Expected declines in recruitment of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in the eastern Bering Sea under future climate change

ICES Journal of Marine Science

Volumn 68, Issue 6, 2011, Pages 1284-1296

  Mueter, Franz J ^a   Bond, Nicholas A ^b   Ianelli, James N ^c   Hollowed, Anne B ^c  

^a UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA FAIRBANKS   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON   (United States)

^c ALASKA FISHERIES SCIENCE CENTER   (United States)

Author keywords

Bering Sea; climate change; forecasting; recruitment; sea surface temperature; statistical downscaling; walleye pollock

Indexed keywords

AGE STRUCTURE; BIOMASS; CLIMATE CHANGE; DENSITY DEPENDENCE; DOWNSCALING; FORECASTING METHOD; GADOID; HIGH TEMPERATURE; LARVA; MANAGEMENT PRACTICE; NUMERICAL MODEL; POPULATION DECLINE; PREDATION; PREDATOR; RECRUITMENT (POPULATION DYNAMICS); SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; SEASONAL VARIATION; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS; STOCK ASSESSMENT;

BERING SEA; PACIFIC OCEAN;

POLLACHIUS; THERAGRA CHALCOGRAMMA;

EID: 79959512171     PISSN: 10543139     EISSN: 10959289     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1093/icesjms/fsr022     Document Type: Article

References (43)

1. Aydin, K., Gaichas, S., Ortiz, I., Kinzey, D., and Friday, N. 2007. A comparison of the Bering Sea, Gulf of Alaska, and Aleutian Islands large marine ecosystems through food web modeling. NOAA Technical Memorandum NMFS-AFSC-178. 298 pp.
2. Bacheler, N. M., Ciannelli, L., Bailey, K. M., and Duffy-Anderson, J. T. 2010. Spatial and temporal patterns of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) spawning in the eastern Bering Sea inferred from egg and larval distributions. Fisheries Oceanography, 19: 107-120.
3. Baier, C. T., and Napp, J. M. 2003. Climate-induced variability in Calanus marshallae populations. Journal of Plankton Research, 25: 771-782. (Pubitemid 36832419)
4. Bailey, K. M. 2000. Shifting control of recruitment of walleye pollock Theragra chalcogramma after a major climatic and ecosystem change. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 198: 215-224. (Pubitemid 30411286)
5. Brander, K. 2010. Impacts of climate change on fisheries. Journal of Marine Systems, 79: 389-402.
6. Ciannelli, L., Brodeur, R. D., and Buckley, T. W. 1998. Development and application of a bioenergetics model for juvenile walleye pollock. Journal of Fish Biology, 52: 879-898. (Pubitemid 28276280)
7. Ciannelli, L., Chan, K-S., Bailey, K. M., and Stenseth, N. Ch. 2004. Nonadditive effects of the environment on the survival of a large marine fish population. Ecology, 85: 3418-3427. (Pubitemid 40084789)
8. Coyle, K. O., Eisner, B., Mueter, F. J., Pinchuk, A. I., Janout, M. A., Cieciel, K. D., Farley, E. V., et al. 2011. Climate change in the southeastern Bering Sea: impacts on pollock stocks and implications for the oscillating control hypothesis. Fisheries Oceanography, 20: 139-156.
9. Coyle, K. O., Pinchuk, A. I., Eisner, L. B., and Napp, J. M. 2008. Zooplankton species composition, abundance and biomass on the eastern Bering Sea shelf during summer: the potential role of water-column stability and nutrients in structuring the zooplank-ton community. Deep Sea Research II: Topical Studies in Oceanography, 55: 1775-1791.
10. Dwyer, D. A., Bailey, K. M., and Livingston, P. A. 1987. Feeding habits and daily ration of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in the eastern Bering Sea, with special reference to cannibalism. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 44: 1972-1984.
11. Hollowed, A. B., Bond, N. A., Wilderbuer, T. K., Stockhausen, W. T., A'mar, Z. T., Beamish, R. J., Overland, J. E., et al. 2009. A framework for modelling fish and shellfish responses to future climate change. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 66: 1584-1594.
12. Hollowed, A. B., Hare, S. R., and Wooster, W. S. 2001. Pacific basin climate variability and patterns of Northeast Pacific marine fish production. Progress in Oceanography, 49: 257-282. (Pubitemid 32925761)
13. Hollowed, A. B., Ianelli, J. N., and Livingston, P. A. 2000. Including predation mortality in stock assessments: a case study for Gulf of Alaska walleye pollock. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 57: 279-293.
14. Hunt, G. L., Coyle, K. O., Eisner, L. B., Farley, E. V., Heintz, R. A., Mueter, F., Napp, J. M., et al. 2011. Climate impacts on eastern Bering Sea food webs: a synthesis of new data and an assessment of the Oscillating Control Hypothesis. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: 1230-1243.
15. Hunt, G. L., Stabeno, P., Walters, G., Sinclair, E., Brodeur, R. D., Napp, J. M., and Bond, N. A. 2002. Climate change and control of the southeastern Bering Sea pelagic ecosystem. Deep Sea Research II: Topical Studies in Oceanography, 49: 5821-5853. (Pubitemid 35391559)
16. Hunt, G. L., Stabeno, P. J., Strom, S., and Napp, J. M. 2008. Patterns of spatial and temporal variation in the marine ecosystem of the southeastern Bering Sea, with special reference to the Pribilof Domain. Deep Sea Research II: Topical Studies in Oceanography, 55: 1919-1944.
17. Hurvich, C. M., and Tsai, C-L. 1989. Regression and time series model selection in small samples. Biometrika, 76: 297-307.
18. Ianelli, J. N., Hollowed, A. B., Haynie, A. C., Mueter, F. J., and Bond, N. A. 2011. Evaluating management strategies for eastern Bering Sea walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in a changing environment. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: 1297-1304.
19. Ianelli, J. N., Barbeaux, S., Honkalehto, T., Kotwicki, S., Aydin, K., and Williamson, N. 2009. Assessment of the walleye pollock stock in the eastern Bering Sea. In Stock Assessment and Fishery Evaluation Report for the Groundfish Resources of the Bering Sea/Aleutian Islands Regions. North Pacific Fishery Management Council, Anchorage, AK.
20. ICES. 2009. Report of the ICES/HELCOM Working Group on Integrated Assessments of the Baltic Sea (WGIAB), Rostock, Germany, 16-20 March 2009. ICES Document CM 2009/BCC: 02. 80 pp.
21. Kalnay, E., Kanamitsu, M., Kistler, R., Collins, W., Deaven, D., Gandin, L., Iredell, M., et al. 1996. The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 77: 437-472.
22. Kotwicki, S., Buckley, T. W., Honkalehto, T., and Walters, G. 2005. Variation in the distribution of walleye pollock (Theragra chalco-gramma) with temperature and implications for seasonal migration. Fishery Bulletin US, 103: 574-587. (Pubitemid 41703242)
23. Livingston, P. A., and Lang, G. M. 1996. Interdecadal comparisons of walleye pollock, Theragra chalcogramma, cannibalism in the eastern Bering Sea. NOAA Technical Report NMFS, 126. 115 pp.
24. Moss, J. H., Farley, E. V., Feldman, A. M., and Ianelli, J. N. 2009. Spatial distribution, energetic status, and food habits of eastern Bering Sea age-0 walleye pollock. Transactions of the American Fisheries Society, 138: 497-505.
25. Mueter, F. J., Boldt, J., Megrey, B. A., and Peterman, R. M. 2007. Recruitment and survival of Northeast Pacific Ocean fish stocks: temporal trends, covariation, and regime shifts. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 64: 911-927. (Pubitemid 47309758)
26. Mueter, F. J., Broms, C., Drinkwater, K. F., Friedland, K. D., Hare, J. A., Hunt, G. L., Melle, W., et al. 2009. Ecosystem responses to recent oceanographic variability in high-latitude northern hemisphere ecosystems. Progress in Oceanography, 81: 93-110.
27. Mueter, F. J., Ladd, C., Palmer, M. C., and Norcross, B. L. 2006. Bottom-up and top-down controls of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) on the eastern Bering Sea shelf. Progress in Oceanography, 68: 152-183.
28. Myers, R. A. 1998. When do environment-recruitment correlations work? Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries, 8: 285-305. (Pubitemid 29276053)
29. NPFMC. 2002. Fishery Management Plan for the Bering Sea/Aleutian Islands Groundfish. North Pacific Fishery Management Council, 605 West 4th Avenue, Suite 306, Anchorage, AK 99501. 383 pp.
30. NPFMC. 2009. Stock Assessment and Fishery Evaluation Report for the Groundfish Resources of the Bering Sea/Aleutian Islands Regions. North Pacific Fishery Management Council, 605 West 4th Avenue, Suite 306, Anchorage, AK 99501. 383 pp.
31. Overland, J. E., and Wang, M. 2007. Future climate of the North Pacific Ocean. EOS Transactions of the American Geophysical Union 88: 178-182.
32. Overland, J. E., Wang, M., Bond, N. A., Walsh, J. E., Kattsov, V. M., and Chapman, W. L. Considerations in the selection of global climate models for regional climate projections: the Arctic as a case study. Journal of Climate in press.
33. Palmer, M. C. 2003. Environmental controls of fish growth in the southeast Bering Sea. Institute of Marine Science, University of Alaska Fairbanks. 60 pp.
34. Quinn, T. J., and Deriso, R. B. 1999. Quantitative Fish Dynamics. Oxford University Press New York.
35. Quinn, T. J., and Niebauer, H. J. 1995. Relation of eastern Bering Sea walleye pollock recruitment to environmental and oceanographic variables. In Climate Change and Northern Fish Populations pp. 497-507. Ed. by R. J. Beamish. National Research Council of Canada, Ottawa.
36. Rijnsdorp, A. D., Peck, M. A., Engelhard, G. H., Möllmann, C., and Pinnegar, J. K. 2009. Resolving the effect of climate change on fish populations. ICES Journal of Marine Science 66: 1570-1583.
37. Simpson, J. H., Hughes, D. G., and Morris, N. C. G. 1977. The relation of seasonal stratification to tidal mixing on the continental shelf. Deep Sea Research, 24: 327-339.
38. Smith, T. M., Reynolds, R. W., Peterson, T. C., and Lawrimore, J. 2008. Improvements to NOAA's historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis (1880-2006). Journal of Climate, 21: 2283-2296. (Pubitemid 351844078)
39. Stabeno, P. J., Bond, N. A., Kachel, N. B., Salo, S. A., and Schumacher, J. D. 2001. On the temporal variability of the physical environment over the south-eastern Bering Sea. Fisheries Oceanography, 10: 81-98. (Pubitemid 32430661)
40. Stabeno, P. J., Bond, N. A., and Salo, S. A. 2007. On the recent warming of the southeastern Bering Sea shelf. Deep Sea Research, 54: 2599-2618. (Pubitemid 350216446)
41. Wespestad, V. G., Fritz, L. W., Ingraham, W. J., and Megrey, B. A. 2000. On relationships between cannibalism, climate variability, physical transport, and recruitment success of Bering Sea walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma). ICES Journal of Marine Science, 57: 272-278.
42. Wood, S. N. 2006. Generalized Additive Models: an Introduction with R. Chapman and Hall/CRC, Boca Raton, FL, USA.
43. Wyllie-Echeverria, T. 1996. The relationship between the distribution of one-year-old walleye pollock, Theragra chalcogramma, and sea-ice characteristics. NOAA Technical Report NMFS, 126: 47-56.