메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 53, Issue 3, 2010, Pages 31-39

A double-branching model applied to long-term forecasting of italian seismicity (mL ≥ 5.0) within the CSEP project

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

DATABASE; EARTHQUAKE CATALOGUE; EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION; EARTHQUAKE TRIGGER; FORECASTING METHOD; MODELING; SEISMICITY;

EID: 78549283136     PISSN: 15935213     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.4401/ag-4762     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (8)

References (37)
  • 1
    • 0016355478 scopus 로고
    • A new look at the statistical model identification
    • Akaike, H. (1974). A new look at the statistical model identification, IEEE Trans. Autom. Control, 19, 716-722.
    • (1974) IEEE Trans. Autom. Control , vol.19 , pp. 716-722
    • Akaike, H.1
  • 5
    • 19544370407 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Boosting methods: Why they can be useful for high-dimensional data
    • (DSC 2003; March 20-22, Vienna, Austria), edited by K. Hornik, F. Leisch and A. Zeileis; available at
    • Bühlmann, P. (2003). Boosting Methods: Why They Can Be Useful for High-Dimensional Data, in: Proceedings of the 3rd International Workshop on Distributed Statistical Computing (DSC 2003; March 20-22, Vienna, Austria), edited by K. Hornik, F. Leisch and A. Zeileis; available at http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2003/of03-214.
    • (2003) Proceedings of The 3rd International Workshop On Distributed Statistical Computing
    • Bühlmann, P.1
  • 6
    • 0003589283 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • NT4.1, un catalogo parametrico di terremoti di area italiana al di sopra della soglia di danno/NT4.1, a parametric catalog of damaging earthquakes in the Italian area
    • CNR-GNDT Milano
    • Camassi, R. and M. Stucchi (1997). NT4.1, un catalogo parametrico di terremoti di area italiana al di sopra della soglia di danno/NT4.1, a parametric catalog of damaging earthquakes in the Italian area, CNR-GNDT Milano, 95 pp.; http://emidius.mi.ingv.it/NT/.
    • (1997) , pp. 95
    • Camassi, R.1    Stucchi, M.2
  • 7
    • 34147100367 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probability map of the next M ≥ 5.5 earthquakes in Italy
    • doi: 10.1029/2004GC000724
    • Cinti, F., L. Faenza, W. Marzocchi and P. Montone (2004). Probability map of the next M ≥ 5.5 earthquakes in Italy, Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., 5, Q11003; doi: 10.1029/2004GC000724.
    • (2004) Geochem Geophys. Geosyst , vol.5
    • Cinti, F.1    Faenza, L.2    Marzocchi, W.3    Montone, P.4
  • 8
    • 0000153123 scopus 로고
    • Engineering seismic risk analysis
    • Cornell, C.A. (1968). Engineering seismic risk analysis, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 58, 1583-1606.
    • (1968) Bull. Seism. Soc. Am , vol.58 , pp. 1583-1606
    • Cornell, C.A.1
  • 9
    • 0003912397 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • CPTI Working Group, Versione 1 (CPTI99, Luglio 1999 ING-GNDT-SGA-SSN, Bologna
    • CPTI Working Group (1999). Catalogo Parametrico dei Terremoti Italiani, versione 1 (CPTI99, luglio 1999), ING-GNDT-SGA-SSN, Bologna, 88 pp.; http://emidius. mi.ingv.it/CPTI99/.
    • (1999) Catalogo Parametrico Dei Terremoti Italiani , pp. 88
  • 10
    • 33745247855 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • CPTI Working Group versione 2004 (CPTI04), INGV (CPTI04), INGV, Bologna
    • CPTI Working Group (2004). Catalogo Parametrico dei Terremoti Italiani, versione 2004 (CPTI04), INGV, Bologna; http://emidius.mi.ingv.it/CPTI04/.
    • (2004) Catalogo Parametrico dei Terremoti Italiani
  • 11
    • 0028259570 scopus 로고
    • A constitutive law for rate of earthquake production and its application to earthquake clustering
    • Dieterich, J.H. (1994). A constitutive law for rate of earthquake production and its application to earthquake clustering, J. Gephys. Res., 99, 2601-2618.
    • (1994) J. Gephys. Res , vol.99 , pp. 2601-2618
    • Dieterich, J.H.1
  • 12
    • 0344035423 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A nonparametric hazard model to characterize the spatiotemporal occurrence of large earthquakes; an application to the Italian catalog
    • Faenza, L., W. Marzocchi and E. Boschi (2003). A nonparametric hazard model to characterize the spatiotemporal occurrence of large earthquakes; an application to the Italian catalog, Geophys. J. Int., 155, 521-531.
    • (2003) Geophys. J. Int , vol.155 , pp. 521-531
    • Faenza, L.1    Marzocchi, W.2    Boschi, E.3
  • 13
    • 0029518123 scopus 로고
    • Mapping seismic hazard in the central and eastern United States
    • Frankel, A. (1995). Mapping seismic hazard in the central and eastern United States, Seismol. Res. Lett., 66, 8-21.
    • (1995) Seismol. Res. Lett , vol.66 , pp. 8-21
    • Frankel, A.1
  • 14
    • 19744366852 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Real-time forecasts of tomorrow's earthquakes in California
    • Gerstenberger, M.C., S. Wiemer, L.M. Jones and P.A. Reasenberg (2005). Real-time forecasts of tomorrow's earthquakes in California, Nature, 435, 328-331.
    • (2005) Nature , vol.435 , pp. 328-331
    • Gerstenberger, M.C.1    Wiemer, S.2    Jones, L.M.3    Reasenberg, P.A.4
  • 15
    • 0031818333 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A systematic test of time-tofailure analysis, Geophys
    • Gross, S. and A. Rundle (1998). A systematic test of time-tofailure analysis, Geophys. J. Int., 133, 57-64.
    • (1998) J. Int , vol.133 , pp. 57-64
    • Gross, S.1    Rundle, A.2
  • 17
    • 33645101327 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Earthquake predictability: Brick by brick
    • Jordan, T.H. (2006). Earthquake predictability: Brick by brick, Seismol. Res. Lett., 77, 3-6.
    • (2006) Seismol. Res. Lett , vol.77 , pp. 3-6
    • Jordan, T.H.1
  • 18
    • 0026051038 scopus 로고
    • Long-term earthquake clustering
    • Kagan, Y.Y. and D.D. Jackson (1991a). Long-term earthquake clustering, Geophys. J. Int., 104, 117-133.
    • (1991) Geophys. J. Int , vol.104 , pp. 117-133
    • Kagan, Y.Y.1    Jackson, D.D.2
  • 19
    • 0026270531 scopus 로고
    • Seismic gap hypothesis, ten years after
    • Kagan, Y.Y. and D.D. Jackson (1991b). Seismic gap hypothesis, ten years after, J. Geophys. Res., 96, 21419-21431.
    • (1991) J. Geophys. Res , vol.96 , pp. 21419-21431
    • Kagan, Y.Y.1    Jackson, D.D.2
  • 20
    • 0028601589 scopus 로고
    • Long-term probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes
    • Kagan, Y.Y. and D.D. Jackson (1994). Long-term probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res., 99, 13685-13700.
    • (1994) J. Geophys. Res , vol.99 , pp. 13685-13700
    • Kagan, Y.Y.1    Jackson, D.D.2
  • 21
    • 0033732689 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes
    • Kagan, Y.Y. and D.D. Jackson (2000). Probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes, Geophys. J. Int., 143, 438-453.
    • (2000) Geophys. J. Int , vol.143 , pp. 438-453
    • Kagan, Y.Y.1    Jackson, D.D.2
  • 22
    • 0033535172 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Testing earthquake prediction algorithms: Statistically significant real-time prediction of the largest earthquakes in the Circum-Pacific, 1992-1997
    • Kossobokov, V.G., V.I. Keilis-Borok, L.L. Romashkova and J.H. Healy (1999). Testing earthquake prediction algorithms: Statistically significant real-time prediction of the largest earthquakes in the Circum-Pacific, 1992-1997, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 111, 187-196.
    • (1999) Phys. Earth Planet. Inter , vol.111 , pp. 187-196
    • Kossobokov, V.G.1    Keilis-Borok, V.I.2    Romashkova, L.L.3    Healy, J.H.4
  • 23
    • 34347216751 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evidence of clustering and non-stationarity in the time distribution of large worldwide earthquakes
    • doi: 10.1029/2006JB004568
    • Lombardi, A.M. and W. Marzocchi (2007). Evidence of clustering and non-stationarity in the time distribution of large worldwide earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res., 112, B02303; doi: 10.1029/2006JB004568.
    • (2007) J. Geophys. Res , vol.112
    • Lombardi, A.M.1    Marzocchi, W.2
  • 24
    • 70349150105 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Double-branching model to forecast the next M > 5.5 earthquakes in Italy
    • (in press)
    • Lombardi, A.M. and W. Marzocchi (2009). Double-branching model to forecast the next M > 5.5 earthquakes in Italy, Tectonophysics (in press).
    • (2009) Tectonophysics
    • Lombardi, A.M.1    Marzocchi, W.2
  • 25
    • 1642304042 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the long-term interaction among earthquakes: Some insight from a model simulation
    • doi: 10.1029/2003JB002390
    • Marzocchi, W., J. Selva, A. Piersanti and E. Boschi (2003). On the long-term interaction among earthquakes: Some insight from a model simulation, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 2538; doi: 10.1029/2003JB002390.
    • (2003) J. Geophys. Res , vol.108 , pp. 2538
    • Marzocchi, W.1    Selva, J.2    Piersanti, A.3    Boschi, E.4
  • 26
    • 55949113091 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A double-branching model for earthquake occurrence
    • doi: 10.1029/2007JB005472
    • Marzocchi, W. and A.M. Lombardi (2008). A double-branching model for earthquake occurrence, J. Geophys. Res., 113, B08317; doi: 10.1029/2007JB005472.
    • (2008) J. Geophys. Res , vol.113
    • Marzocchi, W.1    Lombardi, A.M.2
  • 27
    • 63049120158 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the occurrence of large earthquakes: New insights from a model based on interacting faults embedded in a realistic tectonic setting
    • doi: 10.1029/2008JB005822
    • Marzocchi, W., J. Selva, F.R. Cinti, P. Montone, S. Pierdominici, R. Schivardi and E. Boschi (2009). On the occurrence of large earthquakes: New insights from a model based on interacting faults embedded in a realistic tectonic setting, J. Geophys. Res., 114, B01307; doi: 10.1029/2008JB005822.
    • (2009) J. Geophys. Res , vol.114
    • Marzocchi, W.1    Selva, J.2    Cinti, F.R.3    Montone, P.4    Pierdominici, S.5    Schivardi, R.6    Bosch, E.7
  • 28
    • 33645772505 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Redazione della mappa di pericolosità sismica prevista dall'ordinanza pcm 3274 del 20 marzo 2003
    • MPS Working Group, Rapporto Conclusivo Per Il Dipartimento Della Protezione Civile, INGV Milano-Roma, April 2004 (MPS04, + 5 appendices
    • MPS Working Group (2004). Redazione della mappa di pericolosità sismica prevista dall'Ordinanza PCM 3274 del 20 marzo 2003, Rapporto conclusivo per il Dipartimento della Protezione Civile, INGV, Milano-Roma, April 2004 (MPS04), 65 pp. + 5 appendices; http://zonesismiche.mi.ingv.it.
    • (2004) , pp. 65
  • 29
    • 0001663614 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Space-time point-process models for earthquake occurrences
    • Ogata, Y. (1998). Space-time point-process models for earthquake occurrences, Ann. Inst. Statist. Math., 50, 379-402.
    • (1998) Ann. Inst. Statist. Math , vol.50 , pp. 379-402
    • Ogata, Y.1
  • 30
    • 0347506347 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Long-range earthquake forecasting with every earthquake a precursor according to scale
    • Rhoades, D.A. and F.F. Evison (2004). Long-range earthquake forecasting with every earthquake a precursor according to scale, Pageoph, 161, 47-72.
    • (2004) Pageoph , vol.161 , pp. 47-72
    • Rhoades, D.A.1    Evison, F.F.2
  • 31
    • 78549253099 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • the CPTI Working Group, versione 2008 (CPTI08), INGV, Milano-Pavia
    • Rovida, A. and the CPTI Working Group (2008). Catalogo Parametrico dei Terremoti Italiani, 1901-2006, versione 2008 (CPTI08), INGV, Milano-Pavia; http://www.cseptesting. org/regions/italy.
    • (2008) Catalogo Parametrico Dei Terremoti Italiani, 1901-2006
    • Rovida, A.1
  • 32
    • 0033540090 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The role of stress transfer in earthquake occurrence
    • Stein, R.S. (1999). The role of stress transfer in earthquake occurrence, Nature, 402, 605-609.
    • (1999) Nature , vol.402 , pp. 605-609
    • Stein, R.S.1
  • 33
    • 7744241938 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Assesing the completeness of Italian historical earthquake data
    • Stucchi, M., P. Albini, C. Mirto and A. Rebez (2004). Assesing the completeness of Italian historical earthquake data, Annals of Geophysics, 47 (2-3), 659-673.
    • (2004) Annals of Geophysics , vol.47 , Issue.2-3 , pp. 659-673
    • Stucchi, M.1    Albini, P.2    Mirto, C.3    Rebez, A.4
  • 36
    • 0035998813 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Stochastic declustering of space-time earthquake occurrence
    • Zhuang, J., Y. Ogata and D. Vere-Jones (2002). Stochastic declustering of space-time earthquake occurrence, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 97, 369-380.
    • (2002) J. Am. Stat. Assoc , vol.97 , pp. 369-380
    • Zhuang, J.1    Ogata, Y.2    Vere-Jones, D.3
  • 37
    • 0033754570 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Minimum magnitude of complete reporting in earthquake catalogs: Examples from Alaska, the western United States and Japan
    • Wiemer, S. and M. Wyss (2000). Minimum magnitude of complete reporting in earthquake catalogs: examples from Alaska, the western United States and Japan, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 90, 859-869.
    • (2000) Bull. Seism. Soc. Am , vol.90 , pp. 859-869
    • Wiemer, S.1    Wyss, M.2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.