Risk modelling of maintenance work on major process equipment on offshore petroleum installations

Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries

Volumn 25, Issue 2, 2012, Pages 274-292

  Vinnem, J E ^a   Bye, R ^b   Gran, B A ^c   Kongsvik, T ^b   Nyheim, O M ^c   Okstad, E H ^d   Seljelid, J ^c   Vatn, J ^d  

^a UNIVERSITY OF STAVANGER   (Norway)

^b NORWEGIAN UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY   (Norway)

^c Safetec Nordic AS   (Norway)

^d SINTEF TECHNOLOGY AND SOCIETY   (Norway)

Author keywords

Bayesian belief network; Loss of containment; Operational barriers; Organizational factors; Process equipment maintenance; Risk analysis

Indexed keywords

EVENT PROBABILITY; EVENT TREES; FAULT-TREES; GENERIC MODELS; HUMAN ERROR PROBABILITY; INFLUENCING FACTOR; LOSS OF CONTAINMENT; MAINTENANCE WORK; MAJOR ACCIDENTS; MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS; OFFSHORE OIL; OFFSHORE PETROLEUM; OPERATIONAL BARRIERS; ORGANIZATIONAL ASPECTS; ORGANIZATIONAL FACTORS; PROCESS EQUIPMENTS; QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS; TECHNICAL SAFETY;

ACCIDENTS; BAYESIAN NETWORKS; HYDROCARBON REFINING; HYDROCARBONS; MAINTENANCE; OFFSHORE OIL WELL PRODUCTION; OFFSHORE PETROLEUM PROSPECTING; PROBABILITY; PRODUCTION PLATFORMS; RISK ANALYSIS; RISK PERCEPTION;

RISK ASSESSMENT;

EID: 84856229639     PISSN: 09504230     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2011.11.001     Document Type: Article

References (50)

1. Aldenryd S.H., Jensen K.B., Nielsen L.B. Hugin run-time for MS-Windows, tool made by Hugin expert a/s 1993, Aalborg, Available. http://www.hugin.dk.
2. Ale B.J.M., Bellamy L.J., van der Boom R., Cooper J., Cooke R.M., Goossens L.H.J., et al. Further development of a causal model for air transport safety (CATS): building the mathematical heart. Reliability Engineering & System Safety September 2009, 94(9):1433-1441.
3. Aven T., Sklet S., Vinnem J.E. Barrier and operational risk analysis of hydrocarbon releases (BORA-Release); part I method description. Journal of Hazardous Materials 2006, A137:681-691.
4. Bird F.E., Germain G.L. Loss control management: Practical loss control leadership 1996, Revised Edition, Det Norske Veritas, U.S.A.
5. Blackman H.S., Gertman D.I. Human reliability & safety analysis data handbook 1994.
6. Cepin M. DEPEND-HRA-A method for consideration of dependency in human reliability analysis. Reliability Engineering & System Safety October 2008, 93(10):1452-1460.
7. Chen, H., Moan, T., & Vinnem, J. E. (2007). Safety of shuttle tanker offshore loading operations with emphasis on the human barrier. Presented at ESREL2007, Stavanger, 25-27 June, 2007.
8. Embrey D.E., Humphreys P., Rosa E.A., Kirwan B., Rea K. SLIM-MAUD: An approach to assessing human error probabilities using structured expert judgment 1984, NUREG/CR-3518.
9. Forester J., Kolaczkowski A., Cooper S., Bley D., Louis E. ATHENA user's guide final report June 2007, NUREG-1880.
10. Gertman D., Blackman H., Marble J., Byers J., Smith C. The SPAR-H human reliability analysis method September 2004, U.S. Nuclear regulatory commission report NUREG/CR-6883, INL/EXT-05.00509.
11. Gran B.A. Use of Bayesian belief networks when combining disparate sources of information in the safety assessment of software based systems. International Journal of Systems Science 2002, 33(6):529-542.
12. Gran, B. A., Bye, R., Nyheim, O. M., Okstad, E. H., Seljelid, J., Sklet, S., etal. (submitted for publication). Evaluation of the risk model of maintenance work on major process equipment on offshore petroleum installations.
13. Groth K., Wang C., Mosleh A. Hybrid causal methodology and software platform for probabilistic risk assessment and safety monitoring of socio-technical systems original research article. Reliability Engineering & System Safety December 2010, 95(12):1276-1285.
14. Haugen S., Seljelid J., Sklet S., Vinnem J.E., Aven T. Operational risk analysis - Total analysis of physical and non-physical barriers 2007, H3.1 Generalisation Report.
15. Hokstad P., Øien K., Reinertsen R. Recommendations on the use of expert judgment in safety and reliability engineering studies. Two offshore case studies. Reliability Engineering & System Safety 1998, 61:65-76.
16. Jensen F. An introduction to Bayesian network 1996, UCL Press, University College London.
17. Kirwan B. Aguide to practical human reliability assessment 1994.
18. Kirwan B. Human factors & human reliability in offshore systems May 11-13, 1998, Course for SINTEF, Trondheim.
19. Kongsvik T., Johnsen S.Å., Sklet S. Safety climate and hydrocarbon leaks: an empirical contribution to the leading-lagging indicator discussion. Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries 2011, 24:405-411.
20. Larsen M.L., Søyland A. Operational safety condition. A literature study 2006, NTNU Social Research, Trondheim, (in Norwegian only).
21. Lamvik, G. M., & Ravn, J. E. (2006). National culture and safety performance - offshore drilling. Presented at ESREL2006, Estoril, Portugal, 18-22 September, 2006.
22. Le Bot P. Human reliability data, human error and accident models - illustration through the Three Mile Island accident analysis. RESS 2004, 83:153-167.
23. Mohaghegh Z., Kazemi R., Mosleh A. Incorporating organizational factors into Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of complex socio-technical systems: a hybrid technique formalization. Reliability Engineering & System Safety May 2009, 94(5):1000-1018.
24. Mohaghegh Z., Mosleh A. Incorporating organizational factors into probabilistic risk assessment of complex socio-technical systems. Principles and Theoretical Foundations Safety Science October 2009, 47(8):1139-1158.
25. Mohaghegh Z., Mosleh A. Measurement techniques for organizational safety causal models: characterization and suggestions for enhancements original research article. Safety Science December 2009, 47(10):1398-1409.
26. Montara Commission of Inquiry Report of the Montara commission of inquiry, Commissioner David Borthwick AO PSM June 2010, http://www.ret.gov.au/Department/Documents/MIR/Montara-Report.pdf.
27. Nyheim, O. M., Gran, B. A., Pedersen, L. M., & Seljelid, J. (2010). Use of Bayesian network for modeling risk influencing factors, Presented at ESREL2010, Rhodes, Greece, 5-9 September, 2010.
28. Øien K. Risk indicators as a tool for risk control. Reliability Engineering & System Safety (RESS) November 2001, 74(2):147-167.
29. Okstad, E., Sørli, F., Wagnild, B. R., Skogdalen, J. E., Haugen, S., Seljelid, J., etal. (2009). Human and organizational factors effect on safety barriers in well operations. Presented at IADC drilling HSE Europe conference, 23-24 September, 2009, Amsterdam.
30. Pearl J. Probabilistic reasoning in intelligent systems: Networks for plausible inference 1988, Morgan Kaufman.
31. Podofillini, L., Dang, V. N., Baraldi, P., Conti, M., & Zio, E. (2009). A review of decision tree models for assessing Human Reliability Analysis dependence. Presented at ESREL2009, Prague, 7-10 September, 2009.
32. PSA Investigation of gas blowout on Snorre A 2004, Well 24/7-P31A 28 November 2004, 10.3.2005. http://www.ptil.no/getfile.php/z%20Konvertert/Health%2C%20safety%20and%20environment/Supervision/Dokumenter/snaendeligrapporteng_v04_low.pdf.
33. Rausand, M., & Høyland, A. (2004). System reliability theory: Models, statistical methods, and applications. Wiley-IEEE.
34. Røed W., Mosleh A., Vinnem J.E., Aven T. On the use of the hybrid causal logic method in offshore risk analysis. Reliability Engineering & System Safety February 2009, 94(2):445-455.
35. Reason J. Human error 1990, Cambridge University Press.
36. Reason J. Managing the risks of organizational accidents 1997.
37. Sklet, S., Ringstad, A. J., Steen, S. A., Tronstad, L., Haugen, S., Seljelid, J., etal. (2010). Monitoring of human and organizational factors influencing risk of major accidents. SPE International conference on health, safety and environment in oil and gas exploration and production, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 12-14 April, 2010.
38. Statoil Investigation report, well control incident on Gullfaks C 2010, (in Norwegian, with English summary), Report no A EPN L1 2010-2, 4.11.2010.
39. Swain A.D., Guttmann H.E. Handbook of human reliability analysis with emphasis on nuclear power plant applications 1983, U.S. Nuclear regulatory commission report NUREG/CR-1278, SAND80-020, August 1983.
40. The National Academies Interim report on causes of the deepwater Horizon Oil rig blowout and ways to present such events November 16, 2010, National Academy of Engineering and National Research Council. http://www.nationalacademies.org/includes/DH_Interim_Report_final.pdf.
41. Vinnem J.E. Risk indicators for major hazards on offshore installations. Safety Science 2010, 48:770-787.
42. Vinnem, J. E., Aven, T., Hundseid, H., Vassmyr, K-A., Vollen, F., & Øien, K. (2003a). Risk assessment for offshore installations in the operational phase. Presented at the ESREL 2003, Maastrict, 16-18 June, 2003.
43. Vinnem, J. E., Hokstad, P., Dammen, T., Sæle, H., Chen, H., Haver, S. (2003b). Operational safety analysis of FPSO - shuttle tanker collision risk reveals areas of improvement. Presented at offshore technology conference, Houston, 5-8 May, 2003.
44. Vinnem J.E., Aven T., Husebø T., Seljelid J., Tveit O. Major hazard risk indicators for monitoring of trends in the Norwegian offshore petroleum sector. Reliability Engineering & System Safety 2006, 91(7):778-791.
45. Vinnem, J. E., Seljelid, J., Haugen, S., & Husebø, T. (2007). Analysis of hydrocarbon leaks on offshore installations. Presented at ESREL2007, Stavanger, 25-27 June, 2007.
46. Vinnem J.E., Seljelid J., Haugen S., Sklet S., Aven T. Generalised methodology for operational risk analysis of offshore installations. Journal of Risk and Reliability 2009, 223(1):87-97.
47. Vinnem, J. E., Veire, G., Heide, B., & Aven, T. (2004) A method for developing and structuring risk activity indicators for major accidents. Presented at PSAM7, Berlin, 14-18 June, 2004.
48. WGRisk Proceedings of the international workshop building the new HRA: Errors of commission - From research to application 2001, Rockville, Maryland, USA May 7-9 2001, Working Group on Risk Assessment.
49. Williams, J. C.(1986) HEART: a proposed method for assessing and reducing human error. Proceedings of the ninth advances in reliability technology symposium, University of Bradford.
50. Williams, J. C. (1988). A data-based method for assessing and reducing human error to improve operational performance, human factors and power plants. Conference record for 1988 IEEE fourth conference, 5-9 June, 1988.