Using species co-occurrence networks to assess the impacts of climate change

Ecography

Volumn 34, Issue 6, 2011, Pages 897-908

  Araújo, Miguel B ^a,b,c   Rozenfeld, Alejandro ^c,d   Rahbek, Carsten ^f   Marquet, Pablo A ^c,e  

^a MUSEO NACIONAL DE CIENCIAS NATURALES   (Spain)

^b UNIVERSITY OF ÉVORA   (Portugal)

^c PONTIFICIA UNIVERSIDAD CATÓLICA DE CHILE   (Chile)

^d CSIC   (Spain)

^e INSTITUTO DE ECOLOGÍA Y BIODIVERSIDAD IEB   (Chile)

^f UNIVERSITY OF COPENHAGEN   (Denmark)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ASSESSMENT METHOD; BIODIVERSITY; CLIMATE CHANGE; COLONIZATION; DATA SET; ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT; INTERSPECIFIC INTERACTION; SPECIES OCCURRENCE;

EID: 83055184473     PISSN: 09067590     EISSN: 16000587     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0587.2011.06919.x     Document Type: Article

References (76)

1. Adami, C. and Chu, J. 2002. Critical and near-critical branching processes. Phys. Rev. E66: 011907.
2. Albert, R. et al. 2000. Error and attack tolerance of complex networks. Nature 406: 378-382.
3. Allouche, O. et al. 2006. Assessing the accuracy of species distribution models: prevalence, kappa and the true skill statistic (TSS). J. Appl. Ecol. 43: 1223-1232.
4. Anderson, B. J. et al. 2009. Dynamics of range margins for metapopulations under climate change. Proc. R. Soc. B 276: 1415-1420.
5. Araújo, M. B. and Luoto, M. 2007. The importance of biotic interactions for modelling species distributions under climate change. Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 16: 743-753.
6. Araújo, M. B. and New, M. 2007. Ensemble forecasting of species distributions. Trends Ecol. Evol. 22: 42-47.
7. Araújo, M. B. et al. 2005a. Validation of species-climate impact models under climate change. Global Change Biol. 11: 1504-1513.
8. Araújo, M. B. et al. 2005b. Reducing uncertainty in projections of extinction risk from climate change. Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 14: 529-538.
9. Araújo, M. B. et al. 2008. Quaternary climate changes explain diversity among reptiles and amphibians. Ecography 31: 8-15.
10. Araújo, M. B. et al. 2009. Re-opening the climate envelope reveals macroscale associations with climate in European birds. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. USA 106: E45-E46.
11. Azaele, S. et al. 2010. Inferring plant ecosystem organization from occurrences. Journal of Theoretical Ecology 262: 323-329.
12. Barrat, A. et al. 2004. The architecture of complex weighted networks. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 101: 3747-3752.
13. Bascompte, J. 2007. Plant-animal mutualistic networks: the arquitecture of biodiversity. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 38: 567-593.
14. Bascompte, J. et al. 2003. The nested assembly of plant-animal mutualistic networks. Proc. Natl. Acad of Sci. USA 100: 9383-9387.
15. Bascompte, J. et al. 2006. Asymmetric coevolutionary networks facilitate biodiversity maintenance. Science 312: 431-433.
16. Baselga, A. and Araújo, M. B. 2009. Individualistic vs community modelling of species distributions under climate change. Ecography 32: 55-65.
17. Baselga, A. and Araújo, M. B. 2010. Do community-level models describe community variation effectively?. J. Biogeogr. 37: 1842-1850.
18. Bell, J. R. et al. 2010. Spatial co-occurrence networks predict feeding histories of polyphagous arthropod predators at field scales. Ecography 33: 64-72.
19. Berg, M. P. et al. 2009. Adapt or disperse: understanding species persistence in a changing world. Global Change Biol. 16: 587-598.
20. Blick, R. and Burns, K. C. 2009. Network properties of arboreal plants: are epiphytes, mistletoes and lianas structured similarly?. Perspect. Plant Ecol. Evol. Syst. 11: 41-52.
21. Bray, J. R. and Curtis, J. T. 1957. An ordination of the upland forest communities of southern Wisconsin. Ecol. Monogr. 27: 326-349.
22. Camacho, J. et al. 2002. Robust patterns in food web structure. Phys. Rev. Lett. 88: 228102-1-228102-4.
23. Clements, B. S. 1916. Plant succession: an analysis of the development of vegetation. Carnegie Inst. of Washington.
24. Colwell, R. K. 1973. Competition and coexistence in a simple tropical community. Am. Nat. 107: 737-760.
25. Connor, E. F. and Simberloff, D. 1979. The assembly of species communities: chance or competition?. Ecology 60: 1132-1140.
26. Davis, A. J. et al. 1998. Making mistakes when predicting shifts in species range in response to global warming. Nature 391: 783-786.
27. Diniz-Filho, J. A. F. et al. 2009. Partitioning and mapping uncertainties in ensembles of forecasts of species turnover under climate change. Ecography 32: 897-906.
28. Dos Santos, D. A. et al. 2008. Sympatry inference and network analysis in biogeography. Syst. Biol. 57: 432-448.
29. Dunne, J. A. et al. 2002a. Food-web structure and network theory: the role of connectance and size. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 99: 12917-12922.
30. Dunne, J. A. et al. 2002b. Network structure and biodiversity loss in food webs: robustness increases with connectance. Ecol. Lett. 5: 558-567.
31. Ebenman, B. and Jonsson, T. 2005. Using community viability analysis to identify fragile systems and keystone species. Trends Ecol. Evol. 10: 568-575.
32. Eklof, A. and Ebenman, B. 2006. Species loss and secondary extinctions in simple and complex model communities. J. Anim. Ecol. 75: 239-246.
33. Emslie, S. D. and Patterson, W. P. 2007. Abrupt recent shift in δ13C and δ15N values in Adélie penguin eggshell in Antarctica. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 104: 11666-11669.
34. Farber, O. and Kadmon, R. 2003. Assessment of alternative approaches for bioclimatic modeling with special emphasis on the Mahalanobis distance. Ecol. Model. 160: 115-130.
35. Frakes, L. A. 1979. Climates throuhout geological time. Elsevier.
36. Garlaschelli, D. et al. 2003. Universal scaling relations in food webs. Nature 423: 165-168.
37. Gasc, J.-P. et al. 1997. Atlas of amphibians and reptiles in Europe. Societas Europaea Herpetologica and Museum National d'Histoire Naturelle.
38. Gotelli, N. J. 2000. Null model analyses of species co-occurrence patterns. Ecology 81: 2606-2621.
39. Gotelli, N. J. et al. 2010. Macroecological signals of species interactions in the Danish avifauna. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 107: 5030-5035.
40. Graham, R. W. and Grimm, E. C. 1990. Effects of global climate change on the patterns of terrestrial biological communities. Trends Ecol. Evol. 5: 289-292.
41. Graham, R. W. et al. 1996. Spatial response of mammals to Late Quaternary environmental fluctuations. Science 272: 1601-1606.
42. Hagemeijer, W. J. M. and Blair, M. J. 1997. The EBCC atlas of European breeding birds, their distribution and abundance. Poyser.
43. Harmon, J. P. et al. 2009. Species responses to environmental change: impacts of food web interactions and evolution. Science 323: 1347-1350.
44. Hawkins, B. A. et al. 2003. Energy, water, and broad-scale geographic patterns of species richness. Ecology 84: 3105-3177.
45. Heikkinen, R. et al. 2007. Biotic interactions improve prediction of boreal bird distributions at macro-scales. Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 16: 754-763.
46. Holman, J. A. 1998. Pleistocene amphibians and reptiles in Britain and Europe. Oxford Univ. Press.
47. Johnson, S. D. and Steiner, K. E. 1997. Long-tongued fly pollination and evolution of floral spur lenght in the Disa draconis complex (Orchidaceae). Evolution 51: 45-53.
48. Kaiser-Bunbury, C. N. et al. 2010. The robustness of pollination networks to the loss of species and interactions: a quantitative approach incorporating pollinator behaviour. Ecol. Lett. 13: 442-452.
49. Keith, D. A. et al. 2008. Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models. Biol. Lett. 4: 560-563.
50. Kones, J. K. et al. 2009. Are network indices robust indicators of food web functioning? A Monte Carlo approach. Ecol. Model. 220: 370-382.
51. Lahti, T. and Lampinen, R. 1999. From dot maps to bitmaps - Atlas Florae Europaeae goes digital. Acta Bota. Fenn. 162: 5-9.
52. Lawton, J. H. 1999. Are there general laws in ecology?. Oikos 84: 177-192.
53. Marmion, M. et al. 2009. Evaluation of consensus methods in predictive species distribution modelling. Divers. Distrib. 15: 59-69.
54. McCullagh, P. and Nelder, J. A. 1989. Generalized linear models. Chapman and Hall.
55. Meier, E. S. et al. 2010. Biotic and abiotic variables show little redundancy in explaining tree species distributions. Ecography 33: 1038-1048.
56. Milo, R. et al. 2002. Network motifs: simple building blocks of complex networks. Science 298: 824-827.
57. Mitchell-Jones, A. J. et al. 1999. Atlas of European mammals. Academic Press.
58. Nakicenovic, N. and Swart, R. (eds), Emissions scenarios: a special report of working group III of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge Univ. Press 2000.
59. New, M. et al. 2000. Representing twentieth century spacetime climate variability. Part 2: development of 1901-96 monthly grids of terrestrial surface climate. J .Clim. 13: 2217-2238.
60. Nilsson, L. 1988. The evolution of flowers with deep corolla tubes. Nature 334: 147-149.
61. Pearson, R. G. and Dawson, T. E. 2003. Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful?. Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 12: 361-371.
62. Phillips, S. J. and Dudík, M. 2008. Modeling of species distributions with Maxent: new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation. Ecography 31: 161-175.
63. Proulx, S. R. et al. 2005. Network thinking in ecology and evolution. Trends Ecol Evol. 20: 345-353.
64. Rozenfeld, A. F. et al. 2008. Network analysis identifies weak and strong links in a metapopulation system. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 105: 18824-18829.
65. Salomon, Y. et al. 2010. Effects of asymmetric dispersal on the coexistence of competing species. Ecol. Lett. 13: 432-441.
66. Schroter, D. et al. 2005. Ecosystem service supply and vulnerability to global change in Europe. Science 310: 1333-1337.
67. Simakova, A. N. 2006. The vegetation of the russian plain during the second part of the Late Pleistocene (33-18ka). Quaternary Int. 149: 110-114.
68. Stauffer, D. and Aharony, A. 1992. Introduction to percolation theory. Taylor and Francis.
69. Stewart, J. R. 2009. The evolutionary consequencs of the individualistic response to climate change. J. Evol. Biol. 22: 2363-2375.
70. Stockwell, D. R. B. and Peters, D. P. 1999. The GARP modelling system: problems and solutions to automated spatial prediction. Int. J. Geogr. Inform. Syst. 13: 143-158.
71. Suttle, K. B. et al. 2007. Species interactions reverse grassland responses to changing climate. Science 315: 640-642.
72. Thomson, J. N. 2005. The geographic mosaic of coevolution. Univ. of Chicago Press.
73. Tylianakis, J. M. et al. 2008. Global change and species interactions in terrestrial ecosystems. Ecol. Lett. 11: 1351-1363.
74. Whittaker, R. J. et al. 2007. Geographic gradients of species richness: a test of the water-energy conjecture of Hawkins et al. (2003) using European data for five taxa. Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 16: 76-89.
75. Williams, J. W. et al. 2001. Dissimilarity analysis of late-quaternay vegetation and climate in eastern North America. Ecology 82: 3346-3362.
76. Williams, P. H. et al. 2000. Endemism and important areas for representing European biodiversity: a preliminary exploration of atlas data for plants and terrestrial vertebrates. Belg J. Entomol. 2: 21-46.