Nonadditive effects of the environment on the survival of a large marine fish population

Ecology

Volumn 85, Issue 12, 2004, Pages 3418-3427

  Ciannelli, Lorenzo ^a,d   Chan, Kung Sik ^b   Bailey, Kevin M ^c   Stenseth, Nils Chr ^d  

^a UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF IOWA   (United States)

^c NOAA EARTH SYSTEM RESEARCH LABORATORY   (United States)

^d UNIVERSITY OF OSLO   (Norway)

Author keywords

Density dependence; Environmental change; Gulf of Alaska; Nonadditivity; Phase dependence; Theragra chalcogramma; Walleye pollock

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE EFFECT; DENSITY DEPENDENCE; GADOID; POPULATION DYNAMICS; POPULATION ECOLOGY;

GULF OF ALASKA; OCEANIC REGIONS; PACIFIC OCEAN; WORLD;

POLLACHIUS VIRENS; STIZOSTEDION VITREUM; THERAGRA CHALCOGRAMMA;

EID: 11844282849     PISSN: 00129658     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1890/03-0755     Document Type: Article

References (43)

1. Anderson, P. J., and J. F. Piatt. 1999. Community reorganization in the Gulf of Alaska following ocean climate regime shift. Marine Ecology Progress Series 189:117-123.
2. Bailey, K. M. 2000. Shifting control of recruitment of walleye pollock Theragra chalcogramma after a major climatic and ecosystem change. Marine Ecology Progress Series 198: 215-224.
3. Bailey, K. M., R. D. Brodeur, and A. B. Hollow ed. 1996. Cohort survival patterns of walleye pollock, Theragra chalcogramma, in the Shelikof Strait, Alaska: a critical factor analysis. Fisheries Oceanography 5(S1):179-188.
4. th annual larval fish conference. Institute of Marine Research, Bergen, Norway.
5. Bailey, K. M., and A. S. Macklin. 1994. Analysis of patterns in larval walleye pollock Theragra chalcogramma survival and wind mixing events in Shelikof Strait, Gulf of Alaska. Marine Ecology Progress Series 113:1-12.
6. Bailey, K. M., and S. M. Spring. 1992. Comparison of larval, age-0 juvenile and age-2 recruit abundance indexes of walleye pollock, Theragra chalcogramma, in the western Gulf of Alaska. ICES Journal of Marine Science 49: 297-304.
7. Barbraud, C., and H. Weimerskirch. 2003. Climate and density shape population dynamics of a marine top predator. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B 270:2111-2116.
8. Brodeur, R. D., and M. T. Wilson. 1996. A review of the distribution, ecology and population dynamics of age-0 walleye pollock in the Gulf of Alaska. Fisheries Oceanography 5(S1):148-166.
9. Chavez, F. P., J. Ryan, S. E. Lluch-Cota, and M. C. Ñiquen. 2003. From anchovies to sardines and back: multidecadal change in the Pacific Ocean. Science 299:217-222.
10. Ciannelli, L., R. D. Brodeur, and T. W. Buckley. 1998. Development and application of a bioenergetics model for juvenile walleye pollock. Journal of Fish Biology 52:879-898.
11. Cury, P., and C. Roy. 1989. Optimal environmental window and pelagic fish recruitment success in upwelling areas. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Science 46:670-680.
12. Cury, P., C. Roy, R. Mendelssohn, A. Bakun, D. M. Husby, and R. H. Parrish. 1995. Moderate is better: exploring nonlinear climatic effects on the Californian northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax). Pages 417-424 in R. J. Beamish, editor. Climate-change and northern fish populations. Canadian Special Publication of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 121.
13. Dennis, B., and M. R. M. Otten. 2000. Joint effects of the density dependence and rainfall on abundance of San Joaquin kit fox. Journal of Wildlife and Management 64:388-400.
14. Dorn, M., S. Barbeaux, M. Guttormsen, B. Mergrey, A. Hollowed, E. Brown, and K. Splalinger. 2002. Assessment of walleye pollock in the Gulf of Alaska. In Stock assessment and fishery evaluation report for the groundfish resources of the Gulf of Alaska. North Pacific Fishery Management Council, Anchorage, Alaska, USA.
15. Duffy-Anderson, J. T., L. Ciannelli, T. Honkalehto, K. M. Bailey, S. Sogard, A. Springer, and T. Buckley. 2003. Distribution of age-1 and age-2 walleye pollock in the Gulf of Alaska and eastern Bering Sea: sources of variation and implications for higher trophic levels. Pages 381-394 in H. I. Browman and A. Skiftesvik, editors. The big fish bang, proceedings of the 26th annual larval fish conference. Institute of Marine Research, Bergen, Norway.
16. Efron, B., and G. Gong. 1982. A leisurely look at the bootstrap, the jackknife and the cross-validation. American Statistician 37:36-48.
17. FAO (Food and Agricultural Organization). 2002. The state of world fisheries and aquaculture. FAO, Rome, Italy. 〈http: //www.fao.org〉
18. Green, P. J., and B. W. Silverman. 1994. Nonparametric regression and generalized linear models: a roughness penalty approach. Chapman and Hall, New York, New York, USA.
19. Grenfell, B. T., O. F. Price, S. D. Albon, and T. H. Clutton-Brock. 1992. Overcompensation and population cycles in an ungulate. Nature 355:823-826.
20. Hastie, T. J., and R. J. Tibshirani. 1990. Generalized additive models. Chapman and Hall, New York, New York, USA.
21. Hilborn, R., and C. J. Walters. 1992. Quantitative fisheries stock assessment: choice, dynamics and uncertainty. Chapman and Hall, New York, New York, USA.
22. Hixon, M. A., and M. H. Carr. 1997. Synergistic predation, density dependence, and population regulation in marine fishes. Science 277:946-949.
23. Hjort, J. 1914. Fluctuations in the great fisheries of Northern Europe. Viewed in the light of biological research. Rapports et Procès-Verbaux des Réunions, Conseil International pour l'Exploration de la Mer 20:1-228.
24. Leirs, H., N. C. Stenseth, J. D. Nichols, J. E. Hines, R. Verhagen, and W. Verheyen. 1997. Stochastic seasonality and nonlinear density-dependent factors regulate population size in an African rodent. Nature 389:176-180.
25. L and generalized cross validation in the ridge regression with application to spline smoothing. Annals of Statistics 14:1101-1112.
26. L, cross-validation and generalized cross-validation: discrete index set. Annals of Statistics 15:958-975.
27. Lima, M., N. C. Stenseth, N. G. Yoccoz, and F. M. Jaksic. 2001. Demography and population dynamics of the mouse opossum (Thylamys elegans) in semi-arid Chile: seasonality, feedback structure and climate. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B 268:2053-2064.
28. Mantua, N. J., S. R. Hare, Y. Zhang, J. M. Wallace, and R. C. Francis. 1997. A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78:1069-1079.
29. Megrey, B. A., S. J. Bograd, W. J. Rugen, A. B. Hollowed, P. Stabeno, S. A. Macklin, J. D. Schumacher, and W. J. Ingraham. 1995. An exploratory analysis of associations between biotic and abiotic factors and year-class strength of Gulf of Alaska walleye pollock. Pages 227-243 in R. J. Beamish, editor. Climate-change and northern fish populations. Canadian Special Publication of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 121.
30. Quinn, T. J., II, and H. J. Niebauer. 1995. Relation of eastern Bering Sea walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) recruitment to environmental and oceanographic variables. Pages 497-507 in R. J. Beamish, editor. Climate-change and northern fish populations. Canadian Special Publication of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 121.
31. Rose, K. A., J. H. Cowan, K. O. Winemiller, R. M. Myers, and R. Hilborn. 2001. Compensatory density dependence in fish populations: importance, controversy, understanding and prognosis. Fish and Fisheries 2:293-327.
32. Schultz, E. T., D. O. Conover, and A. Ehtisham. 1998. The dead of winter: size-dependent variation and genetic differences in seasonal mortality among Atlantic silverside (Atherinidae: Menidia menidia) from different latitudes. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 55: 1149-1157.
33. Shima, J. S., and C. W. Osenberg. 2003. Cryptic density dependence: effects of covariation between density and site quality in reef fishes. Ecology 84:46-52.
34. Stenseth, N. C. 1999. Population cycles in voles and lemmings: density dependence and phase dependence in a stochastic world. Oikos 87:427-461.
35. Stenseth, N. C., O. N. Bjørnstad, W. Falck, J. M. Fromentin, J. Gjøsaeter, and J. S. Gray. 1999. Dynamics of coastal cod populations: intra- and intercohort density dependence and stochastic processes. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B 266:1645-1654.
36. Stenseth, N. C., K.-S. Chan, E. Framstad, and H. Tong. 1998. Phase-dependent population dynamics in Norwegian lemmings: interaction between deterministic and stochastic processes. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B 265:1957-1968.
37. Stenseth, N. C., A. Mysterrud, G. Ottersen, J. W. Hurrel, K.-S. Chan, and M. Lima. 2002. Ecological effects of climate fluctuations. Science 297:1292-1296.
38. Stenseth, N. C., G. Ottersen, J. W. Hurrell, A. Mysterud, M. Lima, K.-S. Chan, N. G. Yoccoz, and B. Ådlandsvik. 2003. Studying climate effects on ecology through the use of climate indices: the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Niño Southern Oscillation and beyond. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B 270:2087-2096.
39. Tong, H. 1990. Non-linear time series: a dynamical system approach. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.
40. Wahba, G. 1990. Spline models for observational data, SIAM, Philadelphia. CBMS-NSF Regional Conference Series in Applied Mathematics 59.
41. Wilson, M. T., R. D. Brodeur, and S. Hinckley. 1996. Distribution and abundance of age-0 walleye pollock, Theragra chalcogramma, in the western Gulf of Alaska during September 1990. NOAA Technical Report NMFS 126: 11-24.
42. Wood, S. J. R. 2000. Modelling and smoothing parameter estimation with multiple quadratic penalties. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B 62(2):413-428.
43. Wood, S. J. R. 2001. mgcv: GAMs and Generalized Ridge Regression for R. R News 1(2):20-25.