Predictive microbiology models vs. modeling microbial growth within Listeria monocytogenes risk assessment: What parameters matter and why

Food Microbiology

Volumn 28, Issue 4, 2011, Pages 720-726

  Pouillot, Régis ^a   Lubran, Meryl B ^b  

^a CENTER FOR DRUG EVALUATION AND RESEARCH   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND   (United States)

Author keywords

Listeria monocytogenes; Predictive microbiology; Quantitative risk assessment

Indexed keywords

ANIMAL; ARTICLE; BACTERIAL COUNT; BIOLOGICAL MODEL; COMPARATIVE STUDY; COMPUTER SIMULATION; FOOD CONTROL; GROWTH, DEVELOPMENT AND AGING; LISTERIA MONOCYTOGENES; LISTERIOSIS; METHODOLOGY; MICROBIOLOGY; MONTE CARLO METHOD; RISK ASSESSMENT; SEA FOOD;

ANIMALS; COLONY COUNT, MICROBIAL; COMPUTER SIMULATION; FISH PRODUCTS; FOOD MICROBIOLOGY; LISTERIA MONOCYTOGENES; LISTERIOSIS; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; MONTE CARLO METHOD; RISK ASSESSMENT;

BACTERIA (MICROORGANISMS); LISTERIA; LISTERIA MONOCYTOGENES;

EID: 79954611348     PISSN: 07400020     EISSN: 10959998     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.fm.2010.06.002     Document Type: Article

References (32)

1. Afchain A.-L., Derens E., Guilpart J., Cornu M. Statistical modelling of cold-smoked salmon thermal profiles for risk assessment of Listeria monocytogenes. Acta Horticulturae 2005, 674:383-388.
2. Augustin J.C., Zuliani V., Cornu M., Guillier L. Growth rate and growth probability of Listeria monocytogenes in dairy, meat and seafood products in suboptimal conditions. J. Appl. Microbiol. 2005, 99:1019-1042.
3. Baranyi J., Roberts T.A. A dynamic approach to predicting bacterial growth in food. Int. J. Food Microbiol. 1994, 23:277-294.
4. Baranyi J., Roberts T.A. Mathematics of predictive food microbiology. Int. J. Food Microbiol. 1995, 26:199-218.
5. Baranyi J., Robinson T.P., Kaloti A., Mackey B.M. Predicting growth of Brochothrix thermosphacta at changing temperature. Int. J. Food Microbiol. 1995, 27:61-75.
6. Baranyi J. Simple is good as long as it is enough. Food Microbiol. 1997, 14:391-394.
7. Bernaerts K., Dens E., Vereecken K., Geeraerd A.H., Standaert A.R., Devlieghere F., Debevere J., Van Impe J.F. Concepts and tools for predictive modeling of microbial dynamics. J. Food Prot. 2004, 67:2041-2052.
8. Buchanan R.L., Whiting R.C., Damert W.C. When is simple good enough: a comparison of the Gompertz, Baranyi, and three-phase linear models for fitting bacterial growth curves. Food Microbiol. 1997, 14:313-326.
9. Codex alimentarius Commission Principles and Guidelines for the Conduct of Microbiological Risk Assessment 1999, FAO Edition, Rome, p. 6.
10. Cornu M., Beaufort A., Rudelle S., Laloux L., Bergis H., Miconnet N., Serot T., Delignette-Muller M.L. Effect of temperature, water-phase salt and phenolic contents on Listeria monocytogenes growth rates on cold-smoked salmon and evaluation of secondary models. Int. J. Food Microbiol. 2006, 106:159-168.
11. Dalgaard P., Jorgensen L.V. Predicted and observed growth of Listeria monocytogenes in seafood challenge tests and in naturally contaminated cold-smoked salmon. Int. J. Food Microbiol. 1998, 40:105-115.
12. Delignette-Muller M.L., Cornu M., Pouillot R., Denis J.B. Use of Bayesian modelling in risk assessment: application to growth of Listeria monocytogenes and food flora in cold-smoked salmon. Int. J. Food Microbiol. 2006, 106:195-208.
13. Devlieghere F., Geeraerd A.H., Versyck K.J., Vandewaetere B., Van Impe J., Debevere J. Growth of Listeria monocytogenes in modified atmosphere packed cooked meat products: a predictive model. Food Microbiol. 2001, 18:53-66.
14. Ellouze M., Gauchi J.P., Augustin J.C. Global sensitivity analysis applied to a contamination assessment model of Listeria monocytogenes in cold smoked salmon at consumption. Risk Anal. 2010, 30:841-852.
15. FAO/WHO Risk Assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in Ready to Eat Foods - Technical Report. Microbiological Risk Assessment Series, No 5 2004, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and World Health Organization, Rome, p. 269.
16. FDA/FSIS Quantitative Assessment of Relative Risk to Public Health from Foodborne Listeria monocytogenes Among Selected Categories of Ready-to-Eat Foods 2003, Food and Drug Administration, United States Department of Agriculture, Center for Disease Control.
17. Francois K., Devlieghere F., Uyttendaele M., Debevere J. Risk assessment of Listeria monocytogenes: impact of individual cell variability on the exposure assessment step. Risk Anal. 2006, 26:105-114.
18. Gimenez B., Dalgaard P. Modelling and predicting the simultaneous growth of Listeria monocytogenes and spoilage micro-organisms in cold-smoked salmon. J. Appl. Microbiol. 2004, 96:96-109.
19. Guillier L., Augustin J.-C. Modelling the individual cell lag time distributions of Listeria monocytogenes as a function of the physiological state and the growth conditions. Int. J. Food Microbiol. 2006, 111:241-251.
20. Haas C.N., Rose J.B., Gerba C.P. Quantitative Microbial Risk Analysis 1999, Wiley, New York.
21. Mejlholm O., Dalgaard P. Development and Validation of an extensive growth and growth boundary model for Listeria monocytogenes in lightly preserved and ready-to-eat shrimp. J. Food Prot. 2009, 72:2132-2143.
22. Pouillot R., Miconnet N., Afchain A.L., Delignette-Muller M.L., Beaufort A., Rosso L., Denis J.B., Cornu M. Quantitative risk assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in French cold-smoked salmon: I. quantitative exposure assessment. Risk Anal. 2007, 27:683-700.
23. Pouillot R., Goulet V., Delignette-Muller M.L., Mahe A., Cornu M. Quantitative risk assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in French cold-smoked salmon: II. Risk Characterization. Risk Anal. 2009, 29:806-819.
24. Ratkowsky D.A., Olley J., McMeekin T.A., Ball T.A. Relationship between temperature and growth rate of bacterial cultures. J. Bacteriol. 1982, 149:1-5.
25. Ross T., McMeekin T.A. Modeling microbial growth within food safety risk assessments. Risk Anal. 2003, 23:179-197.
26. Ross T., Dalgaard P., Tienungoon S. Predictive modelling of the growth and survival of Listeria in fishery products. Int. J. Food Microbiol. 2000, 62:231-245.
27. Ross T., Rasmussen S., Fazil A., Paoli G., Summer J. Quantitative risk assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in ready-to-eat meats in Australia. Int. J. Food Microbiol. 2009, 131:128-137.
28. Ross T. Indices for performance evaluation of predictive models in food microbiology. J. Appl. Bacteriol. 1996, 81:501-508.
29. Standaert A.R., Francois K., Devlieghere F., Debevere J., Van Impe J.F., Geeraerd A.H. Modeling individual cell lag time distributions for Listeria monocytogenes. Risk Anal. 2007, 27:241-254.
30. Swinnen I.A., Bernaerts K., Dens E.J., Geeraerd A.H., Van Impe J.F. Predictive modelling of the microbial lag phase: a review. Int. J. Food Microbiol. 2004, 94:137-159.
31. USDA Pathogen Modeling Program 2001, http://ars.usda.gov/Services/docs.htm%3Fdocid%3D6784.
32. van Gerwen S.J.C., Zwietering M.H. Growth and inactivation models to be used in quantitative risk assessments. J. Food Prot. 1998, 61:1541-1549.