Nonlinear and nonstationary influences of geomagnetic activity on the winter North Atlantic Oscillation

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres

Volumn 116, Issue 16, 2011, Pages

  Li, Yun ^a   Lu, Hua ^b   Jarvis, Martin J ^b   Clilverd, Mark A ^b   Bates, Bryson ^a  

^a CSIRO   (Australia)

^b BRITISH ANTARCTIC SURVEY   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE; MODELS; REFUSE INCINERATORS; SOLAR ENERGY; SOLAR WIND; UPPER ATMOSPHERE;

20TH CENTURY; CHANGE-POINTS; CONCAVE SHAPE; CORONAL HOLE; GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITIES; MULTIDECADAL VARIATIONS; NONSTATIONARY; SOLAR ACTIVITY; SOLAR CYCLE; SOLAR INDICES; SOLAR MODULATION; WIND STREAM; WINTER NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION; WINTER TIME;

GEOMAGNETISM;

DECADAL VARIATION; ENVIRONMENTAL FACTOR; GEOMAGNETIC FIELD; INDEX METHOD; LATITUDE; NONLINEARITY; NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION; NORTHERN HEMISPHERE; NUMERICAL MODEL; SOLAR ACTIVITY; TWENTIETH CENTURY;

EID: 80052045150     PISSN: 01480227     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1029/2011JD015822     Document Type: Article

References (101)

1. Akaike, H. (1974), A new look at the statistical model identification, IEEE Trans. Autom. Control, 19(6), 716-723, doi:10.1109/TAC.1974.1100705.
2. Andronova, N. G., and M. E. Schelsinger (2000), Causes of global temperature changes during the 19th and 20th centuries, Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 2137-2140, doi:10.1029/2000GL006109. (Pubitemid 32041938)
3. Arnold, N. F., and T. R. Robinson (2001), Solar magnetic flux influences on the dynamics of the winter middle atmosphere, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 2381-2384, doi:10.1029/2000GL012825. (Pubitemid 32696451)
4. Badalyan, O. G., and V. N. Obridko (2011), North-south asymmetry of the sunspot indices and its quasi-biennial oscillations, New Astron., 16, 357-365, doi:10.1016/j.newast.2011.01.005.
5. Barriopedro, D., R. Garcia-Herrera, and R. Huth (2008), Solar modulation of Northern Hemisphere winter blocking, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D14118, doi:10.1029/2008JD009789.
6. Boberg, F., and H. Lundstedt (2002), Solar wind variations related to fluctuations of the North Atlantic Oscillation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29(15), 1718, doi:10.1029/2002GL014903.
7. Boberg, F., and H. Lundstedt (2003), Solar wind electric field modulation of the NAO: A correlation analysis in the lower atmosphere, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(15), 1825, doi:10.1029/2003GL017360.
8. Bochnícek, J., and P. Hejda (2005), The winter NAO pattern changes in association with solar and geomagnetic activity, J. Atmos. Sol. Terr. Phys., 67, 17-32, doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2004.07.014. (Pubitemid 40071828)
9. Boudouridis, A., E. Zesta, L. R. Lyons, P. C. Anderson, and D. Lummerzheim (2003), Effect of soalr wind pressure pulses on the size and strength of the auroral oval, J. Geophys. Res., 108(A4), 8012, doi:10.1029/ 2002JA009373.
10. Bucha, V., and V. Bucha Jr. (1998), Geomagnetic forcing of changes in climate and in the atmospheric circulation, J. Atmos. Sol. Terr. Phys., 60, 145-169, doi:10.1016/S1364-6826(97)00119-3.
11. Bumba, V., and L. Hejna (1991), A new index of recurrence for long-lasting enhanced geomagnetic activity, Bull. Astron. Inst. Czech., 42(2), 85-90.
12. Clilverd, M. A., T. D. G. Clark, E. Clarke, and H. Rishbeth (1998), Increased magnetic storm activity from 1868 to 1995, J. Atmos. Sol. Terr. Phys., 60, 1047-1056, doi:10.1016/S1364-6826(98)00049-2. (Pubitemid 29123232)
13. Cliver, E. W., V. Boriakoff, and K. H. Bounar (1996), The 22-year cycle of geomagnetic and solar wind activity, J. Geophys. Res., 101, 27,091- 27,109, doi:10.1029/96JA02037.
14. Corti, S., F. Molteni, and T. N. Palmer (1999), Signature of recent climate change in frequencies of natural atmospheric circulation regimes, Nature, 398, 799-802, doi:10.1038/19745. (Pubitemid 29205346)
15. Cox, M. E., A. Moss, and G. K. Smyth (2005), Water quality condition and trend in North Queensland waterways, Mar. Pollut. Bull., 51(1-4), 89-98, doi:10.1016/j.marpolbul.2004.10.039. (Pubitemid 40341605)
16. Craven, P., and G. Wahba (1979), Smoothing noisy data with spline functions, Numer. Math., 31(4), 377-403, doi:10.1007/BF01404567.
17. Delworth, T. L., and M. E. Mann (2000), Observed and simulated multidecadal variability in the Northern Hemisphere, Clim. Dyn., 16, 661-676, doi:10.1007/s003820000075.
18. Echer, E., W. D. Gonzalez, A. L. C. Gonzalez, A. Prestes, L. E. A. Vieira, A. Dal Lago, F. L. Guarnieri, and N. J. Schuch (2004), Long-term correlation between solar and geomagnetic activity, J. Atmos. Sol. Terr. Phys., 66, 1019-1025, doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2004.03.011. (Pubitemid 38889309)
19. Emery, B. A., I. G. Richardson, D. S. Evans, and F. J. Rich (2009), Solar wind structure sources and periodicities of auroral electron power over three solar cycles, J. Atmos. Sol. Terr. Phys., 71, 1157-1175, doi:10.1016/j.jastp. 2008.08.005.
20. Enfield, D. B., A. M. Mestas-Nuñez, and P. J. Trimble (2001), The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and its relation to rainfall and river flows in the continental US, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 2077-2080, doi:10.1029/ 2000GL012745. (Pubitemid 34039420)
21. Feldstein, S. B. (2002), The recent trend and variance increase of the annular mode, J. Clim., 15, 88-94, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)0152.0.CO;2. (Pubitemid 34554038)
22. Georgieva, K., and B. Kirov (2010), Solar dynamo and geomagnetic activity, J. Atmos. Sol. Terr. Phys., 73, 207-222, doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2010.03. 003.
23. Gerstengarbe, F. W., and P. C. Werner (1999), Estimation of the beginning and end of recurrent events within a climate regime, Clim. Res., 11, 97-107, doi:10.3354/cr011097. (Pubitemid 29257343)
24. Gillett, N. P., F. W. Zwiers, A. J. Weaver, and P. A. Stott (2003), Detection of human influence on sea-level pressure, Nature, 422, 292-294, doi:10.1038/nature01487. (Pubitemid 36378353)
25. Gong, G., D. Entekhabi, and J. Cohen (2002), A large-ensemble model study of the wintertime AO-NAO and the role of interannual snow perturbations, J. Clim., 15, 3488-3499, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002) 0152.0.CO;2. (Pubitemid 36093743)
26. Gong, G., D. Entekhabi, and J. Cohen (2003), Modeled Northern Hemisphere winter climate response to realistic Siberian snow anomalies, J. Clim., 16, 3917-3931, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)0162.0.CO;2. (Pubitemid 38070282)
27. Gray, S. T., L. J. Graumlich, J. L. Betancourt, and G. T. Pederson (2004), A tree-ring based reconstruction of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation since 1567 A.D., Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L12205, doi:10.1029/ 2004GL019932.
28. Gu, C. (1992), Cross-validating non-Gaussian data, J. Comput. Graphical Stat., 1, 169-179, doi:10.2307/1390840.
29. Haigh, J. D. (1994), The role of stratospheric ozone in modulating the solar radiative forcing of climate, Nature, 370, 544-546, doi:10.1038/ 370544a0. (Pubitemid 2115194)
30. Hall, A., and M. Visbeck (2002), Synchronous variability in the Southern Hemisphere atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean resulting from the annular mode, J. Clim., 15, 3043-3057, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002) 0152.0.CO;2. (Pubitemid 35474245)
31. Hapgood, M. A. (1993), A double solar cycle in the 27-day recurrence of geomagnetic activity, Ann. Geophys., 11, 248-253.
32. Harrison, R. G., and D. B. Stephenson (2006), Empirical evidence for a nonlinear effect of galactic cosmic rays on clouds, Proc. R. Soc. A, 462, 1221-1233, doi:10.1098/rspa.2005.1628. (Pubitemid 44922114)
33. Hastie, T., and R. Tibshirani (1990), Generalized Additive Models, Monogr. Stat. Appl. Probab. Ser., vol. 43, Chapman and Hall, London.
34. He, S., S. Mazumdar, and V. C. Arena (2006), A comparative study of the use of GAM and GLM in air pollution research, Environmetrics, 17, 81-93, doi:10.1002/env.751. (Pubitemid 43143107)
35. Hoerling, M. P., J. W. Hurrell, and T. Y. Xu (2001), Tropical origins for recent North Atlantic climate change, Science, 292, 90-92, doi:10.1126/ science.1058582. (Pubitemid 32289131)
36. Hurrell, J. W. (1995), Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: Regional temperatures and precipitation, Science, 269, 676-679, doi:10.1126/science.269.5224.676. (Pubitemid 26439360)
37. Hurrell, J. W., and C. Deser (2010), North Atlantic climate variability: The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation, J. Mar. Syst., 79, 231-244, doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2009.11.002.
38. Hurrell, J. W., Y. Kushnir, G. Ottersen, and M. E. Visbeck (Eds.) (2003), The North Atlantic Oscillation: Climate Significance and Environmental Impact, Geophys. Monogr. Ser., vol. 134, 279 pp., AGU, Washington, D. C.
39. Iman, R. L. (1994), A Data-Based Approach to Statistics, 348 pp., Duxbury, Pacific Grove, Calif.
40. Jones, P. D., T. Jónsson, and D. Wheeler (1997), Extension to the North Atlantic Oscillation using early instrumental pressure observations from Gibraltar and south-west Iceland, Int. J. Climatol., 17, 1433-1450, doi:10.1002/(SICI) 1097-0088(19971115)17:133.0.CO;2-P.
41. Kishcha, P. V., I. V. Dmitrieva, and V. N. Obridko (1999), Long-term variations of the solar-geomagnetic correlation, total solar irradiance, and Northern Hemispheric temperature (1868-1997), J. Atmos. Sol. Terr. Phys., 61, 799-808, doi:10.1016/S1364-6826(99)00035-8. (Pubitemid 30034273)
42. Knight, J. R., C. K. Folland, and A. A. Scaife (2006), Climate impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L17706, doi:10.1029/2006GL026242. (Pubitemid 44945660)
43. Kniveton, D. R., B. A. Tinsley, G. B. Burns, E. A. Bering, and O. A. Troshichev (2008), Variations in global cloud cover and the fair-weather vertical electric field, J. Atmos. Sol. Terr. Phys., 70, 1633-1642, doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2008.07.001.
44. Kodera, K. (2002), Solar cycle modulation of the North Atlantic Oscillation: Implication in the spatial structure of the NAO, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29(8), 1218, doi:10.1029/2001GL014557.
45. Kodera, K. (2003), Solar influence on the spatial structure of the NAO during the winter 1900-1999, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(4), 1175, doi:10.1029/ 2002GL016584.
46. Labitzke, K. (1987), Sunspots, the QBO, and the stratospheric temperature in the north polar-region, Geophys. Res. Lett., 14, 535-537, doi:10.1029/ GL014i005p00535.
47. Laken, B., A. Wolfendale, and D. Kniveton (2009), Cosmic ray decreases and changes in the liquid water cloud fraction over the oceans, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L23803, doi:10.1029/2009GL040961.
48. Li, K. J., J. X. Wang, S. Y. Xiong, H. F. Liang, H. S. Yun, and X. M. Gu (2002), Regularity of the north-south asymmetry of solar activity, Astron. Astrophys., 383(2), 648-652, doi:10.1051/0004-6361:20011799. (Pubitemid 34192295)
49. Liu, Y., C. J. Paciorek, and P. Koutrakis (2009), Estimating regional spatial and temporal variability of PM2.5 concentrations using satellite data, meteorology, and land use information, Environ. Health Perspect., 117(6), 886-892.
50. Lockwood, M., R. Stamper, and M. N. Wild (1999), A doubling of the Sun's coronal magnetic field during the last 100 years, Nature, 399, 437-439, doi:10.1038/20867. (Pubitemid 29258842)
51. Lu, H., M. J. Jarvis, H.-F. Graf, P. C. Young, and R. B. Horne (2007), Atmospheric temperature responses to solar irradiance and geomagnetic activity, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D11109, doi:10.1029/2006JD007864. (Pubitemid 47287992)
52. Lu, H., M. A. Clilverd, A. Seppälä, and L. L. Hood (2008a), Geomagnetic perturbations on stratospheric circulation in late winter and spring, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D16106, doi:10.1029/2007JD008915.
53. Lu, H., M. J. Jarvis, and R. E. Hibbins (2008b), Possible solar wind effect on the Northern Annular Mode and Northern Hemispheric circulation during winter and spring, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D23104, doi:10.1029/ 2008JD010848.
54. Lu, H., L. J. Gray, M. P. Baldwin, and M. J. Jarvis (2009), Life cycle of the QBO-modulated 11-year solar cycle signals in the Northern Hemispheric winter, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 135, 1030-1043, doi:10.1002/qj.419.
55. Mann, H. B. (1945), Nonparametric test against trend, Econometrica, 13, 245-259.
56. Mayaud, P.-N. (1972), The aa indices: A 100-year series characterizing the magnetic activity, J. Geophys. Res., 77, 6870-6874, doi:10.1029/ JA077i034p06870.
57. McLeod, S. R., and A. R. Pople (2010), Modelling the distribution and relative abundance of feral camels in the Northern Territory using count data, Rangeland J., 32(1), 21-32, doi:10.1071/RJ09057.
58. Mehta, V. M., M. J. Suarez, J. V. Manganello, and T. L. Delworth (2000), Oceanic influence on the North Atlantic Oscillation and associated Northern Hemisphere climate variations: 1959-1993, Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 121-124, doi:10.1029/1999GL002381.
59. Mestre, O., and S. Hallegatte (2009), Predictors of tropical cyclone numbers and extreme hurricane intensities over the North Atlantic using generalized additive and linear models, J. Clim., 22, 633-648, doi:10.1175/ 2008JCLI2318.1.
60. Mikolajczyk, R. T., A. E. Maxwell, W. El Ansari, C. Stock, J. Petkeviciene, and F. Guillen-Grima (2010), Relationship between perceived body weight and body mass index based on self-reported height and weight among university students: A cross-sectional study in seven European countries, BMC Public Health, 10, 1-40, doi:10.1186/1471-2458-10-40.
61. Morton, R., and B. L. Henderson (2008), Estimation of nonlinear trends in water quality: An improved approach using generalized additive models, Water Resour. Res., 44, W07420, doi:10.1029/2007WR006191.
62. O'Brien, L., and P. Rago (1996), An application of the generalized additive model to groundfish Survey Data with Atlantic cod off the northeast coast of the United States as an example, NAFO Sci. Counc. Stud., 28, 79-95.
63. Ogi, M., K. Yamazaki, and Y. Tachibana (2003), Solar cycle modulation of the seasonal linkage of the North Altantic Oscillation (NAO), Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(22), 2170, doi:10.1029/2003GL018545.
64. Osborn, T. J. (2004), Simulating the winter North Atlantic Oscillation: The roles of internal variability and greenhouse gas forcing, Clim. Dyn., 22, 605-623. (Pubitemid 38904866)
65. Palamara, D. R., and E. A. Bryant (2004), Geomagnetic activity forcing of the Northern Annular Mode via the stratosphere, Ann. Geophys., 22, 725-731, doi:10.5194/angeo-22-725-2004. (Pubitemid 38516774)
66. Paluš, M., and D. Novotná (2007), Common oscillatory modes in geomagnetic activity, NAO index and surface air temperature records, J. Atmos. Sol. Terr. Phys., 69, 2405-2415, doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2007.05.009. (Pubitemid 350112115)
67. Paluš, M., and D. Novotná (2009), Phase-coherent oscillatory modes in solar and geomagnetic activity and climate variability, J. Atmos. Sol. Terr. Phys., 71, 923-930, doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2009.03.012.
68. Pierce, J. R., and P. J. Adams (2009), Can cosmic rays affect cloud condensation nuclei by altering new particle formation rates?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L09820, doi:10.1029/2009GL037946.
69. Press, W. H., B. P. Flannery, S. A. Teukolsky, and W. T. Vetterling (1992), Numerical Recipes in C: The Art of Scientific Computing, 2nd ed., 848 pp., Cambridge Univ. Press, New York.
70. Pudovkin, M. I., and S. V. Veretenenko (1995), Cloudiness decreases associated with Forbush-decreases of galactic cosmic rays, J. Atmos. Sol. Terr. Phys., 57, 1349-1355, doi:10.1016/0021-9169(94)00109-2. (Pubitemid 26442004)
71. Pudovkin, M. I., and S. V. Veretenenko (1996), Variations of the cosmic rays as one of the possible links between the solar activity and the lower atmosphere, Adv. Space Res., 17, 161-164, doi:10.1016/0273- 1177(95)00745-Z.
72. Randall, C. E., et al. (2005), Stratospheric effects of energetic particle precipitation in 2003-2004, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L05802, doi:10.1029/ 2004GL022003.
73. Randall, C. E., V. L. Harvey, C. S. Singleton, P. F. Bernath, C. D. Boone, and J. U. Kozyra (2006), Enhanced NOx in 2006 linked to strong upper stratospheric Arctic vortex, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L18811, doi:10.1029/2006GL027160. (Pubitemid 351147942)
74. Randall, C. E., V. L. Harvey, C. S. Singleton, S. M. Bailey, P. F. Bernath, M. Codrescu, H. Nakajima, and J. M. Russell III (2007), Energetic particle precipitation effects on the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere in 1992-2005, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D08308, doi:10.1029/2006JD007696. (Pubitemid 46947845)
75. Rangarajan, G. K. (1991), Variations in the strength of recurrent geomagnetic activity in solar cycles 11 to 21, Proc. Indian Acad. Sci. Earth Planet. Sci., 100, 49-54.
76. Rodwell, M. J., D. P. Rowell, and C. K. Folland (1999), Oceanic forcing of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and European climate, Nature, 398, 320-323, doi:10.1038/18648. (Pubitemid 29161683)
77. Rosenberg, R., and P. J. Coleman Jr. (1969), Heliographic latitude dependence of the dominant polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field, J. Geophys. Res., 74, 5611-5622, doi:10.1029/JA074i024p05611.
78. Russell, C. T., and R. L. McPherron (1973), Semiannual variation of geomagnetic activity, J. Geophys. Res., 78, 92-108, doi:10.1029/ JA078i001p00092.
79. Saenger, C., A. L. Cohen, D. W. Oppo, R. B. Halley, and J. E. Carilli (2009), Surface-temperature trends and variability in the low-latitude North Atlantic since 1552, Nat. Geosci., 2, 492-495, doi:10.1038/ ngeo552.
80. Sargent, H. H., III (1985), Recurrent geomagnetic activity: Evidence for long-lived stability in solar wind structure, J. Geophys. Res., 90, 1425-1428, doi:10.1029/JA090iA02p01425.
81. Sargent, H. H., III (1986), The 27-day recurrence index, in Solar Wind Magnetosphere Coupling, edited by Y. Kamide and J. A. Slavin, pp. 143-148, Terra Sci., Tokyo.
82. Seppälä, A., C. E. Randall, M. A. Clilverd, E. Rozanov, and C. J. Rodger (2009), Geomagnetic activity and polar surface air temperature variability, J. Geophys. Res., 114, A10312, doi:10.1029/2008JA014029.
83. Shaviv, N. J. (2005), On climate response to changes in the cosmic ray flux and radiative budget, J. Geophys. Res., 110, A08105, doi:10.1029/ 2004JA010866.
84. Shindell, D. T., R. L. Miller, G. A. Schmidt, and L. Pandolfo (1999), Simulation of recent northern winter climate trends by greenhouse-gas forcing, Nature, 399, 452-455, doi:10.1038/20905. (Pubitemid 29258847)
85. Shnirman, M. G., J.-L. L. Mouël, and E. M. Blanter (2009), The 27-day and 22-year cycles in solar and geomagnetic activity, Solar. Phys., 258, 167-179, doi:10.1007/s11207-009-9395-9.
86. Sneyers, R. (1990), On the Statistical Analysis of Series of Observations, 143 pp., World Meteorol. Organ., Geneva, Switzerland.
87. Solomon, S., P. J. Crutzen, and R. G. Roble (1982), Photochemical coupling between the thermosphere and the lower atmosphere: 1. Odd nitrogen from 50 to 120 km, J. Geophys. Res., 87, 7206-7220, doi:10.1029/ JC087iC09p07206. (Pubitemid 12570810)
88. Stamper, R., M. Lockwood, M. N. Wild, and T. D. G. Clark (1999), Solar causes of the long-term increase in geomagnetic activity, J. Geophys. Res., 104, 28,325-28,342, doi:10.1029/1999JA900311.
89. Stephenson, D. B., V. Pavan, and R. Bojariu (2000), Is the North Atlantic Oscillation a random walk?, Int. J. Climatol., 20, 1-18, doi:10.1002/ (SICI)1097-0088(200001)20:13.0.CO;2-P. (Pubitemid 30149928)
90. Svensmark, H., and E. Friis-Christensen (1997), Variation of cosmic ray flux and global cloud coverage-A missing link in solar-climate relationships, J. Atmos. Sol. Terr. Phys., 59, 1225-1232, doi:10.1016/S1364- 6826(97)00001-1.
91. Svensmark, H., T. Bondo, and J. Svensmark (2009), Cosmic ray decreases affect atmospheric aerosols and clouds, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L15101, doi:10.1029/2009GL038429.
92. Swartzman, G., C. H. Huang, and S. Kaluzny (1992), Spatial analysis of Bering Sea groundfish survey data using generalized additive models, Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci., 49, 1366-1378, doi:10.1139/f92-152. (Pubitemid 23395176)
93. Taubenheim, J. (1989), An easy procedure for detecting a discontinuity in a digital time series, Z. Meteorol., 39(6), 344-347.
94. Thejll, P., B. Christiansen, and H. Gleisner (2003), On correlations between the North Atlantic Oscillation, geopotential heights, and geomagnetic activity, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(6), 1347, doi:10.1029/2002GL016598.
95. Thompson, D. W. J., J. M. Wallace, J. J. Kennedy, and P. D. Jones (2010), An abrupt drop in Northern Hemisphere sea surface temperature around 1970, Nature, 467, 444-447, doi:10.1038/nature09394.
96. Tinsley, B. A., G. B. Burns, and L. Zhou (2007), The role of the global electric circuit in solar and internal forcing of clouds and climate, Adv. Space Res., 40, 1126-1139, doi:10.1016/j.asr.2007.01.071. (Pubitemid 47429834)
97. Underwood, F. M. (2009), Describing long-term trends in precipitation using generalized additive models, J. Hydrol., 364, 285-297, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.11.003.
98. Wood, S. N. (2006), Generalized Additive Models: An Introduction With R, Chapman and Hall, Boca Raton, Fla.
99. Wood, S. N. (2008), Fast stable direct fitting and smoothness selection for generalized additive models, J. R. Stat. Soc., Ser. B, 70, 495-518, doi:10.1111/j.1467-9868.2007.00646.x.
100. Woollings, T., A. Hannachi, B. Hoskins, and A. Turner (2010a), A regime view of the North Atlantic Oscillation and its response to anthropogenic forcing, J. Clim., 23, 1291-1307, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI3087.1.
101. Woollings, T., M. Lockwood, G. Masato, C. Bell, and L. Gray (2010b), Enhanced signature of solar variability in Eurasian winter climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L20805, doi:10.1029/2010GL044601.