Does the choice of climate baseline matter in ecological niche modelling?

Ecological Modelling

Volumn 221, Issue 19, 2010, Pages 2280-2286

  Roubicek, A J ^a   VanDerWal, J ^b   Beaumont, L J ^a   Pitman, A J ^c   Wilson, P ^a   Hughes, L ^a  

^a MACQUARIE UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

^b JAMES COOK UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

^c UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES   (Australia)

Author keywords

Climate baseline; Ecological niche model; Hellinger distance; I statistic; Model projections

Indexed keywords

20TH CENTURY; ANNUAL PLANTS; CLIMATE BASELINE; CLIMATE CONDITION; CLIMATE DATA; CLIMATE SCENARIOS; CLIMATE VARIABILITY; CONSERVATION PLANNING; DISTRIBUTION MODELS; ECOLOGICAL NICHE; ECOLOGICAL NICHE MODELLING; ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS; HELLINGER DISTANCE; I-STATISTIC; MODEL OUTPUTS; MULTIPLE APPLICATIONS; TIME RANGE; TIME-PERIODS; TIME-SCALES;

ANIMALS; CLIMATOLOGY; CONSERVATION; ECOLOGY;

CLIMATE MODELS;

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE CONDITIONS; CONSERVATION PLANNING; ECOLOGICAL MODELING; NICHE; SPECIES OCCURRENCE; TWENTIETH CENTURY;

ANIMALIA; HEXAPODA;

EID: 77955775430     PISSN: 03043800     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.06.021     Document Type: Article

References (27)

1. Araujo M.B., Guisan A. Five (or so) challenges for species distribution modelling. J. Biogeogr. 2006, 33:1677-1688.
2. Araujo M.B., Whittaker R.J., Ladle R.J., Erhard M. Reducing uncertainty in projections of extinction risk from climate change. Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 2005, 14:529-538.
3. Austin M.P., Belbin L., Meyers J.A., Doherty M.D., Luoto M. Evaluation of statistical models used for predicting plant species distributions: role of artificial data and theory. Ecol. Model. 2006, 199:197-216.
4. Barry S., Elith J. Error and uncertainty in habitat models. J. Appl. Ecol. 2006, 43:413-423.
5. Bauer D.F. Constructing confidence sets using rank statistics. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 1972, 67:687-690.
6. Beaumont L.J., Gallagher R.V., Downey P.O., Thuiller W., Leishman M.R., Hughes L. Modelling the impact of Hieracium spp. on protected areas in Australia under future climates. Ecography 2009, 32:757-764.
7. Beaumont L.J., Hughes L., Pitman A.J. Why is the choice of future climate scenarios for species distribution modelling important?. Ecol. Lett. 2008, 11:1135-1146.
8. Dudik, M., Phillips, S.J., Schapire, R.E., 2004. Performance guarantees for regularized maximum entropy density estimation. In: ShaweTaylor, J., Singer, Y. (Eds.), Learning Theory, Proceedings. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, pp. 472-486.
9. Elith J., Graham C.H., Anderson R.P., Dudik M., Ferrier S., Guisan A., Hijmans R.J., Huettmann F., Leathwick J.R., Lehmann A., Li J., Lohmann L.G., Loiselle B.A., Manion G., Moritz C., Nakamura M., Nakazawa Y., Overton J.M., Peterson A.T., Phillips S.J., Richardson K., Scachetti-Pereira R., Schapire R.E., Soberon J., Williams S., Wisz M.S., Zimmermann N.E. Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data. Ecography 2006, 29:129-151.
10. Fielding A.H., Bell J.F. A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models. Environ. Conserv. 1997, 24:38-49.
11. Guisan A., Lehmann A., Ferrier S., Austin M., Overton J.M.C., Aspinall R., Hastie T. Making better biogeographical predictions of species' distributions. J. Appl. Ecol. 2006, 43:386-392.
12. Hijmans R.J., Guarino L., Cruz M., Rojas E. Computer tools for spatial analysis of plant genetic resources data: 1. DIVA-GIS. Plant Genet. Resour. Newsl. 2001, 127:15-19.
13. Hijmans R.J., Cameron S.E., Parra J.L., Jones P.G., Jarvis A. Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. Int. J. Climatol. 2005, 25:1965-1978.
14. Hijmans R.J., Graham C.H. The ability of climate envelope models to predict the effect of climate change on species distributions. Global Change Biol. 2006, 12:2272-2281.
15. IPCC, 2007. Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. In: Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K.B., Tignor, M., Miller, H.L. (Eds.). Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996pp.
16. Hole D.G., Wllis S.G., Pain D.J., Fihpool L.D., Butchart S.H.M., Collinham Y.C., Rahbek C., Huntley B. Projected impacts of climate change on a continent-wide protected area network. Ecol. Lett. 2009, 12:420-431.
17. Legendre, P., Legendre, L., 1998. Numerical Ecology. Elsevier, Amsterdam, 853p.
18. Murphy B.F., Timbal B. A review of recent climate variability and climate change in southeastern Australia. Int. J. Climatol. 2008, 28:859-879.
19. Pearson R.G., Thuiller W., Araujo M.B., Martinez-Meyer E., Brotons L., McClean C., Miles L., Segurado P., Dawson T.P., Lees D.C. Model-based uncertainty in species range prediction. J. Biogeogr. 2006, 33:1704-1711.
20. Phillips S.J., Dudik M. Modeling of species distributions with Maxent: new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation. Ecography 2008, 31:161-175.
21. Phillips S.J., Anderson R.P., Schapire R.E. Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecol. Model. 2006, 190:231-259.
22. Reese G.C., Wilson K.R., Hoeting J.A., Flather C.H. Factors affecting species distribution predictions: a simulation modeling experiment. Ecol. Appl. 2005, 15:554-564.
23. Trivedi M.R., Morecroft M.D., Berry P.M., Dawson T.P. Potential effects of climate change on plant communities in three montane nature reserves in Scotland, U.K. Biol. Conserv. 2008, 141:1665-1675.
24. Ummenhofer C.C., England M.H., McIntosh P.C., Meyers G.A., Pook M.J., Risbey J.S., Gupta A.S., Taschetto A.S. What causes southeast Australia's worst droughts?. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2009, 36:5.
25. Virkkala R., Heikkinen R.K., Leikola N., Luoto M. Projected large scale range reductions of northern-boreal land bird species due to climate change. Biol. Conserv. 2008, 141:1343-1353.
26. Warren D.L., Glor R.E., Turelli M. Environmental niche equivalency versus conservatism: quatitative approaches to niche evolution. Evolution 2008, 62:2868-2883.
27. Warren M.S., Hill J.K., Thomas J.A., Asher J., Fox R., Huntley B., Roy D.B., Telfer M.G., Jeffcoate S., Harding P., Jeffcoate G., Willis S.G., Greatorex-Davies J.N., Moss D., Thomas C.D. Rapid responses of British butterflies to opposing forces of climate and habitat change. Nature 2001, 414:65-69.