How do rising powers rise?

Survival

Volumn 52, Issue 6, 2011, Pages 63-88

  Hart, Andrew F ^a   Jones, Bruce D ^a  

^a NEW YORK UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 78649785741     PISSN: 00396338     EISSN: 14682699     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2010.540783     Document Type: Article

References (47)

1. Fareed Zakaria, The Post-American World (New York: Norton, 2008).
2. Richard Haass, 'The Age of Nonpolarity: What Will Follow U.S. Dominance?', Foreign Afairs, vol. 87, no. 3, May-June 2008, pp. 44-56.
3. Kishore Mahbubani, The New Asian Hemisphere: The Irresistible Shift of Global Power to the East (New York: PublicAfairs, 2008).
4. This is, of course, complicated by the fact that there is no commonly accepted defnition of what a 'great power' is either. As Martin Wight noted, 'it is always easier to answer historically. than by giving a defnition, for there is always broad agreement about the existing great powers'. See Martin Wight, Power Politics (Harmondsworth: Penguin, 1944), p. 41.
5. Most international relations scholarship relies on the notion that a great power is 'a state [having] sufcient military assets to put up a serious fght in an all-out conventional war against the most powerful state in the world'. See John J. Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (New York: Norton, 2001), p. 5.
6. 'The BRICS: The Trillion-Dollar Club', Economist, 15 April 2010, http://www.economist.com/node/15912964?story_id=15912964.
7. Dominic Wilson and Roopa Purushothaman, 'Dreaming With BRICs: The Path to 2050', Goldman Sachs Global Economics Paper No. 99, October 2003.
8. Russia is slightly diferent in this respect. To a much greater degree than its BRIC counterparts, its economic heft is driven by its massive energy reserves. Recent data show that roughly 30% of its GDP is dependent on the energy sector. Assuming it is unable to make headway in diversifying its economy, Russia's ability to project power in the future will be heavily dependent upon its ability proft from energy exports. See International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2009 (Paris: OECD/IEA, 2009).
9. Andrew Hurrell, 'Hegemony, Liberalism and Global Order: What Space for Would-be Great Powers?', International Afairs, vol. 82, no. 1, Winter 2006, pp. 1-19.
10. Zhang Yunling and Tang Shiping, 'A More Self-Confdent China Will Be a Responsible Power', Straits Times, 2 October 2002.
11. Melo Caballero-Anthony, 'Nontraditional Security and Multilateralism in Asia', in Michael J. Green and Bates Gill (eds), Asia's New Multilateralism: Cooperation, Competition, and the Search for Community (New York: Columbia University Press, 2009), pp. 306-28.
12. C. Raja Mohan, Crossing the Rubicon: The Shaping of India's New Foreign Policy (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2003), p. 64.
13. Steve Cohen, India: Emerging Power (Washington DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2001), pp. 55-7.
14. China and India, for example, have not let their long-running border disputes metastasise into anything more than low-level skirmishes in recent years.
15. One should be careful not to confuse the 'G20' and the 'WTO G20'. The former was established in 1999 as a forum for the fnance ministers of the major advanced and developing nations to stabilise global fnancial markets after the 1997 Asian crisis. By the time of the Pitsburgh Summit of 2009, it had efectively replaced the G7 as the premier body through which heads of state would convene to address pressing global economic and fnancial issues. The later, in contrast, exists as a coalition of developing countries within the WTO that emerged before the 2003 ministerial meeting in Cancun to respond to (and in most cases block) a series of Western proposals.
16. Hurrell, 'Hegemony, Liberalism and Global Order'.
17. Neil McFarlane, 'The "R" in "BRICs"', International Afairs, vol. 82, no. 1, Winter 2006, pp. 41-57.
18. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Afairs, Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision (New York: United Nations, 2009).
19. Tellis et al., Measuring National Power in the Postindustrial Age.
20. David Baldwin, 'Power Analysis and World Politics: New Trends Versus Old Tendencies', World Politics, vol. 31, no. 2, January 1979, pp. 161-94.
21. Daniel Drezner, 'Bad Debts: Assessing China's Financial Infuence in Great Power Politics', International Security, vol. 34, no. 2, Fall 2009, pp. 7-45.
22. This is refective of Robert Kagan's argument in Of Paradise and Power: America and Europe in the New World Order (New York: Vintage, 2004).
23. Center on International Cooperation, Annual Review of Global Peace Operations 2009 (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2009).
24. Richard Gowan and Franziska Brantner, A Global Force for Human Rights: An Audit of European Power at the UN, European Council on Foreign Relations Policy Paper (London: European Council on Foreign Relations, 2008).
25. Richard Steinberg, 'In the Shadow of Law or Power? Consensus- Based Bargaining and Outcomes in the WTO/GATT', International Organization, vol. 56, no. 2, Spring 2002, pp. 339-74.
26. Paul Blustein, Misadventures of the Most Favored Nations: Clashing Egos, Infated Ambitions, and the Great Shambles of the World Trading System (New York: Perseus, 2009), pp. 261-76.
27. Sewell Chan, 'Poorer Nations Get Larger Role in the World Bank', New York Times, 25 April 2010, p. B3.
28. 'The Pitsburg Summit: Key Accomplishments', 24-5 September 2009, available at http://www.pitsburghsummit.gov/resources/129665.htm.
29. Sanjaya Baru, 'India's Stake in the Dollar's Future', Business Standard, 7 October 2009, http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/sanjaya-baru-indias-stake-indollars-future/372461/.
30. Zhou Xiaochuang, 'Reforming the International Monetary System', speech at the People's Bank of China, 23 March 2009, available at http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-03/26/content_11074507.htm.
31. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev did recently show some support for the renminbi to become a converible reserve currency: see William Mauldin, 'Russia Backs Stronger Rivals to Dollar', Wall Street Journal, 19 June 2010, p. A7.
32. Barry Posen 'Command of the Commons: The Military Foundations of U.S. Hegemony', International Security, vol. 28, no. 1, Summer 2003, pp. 5-46.
33. It is notable that these calls have excluded or severely downplayed a role for India.
34. Posen, 'Command of the Commons'.
35. For a good article assessing why the United States chose bilateralism in Asia but multilateralism in Europe see Victor D. Cha, 'Powerplay Origins of the U.S. Security System in Asia', International Security, vol. 34, no. 3, Winter 2009-10, pp. 158-96.
36. Stephen Walt, Origins of Alliances (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1990), especially pp. 17-21 and 27-32.
37. Richard C. Bush and Michael O'Hanlon, A War Like No Other: The Truth About China's Challenge to America (Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, 2007).
38. For a good history of Iran's (and Israel's) atempts to defne a Middle Eastern regional order see Trita Parsi, Treacherous Alliance: The Secret Dealings of Israel, Iran, and the U.S. (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2007).
39. On Turkey see Henri J. Barkey, 'Turkey's Moment of Infection', Survival, vol. 52, no. 3, June-July 2010, pp. 39-50.
40. Jones, Pascual and Stedman, Power and Responsibility, pp. 284-8.
41. Michael T. Klare, Rising Powers, Shrinking Planet: The New Geopolitics of Energy (New York: Henry Holt, 2009), p. 7.
42. C.P. Andrews-Speed, Xuanli Liao and Roland Dannreuther, The Strategic Implications of China's Energy Needs, Adelphi Paper 346 (Oxford: Oxford University Press for the International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2002).
43. Data from US Energy Information Administration, available at http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/China/Oil.html.
44. Klare, Rising Powers, Shrinking Planet, p. 195.
45. David G. Victor and Linda Yueh, 'The New Energy Order', Foreign Afairs, vol. 89, no. 1, January-February 2010, pp. 61-73.
46. Klare, Rising Powers, Shrinking Planet, pp. 203-4.
47. See also John Larkin, 'Iran, India Reach Accord to Work on Gas Deposits', Wall Street Journal, 3 November 2004.