Potential effects of climate change on plant communities in three montane nature reserves in Scotland, UK

Biological Conservation

Volumn 141, Issue 6, 2008, Pages 1665-1675

  Trivedi, Mandar R ^a,b   Morecroft, Michael D ^b   Berry, Pamela M ^a   Dawson, Terence P ^c  

^a UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD   (United Kingdom)

^b CENTRE FOR ECOLOGY AND HYDROLOGY   (United Kingdom)

^c UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHAMPTON   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Arctic alpine plants; Classification tree; Grampian highlands; Mountains; Natura 2000; Special area of conservation; Species distribution models; Topography

Indexed keywords

ALPINE ENVIRONMENT; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; ECOLOGICAL MODELING; MOUNTAIN ENVIRONMENT; NATURE RESERVE; PLANT COMMUNITY; SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION; TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECT;

ARCTIC; EURASIA; EUROPE; HIGHLANDS; SCOTLAND; UNITED KINGDOM; WESTERN EUROPE;

BRYOPHYTA; CAREX; RACOMITRIUM;

EID: 44949153336     PISSN: 00063207     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.biocon.2008.04.008     Document Type: Article

References (103)

1. Akaike, H., 1973. Information theory as an extension of the maximum likelihood principle. In: Petrov, B.N., Csaksi, F. (Eds.), 2nd International Symposium on Information Theory. Akademiai Kiado Budapest, Hungary, pp. 267-281.
2. Anon, 2006. Special Areas of Conservation.
3. Araújo M.B., and Guisan A. Five (or so) challenges for species distribution modelling. Journal of Biogeography 33 (2006) 1677-1688
4. Araújo M.B., and New M. Ensemble forecasting of species distributions. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 22 (2007) 42-47
5. Araújo M.B., Cabeza M., Thuiller W., Hannah L., and Williams P.H. Would climate change drive species out of reserves? An assessment of existing reserve-selection methods. Global Change Biology 10 (2004) 1618-1626
6. Araújo M.B., Thuiller W., Williams P.H., and Reginster I. Downscaling European species atlas distributions to a finer resolution: implications for conservation planning. Global Ecology and Biogeography 14 (2005) 17-30
7. Averis, A., Averis, B., Birks, J., Horsfield, D., Thompson, D., Yeo, M., 2004. An Illustrated Guide to British Upland Vegetation.
8. Bakkenes M., Alkemade J.R.M., Ihle F., Leemans R., and Latour J.B. Assessing effects of forecasted climate change on the diversity and distribution of European higher plants for 2050. Global Change Biology 8 (2002) 390-407
9. Barry R.G. Mountain climatology and past and potential future climatic changes in mountain regions - a review. Mountain Research and Development 12 (1992) 71-86
10. Berry P.M., Dawson T.P., Harrison P.A., and Pearson R.G. Modelling potential impacts of climate change on the bioclimatic envelope of species in Britain and Ireland. Global Ecology and Biogeography 11 (2002) 453-462
11. Berry, P.M., Harrison, P.A., Dawson, T.P., Walmsley, C.A., 2005. Monarch 2: modelling natural resource responses to climate change. United Kingdom Climate Impacts Programme, Oxford.
12. Bonn A., and Schröder B. Habitat models and their transfer for single and multi-species groups: a case study of carabids in an alluvial forest. Ecography 24 (2001) 483-496
13. Botkin D.B., Saxe H., Araujo M.B., Betts R., Bradshaw R.H.W., Cedhagen T., Chesson P., Dawson T.P., Etterson J.R., Faith D.P., Ferrier S., Guisan A., Hansen A.S., Hilbert D.W., Loehle C., Margules C., New M., Sobel M.J., and Stockwell D.R.B. Forecasting the effects of global warming on biodiversity. Bioscience 57 (2007) 227-236
14. Brooker R.W. Plant-plant interactions and environmental change. New Phytologist 171 (2006) 271-284
15. Brooker R., Young J.C., and Watt A.D. Climate change and biodiversity: impacts and policy development challenges - a European case study. International Journal of Biodiversity Science and Management 3 (2007) 12-30
16. Bruelheide H. Translocation of a montane meadow to simulate the potential impact of climate change. Applied Vegetation Science 6 (2003) 23-34
17. Cohen J. A coefficient of agreement for nominal scales. Educational and Psychological Measurement 20 (1960) 37-46
18. Cornish, C., Dayton, N., 2005. NVC survey of Beinn Heasgarnich SSSI and cSAC (Stirling). Quadrat Scotland, Argyll, UK, pp. 131.
19. Council of the European Communities, 1992. Council Directive 92/43/EEC of 21 May 1992 on the conservation of natural habitats and of wild fauna and flora. In: Official Journal of the European Communities, Series L, 206, pp. 7-50.
20. Dayton, N., Cornish, C., 2005. NVC survey of Meall na Samnha SSSI and cSAC (Stirling). Quadrat Scotland, Argyll, UK, 137 pp.
21. De'ath G., and Fabricius K.E. Classification and regression trees: a powerful yet simple technique for ecological data analysis. Ecology 81 (2000) 3178-3192
22. De Bello F., Leps J., and Sebastia M.T. Predictive value of plant traits to grazing along a climatic gradient in the Mediterranean. Journal of Applied Ecology 42 (2005) 824-833
23. Dirnböck T., Dullinger S., and Grabherr G. A regional impact assessment of climate and land-use change on alpine vegetation. Journal of Biogeography 30 (2003) 401-417
24. Dockerty T., Lovett A., and Watkinson A. Climate change and nature reserves: examining the potential impacts, with examples from Great Britain. Global Environmental Change 13 (2003) 125-135
25. Duckworth J.C., Bunce R.G.H., and Malloch A.J.C. Modelling the potential effects of climate change on calcareous grasslands in Atlantic Europe. Journal of Biogeography 27 (2000) 347-358
26. Dullinger S., Dirnbock T., and Grabherr G. Modelling climate change-driven treeline shifts: relative effects of temperature increase, dispersal and invasibility. Journal of Ecology 92 (2004) 241-252
27. Ferrier S., and Guisan A. Spatial modelling of biodiversity at the community level. Journal of Applied Ecology 43 (2006) 393-404
28. Ferrier, S., Watson, G., 1997. An evaluation of the effectiveness of environmental surrogates and modelling techniques in predicting the distribution of biological diversity. In: Environment Australia, Canberra. .
29. Ferris, R., 2006. Research priorities: climate change and adaptation. 35 pp. The UK Biodiversity Research Advisory Group. .
30. Gottfried M., Pauli H., Reiter K., and Grabherr G. A fine-scaled predictive model for changes in species distribution patterns of high mountain plants induced by climate warming. Global Change Biology 5 (1999) 241-251
31. Grabherr G. Climate effects on mountain plants. Nature 369 (1994) 448
32. Guisan A., and Theurillat J.-P. Equilibrium modeling of alpine plant distribution: how far can we go?. Phytocoenologia 30 (2000) 353-384
33. Guisan A., and Theurillat J.-P. Appropriate monitoring networks are required for testing model-based scenarios of climate change impact on mountain plant distribution. In: Huber U.M., Bugmann H., and Reasoner M.A. (Eds). Global Change and Mountain Regions: An Overview of Current Knowledge (2005), Springer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands 467-476
34. Guisan A., and Zimmermann N.E. Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology. Ecological Modelling 135 (2000) 147-186
35. Guisan A., Theurillat J.-P., and Kienast F. Predicting the potential distribution of plant species in an alpine environment. Journal of Vegetation Science 9 (1998) 65-74
36. Guisan A., Lehmann A., Ferrier S., Austin M., Overton J.M.C., Aspinall R., and Hastie T. Making better biogeographical predictions of species' distributions. Journal of Applied Ecology 43 (2006) 386-392
37. Hampe A. Bioclimate envelope models: what they detect and what they hide. Global Ecology and Biogeography 13 (2004) 469-471
38. Harding R.J. The variation of the altitudinal gradient of temperature within the British Isles. Geografiska Annaler 60 (1978) 43-49
39. Hastie T., and Tibshirani R. Generalized Additive Models (1990), Chapman and Hall, London
40. Hewitt G.M. Post-glacial re-colonization of European biota. Biological Journal of the Linnean Society 68 (1999) 87-112
41. Hill M.O. Decorana - a Fortran program for detrended correspondence analysis and reciprocal averaging. Department of Ecology and Systematics (1979), Cornell University, Ithaca
42. Hill M.O., Preston C.D., and Smith A.J.E. Atlas of the Bryophytes of Britain and Ireland (1992), Harley Books, Colchester, UK
43. Hosmer D.W., and Lemeshow S. Applied Logistic Regression (1989), Wiley, New York
44. Hulme, M., Jenkins, G.J., Lu, X., Turnpenny, J.R., Mitchell, T.D., Jones, R.G., Lowe, J., Murphy, J.M., Hassell, D., Boorman, P., Mcdonald, R., Hill, S., 2002. Climate change scenarios for the United Kingdom: the UKCIP02 scientific report. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK.
45. Huntley B. How plants respond to climate change - migration rates, individualism and the consequences for plant-communities. Annals of Botany 67 (1991) 15-22
46. IPCC, 2007. Summary for Policymakers Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. In: Solomon, S.D., Qin, M., Manning, Z., Chen, M., Marquis, K.B., Averyt, M.T., Miller, H.L. (Eds.), Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, p. 18.
47. Jackson, D.L., McLeod, C.R., 2000. Handbook on the UK status of EC Habitats Directive interest features: provisional data on the UK distribution and extent of Annex I habitats and the UK distribution and population size of Annex II species, Revised 2002 edition. JNCC Report 312.
48. Jiménez-Valverde A., and Lobo J.M. The ghost of unbalanced species distribution data in geographical model predictions. Diversity and Distributions 12 (2006) 521-524
49. JNCC, 2006. Common Standards Monitoring Guidance for Upland Habitats. In: Joint Nature Conservation Committee, Peterborough, Version October 2006, pp. 2237. ISSN 1743-8160. .
50. Jongman R.H.G., Ter Braak C.J.F., and Van Tongeren O.F.R. Data analysis in community and landscape ecology. 2nd ed. (1995), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
51. Kazakis G., Ghosn D., Vogiatzakis I., and Papanastasis V. Vascular plant diversity and climate change in the alpine zone of the Lefka Ori, Crete. Biodiversity and Conservation (2007) 10.1007/s10531-006-9021-1
52. Kirkby M. Hydrograph modelling strategies. In: Peel R., Chisholm M., and Haggett P. (Eds). Processes in Physical and Human Geography (1975), Heinemann, London 69-90
53. Klanderud K., and Birks H.J.B. Recent increases in species richness and shifts in altitudinal distributions of Norwegian mountain plants. Holocene 13 (2003) 1-6
54. Körner C. Alpine plant life: functional plant ecology of high mountain ecosystems (1999), Springer-Verlag, Berlin
55. Kumar L., Skidmore A.K., and Knowles E. Modelling topographic variation in solar radiation in a GIS environment. International Journal of Geographical Information Science 11 (1997) 475-497
56. Legendre P., and Gallagher E.D. Ecologically meaningful transformations for ordination of species data. Oecologia 129 (2001) 271-280
57. Liu C.R., Berry P.M., Dawson T.P., and Pearson R.G. Selecting thresholds of occurrence in the prediction of species distributions. Ecography 28 (2005) 385-393
58. Löffler J. The influence of micro-climate, snow cover, and soil moisture on ecosystem functioning in high mountains. Journal of Geographical Sciences 17 (2007) 3-19
59. Louault F., Pillar V.D., Aufrere J., Garnier E., and Soussana J.F. Plant traits and functional types in response to reduced disturbance in a semi-natural grassland. Journal of Vegetation Science 16 (2005) 151-160
60. Lusby P., and Wright J.P. Scottish Wild Plants. 2nd ed. (2001), Mercat Press, Edinburgh
61. Macaulay Institute for Soil Research, 1982. Soil Survey of Scotland, Sheet 47: Crieff. In: Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen, UK.
62. Macaulay Institute for Soil Research, 1985. Soil Survey of Scotland, Sheet 51: Loch Tay. In: Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen, UK.
63. Manel S., Williams H.C., and Ormerod S.J. Evaluating presence-absence models in ecology: the need to account for prevalence. Journal of Applied Ecology 38 (2001) 921-931
64. Manley G. Climate and the British Scene (1952), Collins, London
65. Manly B.F.J. Randomization, bootstrap and Monte Carlo. 2nd ed. (1997), Chapman and Hall, London
66. McCune B., and Grace J.B. Analysis of ecological communities (2002), MjM Software Design, Gleneden Beach, OR
67. McEvoy, D., Handley, J.F., Cavan, G., Aylen, J., Lindley, S., McMorrow, J., Glynn, S., 2006. Climate change and the visitor economy: the challenges and opportunities for England's northwest. In: Sustainability Northwest (Manchester) and UKCIP (Oxford), UK.
68. McPherson J.M., Jetz W., and Rogers D.J. The effects of species' range sizes on the accuracy of distribution models: ecological phenomenon or statistical artefact?. Journal of Applied Ecology 41 (2004) 811-823
69. Mitchell, R.J., Morecroft, M.D., Acreman, M., Crick, H.Q.P., Frost, M., Harley, M., MacLean, I.M.D., Mountford, O., Piper, J., Parr, T.W., Pontier, H., Rehfisch, M.M., Ross, L.C., Smithers, R.J., Stott, A., Walmsley, C.A., Watt, A.D., Watts, O., Wilson, E., 2007. England biodiversity strategy - towards adaptation to climate change. Centre for Ecology and Hydrology. Final report to Defra for contract CRO327. p. 177.
70. Moore I.D., Norton T.W., and Williams J.E. Modelling environmental heterogeneity in forested landscapes. Journal of Hydrology 150 (1993) 717-747
71. Morecroft, M.D., Sier, A.R.J., Elston, D.A., Nevison, I.M., Hall, J.R., Rennie, S.C., Parr, T.W., Crick, H.Q.P., 2006. Targeted Monitoring of Air Pollution and Climate Change Impacts on Biodiversity. Final report to Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, Countryside Council for Wales and English Nature (CR0322). p. 78.
72. Nagy L. The high mountain vegetation of Scotland. In: Nagy L., Grabherr G., Körner C., and Thompson D.B.A. (Eds). Alpine Biodiversity in Europe (2003), Springer-Verlag, Berlin 39-46
73. Nagy L., Grabherr G., Körner C., and Thompson D.B.A. Alpine biodiversity in space and time. In: Nagy L., Grabherr G., Körner C., and Thompson D.B.A. (Eds). Alpine Biodiversity in Europe (2003), Springer-Verlag, Berlin 453-464
74. Nakicenovic N., and Swart R. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (2000), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK
75. Normand S., Svenning J.C., and Skov F. National and European perspectives on climate change sensitivity of the habitats directive characteristic plant species. Journal for Nature Conservation 15 (2007) 41-53
76. Parmesan C. Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change. Annual Review of Ecology Evolution and Systematics 37 (2006) 637-669
77. Pauli H., Gottfried M., Reiter K., Klettner C., and Grabherr G. Signals of range expansions and contractions of vascular plants in the high Alps: observations (1994-2004) at the GLORIA* master site Schrankogel, Tyrol, Austria. Global Change Biology 13 (2007) 147-156
78. Pearson R.G., and Dawson T.P. Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful?. Global Ecology and Biogeography 12 (2003) 361-371
79. Pearson R.G., and Dawson T.P. Bioclimate envelope models: what they detect and what they hide. Global Ecology and Biogeography 13 (2004) 471-473
80. Peñuelas J., and Boada M. A global change-induced biome shift in the Montseny mountains (NE Spain). Global Change Biology 9 (2003) 131-140
81. Pepin N.C. The use of GCM scenario output to model effects of future climatic change on the thermal climate of marginal maritime uplands. Geografiska Annaler Series a-Physical Geography 77A (1995) 167-185
82. Peppler-Lisbach C., and Schröder B. Predicting the species composition of Nardus stricta communities by logistic regression modelling. Journal of Vegetation Science 15 (2004) 623-634
83. Peres-Neto P., and Jackson D. How well do multivariate data sets match? The advantages of a Procrustean superimposition approach over the Mantel test. Oecologia 129 (2001) 169-178
84. Perry M., and Hollis D. The generation of monthly gridded datasets for a range of climatic variables over the UK. International Journal of Climatology 25 (2005) 1041-1054
85. Peters R.L. Conservation of biological diversity in the face of climate change. In: Peters R.L., and Lovejoy T.E. (Eds). Global warming and biological diversity (1992), Yale University Press, Newhaven and London 15-30
86. Pierce S., Luzzaro A., Caccianiga M., Ceriani R.M., and Cerabolini B. Disturbance is the principal α-scale filter determining niche differentiation, coexistence and biodiversity in an alpine community. Journal of Ecology 95 (2007) 698-706
87. Poore M.D. The alpine flora and Ben Lawers. In: Mardon D.K. (Ed). Ben Lawers (1993), National Trust for Scotland, Edinburgh
88. Preston C.D., Pearman D.A., and Dines T.D. New Atlas of the British and Irish Flora (2002), Oxford University Press
89. Price, M.F., Neville, G.R., 2003. Designing strategies to increase the resilience of alpine/montane systems to climate change. In: Hansen, L.J., Biringer, J.L., Hoffman, J.R. (Eds.), Buying Time: A User's Manual for Building Resistance and Resilience to Climate Change in Natural Systems, WWF. .
90. R Development Core Team, 2005. R: a language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria.
91. Rodwell J.S. NVC Users Handbook (2006), Joint Nature Conservation Committee, Peterborough
92. Sætersdal M., Birks H.J.B., and Peglar S.M. Predicting changes in Fennoscandian vascular-plant species richness as a result of future climatic change. Journal of Biogeography 25 (1998) 111-122
93. Smith A.J.E. The Moss flora of Britain and Ireland. 2nd ed. (2004), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
94. Smith S., Gray D., and Booth A.B. Ben Lawers SSSI NVC Survey 2003 (2003), Central Environmental Surveys, Dunblane, Perthshire
95. Stace C.A. New Flora of the British Isles. 2nd ed. (1997), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
96. Swets J.A. Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems. Science 240 (1988) 1285-1293
97. Thomas C.D., Cameron A., Green R.E., Bakkenes M., Beaumont L.J., Collingham Y.C., Erasmus B.F.N., De Siqueira M.F., Grainger A., Hannah L., Hughes L., Huntley B., Van Jaarsveld A.S., Midgley G.F., Miles L., Ortega-Huerta M.A., Peterson A.T., Phillips O.L., and Williams S.E. Extinction risk from climate change. Nature 427 (2004) 145-148
98. Thuiller W., Lavorel S., Araújo M.B., Sykes M.T., and Prentice I.C. Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 102 (2005) 8245-8250
99. Walther G.R., Beissner S., and Burga C.A. Trends in the upward shift of alpine plants. Journal of Vegetation Science 16 (2005) 541-548
100. Wilson R.J., Gutierrez D., Gutierrez J., Martinez D., Agudo R., and Monserrat V.J. Changes to the elevational limits and extent of species ranges associated with climate change. Ecology Letters 8 (2005) 1138-1146
101. Wintle B.A., Elith J., and Potts J.M. Fauna habitat modelling and mapping: A review and case study in the Lower Hunter Central Coast region of NSW. Austral Ecology 30 (2005) 719-738
102. Zimmermann, N., 2001. Tools for analyzing, summarizing, and mapping of biophysical variables. (Accessed on 1.04.2005).
103. Zimmermann N.E., and Kienast F. Predictive mapping of alpine grasslands in Switzerland: species versus community approach. Journal of Vegetation Science 10 (1999) 469-482