Testing forecasts of a new Bayesian time-predictable model of eruption occurrence

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research

Volumn 198, Issue 1-2, 2010, Pages 57-75

  Passarelli, L ^a,b   Sanso B ^b   Sandri, L ^a   Marzocchi, W ^a  

^a ISTITUTO NAZIONALE DI GEOFISICA E VULCANOLOGIA   (Italy)

^b University of California Santa Cruz   (United States)

Author keywords

Bayesian hierarchical modeling; Effusive volcanism; Kilauea; Mount Etna; Probabilistic forecasting; Volcanic hazards

Indexed keywords

EFFUSIVE VOLCANISM; HIERARCHICAL MODELING; KILAUEA; MOUNT ETNA; PROBABILISTIC FORECASTING; VOLCANIC HAZARDS;

BAYESIAN NETWORKS; FORECASTING; HAZARDS; HIERARCHICAL SYSTEMS; MOUNTINGS; STATISTICAL TESTS;

VOLCANOES;

BAYESIAN ANALYSIS; FORECASTING METHOD; HAZARD ASSESSMENT; NATURAL HAZARD; NUMERICAL MODEL; PROBABILITY; VOLCANIC ERUPTION; VOLCANISM;

CATANIA [SICILY]; ETNA; ITALY; SICILY;

EID: 78650173827     PISSN: 03770273     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2010.08.011     Document Type: Article

References (50)

1. Acocella V., Neri M. What makes flank eruptions? The 2001 Etna eruption and its possible triggering mechanisms. Bull. Volcanol. 2003, 65:517-529. 10.1007/s00445-003-0280-3.
2. Aki K., Ferrazzini V. Comparison of Mount Etna, Kilauea, and Piton de la Fournaise by a quantitative modeling of their eruption histories. J. Geophys. Res. 2001, 106(B3):4091-4102.
3. Allard P., Behncke B., D'Amico S., Neri M., Gambino S. Mount Etna 1993-2005: anatomy of an evolving eruptive cycle. Earth Sci. Rev. 2006, 78:85-114. 10.1016/j.earscirev.2006.04.002.
4. Andronico D., Lodato L. Effusive activity at Mount Etna volcano (Italy) during the 20th century: a contribution to volcanic hazard assessment. Nat. Hazards 2005, 36:407-443.
5. Andronico D., Branca S., Calvari S., Burton M., Caltabiano T., Corsaro A.R., Del Carlo P., Garfì G., Lodato L., Miraglia L., Murè F., Neri M., Pecora E., Pompilio M., Salerno G., Spampinato L. A multi-disciplinary study of the 2002-03 Etna eruption: insights into a complex plumbing system. Bull. Volcanol. 2005, 67:314-330. 10.1007/s00445-004-0372-8.
6. Bebbington M.S. Identifying volcanic regimes using Hidden Markov Models. Geophys. J. Int. 2007, 171:921-941.
7. Bebbington M. Incorporating the eruptive history in a stochastic model for volcanic eruptions. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 2008, 175:325-333.
8. Bebbington M.S., Lai C.D. Statistical analysis of New Zealand volcanic occurrence data. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 1996, 74:101-110.
9. Bebbington M.S., Lai C.D. On nonhomogeneous models for volcanic eruptions. Math. Geology 1996, 28(5):585-600.
10. Behncke B., Neri M. Cycles and trends in the recent eruptive behaviour of Mount Etna (Italy). Can. J. Earth Sci. 2003, 40:1405-1411. 10.1139/E03â€"052.
11. Behncke B., Neri M., Nagay A. Lava flow hazard at Mount Etna (Italy): new data from GIS-based study. Geological Society of America, Special Paper 2005, vol. 396:189-208. 10.1130/2005.2396(13). M. Manga, G. Ventura (Eds.).
12. Behncke B., Calvari S., Giammanco S., Neri M., Pinkerton H. Pyroclastic density currents resulting from the interaction of basaltic magma with hydrothermally altered rock: an example from the 2006 summit eruptions of Mount Etna. Bull. Volcanol. 2008, 70:1249-1268. 10.1007/s00445-008-0200-7.
13. Bonforte A., Bonaccorso A., Guglielmino F., Palano M., Puglisi G. Feeding system and magma storage beneath Mt. Etna as revealed by recent inflation/deflation cycles. J. Geophys. Res. 2008, 113(B05406). 10.1029/2007JB005334.
14. Branca S., Del Carlo P. Types of eruptions of Etna volcano AD 1670-2003: implication for short term eruptive behavior. Bull. Volcanol. 2005, 67:732-742. 10.1007/s00445-005-0412-z.
15. Burt M.L., Wadge G., Scott W.A. Simple stochastic modelling of eruption history of basaltic volcano: Nyamuragira, Zaire. Bull. Volcanol. 1994, 56:87-97.
16. Burton M., Neri M., Andronico D., Branca S., Caltabiano T., Calvari S., Corsaro R.A., Del Carlo P., Lanzafame G., Lodato L., Miraglia L., Salerno G., Spampinato L. Etna 2004-2005: an archetype for geodynamically-controlled effusive eruptions. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2005, 32:L09303. 10.1029/2005GL022527.
17. Chiarabba C., Amato A., Boschi E., Barberi F. Recent seismicity and tomographic modeling of the Mount Etna plumbing system. J. Geophys. Res. 2000, 105(B5):10923-10938.
18. De la Cruz-Reyna S. Poisson-distributed patterns of explosive eruptive activity. Bull. Volcanol. 1991, 54:57-67.
19. Dvorak J.J., Dzurisin D. Variations in magma-supply rate at Kilauea volcano, Hawaii. J. Geophys. Res. 1993, 98:22255-22268.
20. Gasperini P., Gresta S., Mulargia F. Statistical analysis of seismic and eruptive activities at Mount Etna during 1978-1987. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 1990, 40:317-325.
21. Gelman A. Inference and monitoring convergence. Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice 1996, 131-143. Chapman & Hall, London. 2nd ed. W.R. Gilks, S. Richardson, D.J. Spiegelhalter (Eds.).
22. Gelman A., Carlin J.B., Stern H.S., Rubin D.B. Bayesian Data Analysis 2000, Chapman & Hall/CRC, Boca Raton-Florida. 1st ed.
23. Gilks W.R., Richardson S., Spiegelhalter D.J. Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice 1996, Chapman & Hall, London. 2nd ed.
24. Gilks W.R., Richardson S., Spiegelhalter D.J. Introducing Markov chain Monte Carlo. Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice 1996, 1-19. Chapman & Hall, London. 2nd ed. W.R. Gilks, S. Richardson, D.J. Spiegelhalter (Eds.).
25. Gudmundsson A. Possible effect of aspect ratios of magma chambers on eruption frequency. Geology 1986, 14:991-994.
26. Ho C.H. Nonhomogeneous Poisson model for volcanic eruptions. Math. Geol. 1991, 23:167-173.
27. Ho C.H. Statistical control chart for regime identification in volcanic time-series. Math. Geol. 1992, 24:775-787.
28. Holcomb R.T. Eruptive history and long term behavior of Kilauea volcano. U.S. Geol. Surv. Prof. Pap. 1987, vol. 1350:261-350. R.W. Decker, T.L. Wrigth, P.H. Stauffer (Eds.).
29. Kagan Y.Y., Knopoff L. Statistical short-term earthquake prediction. Science 1987, 236(4808):1563-1567.
30. Klein F.W. Patterns of historical eruptions at Hawaiian Volcanoes. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 1982, 12:1-35.
31. Klein F.W., Koyanagi R.Y., Nakata J.S., Tanigawa W.R. The seismicity of Kilauea's magma system. U.S. Geol. Surv. Prof. Pap. 1987, vol. 1350:1019-1185.
32. Marzocchi W. Chaos and stocasticity in volcanic eruptions the case of Mount Etna and Vesuvius. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 1996, 70:205-212.
33. Marzocchi W., Zaccarelli L. A quantitative model for the time size distribution of eruptions. J. Geophys. Res. 2006, 111. 10.1029/2005JB003709.
34. Marzocchi W., Sandri L., Selva J. BET_EF: a probabilistic tool for long- and short-term eruption forecasting. Bull. Volcanol. 2008, 70:623-632. 10.1007/s00445-007-0157-y.
35. Mulargia F., Tinti S., Boschi E. A statistical analysis of flank eruptions on Etna Volcano. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 1985, 23:263-272.
36. Mulargia F., Gasperini P., Tinti S. Identifying different regimes in eruptive activity: an application to Etna volcano. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 1987, 34:89-106.
37. Newhall C.G., Hoblitt R.P. Constructing event trees for volcanic crises. Bull. Volcanol. 2002, 64:3-20. 10.1007/s004450100173.
38. Passarelli L., Sandri L., Bonazzi A., Marzocchi W. Bayesian Hierarchical Time Predictable Model for eruption occurrence: an application to Kilauea Volcano, published on-line Apr 8 2010. Geophys. J. Int. 2010, 181:1525-1538. 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2010.04582.x.
39. Patanè D., De Gori P., Chiarabba C., Bonaccorso A. Magma ascent and the pressurization of Mount Etna's volcanic system. Science 2003, 299:29. 29 March 2003.
40. Rubin D.B. Using the SIR algorithm to simulate posterior distributions. Bayesian Statistics-3 1988, 395-402. Oxford University Press, Oxford. J.W. Bernardo, M.H. DeGroot, D.V. Lindley, A.F.M. Smith (Eds.).
41. Salvi F., Scandone R., Palma C. Statistical analysis of the historical activity of Mount Etna, aimed at the evaluation of volcanic hazard. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 2006, 154:159-168. 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2006.01.002.
42. Sandri L., Marzocchi W., Gasperini P. Some inside on the occurrence of recent volcanic eruptions of Mount Etna volcano (Sicily, Italy). J. Geophys. Res. 2005, 163:1203-1218.
43. Smethurst L., James M.R., Pinkerton H., Tawn J.A. A statistical analysis of eruptive activity on Mount Etna, Sicily. Geophys. J. Int. 2009, 179:655-666.
44. Smith A.F.M., Gelfand A.E. Bayesian statistics without fear: a sampling resampling prespective. Am. Stat. 1992, 46:84-88.
45. Sparks R.S.J. Forecasting volcanic eruptions. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 2003, 210:1-15.
46. Takada A. Variations in magma supply and magma partitioning: the role of the tectonic settings. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 1999, 93:93-110.
47. Tanguy J.C., Condomines M., Kieffer G. Evolution of the Mount Etna magma: constraints on the present feeding system and eruptive mechanism. J. Volcano. Geotherm. Res. 1997, 221-250.
48. 230Th dating. Bull. Volcanol. 2007, 70:55-83. 10.1007/s00445-007-0121-x.
49. Wadge G., Walker W.P.L., Guest J.E. The output of Etna volcano. Nature 1975, 255:385-387.
50. Wikle C.K. Hierarchical models in environmental science. Int. Stat. Rev. 2003, 71-2:181-199.