Assessment of western North Pacific 96- and 120-h track guidance and present forecastability

Weather and Forecasting

Volumn 22, Issue 5, 2007, Pages 1003-1015

  Payne, Kathryn A ^a   Elsberry, Russell L ^a   Boothe, Mark A ^a  

^a NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC MOVEMENTS; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; STATISTICAL METHODS; STORMS;

GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL; TROPICAL CYCLONE;

WEATHER FORECASTING;

ASSESSMENT METHOD; ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION; ATMOSPHERIC STRUCTURE; CLIMATE MODELING; ERROR ANALYSIS; STORM TRACK; TROPICAL CYCLONE; WARNING SYSTEM; WEATHER FORECASTING;

ASIA; CHINA; EURASIA; FAR EAST; QINGHAI-XIZANG PLATEAU;

EID: 35948946594     PISSN: 08828156     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/WAF1030.1     Document Type: Article

References (11)

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2. Carr, L. E., III, and R. L. Elsberry, 2000a: Dynamical tropical cyclone track forecast errors. Part I: Tropical region errors. Wea. Forecasting, 115, 641-661.
3. Carr, L. E., III, and R. L. Elsberry, 2000b: Dynamical tropical cyclone track forecast errors. Part II: Midlatitude circulation influences. Wea. Forecasting, 15, 662-681.
4. Carr, L. E., III, R. L. Elsberry, and J. E. Peak, 2001: Beta test of the systematic approach expert system prototype as a tropical cyclone track forecasting aid. Wea. Forecasting, 16, 355-368.
5. Elsberry, R. L., and L. E. Carr, 2000: Consensus of dynamical tropical cyclone track forecasts - Error versus spread. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 4131-4138.
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8. Jeffries, R. A., and E. J. Fukada, 2002: Consensus approach to track forecasting. Extended Abstracts, Fifth Int. Workshop on Tropical Cyclones, Cairns, Australia, World Meteorological Organization, TP3.2.
9. Kehoe, R. M., M. A. Boothe, and R. L. Elsberry, 2007: Dynamical tropical cyclone 96- and 120-h track forecast errors in the western North Pacific. Wea. Forecasting, 22, 520-538.
10. Payne, K. A., 2006: Evaluation of causes of large 96-h and 120-h track errors in the western North Pacific. M.S. thesis, Dept. of Meteorology, Naval Postgraduate School, 89 pp. [Available online at http://thesis.nps.navy.mil/06Jun_Payne.pdf.]
11. Sampson, C. R., J. A. Knaff, and E. M. Fukada, 2007: Operational evaluation of a selective consensus in the western North Pacific basin. Wea. Forecasting, 22, 671-675.