메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 30, Issue 9, 2011, Pages 984-994

Effective reproduction numbers are commonly overestimated early in a disease outbreak

Author keywords

Bias; Importation; Influenza; Reproduction number

Indexed keywords

2009 H1N1 INFLUENZA; ARTICLE; AWARENESS; CALCULATION; CONTROLLED STUDY; DISEASE TRANSMISSION; EFFECTIVE REPRODUCTION NUMBER; EPIDEMIC; EPIDEMIOLOGICAL DATA; HEALTH SURVEY; MATHEMATICAL MODEL; POPULATION SIZE; PROBABILITY; SYSTEMATIC ERROR;

EID: 79953156903     PISSN: 02776715     EISSN: 10970258     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/sim.4174     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (57)

References (31)
  • 1
    • 68149183702 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Transmission potential of the new influenza A(H1N1) virus and its age-specificity in Japan
    • Pii= 19227.
    • Nishiura H, Castillo-Chavez C, Safan M, Chowell G. Transmission potential of the new influenza A(H1N1) virus and its age-specificity in Japan. Euro Surveillance 2009; 14(22). Pii= 19227.
    • (2009) Euro Surveillance , vol.14 , Issue.22
    • Nishiura, H.1    Castillo-Chavez, C.2    Safan, M.3    Chowell, G.4
  • 2
    • 77149155310 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Pros and cons of estimating the reproduction number from early epidemic growth rate of influenza A(H1N1) 2009
    • DOI: 10.1186/1742-4682-7-1.
    • Nishiura H, Chowell G, Safan M, Castillo-Chavez C. Pros and cons of estimating the reproduction number from early epidemic growth rate of influenza A(H1N1) 2009. Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling 2010; 7(1):1. DOI: 10.1186/1742-4682-7-1.
    • (2010) Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling , vol.7 , Issue.1 , pp. 1
    • Nishiura, H.1    Chowell, G.2    Safan, M.3    Castillo-Chavez, C.4
  • 4
    • 77952489405 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Outbreak of 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1), Los Lagos, Chile, April-June 2009 XXX Chilean Task Force for study of Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1)
    • Pii= 19456.
    • Pedroni E, García M, Espínola V, Guerrero A, González C. Outbreak of 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1), Los Lagos, Chile, April-June 2009 XXX Chilean Task Force for study of Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1). Euro Surveillance 2010; 15(1). Pii= 19456.
    • (2010) Euro Surveillance , vol.15 , Issue.1
    • Pedroni, E.1    García, M.2    Espínola, V.3    Guerrero, A.4    González, C.5
  • 5
    • 68149155428 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimating the reproduction number of the novel influenza A virus (H1N1) in a Southern Hemisphere setting: preliminary estimate in New Zealand
    • Nishiura H, Wilson N, Baker M. Estimating the reproduction number of the novel influenza A virus (H1N1) in a Southern Hemisphere setting: preliminary estimate in New Zealand. Journal of the New Zealand Medical Association 2009; 122(1299):73-77.
    • (2009) Journal of the New Zealand Medical Association , vol.122 , Issue.1299 , pp. 73-77
    • Nishiura, H.1    Wilson, N.2    Baker, M.3
  • 6
    • 39049160050 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Quantifying the transmission potential of pandemic influenza
    • DOI: 10.1016/j.plrev.2007.12.001.
    • Chowell G, Nishiura H. Quantifying the transmission potential of pandemic influenza. Physics of Life Reviews 2008; 5(1):50-77. DOI: 10.1016/j.plrev.2007.12.001.
    • (2008) Physics of Life Reviews , vol.5 , Issue.1 , pp. 50-77
    • Chowell, G.1    Nishiura, H.2
  • 8
    • 33747589306 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Appropriate models for the management of infectious diseases
    • DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.0020174.
    • Wearing H, Rohani P, Keeling M. Appropriate models for the management of infectious diseases. PLoS Med 07 2005; 2(7):e174. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.0020174.
    • (2005) PLoS Med 07 , vol.2 , Issue.7
    • Wearing, H.1    Rohani, P.2    Keeling, M.3
  • 9
    • 34249951995 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • How generation intervals shape the relationship between growth rates and reproductive numbers
    • DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2006.3754.
    • Wallinga J, Lipsitch M. How generation intervals shape the relationship between growth rates and reproductive numbers. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 2007; 274(1609):599-604. DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2006.3754.
    • (2007) Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences , vol.274 , Issue.1609 , pp. 599-604
    • Wallinga, J.1    Lipsitch, M.2
  • 10
    • 33846862467 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Comparative estimation of the reproduction number for pandemic influenza from daily case notification data
    • DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2006.0161.
    • Chowell G, Nishiura H, Bettencourt L. Comparative estimation of the reproduction number for pandemic influenza from daily case notification data. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 2007; 4(12):155-166. DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2006.0161.
    • (2007) Journal of the Royal Society Interface , vol.4 , Issue.12 , pp. 155-166
    • Chowell, G.1    Nishiura, H.2    Bettencourt, L.3
  • 11
    • 4544318829 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Different epidemic curves for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome reveal similar impacts of control measures
    • DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwh255.
    • Wallinga J, Teunis P. Different epidemic curves for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome reveal similar impacts of control measures. American Journal of Epidemiology 2004; 160(6):509-516. DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwh255.
    • (2004) American Journal of Epidemiology , vol.160 , Issue.6 , pp. 509-516
    • Wallinga, J.1    Teunis, P.2
  • 12
    • 33748775204 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimating in real time the efficacy of measures to control emerging communicable diseases
    • DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwj274.
    • Cauchemez S, Boelle PY, Thomas G, Valleron AJ. Estimating in real time the efficacy of measures to control emerging communicable diseases. American Journal of Epidemiology 2006; 164(6):591-597. DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwj274.
    • (2006) American Journal of Epidemiology , vol.164 , Issue.6 , pp. 591-597
    • Cauchemez, S.1    Boelle, P.Y.2    Thomas, G.3    Valleron, A.J.4
  • 13
    • 48049084567 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A likelihood-based method for real-time estimation of the serial interval and reproductive number of an epidemic
    • White LF, Pagano M. A likelihood-based method for real-time estimation of the serial interval and reproductive number of an epidemic. Statistics in Medicine 2008; 27(16):2999-3016.
    • (2008) Statistics in Medicine , vol.27 , Issue.16 , pp. 2999-3016
    • White, L.F.1    Pagano, M.2
  • 15
    • 48249114024 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Real time bayesian estimation of the epidemic potential of emerging infectious diseases
    • DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0002185.
    • Bettencourt L, Ribeiro R. Real time bayesian estimation of the epidemic potential of emerging infectious diseases. PLoS One 2008; 3(5):e2185. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0002185.
    • (2008) PLoS One , vol.3 , Issue.5
    • Bettencourt, L.1    Ribeiro, R.2
  • 16
    • 77955333535 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Community circulation of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza was established in one Australian state at the same time the virus was first recognized in North America
    • Kelly H, Mercer G, Fielding J, Dowse G, Glass K, Carcione D, Grant K, Effler P, Lester R. Community circulation of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza was established in one Australian state at the same time the virus was first recognized in North America. PLoS One 2010; 5(6):11-341.
    • (2010) PLoS One , vol.5 , Issue.6 , pp. 11-341
    • Kelly, H.1    Mercer, G.2    Fielding, J.3    Dowse, G.4    Glass, K.5    Carcione, D.6    Grant, K.7    Effler, P.8    Lester, R.9
  • 17
    • 70349317360 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Description of the early stage of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 in Germany, 27 April-16 June 2009
    • Novel influenza A(H1N1) investigation team (2009). Pii= 19295.
    • Novel influenza A(H1N1) investigation team (2009). Description of the early stage of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 in Germany, 27 April-16 June 2009. Euro Surveillance 2009; 14(31). Pii= 19295.
    • (2009) Euro Surveillance , vol.14 , Issue.31
  • 18
    • 77950324889 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Enhanced surveillance of initial cases of pandemic H1N1 2009 influenza in Ireland, April-July 2009
    • Pii= 19337.
    • Martin J, O'Donnell J, Igoe D, O'Hora A, Thornton L. Enhanced surveillance of initial cases of pandemic H1N1 2009 influenza in Ireland, April-July 2009. Euro Surveillance 2009; 14(38). Pii= 19337.
    • (2009) Euro Surveillance , vol.14 , Issue.38
    • Martin, J.1    O'Donnell, J.2    Igoe, D.3    O'Hora, A.4    Thornton, L.5
  • 19
    • 68849095509 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • New influenza A(H1N1) virus infections in Spain, April-May 2009
    • Surveillance Group for New Influenza A(H1N1) Virus Investigation and Control in Spain (2009). Pii= 19209.
    • Surveillance Group for New Influenza A(H1N1) Virus Investigation and Control in Spain (2009). New influenza A(H1N1) virus infections in Spain, April-May 2009. Euro Surveillance 2009; 14(19). Pii= 19209.
    • (2009) Euro Surveillance , vol.14 , Issue.19
  • 22
    • 77954575710 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Type and quantity of data needed for an early estimate of transmissibility when an infectious disease emerges
    • Pii= 19603.
    • Becker N, Wang D, Clements M. Type and quantity of data needed for an early estimate of transmissibility when an infectious disease emerges. Euro Surveillance 2010; 15(26). Pii= 19603.
    • (2010) Euro Surveillance , vol.15 , Issue.26
    • Becker, N.1    Wang, D.2    Clements, M.3
  • 24
    • 70450222692 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Epidemic modelling: aspects where stochasticity matters
    • DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2009.10.001.
    • Britton T, Lindenstrand D. Epidemic modelling: aspects where stochasticity matters. Mathematical Biosciences 2009; 222(2):109-116. DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2009.10.001.
    • (2009) Mathematical Biosciences , vol.222 , Issue.2 , pp. 109-116
    • Britton, T.1    Lindenstrand, D.2
  • 25
    • 85008776311 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The impact of dispersion in the number of secondary infections on the probability of an epidemic
    • Barnes B, Becker N. The impact of dispersion in the number of secondary infections on the probability of an epidemic. Journal of Statistical Theory and Practice 2008; 2:145-158.
    • (2008) Journal of Statistical Theory and Practice , vol.2 , pp. 145-158
    • Barnes, B.1    Becker, N.2
  • 26
    • 0018869039 scopus 로고
    • On the spread of disease with gamma distributed latent and infectious periods
    • Anderson D, Watson R. On the spread of disease with gamma distributed latent and infectious periods. Biometrika 1980; 67:191-198.
    • (1980) Biometrika , vol.67 , pp. 191-198
    • Anderson, D.1    Watson, R.2
  • 27
    • 77955104514 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimation of the reproduction number for 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) in the presence of imported cases
    • Pii= 19622.
    • Nishiura H, Roberts M. Estimation of the reproduction number for 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) in the presence of imported cases. Euro Surveillance 2010; 15(29). Pii= 19622.
    • (2010) Euro Surveillance , vol.15 , Issue.29
    • Nishiura, H.1    Roberts, M.2
  • 28
    • 77954295376 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Transmissibility of 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) in New Zealand: effective reproduction number and influence of age, ethnicity and importations
    • Pii= 19591.
    • Paine S, Mercer G, Kelly P, Bandaranayake D, Baker M, Huang S, Mackereth G, Bissielo A, Glass K, Hope V. Transmissibility of 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) in New Zealand: effective reproduction number and influence of age, ethnicity and importations. Euro Surveillance 2010; 15(24). Pii= 19591.
    • (2010) Euro Surveillance , vol.15 , Issue.24
    • Paine, S.1    Mercer, G.2    Kelly, P.3    Bandaranayake, D.4    Baker, M.5    Huang, S.6    Mackereth, G.7    Bissielo, A.8    Glass, K.9    Hope, V.10
  • 30
    • 42549083490 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Quantifying social distancing arising from pandemic influenza
    • DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2007.1197.
    • Caley P, Philp D, McCracken K. Quantifying social distancing arising from pandemic influenza. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 2008; 5(23):631-639. DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2007.1197.
    • (2008) Journal of the Royal Society Interface , vol.5 , Issue.23 , pp. 631-639
    • Caley, P.1    Philp, D.2    McCracken, K.3
  • 31
    • 0009424146 scopus 로고
    • Asymptotic properties of some estimators for the infection rate in the general stochastic epidemic model
    • Rida W. Asymptotic properties of some estimators for the infection rate in the general stochastic epidemic model. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, B 1991; 53(1):269-283.
    • (1991) Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, B , vol.53 , Issue.1 , pp. 269-283
    • Rida, W.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.