Weak states, regime types, and civil war

Civil Wars

Volumn 12, Issue 1-2, 2010, Pages 140-155

  Gurses, Mehmet ^a   Mason, T David ^b  

^a FLORIDA ATLANTIC UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF NORTH TEXAS   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 79956253028     PISSN: 13698249     EISSN: 1743968X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/13698249.2010.492952     Document Type: Article

References (92)

1. James D. Fearon and David D. Laitin, 'Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War', American Political Science Review 97/1 (2003) pp.75-90.
2. Nicholas Sambanis, 'What is Civil War? Conceptual and Empirical Complexities of an Operational Definition', Journal of Conflict Resolution 48/6 (2004) pp.814-58.
3. James D. Fearon and David D. Laitin, 'Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War', American Political Science Review 97/1 (2003) pp.75-90.
4. James D. Fearon and David D. Laitin, 'Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War', American Political Science Review 97/1 (2003) pp.75-90.
5. Nicholas Sambanis, 'What is Civil War? Conceptual and Empirical Complexities of an Operational Definition', Journal of Conflict Resolution 48/6 (2004) pp.814-58.
6. Ted Robert Gurr, 'A Causal Model of Civil Strife: A Comparative Analysis Using New Indices', American Political Science Review 62/4 (1968) pp.1104-24.
7. Ted Robert Gurr, Why Men Rebel (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press 1970).
8. Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler, 'On the Economic Causes of Civil War', Oxford Economic Papers 50/4 (1998) pp.563-73.
9. Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler, 'Greed and Grievance in Civil War', Oxford Economic Papers 56/4 (2004) pp.563-95.
10. Håvard Hegre, Tanja Ellingsen, Nils Petter Gleditsch and Scott Gates, 'Towards a Democratic Civil Peace? Democracy, Political Change and Civil War, 1816-1992', American Political Science Review 95/1 (2001) pp.34-48.
11. Errol A. Henderson and J. David Singer, 'Civil War in the Post-Colonial World, 1946-92', Journal of Peace Research 37/3 (2000) pp.275-99.
12. Ibrahim Elbadawi and Nicholas Sambanis, 'How Much War Will We See? Explaining the Prevalence of Civil War', Journal of Conflict Resolution 46/3 (2002) pp.307-44.
13. Karl R. DeRouen, Jr. and David Sobek, 'The Dynamics of Civil War Duration and Outcome', Journal of Peace Research 41/3 (2004) pp.303-20.
14. Stephen Knack, 'Aid Dependence and the quality of Governance: A Cross Country Empirical Analysis', Southern Economic Journal 68/4 (2001) pp.310-29.
15. Beth Simmons, 'International Law and State Behavior: Commitment and Compliance in International Monetary Affairs', American Political Science Review 94/4 (2000) pp.819-36.
16. Karl R. DeRouen, Jr. and David Sobek, 'The Dynamics of Civil War Duration and Outcome', Journal of Peace Research 41/3 (2004) p.309.
17. Karl R. DeRouen, Jr. and David Sobek, 'The Dynamics of Civil War Duration and Outcome', Journal of Peace Research 41/3 (2004) pp.303-20.
18. T. David Mason, Joseph P. Weingarten and Patrick J. Fett, 'Win, Lose, or Draw: Predicting the Outcome of Civil Wars', Political Research Quarterly 52/2 (1999) pp.239-68.
19. Theda Skocpol, States and Social Revolutions: A Comparative Analysis of France, Russia, and China (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press 1979).
20. Jeff Goodwin, 'State-Centered Approaches to Social Revolutions: Strengths and Limitations of a Theoretical Tradition' in John Foran (ed.) Theorizing Revolutions (London: Routledge 1997).
21. Jack A. Goldstone, Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World (Berkeley, CA: University of California Press 1991).
22. William Stanley, The Protection Racket State: Elite Politics, Military Extortion, and Civil War in El Salvador (Philadelphia: Temple University Press 1996).
23. Theda Skocpol, States and Social Revolutions: A Comparative Analysis of France, Russia, and China (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press 1979).
24. We use the terms 'civil war' and 'revolution' interchangeably here. Empirically, we include intrastate conflicts between an incumbent regime and an organized armed opposition movement that seeks to overthrow that government and establish a new regime. Fearon and Laitin, and Nicholas Sambanis, 'What is Civil War? Conceptual and Empirical Complexities of an Operational Definition', Journal of Conflict Resolution 48/6 (2004) pp.814-58. use the 1,000 battle deaths threshold as criteria for inclusion in their data, and we adopt the same criterion. As such, what we include under the terms 'civil war' and 'revolution' exclude lower levels of violence that do not reach this threshold and/or do not involve the organized use of violence by the opposition.
25. Jeff Goodwin and Theda Skocpol, 'Explaining Revolutions in the Contemporary World', Politics and Society 17/4 (1989) pp.489-509, pp.496-500.
26. Timothy Wickham-Crowley, Guerrillas and Revolution in Latin America: A Comparative Study of Insurgents and Regimes Since 1956 (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press 1992) pp.158-60.
27. Barbara Geddes, Paradigms and Sand Castles: Theory Building and Research Design in Comparative Politics (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press 2003).
28. Also see Barbara Geddes, 'What Do We Know about Democratization after Twenty Years?', Annual Review of Political Science 2/1 (1999) pp.115-44.
29. James D. Fearon and David D. Laitin, 'Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War', American Political Science Review 97/1 (2003) pp.75-90.
30. James D. Fearon and David D. Laitin, 'Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War', American Political Science Review 97/1 (2003) pp.75-90.
31. Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler, 'On the Economic Causes of Civil War', Oxford Economic Papers 50/4 (1998) pp.563-73.
32. Nicholas Sambanis, 'What is Civil War? Conceptual and Empirical Complexities of an Operational Definition', Journal of Conflict Resolution 48/6 (2004) pp.814-58.
33. Theda Skocpol, States and Social Revolutions: A Comparative Analysis of France, Russia, and China (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press 1979).
34. Jeff Goodwin, 'State-Centered Approaches to Social Revolutions: Strengths and Limitations of a Theoretical Tradition' in John Foran (ed.) Theorizing Revolutions (London: Routledge 1997).
35. Also see, Jeff Goodwin, No Other Way Out: States and Revolutionary Movements, 194-1991 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press 2001).
36. Theda Skocpol, States and Social Revolutions: A Comparative Analysis of France, Russia, and China (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press 1979).
37. Jack A. Goldstone, Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World (Berkeley, CA: University of California Press 1991).
38. Jeff Goodwin and Theda Skocpol, 'Explaining Revolutions in the Contemporary World', Politics and Society 17/4 (1989) pp.489-509, pp.496-500.
39. Jeff Goodwin and Theda Skocpol, 'Explaining Revolutions in the Contemporary World', Politics and Society 17/4 (1989) pp.489-509, pp.496-500.
40. Jeff Goodwin and Theda Skocpol, 'Explaining Revolutions in the Contemporary World', Politics and Society 17/4 (1989) pp.489-509, p.495.
41. Matthew Krain and Marissa Edson Myers, 'Democracy and Civil War: A Note on the Democratic Peace Proposition', International Interactions 23/1 (1997) pp.109-18.
42. Errol A. Henderson and J. David Singer, 'Civil War in the Post-Colonial World, 1946-92', Journal of Peace Research 37/3 (2000) pp.275-99.
43. Håvard Hegre, Tanja Ellingsen, Nils Petter Gleditsch and Scott Gates, 'Towards a Democratic Civil Peace? Democracy, Political Change and Civil War, 1816-1992', American Political Science Review 95/1 (2001) pp.34-48.
44. Håvard Hegre, Tanja Ellingsen, Nils Petter Gleditsch and Scott Gates, 'Towards a Democratic Civil Peace? Democracy, Political Change and Civil War, 1816-1992', American Political Science Review 95/1 (2001) pp.34-48.
45. Barbara Geddes, Paradigms and Sand Castles: Theory Building and Research Design in Comparative Politics (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press 2003). pp.71-77.
46. Jeff Goodwin and Theda Skocpol, 'Explaining Revolutions in the Contemporary World', Politics and Society 17/4 (1989) pp.489-509, p.495.
47. Juan J. Linz and Alfred Stepan, Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation: Southern Europe, South America, and Post-Communist Europe (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press 1996).
48. James M. Malloy, 'Authoritarianism and Corporatism in Latin America: The Modal Pattern' in James M. Malloy (ed.) Authoritarianism and Corporatism in Latin America (Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press 1977) pp. 3-19.
49. David Ronfeldt, 'The Modern Mexican Military' in Abraham Lowenthal and J. Samuel Fitch (eds) Armies and Politics in Latin America (New York: Holmes & Meier 1986) pp. 224-61.
50. Barbara Geddes, Paradigms and Sand Castles: Theory Building and Research Design in Comparative Politics (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press 2003). pp.71-77.
51. Jeff Goodwin and Theda Skocpol, 'Explaining Revolutions in the Contemporary World', Politics and Society 17/4 (1989) pp.495-500.
52. Timothy Wickham-Crowley, Guerrillas and Revolution in Latin America: A Comparative Study of Insurgents and Regimes Since 1956 (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press 1992) pp.158-60.
53. H. E. Chehabi and Juan J. Linz 'A Theory of Sultanism 1: A Type of Nondemocratic Rule' in H. E. Chehabi and Juan J. Linz (eds) Sultanistic Regimes (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press 1998) p.7.
54. see also Michael Bratton and Nicolas Van De Walle, 'Neopatrimonial Regimes and Political Transitions in Africa', World Politics 46/4 (1994) pp.453-89, p.458.
55. Michael Bratton and Nicolas Van De Walle, 'Neopatrimonial Regimes and Political Transitions in Africa', World Politics 46/4 (1994) p. 463.
56. H. E. Chehabi and Juan J. Linz 'A Theory of Sultanism 2: Genesis and Demise of Sultanistic Rule' in H. E. Chehabi and Juan J. Linz (eds) Sultanistic Regimes (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press 1998) p.41.
57. Michael Bratton and Nicolas Van De Walle, 'Neopatrimonial Regimes and Political Transitions in Africa', World Politics 46/4 (1994) pp.453-89, p.458.
58. Jeff Goodwin, No Other Way Out: States and Revolutionary Movements, 194-1991 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press 2001). pp.49-50.
59. Mansoob S. Murshed, 'Conflict, Civil War and Underdevelopment: An Introduction', Journal of Peace Research 39/4 (2002) pp.387-93, p.390.
60. Barbara Geddes, Paradigms and Sand Castles: Theory Building and Research Design in Comparative Politics (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press 2003). pp.71-77.
61. James D. Fearon and David D. Laitin, 'Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War', American Political Science Review 97/1 (2003) pp.75-90.
62. James D. Fearon and David D. Laitin, 'Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War', American Political Science Review 97/1 (2003) p.82.
63. Barbara Geddes, Paradigms and Sand Castles: Theory Building and Research Design in Comparative Politics (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press 2003). pp.71-77.
64. Joseph Wright, 'Do Authoritarian Constitutions Constrain? How Legislatures Affect Economic Growth and Investment', American Journal of Political Science 52/2 (2008) pp.322-43.
65. Jennifer Gandhi and Adam Przeworski, 'Authoritarian Institutions and the Survival of Autocrats', Comparative Political Studies 40/11 (2007) pp.1279-301.
66. Joseph Wright, 'Do Authoritarian Constitutions Constrain? How Legislatures Affect Economic Growth and Investment', American Journal of Political Science 52/2 (2008) pp.322-43. updated version of this dataset that extends the time period up to 2006 and includes monarchies as another form of authoritarian regime type.
67. Barbara Geddes, Paradigms and Sand Castles: Theory Building and Research Design in Comparative Politics (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press 2003). pp.71-77.
68. The Geddes data set includes all authoritarian regimes for the period between 1945 and 1997. Country years that are not coded in her dataset are treated as 'democratic'. Nevertheless, because the Geddes data set includes only authoritarian regimes that lasted at least three years between 1946 and 1997, the first three years are not coded. For example, Geddes does not code the year 1962 for Algeria because its authoritarian regime had not yet lasted three years. The default coding of the three 'uncoded' years would have resulted in those years being coded 'democratic' despite the fact that they are not. To deal with this issue we checked those country years and recoded them accordingly. These countries and years are: Afghanistan pre-1973 (monarchy) and post-1995 (single party personalist).
69. Algeria 1962 (single party military); Angola 1975 (single party); Azerbaijan pre-1993; Bahrain (monarchy); Benin 1960 (personalist) and 1971 (military); Bhutan (monarchy); Burundi 1994-95 (military personalist); Cameroon 1960 (single party personalist); Chad 1980-81 (personalist); China 1945-48 (single party); Democratic Republic of Congo 1960-64 (personalist); Djibouti 1977-98 (single party personalist); Egypt 1945-51 (monarchy); Indonesia 1966 (hybrid); Iran 1945-52 (monarchy); Ghana pre-1960 (single party personalist); Nepal 1945-51 (personalist); Pakistan 1970 (personalist); Somalia post-1990 (personalist); South Africa 1945-47 (single party); South Vietnam 1954-64 (personalist); Syria 1955-62 (hybrid); Tanzania 1960-63 (single party); Thailand 1945-47 (military); Togo 1960-61 and 1964-67 (personalist); Tunisia 1956 (single party); Libya 1951 (monarchy); Tajikistan 1991 (single party personalist); Mongolia 1945 (single party); Yemen Arab Republic 1962-78 (military), 1945-61 (personalist), and post-1978 (personalist).
70. Barbara Geddes, Paradigms and Sand Castles: Theory Building and Research Design in Comparative Politics (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press 2003). pp.71-77.
71. Barbara Geddes, Paradigms and Sand Castles: Theory Building and Research Design in Comparative Politics (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press 2003). pp.71-77.
72. Barbara Geddes, Paradigms and Sand Castles: Theory Building and Research Design in Comparative Politics (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press 2003). pp.71-77.
73. Joseph Wright, 'Do Authoritarian Constitutions Constrain? How Legislatures Affect Economic Growth and Investment', American Journal of Political Science 52/2 (2008) pp.322-43.
74. James D. Fearon and David D. Laitin, 'Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War', American Political Science Review 97/1 (2003) pp.75-90.
75. James D. Fearon and David D. Laitin, 'Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War', American Political Science Review 97/1 (2003) pp.75-90.
76. James D. Fearon and David D. Laitin, 'Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War', American Political Science Review 97/1 (2003) pp.75-90.
77. Jeff Goodwin, No Other Way Out: States and Revolutionary Movements, 194-1991 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press 2001).
78. Jeff Goodwin and Theda Skocpol, 'Explaining Revolutions in the Contemporary World', Politics and Society 17/4 (1989) pp.496-500.
79. Jack A. Goldstone, Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World (Berkeley, CA: University of California Press 1991).
80. Timothy Wickham-Crowley, Guerrillas and Revolution in Latin America: A Comparative Study of Insurgents and Regimes Since 1956 (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press 1992) pp.158-60.
81. Samuel P. Huntington, Political Order in Changing Societies (New Haven: Yale University Press 1968).
82. Todd B. Spinks, Emile Sahliyeh, and Brian Calfano, 'The Status of Democracy and Human Rights in the Middle East: Does Regime Type Make a Difference', Democratization 15/2 (2008) pp.321-41, p.330.
83. Nicola Van de Walle, 'Africa's Range of Regimes', Journal of Democracy 13/2 (2202) pp.66-80.
84. Nicholas Sambanis, 'What is Civil War? Conceptual and Empirical Complexities of an Operational Definition', Journal of Conflict Resolution 48/6 (2004) pp.814-58.
85. Jeff Goodwin, No Other Way Out: States and Revolutionary Movements, 194-1991 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press 2001).
86. T. David Mason and Dale A. Krane, 'The Political Economy of Death Squads', International Studies Quarterly 33/2 (1989) pp.175-98.
87. James D. Fearon and David D. Laitin, 'Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War', American Political Science Review 97/1 (2003) pp.75-90.
88. Håvard Hegre, Tanja Ellingsen, Nils Petter Gleditsch and Scott Gates, 'Towards a Democratic Civil Peace? Democracy, Political Change and Civil War, 1816-1992', American Political Science Review 95/1 (2001) pp.34-48.
89. Shawn Treier and Simon Jackman, 'Democracy as a Latent Variable', American Journal of Political Science 52/1 (2008) pp.201-17, p.202.
90. Kristian S. Gleditsch and Michael D. Ward, 'Double Take: A Reexamination of Democracy and Autocracy in Modern Polities', Journal of Conflict Resolution 41/3 (1997) pp.361-83.
91. Raymond James Vreeland, 'The Effect of Political Regime on Civil War: Unpacking Anocracy', Journal of Conflict Resolution 52/3 (2008) pp.401-25.
92. Raymond James Vreeland, 'The Effect of Political Regime on Civil War: Unpacking Anocracy', Journal of Conflict Resolution 52/3 (2008) p.420.