Short- and medium-range prediction of tropical and transitioning cyclone tracks within the NCEP global ensemble forecasting system

Weather and Forecasting

Volumn 25, Issue 6, 2010, Pages 1736-1754

  Buckingham, Christian ^a   Marchok, Timothy ^b   Ginis, Isaac ^a   Rothstein, Lewis ^a   Rowe, Dail ^c  

^a UNIVERSITY OF RHODE ISLAND   (United States)

^b NOAA EARTH SYSTEM RESEARCH LABORATORY   (United States)

^c WeatherPredict Consulting Inc   (United States)

Author keywords

Ensembles; Extratropical cyclones; Forecasting; Storm tracks; Tropical cyclones

Indexed keywords

CROSS-TRACK ERRORS; CYCLONE TRACKS; DISPERSION CHARACTERISTICS; DISPERSION DIAGRAMS; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; ENSEMBLES; EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONES; EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION; FORECASTING SYSTEM; LEAD TIME; LONG LEADS; MISSING RATE; SAMPLE SIZES; STORM TRACKS; TRACK ERRORS; TROPICAL CYCLONE; WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC;

DISPERSIONS; HURRICANES; STORMS; TROPICS;

FORECASTING;

ACCURACY ASSESSMENT; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; ERROR ANALYSIS; STORM TRACK; TROPICAL CYCLONE;

ATLANTIC OCEAN; PACIFIC OCEAN; PACIFIC OCEAN (NORTH);

EID: 78650992895     PISSN: 08828156     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/2010WAF2222398.1     Document Type: Article

References (29)

1. Barnes, S. L., 1964: A technique for maximizing details in numerical weather map analysis. J. Appl. Meteor., 3, 396-409.
2. Buizza, R., and T. N. Palmer, 1998: Impact of ensemble size on ensemble prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 2503-2518.
3. Buizza, R., P. L. Houtekamer, Z. Toth, G. Pellerin, M. Wei, and Y. Zhu, 2005: A comparison of the ECMWF, MSC, and NCEP global ensemble prediction systems. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 1076-1097.
4. Campana, K., and Coauthors, cited 2009: Technical Procedures Bulletin for the T382 Global Forecast System. [Available online at http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/Documentation/TPBoct05/T382.TPB.FINAL.htm.]
5. Carr, L. E., III, and R. L. Elsberry, 2000: Dynamical tropical cyclone track forecast errors. Part II: Midlatitude circulation influences. Wea. Forecasting, 15, 662-681.
6. Eckel, F. A., and C. Mass, 2005: Aspects of effective mesoscale, short-range ensemble forecasting. Wea. Forecasting, 20, 328-350.
7. Efron, B., 1979: Bootstrap methods: Another look at the jackknife. Ann. Stat., 7, 1-26.
8. Efron, B., and R. J. Tibshirani, 1993: An Introduction to the Bootstrap. CRC Press, 436 pp.
9. Elsberry, R., and L. E. Carr III, 2000: Consensus of dynamical tropical cyclone track forecasts-Errors versus spread. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 4131-4138.
10. Emery, W. J., and R. E. Thompson, 2001: Data Analysis Methods in Physical Oceanography. 2nd. ed. Elsevier, 638 pp.
11. Froude, L. S. R., L. Bengtsson, and K. Hodges, 2007: The prediction of extratropical storm tracks by the ECMWF and NCEP ensemble prediction systems. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 2545-2567.
12. Goerss, J. S., 2000: Tropical cyclone track forecasts using an ensemble of dynamical models. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 1187-1193.
13. Goerss, J. S., 2007: Prediction of consensus tropical cyclone track forecast error. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 1985-1993.
14. Jones, S. C., and Coauthors, 2003: The extratropical transition of tropical cyclones: Forecast challenges, current understanding, and future directions. Wea. Forecasting, 18, 1052-1092.
15. Marchok, T., 2002: How the NCEP tropical cyclone tracker works. Preprints, 25th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, San Diego, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., P1.13. [Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/37628.pdf.]
16. McClung, T., 2009: Amended Date: Global Ensemble Forecast System/North American Ensemble Forecast System changes: Effective February 23, 2010. NWS Tech. Implementation Notice 09-34. [Available online at http://www.weather.gov/os/notification/tin09-34aab_gefs.txt.]
17. Park, Y.-Y., R. Buizza, and M. Leutbecher, 2008: TIGGE: Preliminary results on comparing and combining ensembles. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 134, 2029-2050.
18. Payne, K. A., R. L. Elseberry, and M. A. Boothe, 2007: Assessment of western North Pacific 96- and 120-h track guidance and present forecastability. Wea. Forecasting, 22, 1003-1015.
19. Rappaport, E. N., and Coauthors, 2009: Advances and challenges at the National Hurricane Center. Wea. Forecasting, 24, 395-419.
20. Rice, J. A., 1995: Mathematical Statistics and Data Analysis. 2nd ed. Duxbury Press, 602 pp.
21. Sampson, C. R., J. A. Knaff, and E. M. Fukada, 2007: Operational evaluation of a selective consensus in the western North Pacific basin. Wea. Forecasting, 22, 671-675.
22. Talagrand, O., R. Vautrard, and B. Strauss, 1997: Evaluation of probabilistic prediction systems. Proc. ECMWF Workshop on Predictability, Reading, United Kingdom, ECMWF, 1-25.
23. Wei, M., Z. Toth, R. Wobus, and Y. Zhu, 2008: Initial perturbations based on the ensemble transform (ET) technique in the NCEP global operational forecast system. Tellus, 60A, 60-79.
24. Wilks, D. S., 2006: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. 2nd ed. Academic Press, 627 pp.
25. Williford, C. E., T. N. Krishnamurti, R. Correa Torres, S. Cocke, Z. Christidis, and T. S. Vijaya Kumar, 2003: Real-time multimodel superensemble forecasts of Atlantic tropical systems of 1999. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 1878-1894.
26. Yamaguchi, M., R. Sakai, M. Kyoda, T. Komori, and T. Kadowaki, 2009: Typhoon ensemble prediction system developed at the JapanMeteorologicalAgency. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 2592-2604.
27. Zhang, Z., and T. N. Krishnamurti, 1997: Ensemble forecasting of hurricane tracks. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 2785-2795.
28. Zhang, Z., and T. N. Krishnamurti, 1999: A perturbation method for hurricane ensemble predictions. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, 447-469.
29. Ziehmann, C., 2000: Comparison of a single-model EPS with a multi-model ensemble consisting of a few operational models. Tellus, 52A, 280-299.