Seasonal prediction of air temperature associated with the growing-season start of warm-season crops across Canada

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

Volumn 50, Issue 8, 2011, Pages 1637-1649

  Wu, Zhiwei ^a   Lin, Hai ^a   O'brien, Ted ^a  

^a ENVIRONMENT CANADA   (Canada)

Author keywords

Agriculture; Crop growth; Seasonal forecasting; Summer warm season; Temperature

Indexed keywords

AGRICULTURE SECTORS; AIR TEMPERATURE; ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ANOMALY; CONFIDENCE LEVELS; CORRELATION COEFFICIENT; CROP GROWTH; CROSS VALIDATION; EMPIRICAL MODEL; EMPIRICAL ORTHOGONAL FUNCTION; EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN; HINDCASTING; HINDCASTS; INDIAN OCEAN; INTERANNUAL VARIATION; NORTH AMERICAN; NORTH PACIFIC; PREDICTION TOOLS; PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS; REAL TIME; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES; SEASONAL FORECASTING; SEASONAL PREDICTION; SNOW COVERS; SUMMER/WARM SEASON; SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES; TOTAL VARIANCE; WEST COAST;

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; CLIMATOLOGY; CROPS; FOURIER ANALYSIS; ORTHOGONAL FUNCTIONS; SNOW;

FORECASTING;

AGRICULTURE; AGROMETEOROLOGY; AIR TEMPERATURE; ANNUAL VARIATION; ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION; CROP; EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS; HINDCASTING; NUMERICAL MODEL; PREDICTION; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; SEASONAL VARIATION; SNOW COVER; SUMMER; TREND ANALYSIS;

CANADA; INDIAN OCEAN; INDIAN OCEAN (EQUATORIAL); PACIFIC OCEAN; PACIFIC OCEAN (NORTH);

EID: 80052367798     PISSN: 15588424     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/2011JAMC2676.1     Document Type: Article

References (34)

1. Barnett, T. P., L. Dumenil, U. Schlese, and E. Roeckner, 1988: The effect of Eurasian snow cover on global climate. Science, 239, 504-507.
2. Blockeel, H., and J. Struyf, 2002: Efficient algorithms for decision tree cross-validation. J. Mach. Learn. Res., 3, 621-650.
3. Charney, J. G., and J. Shukla, 1981: Predictability of monsoons. Monsoon Dynamics, J. Lighthill and R. P. Pearce, Eds., Cambridge University Press, 99-109.
4. Cohen, J., 1994: Snow cover and climate. Weather, 59, 150-156.
5. Foster, J., M. Owe, and A. Rango, 1983: Snow cover and temperature relationships in North America and Eurasia. J. Climate Appl. Meteor., 22, 460-469.
6. Gutzler, D. S., and R. D. Rosen, 1992: Interannual variability of wintertime snow cover across the Northern Hemisphere. J. Climate, 5, 1441-1447.
7. Horel, J. D., and J. M. Wallace, 1981: Planetary-scale atmospheric phenomena associated with the Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 109, 813-829.
8. Hoskins, B. J., and D. J. Karoly, 1981: The steady linear response of a spherical atmosphere to thermal and orographic forcing. J. Atmos. Sci., 38, 1179-1196.
9. Hurrell, J. W., 1996: Influence of variations in extratropical wintertime teleconnections on Northern Hemisphere temperature. Geophys. Res. Lett., 23, 665-668.
10. Lin, H., and J. Derome, 2004: Nonlinearity of extratropical response to tropical forcing. J. Climate, 17, 2597-2608.
11. Lin, H., and Z. W. Wu, 2011: Contribution of the autumn Tibetan Plateau snow cover to seasonal prediction of North American winter temperature. J. Climate, 24, 2801-2813.
12. Lin, H., J. Derome, and G. Brunet, 2005: Tropical Pacific link to the two dominant patterns of atmospheric variability. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L03801, doi:10.1029/2004GL021495.
13. Lorenz, E. N., 1963: Deterministic nonperiodic flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 20, 130-141.
14. Michaelsen, J., 1987: Cross-validation in statistical climate forecast model. J. Climate Appl. Meteor., 26, 1589-1600.
15. North, G. R., T. L. Bell, R. F. Cahalan, and F. J. Moeng, 1982: Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthogonal functions. Mon. Wea. Rev., 110, 699-706.
16. Qian, B., X. Zhang, K. Chen, Y. Feng, and T. O'Brien, 2010: Observed long-term trends for agroclimatic conditions in Canada. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 49, 604-618.
17. Rayner, N. A.,D. E. Parker, E. B. Horton, C. K. Folland, L. V. Alexander, D. P. Rowell, E. C. Kent, and A. Kaplan, 2003: Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J. Geophys. Res., 108, D14407, doi:10.1029/ 2002JD002670.
18. Robinson, D. A., K. F. Dewey, and R. R. Heim, 1993: Global snow cover monitoring: An update. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 74, 1689-1696.
19. Ropelewski, C. F., and M. S. Halpert, 1986: North American precipitation and temperature patterns associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Mon. Wea. Rev., 114, 2352-2362.
20. Sardeshmukh, P. D., and B. J. Hoskins, 1988: The generation of global rotational flow by steady idealized tropical divergence. J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 1228-1251.
21. Shabbar, A., and A. G. Barnston, 1996: Skill of seasonal climate forecasts in Canada using canonical correlation analysis. Mon. Wea. Rev., 124, 2370-2385.
22. Shabbar, A, and M. Khandekar, 1996: The impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on the temperature field over Canada. Atmos.- Ocean, 34, 401-416.
23. Shabbar, A, and B. Bonsal, 2003: An assessment of changes in winter cold and warm spells over Canada. Nat. Hazards, 29, 173-188.
24. Shukla, J., 1998: Predictability in the midst of chaos: A scientific basis for climate forecasting. Science, 282, 728-731.
25. Ting, M. F., M. P. Hoerling, T. Y. Xu, and A. Kumar, 1996: Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns during extreme phases of the zonal-mean circulation. J. Climate, 9, 2614-2633.
26. Trenberth, K. E., 1990: Recent observed inter-decadal climate change in the Northern Hemisphere. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 71, 988-993.
27. Uppala, S. M., and Coauthors, 2005: The ERA-40 Re-Analysis. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131, 2961-3012, doi:10.1256/ qj.04.176.
28. Vincent, L. A., and E. Mekis, 2006: Changes in daily and extreme temperature and precipitation indices for Canada over the twentieth century. Atmos.-Ocean, 44, 177-193.
29. Vincent, L. A., X. Zhang, B. R. Bonsal, and W. D. Hogg, 2002: Homogenization of daily temperatures over Canada. J. Climate, 15, 1322-1334.
30. Wang, B., R. Wu, and X. Fu, 2000: Pacific-east Asia teleconnection: How does ENSO affect east Asian climate? J. Climate, 13, 1517-1536.
31. Wang, B, Z. W. Wu, J. Liu, C.-P. Chang, J. Li, and T.-J. Zhou, 2010:Another look at climate variations of the east Asianwintermonsoon: Northern and southern modes. J. Climate, 23, 1495-1512.
32. Wu, Z. W., J. Li, B. Wang, and X. Liu, 2009a: Can the Southern Hemisphere annular mode affect China winter monsoon? J. Geophys. Res., 114, D11107, doi:10.1029/2008JD011501.
33. Wu, Z. W, B. Wang, J. Li, and F.-F. Jin, 2009b: An empirical seasonal prediction model of the east Asian summer monsoon using ENSO and NAO. J. Geophys. Res., 114, D18120, doi:10.1029/ 2009JD011733.
34. Zhang, X., L. A. Vincent, W. D. Hogg, and A. Niitsoo, 2000: Temperature and precipitation trends in Canada during the 20th century. Atmos.-Ocean, 38, 395-429.