Precipitation Changes in High Southern Latitudes from Global Reanalyses: A Cautionary Tale

Surveys in Geophysics

Volumn 32, Issue 4-5, 2011, Pages 475-494

  Nicolas, Julien P ^a   Bromwich, David H ^a  

^a OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Antarctica; Global reanalyses; Hydrological cycle; Southern Ocean; Spurious trends; Surface mass balance

Indexed keywords

ANTARCTICA; GLOBAL REANALYSES; HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE; SOUTHERN OCEAN; SPURIOUS TRENDS; SURFACE MASS BALANCE;

EVAPORATION; PHASE TRANSITIONS;

DATA PROCESSING;

ANNUAL VARIATION; ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE; CLIMATE CHANGE; DATA ASSIMILATION; DATA SET; EVAPORATION; HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE; MASS BALANCE; PRECIPITABLE WATER; PRECIPITATION ASSESSMENT; SATELLITE IMAGERY; TREND ANALYSIS;

ANTARCTICA; SOUTHERN OCEAN;

EID: 80053191534     PISSN: 01693298     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10712-011-9114-6     Document Type: Article

References (62)

1. Adler R, Huffman G, Chang A, Ferraro R, Xie P, Janowiak J, Rudolf B, Schneider U, Curtis S, Bolvin D, Gruber A, Susskind J, Arkin P, Nelkin E (2003) The version-2 global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979-present). J Hydrometeor 4: 1147-1167.
2. Andersson E (2007) Data assimilation in the polar regions. ECMWF Newslett 112: 10-15.
3. Andersson E, Bauer P, Beljaars A, Chevallier F, Hólm E, Janisková M, Kållberg P, Kelly G, Lopez P, Mcnally A, Moreau E, Simmons AJ, Thépaut JN, Tompkins AM (2005) Assimilation and modeling of the atmospheric hydrological cycle in the ECMWF forecasting system. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 86(3): 387-402.
4. Arthern RJ, Winebrenner DP, Vaughan DG (2006) Antarctic snow accumulation mapped using polarization of 4. 3-cm wavelength microwave emission. J Geophys Res 111: D06107.
5. Auligné T, McNally AP, Dee DP (2007) Adaptive bias correction for satellite data in a numerical weather prediction system. Q J Roy Meteor Soc 133(624): 631-642.
6. Bengtsson L, Hagemann S, Hodges KI (2004a) Can climate trends be calculated from reanalysis data? J Geophys Res 109(D11): D11111.
7. Bengtsson L, Hodges KI, Hagemann S (2004b) Sensitivity of the ERA40 reanalysis to the observing system: determination of the global atmospheric circulation from reduced observations. Tellus Ser A 56: 456-471.
8. Bosilovich MG, Schubert S, Rienecker M, Todling R, Suarez M, Bacmeister J, Gelaro R, Kim GK, Stajner I, Chen J (2006) NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications. US CLIVAR Variations 4(2): 5-8, http://www. usclivar. org/Newsletter/VariationsV4N2. pdf.
9. Bosilovich MG, Chen J, Robertson FR, Adler RF (2008) Evaluation of precipitation in reanalyses. J Appl Meteor Climatol 47: 2279-2299.
10. Bouchard A, Rabier F, Guidard V, Karbou F (2010) Enhancements of satellite data assimilation over Antarctica. Mon Weather Rev 138(6): 2149-2173.
11. Bromwich DH, Fogt RL (2004) Strong trends in the skill of the ERA-40 and NCEP-NCAR reanalyses in the high and middle latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere, 1958-2001. J Climate 17: 4603-4619.
12. Bromwich DH, Fogt RL, Hodges KI, Walsh JE (2007) A tropospheric assessment of the ERA-40, NCEP, and JRA-25 global reanalyses in the polar regions. J Geophys Res 112(D10): D10111.
13. Bromwich DH, Nicolas JP, Monaghan AJ (2011) An assessment of changes in Antarctic and Southern Ocean precipitation since 1989 in contemporary global reanalyses. J Climate Accepted.
14. Chelton DB, Wentz FJ (2005) Global microwave satellite observations of sea surface temperature for numerical weather prediction and climate research. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 86(8): 1097-1115.
15. Cullather RI, Bosilovich MG (2011) The moisture budget of the polar atmosphere in MERRA. J Climate Accepted.
16. Cullather RI, Bromwich DH, van Woert ML (1998) Spatial and temporal variability of Antarctic precipitation from atmospheric methods. J Climate 11(3): 334-367.
17. Dee D, Uppala S (2008) Variational bias correction in ERA-Interim. ECMWF Tech Mem No 575.
18. Dee DP, Uppala S (2009) Variational bias correction of satellite radiance data in the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Q J Roy Meteor Soc 135: 1830-1841.
19. Dee D, Berrisford P, Poli P, Fuentes M (2009) ERA-Interim for climate monitoring. ECMWF Newslett No 119 pp 5-6, http://www. ecmwf. int/publications/newsletters/pdf/119. pdf.
20. Eisen O, Frezzotti M, Genthon C, Isaksson E, Magand O, van den Broeke MR, Dixon DA, Ekaykin A, Holmlund P, Kameda T, Karlo L, Kaspari S, Lipenkov VY, Oerter H, Takahashi S, Vaughan DG (2008) Ground-based measurements of spatial and temporal variability of snow accumulation in east antarctica. Rev Geophys 46: RG2001.
21. Frezzotti M, Pourchet M, Flora O, Gandolfi S, Gay M, Urbini S, Vincent C, Becagli S, Gragnani R, Proposito M, Severi M, Traversi R, Udisti R, Fily M (2005) Spatial and temporal variability of snow accumulation in East Antarctica from traverse data. J Glaciol 51(172): 113-124.
22. Frezzotti M, Urbini S, Proposito M, Scarchilli C, Gandolfi S (2007) Spatial and temporal variability of surface mass balance near Talos Dome, East Antarctica. J Geophys Res 112(F2): F02032.
23. Genthon C, Lardeux P, Krinner G (2007) The surface accumulation and ablation of a coastal blue-ice area near Cap Prudhomme, Terre Adelie, Antarctica. J Glaciol 53(183): 635-645.
24. Guedj S, Karbou F, Rabier F, Bouchard A (2010) Toward a better modelling of surface emissivity to improve AMSU data assimilation over Antarctica. IEEE Trans Geosci Remote Sens 48(4): 1976-1985.
25. Haimberger L (2007) Homogenization of radiosonde temperature time series using innovation statistics. J Climate 20(7): 1377-1403.
26. Hines KM, Bromwich DH, Marshall GJ (2000) Artificial surface pressure trends in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis over the Southern Ocean and Antarctica. J Climate 13: 39403952.
27. Kalnay E et al (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 77(3): 437-471.
28. Kanamitsu M, Ebisuzaki W, Woollen J, Yang SK, Hnilo JJ, Fiorino M, Potter GL (2002) NCEP-DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis (R-2). Bull Amer Meteor Soc 83: 1631-1643.
29. Kaspari S, Mayewski PA, Dixon DA, Spikes VB, Sneed SB, Handley MJ, Hamilton GS (2004) Climate variability in West Antarctica derived from annual accumulation-rate records from ITASE firn/ice cores. Ann Glaciol 39: 585-594.
30. Kleist DT, Parrish DF, Derber JC, Treadon R, Wu WS, Lord S (2009) Introduction of the GSI into the NCEP Global Data Assimilation System. Weather Forecast 24(6): 1691-1705.
31. Lemke P et al (2007) Observations: changes in snow, ice and frozen ground. In: Solomon S et al (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
32. Liston GE, Winther JG (2005) Antarctic surface and subsurface snow and ice melt fluxes. J Climate 18(10): 1469-1481.
33. Marshall GJ (2002) Trends in Antarctic geopotential height and temperature: a comparison between radiosonde and NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data. J Climate 15: 659-674.
34. Meehl GA et al (2007) Global climate projections. In: Solomon S et al (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group i to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
35. Monaghan AJ, Bromwich DH, Fogt RL, Wang SH, Mayewski PA, Dixon DA, Ekaykin A, Frezzotti M, Goodwin I, Isaksson E, Kaspari SD, Morgan VI, Oerter H, van Ommen TD, van der Veen CJ, Wen J (2006a) Insignificant change in Antarctic snowfall since the international geophysical year. Science 313(5788): 827-831.
36. Monaghan AJ, Bromwich DH, Wang SH (2006b) Recent trends in Antarctic snow accumulation from Polar MM5 simulations. Philos Trans R Soc Ser A 364: 1683-1708.
37. Nicholls RJ, Cazenave A (2010) Sea-level rise and its impact on coastal zones. Science 328(5985): 1517-1520.
38. Onogi K, Tsutsui J, Koide H, Sakamoto M, Kobayashi S, Hatsushika H, Matsumoto T, Yamazaki N, Kamahori H, Takahashi K, Kadokura S, Wada K, Kato K, Oyama R, Ose T, Mannoji N, Taira R (2007) The JRA-25 reanalysis. J Met Soc Jpn 85(3): 369-432.
39. Parkinson C (2003) Aqua: an earth-observing satellite mission to examine water and other climate variables. IEEE Trans Geosci Remote Sens 41(2): 173-183.
40. Poli P, Healy SB, Dee DP (2010) Assimilation of global positioning system radio occultation data in the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis. Q J Roy Meteor Soc 136(653): 1972-1990.
41. Rabier F et al (2010) The Concordiasi project in Antarctica. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 91(1): 69-86.
42. Rienecker MM, Suarez M, Todling R, Bacmeister J, Takacs L, Liu HC, Gu W, Sienkiewicz M, Koster R, Gelaro R, Stajner I, Nielsen J (2008) The GEOS-5 data assimilation system-documentation of versions 5. 0. 1, 5. 1. 0, and 5. 2. 0. Tech. rep., NASA, USA.
43. Saha S et al (2010) The NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 91(8): 1015-1057.
44. Scarchilli C, Frezzotti M, Grigioni P, De Silvestri L, Agnoletto L, Dolci S (2010) Extraordinary blowing snow transport events in East Antarctica. Climate Dyn 34(7): 1195-1206.
45. Schlosser E, Manning KW, Powers JG, Duda MG, Birnbaum G, Fujita K (2010) Characteristics of high-precipitation events in Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica. J Geophys Res 115(D14): D14107.
46. Simmons A, Uppala S, Dee D, Kobayashi S (2006) ERA-Interim: New ECMWF reanalysis products from 1989 onwards. ECMWF Newslett No 110 pp 25-35, http://www. ecmwf. int/publications/newsletters/pdf/110rev. pdf.
47. Sodemann H, Stohl A (2009) Asymmetries in the moisture origin of Antarctic precipitation. Geophys Res Lett 36: L22803.
48. Stammerjohn SE, Martinson DG, Smith RC, Yuan X, Rind D (2008) Trends in Antarctic annual sea ice retreat and advance and their relation to El Nino-southern oscillation and southern annular mode variability. J Geophys Res 113: C03S90.
49. Tedesco M, Monaghan AJ (2009) An updated Antarctic melt record through 2009 and its linkages to high-latitude and tropical climate variability. Geophys Res Lett 36(18): L18502.
50. Thorne PW, Vose RS (2010) Reanalyses suitable for characterizing long-term trends. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 91: 353-361.
51. Tietäväinen H, Vihma T (2008) Atmospheric moisture budget over Antarctica and the southern ocean based on the ERA-40 reanalysis. Int J Climatol 28: 1977-1995.
52. Trenberth KE, Fasullo J, Smith L (2005) Trends and variability in column-integrated atmospheric water vapor. Climate Dyn 24: 741-758.
53. Turner J, Comiso JC, Marshall GJ, Lachlan-Cope TA, Bracegirdle T, Maksym T, Meredith MP, Wang Z, Orr A (2009) Non-annular atmospheric circulation change induced by stratospheric ozone depletion and its role in the recent increase of Antarctic sea ice extent. Geophys Res Lett 36(8): L08502.
54. Uppala SM et al (2005) The ERA-40 re-analysis. Q J Roy Meteor Soc 131: 2961-3012.
55. Uppala S, Dee D, Kobayashi S, Berrisford P, Simmons A (2008) Towards a climate data assimilation system: status update of ERA-Interim. ECMWF Newslett No 115 pp 1218, http://www. ecmwf. int/publications/newsletters/pdf/115rev. pdf.
56. van de Berg WJ, van den Broeke MR, Reijmer CH, van Meijgaard E (2005) Characteristics of the Antarctic surface mass balance, 1958-2002, using a regional atmospheric climate model. Ann Glaciol 41: 97-104.
57. van den Broeke M, van de Berg WJ, van Meijgaard E, Reijmer C (2006) Identification of Antarctic ablation areas using a regional atmospheric climate model. J Geophys Res 111: D18110.
58. Vasiljevic D, Andersson E, Isaksen L, Garcia-Mendez A (2006) Surface pressure bias correction in data assimilation. ECMWF Newslett No 108 pp 20-27, http://www. ecmwf. int/publications/newsletters/pdf/108. pdf.
59. Vaughan DG, Bamber JL, Giovinetto M, Russell J, Cooper APR (1999) Reassessment of net surface mass balance in Antarctica. J Climate 12: 933-946.
60. Xie P, Arkin P (1997) Global precipitation: a 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model outputs. Bull Am Meteor Soc 78: 2539-2558.
61. Yin X, Gruber A, Arkin P (2004) Comparison of the GPCP and CMAP merged gauge-satellite monthly precipitation products for the period 1979-2001. J Hydrometeor 5(6): 1207-1222.
62. Yu L, Weller RA (2007) Objectively analyzed air-sea heat fluxes for the global ice-free oceans (1981-2005). Bull Am Meteor Soc 88(4): 527-539.