Predictability of Northwest Pacific climate during summer and the role of the tropical Indian Ocean

Climate Dynamics

Volumn 36, Issue 3, 2011, Pages 607-621

  Chowdary, Jasti Sriranga ^a   Xie, Shang Ping ^a,b   Luo, Jing Jia ^c   Hafner, Jan ^a   Behera, Swadhin ^c   Masumoto, Yukio ^c,d   Yamagata, Toshio ^c,d  

^a UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII   (United States)

^c JAPAN AGENCY FOR MARINE EARTH SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY   (Japan)

^d UNIVERSITY OF TOKYO   (Japan)

Author keywords

Atmospheric Kelvin wave; ENSO; Northwest Pacific climate; Seasonal forecast; Tropical Indian Ocean

Indexed keywords

ANTICYCLONE; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE PREDICTION; CLIMATOLOGY; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; KELVIN WAVE; MOISTURE TRANSFER; SEA LEVEL PRESSURE; WEATHER FORECASTING; ZONAL WIND;

INDIAN OCEAN; INDIAN OCEAN (TROPICAL);

EID: 77955505978     PISSN: 09307575     EISSN: 14320894     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-009-0686-5     Document Type: Article

References (43)

1. Annamalai H, Liu P, Xie S-P (2005) Southwest Indian Ocean SST variability: its local effect and remote influence on Asian monsoons. J Clim 18: 4150-4167.
2. Behera SK, Luo J-J, Masson S, Delecluse P, Gualdi S, Navarra A, Yamagata T (2005) Paramount impact of the Indian Ocean dipole on the East African short rain: a CGCM study. J Clim 18: 4514-4530.
3. Chowdary JS, Gnanaseelan C, Xie S-P (2009) Westward propagation of barrier layer formation in the 2006-07 Rossby wave event over the tropical southwest Indian Ocean. Geophys Res Lett 36: L04607. doi: 10. 1029/2008GL036642.
4. Du Y, Xie S-P, Huang G, Hu K-M (2009) Role of air-sea interaction in the long persistence of El Niño-induced North Indian Ocean warming. J Clim 22: 2023-2038.
5. Gill AE (1980) Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulation. Q J R Meteor Soc 106: 447-462.
6. Gualdi S, Navarra A, Guilyardi E, Delecluse P (2003) Assessment of the tropical Indo-Pacific climate in the SINTEX CGCM. Ann Geophys 46: 1-26.
7. Harrison D, Larkin NK (1996) The COADS sea level pressure signal: a near-global El Niño composite and time series view, 1946-1993. J Clim 9: 3025-3055.
8. Huang B, Kinter JL III (2002) Interannual variability in the tropical Indian Ocean. J Geophys Res 107: 3199. doi: 10. 1029/2001JC001278.
9. Huang R, Chen W, Yang B, Zhang R (2004) Recent advances in studies of the interaction between the East Asian winter and summer monsoons and ENSO cycle. Adv Atmos Sci 21: 407-424.
10. Izumo T, Montégut CdB, Luo J-J, Behera SK, Masson S, Yamagata T (2008) The role of the western Arabian Sea upwelling in Indian monsoon rainfall variability. J Clim 21: 5603-5623.
11. Kanamitsu M, Ebisuzaki W, Woollen J, Yang S-K, Hnilo JJ, Fiorino M, Potter GL (2002) NCEP/DOE AMIP-II reanalysis (R-2). Bull Amer Meteor Soc 83: 1631-1643.
12. Kang IS, Jin K et al (2002) Intercomparison of atmospheric GCM simulated anomalies associated with the 1997/98 El Niño. J Clim 15: 2791-2805.
13. Kawamura R (1998) A possible mechanism of the Asian summer-ENSO coupling. J Meteor Soc Japan 76: 1009-1027.
14. Klein SA, Soden BJ, Lau NC (1999) Remote sea surface temperature variations during ENSO: evidence for a tropical atmospheric bridge. J Clim 12: 917-932.
15. Kug J-S, Li T, An S-I, Kang I-S, Luo J-J, Masson S, Yamagata T (2006) Role of the ENSO-Indian Ocean coupling on ENSO variability in a coupled GCM. Geophys Res Lett 33: L09710. doi: 10. 1029/2005GL024916.
16. Lau NC, Ploshay JJ (2009) Simulation of synoptic- and subsynoptic-scale phenomena associated with the East Asian summer monsoon using a high-resolution GCM. Mon Weather Rev 137: 137-160.
17. Lee E-J, Jhun J-G, Park C-K (2005) Remote connection of the northeast Asian summer rainfall variation revealed by a newly defined monsoon index. J Clim 18: 4381-4393.
18. Luo J-J, Masson S, Roeckner E, Madec M, Yamagata T (2005a) Reducing climatology bias in an ocean-atmosphere CGCM with improved coupling physics. J Clim 18: 2344-2360.
19. Luo J-J, Masson S, Behera SK, Shingu S, Yamagata T (2005b) Seasonal climate predictability in a coupled OAGCM using a different approach for ensemble forecasts. J Clim 18: 4474-4497.
20. Luo J-J, Masson S, Behera SK, Yamagata T (2008a) Extended ENSO predictions using a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J Clim 21: 84-93.
21. Luo J-J, Behera SK, Masumoto Y, Sakuma H, Yamagata T (2008b) Successful prediction of the consecutive IOD in 2006 and 2007. Geophys Res Lett 35: L14S02. doi: 10. 1029/2007GL032793.
22. Luo J-J, Zhang R, Behera SK, Masumoto Y, Jin FF, Lukas R, Yamagata T (2009) Interaction between El Niño and extreme Indian Ocean dipole. J Clim (in press).
23. Madec G, Delecluse P, Imbard M, Levy C (1998) OPA version 8. 1 ocean general circulation model reference manual. LODYC/IPSL Tech Note 11 pp 91.
24. Masson S et al (2005) Impact of barrier layer on winter-spring variability of the southeastern Arabian Sea. Geophys Res Lett 32: L07703. doi: 10. 1029/2004GL021980.
25. Matsuno T (1966) Quasi-geostrophic motions in the equatorial area. J Meteor Soc Japan 44: 25-43.
26. McPhaden MJ (1999) Genesis and evolution of the 1997-98 El Niño. Science 283: 950-954.
27. Nitta T (1987) Convective activities in the tropical western Pacific and their impact on the Northern Hemisphere summer circulation. J Meteor Soc Japan 65: 373-390.
28. Park H-S, Chiang JCH, Lintner BR, Zhang GJ (2009) The delayed effect of major El Niño events on Indian monsoon rainfall. J Clim (in revision).
29. Reynolds RW, Rayner NA, Smith TM, Stokes DC, Wang W (2002) An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate. J Clim 15: 1609-1625.
30. Roeckner E et al (1996) The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM-4: model description and simulation of present-day climate. Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie Rep 218: 90.
31. Schott FA, Xie S-P, McCreary JP (2009) Indian Ocean circulation and climate variability. Rev Geophys 47: RG1002. doi: 10. 1029/2007RG000245.
32. Shen X, Kimoto M, Sumi A, Numaguti A, Matsumoto J (2001) Simulation of the 1998 East Asian summer monsoon by the CCSR/NIES AGCM. J Meteor Soc Japan 79: 741-757.
33. Tozuka T, Luo J-J, Masson S, Behera SK, Yamagata T (2005) Annual ENSO simulated in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Dyn Atmos Oceans 39: 41-60.
34. Wang B, Wu R, Fu X (2000) Pacific-east Asian teleconnection: how does ENSO affect East Asian climate? J Clim 13: 1517-1536.
35. Wang B, Wu R, Li T (2003) Atmosphere-warm ocean interaction and its impacts on the Asian-Australian monsoon variation. J Clim 16: 1195-1211.
36. Wang B, et al (2008). Advance and prospect of seasonal prediction: assessment of the APCC/CliPAS 14-model ensemble retroperspective seasonal prediction (1980-2004). Clim Dyn. doi: 10. 1007/s00382-008-0460-0.
37. Xie P, Arkin PA (1996) Analyses of global monthly precipitation using gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model predictions. J Clim 9: 840-858.
38. Xie S-P, Annamalai H, Schott FA, McCreary JP (2002) Structure and mechanisms of South Indian Ocean climate variability. J Clim 15: 864-878.
39. Xie S-P, Hu K, Hafner J, Tokinaga H, Du Y, Huang G, Sampe T (2009) Indian Ocean capacitor effect on Indo-Western Pacific climate during the summer following El Niño. J Clim 22: 730-747.
40. Yamagata T, Behera SK, Luo J-J, Masson S, Jury MR, Rao SA (2004) Coupled ocean-atmosphere variability in the tropical Indian Ocean. Earth Climate: The Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction, Geoph Monogr No. 147, Amer Geoph Uni, pp 189-212.
41. Yang J, Liu Q, Xie S-P, Liu Z, Wu L (2007) Impact of the Indian Ocean SST basin mode on the Asian summer monsoon. Geophys Res Lett 34: L02708. doi: 10. 1029/2006GL028571.
42. Yulaeva E, Wallace JM (1994) The signature of ENSO in global temperature and precipitation fields derived from the microwave sounding unit. J Clim 7: 1719-1736.
43. Zhang R, Sumi A, Kimoto M (1996) Impacts of El Niño on the East Asian monsoon: a diagnostic study of the '86/87 and '91/92 events. J Meteor Soc Japan 74: 49-62.