Consensus of dynamical tropical cyclone track forecasts - Errors versus spread

Monthly Weather Review

Volumn 128, Issue 12, 2000, Pages 4131-4138

  Elsberry, Russell L ^a   Carr III, Lester E ^a  

^a NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ERROR ANALYSIS; TRACKING; TROPICAL CYCLONE; WEATHER FORECASTING;

PACIFIC OCEAN;

EID: 0034466318     PISSN: 00270644     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(2000)129<4131:CODTCT>2.0.CO;2     Document Type: Article

References (4)

1. Buizza, R., 1997: Potential forecast skill of ensemble prediction and spread and skill distributions of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 99-119.
2. Carr, L. E., III, and R. L. Elsberry, 1999: Systematic and integrated approach to tropical cyclone track forecasting. Part III: Traits knowledge base for JTWC track forecast models in the western North Pacific. Tech. Rep. NPS-MR-99-002, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA, 227 pp. [Available from R. L. Elsberry, Dept. of Meteorology, Naval Postgraduate School, Code MR/ Es, 589 Dyer Rd., Room 254, Monterey, CA 93943-5114.]
3. Goerss, J., 2000: Tropical cyclone track forecasts using an ensemble of dynamical models. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 1187-1193.
4. Whitaker, J. S., and A. F. Loughe, 1998: The relationship between ensemble spread and ensemble mean skill. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 3292-3302.