Seasonal rainfall prediction skill over South Africa: One- versus two-tiered forecasting systems

Weather and Forecasting

Volumn 27, Issue 2, 2012, Pages 489-501

  Landman, Willem A ^a   Dewitt, David ^b   Lee, Dong Eun ^b   Beraki, Asmerom ^c   Lötter, Daleen ^d  

^a UNIVERSITY OF PRETORIA   (South Africa)

^b Earth Institute   (United States)

^c SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE   (South Africa)

^d DSI CSIR Nanotechnology Innovation Centre   (South Africa)

Author keywords

Climate prediction; Coupled models; General circulation models; Operational forecasting; Seasonal forecasting

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE PREDICTION; COUPLED MODELS; GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; OPERATIONAL FORECASTING; SEASONAL FORECASTING;

CLIMATE MODELS; CLIMATOLOGY; RAIN;

WEATHER FORECASTING;

ACCURACY ASSESSMENT; ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN COUPLING; ATMOSPHERIC GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; DOWNSCALING; GEOPOTENTIAL; PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT; PREDICTION; PROBABILITY; RAINFALL; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; SEASONAL VARIATION; WEATHER FORECASTING;

SOUTH AFRICA;

EID: 84855457959     PISSN: 08828156     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-11-00078.1     Document Type: Article

References (57)

1. Barnett, T. P., M. Latif, N. E. Graham, M. Flugel, S. Pazan, and W. B. White, 1993: ENSO and ENSO-related predictability. Part I: Prediction of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature with a hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J. Climate, 6, 1545-1566.
2. Barnston, A. G., W. Thiao, and V. Kumar, 1996: Long-lead forecasts of seasonal precipitation in Africa using CCA. Wea. Forecasting, 11, 506-520.
3. Brown, B. H., and A. H. Murphy, 1996: Improving forecasting performance by combining forecasts: The example of roadsurface temperature forecasts. Meteor. Appl., 3, 257-265.
4. Copsey, D., R. Sutton, and J. R. Knight, 2006: Recent trends in sea level pressure in the Indian Ocean region. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L19712, doi:10.1029/2006GL027175.
5. DeWitt, D. G., 2005: Retrospective forecasts of interannual sea surface temperature anomalies from 1982 to present using a directly coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 2972-2995.
6. Engelbrecht, F. A., J. L. McGregor, and C. J. deW. Rautenbach, 2007: On the development of a new nonhydrostatic atmospheric model in South Africa. S. Afr. J. Sci., 103, 127-134.
7. Gates, W. L., 1992: AMIP: The AtmosphericModel Intercomparison Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 73, 1962-1970.
8. Goddard, L., and N. E. Graham, 1999: Importance of the Indian Ocean for simulating rainfall anomalies over eastern and southern Africa. J. Geophys. Res., 104 (D16), 19 099-19 116.
9. Goddard, L., and S. J. Mason, 2002: Sensitivity of seasonal climate forecasts to persisted SST anomalies. Climate Dyn., 19, 619-631.
10. Graham, R. J., A. D. L. Evans, K. R. Milne, M. S. J. Harrison, and K. B. Robertson, 2000: As assessment of seasonal predictability using atmospheric general circulation models. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 126, 2211-2240.
11. Graham, R. J., M. Gordon, P. J. McLean, S. Ineson, M. R. Huddleston, M.K. Davey, A. Brookshaw, and R. T. H. Barnes, 2005: A performance comparison of coupled and uncoupled versions of the Met Office seasonal prediction general circulation model. Tellus, 57A, 320-319.
12. Hamill, T. M., 1997: Reliability diagrams for multicategory probabilistic forecasts. Wea. Forecasting, 12, 736-741.
13. Hurrel, J., G. A. Meehl, D. Bader, T. L. Delworth, B. Kirtman, and B. Wielicki, 2009: A unified modeling approach to climate system prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 90, 1819-1832.
14. Jha, B., and A. Kumar, 2009: A comparison of the atmospheric response to ENSO in coupled and uncoupled model simulations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 479-487.
15. Jury, M. R., 1996: Regional teleconnection patterns associated with summer rainfall over South Africa, Namibia and Botswana. Int. J. Climatol., 16, 135-153.
16. Jury, M. R., H. M. Mulenga, and S. J. Mason, 1999: Exploratory longrange models to estimate summer climate variability over southern Africa. J. Climate, 12, 1892-1899.
17. Kirtman, B. P., J. Shukla, B. Huang, Z. Zhu, and E. K. Schneider, 1997: Multiseasonal predictions with a coupled ocean-global atmosphere system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 789-808.
18. Klopper, E., W. A. Landman, and J. van Heerden, 1998: The predictability of seasonal maximum temperature in South Africa. Int. J. Climatol., 18, 741-758.
19. Landman, W. A., and S. J. Mason, 1999: Operational long-lead prediction of South African rainfall using canonical correlation analysis. Int. J. Climatol., 19, 1073-1090.
20. Landman, W. A., and S. J. Mason, 2001: Forecasts or near-global sea surface temperatures using canonical correlation analysis. J. Climate, 14, 3819-3833.
21. Landman, W. A., and L. Goddard, 2002: Statistical recalibration of GCM forecast over southern Africa using model output statistics. J. Climate, 15, 2038-2055.
22. Landman, W. A., and A. Beraki, 2012: Multi-model forecast skill formid-summer rainfall over southern Africa. Int. J. Climatol., 32, 303-314.
23. Landman, W. A., S. J. Mason, P. D. Tyson, and W. J. Tennant, 2001: Retroactive skill of multi-tiered forecasts of summer rainfall over southern Africa. Int. J. Climatol., 21, 1-19.
24. Landman, W. A., S. Botes, L. Goddard, and M. Shongwe, 2005: Assessing the predictability of extreme rainfall seasons over southern Africa. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L23818, doi:10.1029/2005GL023965.
25. Landman, W. A., F. Engelbrecht, A.Beraki, C. Engelbrecht, M.Mbedzi, T.Gill, and L. Ntsangwane, 2009a: Model output statistics applied to multi-model ensemble long-range forecasts over South Africa. Water Research Commission Rep. 1492/1/08, 56 pp.
26. Landman, W. A., M.-J. Kgatuke, M. Mbedzi, A. Beraki, A. Bartman, and A. du Piesanie, 2009b: Performance comparison of some dynamical and empirical downscaling methods for South Africa from a seasonal climate modelling perspective. Int. J. Climatol., 29, 1535-1549.
27. Landman, W. A., D. DeWitt, and D.-E. Lee, 2011: The high-resolution global SST forecast set of the CSIR. Proc. 27th Annual Conf. of South African Society for Atmospheric Sciences, Hartbeespoort, North-West Province, South Africa, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, 39-40.
28. Li, S., L. Goddard, and D. G. DeWitt, 2008: Predictive skill of AGCM seasonal climate forecasts subject to different SST prediction methodologies. J. Climate, 21, 2169-2186.
29. Mason, S. J., 1995: Sea-surface temperature-South African rainfall associations, 1910-1989. Int. J. Climatol., 15, 119-135.
30. Mason, S. J., 1998: Seasonal forecasting of South African rainfall using a non-linear discriminant analysis model. Int. J. Climatol., 18, 147-164.
31. Mason, S. J., and N. E. Graham, 2002: Areas beneath the relative operating characteristics (ROC) and levels (ROL) curves: Statistical significance and interpretation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 128, 2145-2166.
32. McGregor, J. L., 2005: CCAM: Geometric aspects and dynamical formulation. CSIRO Tech. Paper 701, 44 pp.
33. McGregor, J. L., H. B. Gordon, I.G.Watterson, M. R.Dix, and L.D. Rotstayn, 1993: The CSIRO 9-level atmospheric general circulation model. CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research Tech. Paper 26, 89 pp.
34. Meehl, G. A., J. M. Arblaster, D. M. Lawrence, A. Seth, E. K. Schneider, B. P. Kirtman, and D. Min, 2006: Monsoon regimes in the CCSM3. J. Climate, 19, 2482-2495.
35. Ndiaye, O., M. N. Ward, and W. M. Thiaw, 2011: Predictability of seasonal Sahel rainfall using GCMs and lead-time improvements through the use of a coupled model. J. Climate, 24, 1931-1949.
36. Pacanowski, R. C., and S. M. Griffies, 1998: MOM 3.0 manual. NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, 608 pp.
37. Palmer, T. N., and Coauthors, 2004: Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction (DEMETER). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, 853-872.
38. Pope, V. D., M. Gallani, P. R. Rowntree, and R. A. Stratton, 2000: The impact of new physical parametrizations in the Hadley Centre climate model-HadAM3. Climate Dyn., 16, 123-146.
39. Power, S., M. Haylock, R. Colman, and X. Wang, 2006: The predictability of interdecadal changes in ENSO activity and ENSO teleconnections. J. Climate, 19, 4755-4771.
40. Reason, C. J. C., 1999: Interannual warm and cool events in the subtropical/mid-latitude south Indian Ocean. Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 215-218.
41. Reason, C. J. C., and D. Jagadheesha, 2005: Relationships between South Atlantic SST and atmospheric circulation over the South African region during austral winter. J. Climate, 18, 3339-3355.
42. Reason, C. J. C., and M. Rouault, 2005: Links between the Antarctic Oscillation and winter rainfall over western South Africa. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L07705, doi:10.1029/2005GL022419.
43. Roeckner, E., and Coauthors, 1996: Simulation of present-day climate with the ECHAM4 model: Impact of model physics and resolution. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Rep. 93, 171 pp.
44. Rouault, M., and Y. Richard, 2005: Intensity and spatial extent of droughts in southern Africa. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L15702, doi:10.1029/2005GL022436.
45. Saha, S., and Coauthors, 2006: The NCEP Climate Forecast System. J. Climate, 19, 3483-3517.
46. Shongwe, M. E., W. A. Landman, and S. J. Mason, 2006: Performance of recalibration systems for GCM forecasts for southern Africa. Int. J. Climatol., 26, 1567-1585.
47. Stockdale, T. N., D. L. T. Anderson, J. O. S. Alves, and M. A. Balmaseda, 1998: Global seasonal rainfall forecasts using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Nature, 392, 370-373.
48. Tennant, W. J., and B. Hewitson, 2002: Intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics and their importance to the seasonal prediction problem. Int. J. Climatol., 22, 1033-1048.
49. Tippett, M. K., A. G. Barnston, and D. DeWitt, 2005: Statistical correction of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature forecasts. J. Climate, 18, 5141-5162.
50. Troccoli, A., M. Harrison, D. L. T. Anderson, and S. J. Mason, 2008: Seasonal Climate: Forecasting and Managing Risk. NATO Science Series on Earth and Environmental Sciences, Vol. 82, Springer, 467 pp.
51. Van den Dool, H. M., 1994: Searching for analogues, how long must we wait? Tellus, 46A, 314-324.
52. Van den Dool, H. M., and Z. Toth, 1991: Why do forecasts for "near normal" often fail? Wea. Forecasting, 6, 76-85.
53. Van Heerden, J., D. E. Terblanche, and G. C. Schulze, 1988: The Southern Oscillation and South African summer rainfall. Int. J. Climatol., 8, 577-597.
54. Van Rooy, M. P., 1972: Climate of South Africa: District rainfall for South Africa and the annual march of rainfall over southern Africa, part 10. SouthAfricanWeather Bureau Tech. NoteWB 35, Dept. of Transport, Pretoria, South Africa, 116 pp.
55. Washington, R., and A. Preston, 2006: Extreme wet years over southern Africa: Role of the Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures. J. Geophys. Res., 111, D15104, doi:10.1029/2005JD006724.
56. Wilks, D. S., 2006: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. 2nd ed. Academic Press, 627 pp.
57. Yeh, S.-W., R. Wu, and B. P. Kirtman, 2007: Impact of the Indian Ocean on ENSO variability in a hybrid coupled model. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 133, 445-457.