Can El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events modulate intraseasonal oscillations of Indian summer monsoon?

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres

Volumn 116, Issue 20, 2011, Pages

  Joseph, S ^a   Sahai, A K ^a   Chattopadhyay, R ^b   Goswami, B N ^a  

^a INDIAN INSTITUTE OF TROPICAL METEOROLOGY   (India)

^b UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE; CLIMATOLOGY; CONFORMAL MAPPING; FORECASTING; NICKEL COMPOUNDS; PATTERN RECOGNITION; RAIN; TROPICAL ENGINEERING;

ACTIVE NODE; INDIAN SUMMER MONSOON; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY; INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATIONS; NON-LINEARITY; NONLINEAR PATTERN; SEASONAL MEAN; SEASONAL PREDICTION; SEASONAL SCALE; SELF ORGANIZING; SOM CLUSTERING;

ATMOSPHERIC THERMODYNAMICS;

EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; LA NINA; NONLINEARITY; RAINFALL; TEMPORAL VARIATION; THERMODYNAMICS; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

NIA;

EID: 80455150406     PISSN: 01480227     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1029/2010JD015510     Document Type: Article

References (60)

1. Ambroise, C., G. Seze, F. Badran, and S. Thiria (2000), Hierarchical clustering of self-organizing maps for cloud classification, Neurocomputing, 30, 47-52, doi:10.1016/S0925-2312(99)00141-1.
2. Annamalai, H., and J. M. Slingo (2001), Active/break cycles: Diagnosis of the intraseasonal variability over the Asian summer monsoon, Clim. Dyn., 18, 85-102, doi:10.1007/s003820100161. (Pubitemid 33102380)
3. Annamalai, H., J. M. Slingo, K. R. Sperber, and K. Hodges (1999), The mean evolution and variability of the Asian summer monsoon: Comparison of ECMWF and NCEP-NCAR reanalysis, Mon. Weather Rev., 127, 1157-1186, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1999)127<1157:TMEAVO>2.0. CO;2 (Pubitemid 129652684)
4. Ashok, K., Z. Guan, N. H. Saji, and T. Yamagata (2004), Individual and combined influences of ENSO and the Indian Ocean dipole on the Indian summer monsoon, J. Clim., 17, 3141-3155, doi:10.1175/1520- 0442(2004)017<3141: IACIOE>2.0.CO;2 (Pubitemid 39196816)
5. Ashok, K., S. K. Behera, S. A. Rao, H. Weng, and T. Yamagata (2007), El Niño Modoki and its possible teleconnection, J. Geophys. Res., 112, C11007, doi:10.1029/2006JC003798.
6. Cavazos, T. (1999), Large-scale circulation anomalies conducive to extreme precipitation events and derivation of daily rainfall in northeastern Mexico and southeastern Texas, J. Clim., 12, 1506-1523, doi:10.1175/ 1520-0442(1999)012<1506:LSCACT>2.0.CO;2 (Pubitemid 29432759)
7. Chattopadhyay, R., A. K. Sahai, and B. N. Goswami (2008), Objective identification of nonlinear convectively coupled phases of monsoon intraseasonal oscillation: Implications for prediction, J. Atmos. Sci., 65, 1549-1569, doi:10.1175/2007JAS2474.1. (Pubitemid 351888690)
8. Chen, L., and J. Gasteiger (1997), Knowledge discovery in reaction databases: Landscaping organic reactions by a self-organizing neural network, J. Am. Chem. Soc., 119, 4033-4042, doi:10.1021/ja960027b. (Pubitemid 27224421)
9. Gadgil, S., and P. V. Joseph (2003), On breaks of the Indian monsoon, Proc. Indian Acad. Sci., 112, 529-558. (Pubitemid 38135498)
10. Goswami, B. N. (1998), Interannual variation of Indian summer monsoon in a GCM: External conditions versus internal feedbacks, J. Clim., 11, 501-522, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<0501:IVOISM>2.0.CO;2 (Pubitemid 28392564)
11. Goswami, B. N. (2005), South Asian summer monsoon, in Intraseasonal Variability of the Atmosphere-Ocean Climate System, edited by W. K.-M. Lau and D. E. Waliser, chap. 2, pp. 19-61, Springer, Berlin, doi:10.1007/3-540-27250-X- 2.
12. Goswami, B. N., and R. S. Ajaya Mohan (2001), Intraseasonal oscillations and interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon, J. Clim., 14, 1180-1198, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<1180:IOAIVO>2.0. CO;2 (Pubitemid 33053197)
13. Goswami, B. N., and P. K. Xavier (2005), Dynamics of "internal" interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon in a GCM, J. Geophys. Res., 110, D24104, doi:10.1029/2005JD006042. (Pubitemid 43169391)
14. Goswami, B. N., V. Krishnamurthy, and H. Annamalai (1999), A broad-scale circulation index for the interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 125, 611-633, doi:10.1002/qj.49712555412. (Pubitemid 29240026)
15. Goswami, B. N., G. Wu, and T. Yasunari (2006), The annual cycle, intraseasonal oscillations, and roadblock to seasonal predictability of the Asian summer monsoon, J. Clim., 19, 5078-5099, doi:10.1175/ JCLI3901.1. (Pubitemid 44712435)
16. Goulet, L., and J.-P. Duvel (2000), A new approach to detect and characterize intermittent atmospheric oscillations: Application to the intraseasonal oscillation, J. Atmos. Sci., 57, 2397-2416, doi:10.1175/1520- 0469(2000)057<2397:ANATDA>2.0.CO;2
17. Gutiérrez, J. M., A. S. Cofiño, R. Cano, and M. A. Rodríguez (2004), Clustering methods for statistical downscaling in short-range weather forecasts, Mon. Weather Rev., 132, 2169-2183, doi:10.1175/1520- 0493(2004)132<2169:CMFSDI>2.0.CO;2 (Pubitemid 39306451)
18. Gutiérrez, J. M., R. Cano, A. S. Cofiño, and C. Sordo (2005), Analysis and downscaling multimodel seasonal forecasts in Peru using self-organizing maps, Tellus, Ser. A, 57, 435-447, doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2005. 00128.x. (Pubitemid 40659635)
19. Haykin, S. S. (1999), Neural Networks: A Comprehensive Foundation, 2nd ed., chap. 9, 842 pp., Prentice-Hall, Upper Saddle River, N. J.
20. Hendon, H. H., C. Zhang, and J. Glick (1999), Interannual fluctuations of the Madden-Julian Oscillation during austral summer, J. Clim., 12, 2538-2550, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<2538:IVOTMJ>2.0.CO;2 (Pubitemid 30024906)
21. Heskes, T., and B. Kappen (1995), Self-organization and nonparametric regression, in Proceedings of the International Conference on Artificial Neural Networks, vol. 1F, edited by F. Fogelman-Soulié and P. Gallinari, pp. 81-86, Springer, Paris.
22. Hewitson, B. C., and R. G. Crane (2002), Self-organizing maps: Applications to synoptic climatology, Clim. Res., 22, 13-26, doi:10.3354/cr022013. (Pubitemid 34986917)
23. Joseph, S., A. K. Sahai, and B. N. Goswami (2009), Eastward propagating MJO during boreal summer and Indian summer monsoon droughts, Clim. Dyn., 32, 1139-1153, doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0412-8.
24. Joseph, S., A. K. Sahai, and B. N. Goswami (2010), Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations and seasonal Indian monsoon prediction in DEMETER coupled models, Clim. Dyn., 35, 651-667, doi:10.1007/ s00382-009-0635-3.
25. Kalnay, E., et al. (1996), The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 77, 437-471, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1996) 077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2
26. Kang, I.-S., J.-Y. Lee, and C.-K. Park (2004), Potential predictability of summer mean precipitation in a dynamical seasonal prediction system with systematic error correction, J. Clim., 17, 834-844, doi:10.1175/ 1520-0442(2004)017<0834:PPOSMP>2.0.CO;2 (Pubitemid 38454137)
27. Kohonen, T. (1990), The self-organizing map, Proc. IEEE, 78, 1464-1480, doi:10.1109/5.58325.
28. Krishnamurthy, V., and J. Shukla (2000), Intraseasonal and interannual variability of rainfall over India, J. Clim., 13, 4366-4377, doi:10.1175/ 1520-0442(2000)013<0001:IAIVOR>2.0.CO;2
29. Krishnamurthy, V., and J. Shukla (2007), Intraseasonal and seasonally persisting patterns of Indian summer monsoon rainfall, J. Clim., 20, 3-20, doi:10.1175/JCLI3981.1. (Pubitemid 46140520)
30. Krishnan, R., C. Zhang, and M. Sugi (2000), Dynamics of breaks in the Indian summer monsoon, J. Atmos. Sci., 57, 1354-1372, doi:10.1175/ 1520-0469(2000)057<1354:DOBITI>2.0.CO;2 (Pubitemid 30343825)
31. Kucharski, F., A. Bracco, J. H. Yoo, and F. Molteni (2007), Low frequency variability of the Indian monsoon-ENSO relationship and the tropical Atlantic: The "weakening" of the 1980s and 1990s, J. Clim., 20, 4255-4266, doi:10.1175/JCLI4254.1. (Pubitemid 47377684)
32. Kumar, K. K., B. Rajagopalan, and M. K. Cane (1999), On the weakening relationship between the Indian monsoon and ENSO, Science, 284, 2156-2159, doi:10.1126/science.284.5423.2156. (Pubitemid 29297471)
33. Kumar, K. K., B. Rajagopalan, M. Hoerling, G. Bates, and M. Cane (2006), Unraveling the mystery of Indian monsoon failure during El Niño, Science, 314, 115-119, doi:10.1126/science.1131152. (Pubitemid 44547753)
34. Lau, K.-M., and P. H. Chan (1986), Aspects of 40-50 day oscillation during the northern summer as inferred from outgoing longwave radiation, Mon. Weather Rev., 114, 1354-1367, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1986)114<1354: AOTDOD>2.0.CO;2
35. Lawrence, D. M., and P. J. Webster (2001), Interannual variations of the intraseasonal oscillation in the South Asian summer monsoon region, J. Clim., 14, 2910-2922, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<2910: IVOTIO>2.0.CO;2 (Pubitemid 33045291)
36. Leloup, J. A., Z. Lachkar, J.-P. Boulanger, and S. Thiria (2007), Detecting decadal changes in ENSO using neural networks, Clim. Dyn., 28, 147-162, doi:10.1007/s00382-006-0173-1. (Pubitemid 44896858)
37. Malmgren, B. A., and A. Winter (1999), Climate zonation in Puerto Rico based on principal components analysis and an artificial neural network, J. Clim., 12, 977-985, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<0977: CZIPRB>2.0.CO;2 (Pubitemid 29346275)
38. Morioka, Y., T. Tozuka, and T. Yamagata (2010), Climate variability in the southern Indian Ocean as revealed by self-organizing maps, Clim. Dyn., 35, 1059-1072, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0843-x.
39. Palakal, M. J., U. Murthy, S. K. Chittajallu, and D. Wong (1995), Tonotopic representation of auditory responses using self-organizing maps, Math. Comput. Model., 22, 7-21, doi:10.1016/0895-7177(95)00107-D.
40. Palmer, T. N. (1994), Chaos and predictability in forecasting the monsoons, Proc. Indian Natl. Sci. Acad., Part A, 60, 57-66.
41. Rajeevan, M., J. Bhate, J. D. Kale, and B. Lal (2006), High resolution daily gridded rainfall data for the Indian region: Analysis of break and active monsoon spells, Curr. Sci., 91, 296-306. (Pubitemid 44285757)
42. Rajeevan, M., S. Gadgil, and J. Bhate (2010), Active and break spells of the Indian summer monsoon, J. Earth Syst. Sci., 119, 229-247, doi:10.1007/ s12040-010-0019-4.
43. Rasmusson, E. M., and T. H. Carpenter (1983), The relationship between eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures and rainfall over India and Sri Lanka, Mon. Weather Rev., 111, 517-528, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1983) 111<0517:TRBEEP>2.0.CO;2
44. Saji, N. H., B. N. Goswami, P. N. Vinayachandran, and T. Yamagata (1999), A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean, Nature, 401, 360-363, doi:10.1038/43854. (Pubitemid 29454955)
45. Salby, M. L., and H. H. Hendon (1994), Intraseasonal behavior of clouds, temperature, and motion in the tropics, J. Atmos. Sci., 51, 2207-2224, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1994)051<2207:IBOCTA>2.0.CO;2
46. Shukla, J. (1985), Predictability, Adv. Geophys., 28, 87-122, doi:10.1016/ S0065-2687(08)60186-7.
47. Sikka, D. R. (1980), Some aspects of the large scale fluctuations of summer monsoon rainfall over India in relation to fluctuations in the planetary and regional scale circulation parameters, Proc. Indian Acad. Sci., 89, 179-195.
48. Slingo, J. M., D. P. Rodwell, K. R. Sperber, and F. Nortley (1999), On the predictability of the interannual behaviour of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and its relationship with El Niño, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 125, 583-609. (Pubitemid 29240025)
49. Smith, T. M., and R. W. Reynolds (2004), Improved extended reconstruction of SST (1854-1997), J. Clim., 17, 2466-2477, doi:10.1175/1520- 0442(2004)0172.0.CO;2. (Pubitemid 38945794)
50. Sperber, K. R., J. M. Slingo, and H. Annamalai (2000), Predictability and the relationship between subseasonal and interannual variability during the Asian summer monsoon, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 126, 2545-2574, doi:10.1002/qj.49712656810.
51. Tozuka, T., J.-J. Luo, S. Masson, and T. Yamagata (2008), Tropical Indian Ocean variability revealed by self-organizing maps, Clim. Dyn., 31, 333-343, doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0356-4.
52. Walker, G. T. (1918), Correlation in seasonal variation of weather, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 44, 223-224.
53. Wang, B., and Z. Fan (1999), Choice of South Asian summer monsoon indices, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 80, 629-638, doi:10.1175/ 1520-0477(1999)080<0629:COSASM>2.0.CO;2 (Pubitemid 129570064)
54. Wang, B., I.-S. Kang, and J.-Y. Lee (2004), Ensemble simulations of Asian-Australian monsoon variability by 11 AGCMs, J. Clim., 17, 699-710, doi:10.1175/2932.1.
55. Wang, B., Q. H. Ding, X. H. Fu, I.-S. Kang, K. Jin, J. Shukla, and F. Doblas- Reyes (2005), Fundamental challenge in simulation and prediction of summer monsoon rainfall, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L15711, doi:10.1029/ 2005GL022734. (Pubitemid 41398751)
56. Webster, P. J., and S. Yang (1992), Monsoon and ENSO: Selectively interactive systems, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 118, 877-926, doi:10.1002/ qj.49711850705. (Pubitemid 23381859)
57. Webster, P. J., V. O. Magaña, T. N. Palmer, J. Shukla, R. A. Tomas, M. Yanai, and T. Yasunari (1998), Monsoons: Processes, predictability, and the prospects for prediction, J. Geophys. Res., 103, 14,451-14,510, doi:10.1029/97JC02719. (Pubitemid 28497213)
58. Xavier, P. K., and B. N. Goswami (2007), A promising alternative to prediction of seasonal mean all India rainfall, Curr. Sci., 93, 195-202. (Pubitemid 47339992)
59. Xavier, P. K., C. Marzin, and B. N. Goswami (2007), An objective definition of the Indian summer monsoon season and a new perspective on the ENSO-monsoon relationship, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 133, 749-764, doi:10.1002/qj.45. (Pubitemid 46882068)
60. Yoo, J. H., A. W. Robertson, and I.-S. Kang (2010), Analysis of intraseasonal and interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon using a hidden Markov model, J. Clim., 23, 5498-5516, doi:10.1175/ 2010JCLI3473.1.