrologic feedback in a warming climate introduces a "warming hole." Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L17109, doi:10.1029/2004GL020528.
48. Penner, J. E., and Coauthors, 1994: Quantifying and minimizing uncertainty of climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 75, 375-400.
49. Portmann, R. W., S. Solomon, and G. C. Hegerl, 2009: Spatial and seasonal patterns in climate change, temperatures, and precipitation across the United States. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 106, 7324-7329.
50. Qian, B., S. Gameda, R. De Jong, P. Falloon, and J. Gornall, 2010: Comparing scenarios of Canadian daily climate extremes derived using a weather generator. Climate Res., 41, 131-149.
51. Raftery, A. E., T. Gneiting, F. Balabdaoui, and M. Polakowski, 2005: Using Bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 1155-1174.
52. Randall, D. A., and Coauthors, 2007: Climate models and their evaluation. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, S. Solomon et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 589-662.
53. R Development Core Team, cited 2008: R: A language and environment for statistical computing. [Available online at http:// www.R-project.org.]
54. Robeson, S., 2004: Trends in time-varying percentiles of daily minimum and maximum temperature over North America. Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L04203, doi:10.1029/2003GL019019.
55. Robock, A., and J. Mao, 1995: The volcanic signal in surface temperature observations. J. Climate, 8, 1086-1103.
56. Schlenker, W., and M. J. Roberts, 2009: Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to U.S. crop yields under climate change. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 106, 15 594-15 598.
57. Schmittner, A., M. Latif, and B. Schneider, 2005: Model projections of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation for the 21st century assessed by observations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L23710, doi:10.1029/2005GL024368.
58. Schneider, B., M. Latif, and A. Schmittner, 2007: Evaluation of different methods to assess model projections of the future evolution of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. J. Climate, 20, 2121-2132.
59. Schwartz, M. D., R. Ahas, and A. Aasa, 2006: Onset of spring starting earlier across theNorthern Hemisphere. Global Change Biol., 12, 343-351.
60. Shumway, R. H., and D. S. Stoffer, 2006: Time Series Analysis and Its Applications. 2nd ed. Springer, 575 pp.
61. Smith, T. M., and R. W. Reynolds, 2005: A global merged land and sea surface temperature reconstruction based on historical observations (1880-1997). J. Climate, 18, 2021-2036.
62. Stephens, C., S. Levitus, J. Antonov, and T. P. Boyer, 2001: On the Pacific Ocean regime shift. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 3721-3724.
63. Taylor, K. E., 2001: Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram. J. Geophys. Res., 106, 7183-7192.
64. Tebaldi, C., and R. Knutti, 2007: The use of the multimodel ensemble in probabilistic climate projections. Philos. Trans. Roy. Soc. London, 365A, 2053-2075.
65. Tebaldi, C., and D. B. Lobell, 2008: Towards probabilistic projections of climate change impacts on global crop yields. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L08705, doi:10.1029/2008GL033423.
66. Tebaldi, C., L. O. Mearns, D. Nychka, and R. L. Smith, 2004: Regional probabilities of precipitation change: A Bayesian analysis of multimodel simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L24213, doi:10.1029/2004GL021276.
67. Tebaldi, C., K. Hayhoe, J. M. Arblaster, and G. A. Meehl, 2006: Going to the extremes: An intercomparison of model-simulated historical and future changes in extreme events. Climatic Change, 79, 185-211.
68. Tollenaar, M., and R. B. Hunter, 1983: A photoperiod and temperature sensitive period for leaf number of maize. Crop Sci., 23, 457-460.
69. Urban, N. M., and K. Keller, 2009: Complementary observational constraints on climate sensitivity. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L04708, doi:10.1029/2008GL036457.
70. USDA, 2009: 2007 Census of Agriculture. National Agricultural Statistics Service, 739 pp. [Available online at http://www. agcensus.usda.gov/Publications/2007/Full_Report/usv1.pdf.]
71. Wilhelm, E. P., R. E. Mullen, P. L. Keeling, and G. W. Singletary, 1999: Heat stress during grain filling in maize: Effects on kernel growth and metabolism. Crop Physiol. Metab., 39, 1733-1741.
72. Willmott, C. J., R. E. Davis, J. J. Feddema, K. M. Klink, D. R. Legates, C. M. Rowe, S. G. Ackleson, and J. O'Donnell, 1985: Statistics for the evaluation and comparison of models. J. Geophys. Res., 90, 8995-9005.