메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 24, Issue 5, 2010, Pages 633-638

Forecasting skill of model averages

Author keywords

Environmental models; Mean square error; Model average; Model comparison; Stochastic processes; Uncertainty

Indexed keywords

AVERAGE MODEL; BEST MODEL; COMPUTATIONAL MODEL; ENVIRONMENTAL MODEL; ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS; FORECASTING SKILL; INDIVIDUAL MODELS; REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS; STOCHASTIC PROCESS;

EID: 77955054926     PISSN: 14363240     EISSN: 14363259     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00477-009-0350-y     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (42)

References (32)
  • 1
    • 33644526990 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A manifesto for the equifinality thesis
    • Beven K (2006) A manifesto for the equifinality thesis. J Hydrol 320: 18-36.
    • (2006) J Hydrol , vol.320 , pp. 18-36
    • Beven, K.1
  • 2
    • 4544334413 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Long time-scale potential predictability in an ensemble of coupled climate models
    • Boer GJ (2004) Long time-scale potential predictability in an ensemble of coupled climate models. Clim Dyn 23: 29-44.
    • (2004) Clim Dyn , vol.23 , pp. 29-44
    • Boer, G.J.1
  • 3
    • 0347595266 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Another look at the conceptual fundamentals of porous media upscaling
    • Christakos G (2003) Another look at the conceptual fundamentals of porous media upscaling. Stoch Env Res Risk Assess 17(5): 276-290.
    • (2003) Stoch Env Res Risk Assess , vol.17 , Issue.5 , pp. 276-290
    • Christakos, G.1
  • 4
    • 0000165587 scopus 로고
    • A scoring system for probability forecasts of ranked categories
    • Epstein ES (1969) A scoring system for probability forecasts of ranked categories. J Appl Meteorol 8: 985-987.
    • (1969) J Appl Meteorol , vol.8 , pp. 985-987
    • Epstein, E.S.1
  • 5
    • 0024794531 scopus 로고
    • Skill scores and correlation coefficients in model verification
    • Epstein ES, Murphy AH (1989) Skill scores and correlation coefficients in model verification. Mon Weather Rev 117: 572-581.
    • (1989) Mon Weather Rev , vol.117 , pp. 572-581
    • Epstein, E.S.1    Murphy, A.H.2
  • 6
    • 0037092719 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Calculation of average, uncertainty range, and reliability of regional climate changes from AOGCM simulations via the "reliability ensemble averaging" (REA) method
    • Giorgi F, Mearns LO (2002) Calculation of average, uncertainty range, and reliability of regional climate changes from AOGCM simulations via the "reliability ensemble averaging" (REA) method. J Clim 15: 1141-1158.
    • (2002) J Clim , vol.15 , pp. 1141-1158
    • Giorgi, F.1    Mearns, L.O.2
  • 7
    • 0032007819 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • To be or not to be multi-Gaussian? A reflection on stochastic hydrogeology
    • Gomez-Hernandez JJ, Wen X-H (1998) To be or not to be multi-Gaussian? A reflection on stochastic hydrogeology. Adv Water Resour 21(1): 47-61.
    • (1998) Adv Water Resour , vol.21 , Issue.1 , pp. 47-61
    • Gomez-Hernandez, J.J.1    Wen, X.-H.2
  • 9
    • 0032876137 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Surface air temperature and its variations over the last 150 years
    • Jones PD, New M, Parker DE, Martin S, Rigor IG (1999) Surface air temperature and its variations over the last 150 years. Rev Geophys 37(173): 173-199.
    • (1999) Rev Geophys , vol.37 , Issue.173 , pp. 173-199
    • Jones, P.D.1    New, M.2    Parker, D.E.3    Martin, S.4    Rigor, I.G.5
  • 10
    • 52949115123 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Spatial analysis to quantify numerical model bias and dependence: How many climate models are there?
    • Jun M, Knutti R, Nychka DW (2008) Spatial analysis to quantify numerical model bias and dependence: how many climate models are there? J Am Stat Assoc 103(483): 934-947.
    • (2008) J Am Stat Assoc , vol.103 , Issue.483 , pp. 934-947
    • Jun, M.1    Knutti, R.2    Nychka, D.W.3
  • 11
    • 52949114242 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Local eigenvalue analysis of CMIP3 climate model errors
    • Knutti R, Jun M, Nychka DW (2008) Local eigenvalue analysis of CMIP3 climate model errors. Tellus A 60(5): 992-1000.
    • (2008) Tellus A , vol.60 , Issue.5 , pp. 992-1000
    • Knutti, R.1    Jun, M.2    Nychka, D.W.3
  • 12
    • 33846134354 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A review of predictability studies of Atlantic sector climate on decadal time scales
    • Latif M, Collins M, Pohlmann H, Keenlyside N (2006) A review of predictability studies of Atlantic sector climate on decadal time scales. J Clim 19: 5971-5987.
    • (2006) J Clim , vol.19 , pp. 5971-5987
    • Latif, M.1    Collins, M.2    Pohlmann, H.3    Keenlyside, N.4
  • 14
    • 0000904064 scopus 로고
    • A note on the ranked probability score
    • Murphy AH (1971) A note on the ranked probability score. J Appl Meteorol 10: 155-156.
    • (1971) J Appl Meteorol , vol.10 , pp. 155-156
    • Murphy, A.H.1
  • 15
    • 0024145684 scopus 로고
    • Skill scores based on the mean-square error and their relationships to the correlation coefficient
    • Murphy AH (1989) Skill scores based on the mean-square error and their relationships to the correlation coefficient. Mon Weather Rev 116: 2417-2424.
    • (1989) Mon Weather Rev , vol.116 , pp. 2417-2424
    • Murphy, A.H.1
  • 16
    • 0007968105 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • General decompositions of MSE based skill scores: Measures of some basic aspects of forecast quality
    • Murphy AH (1996) General decompositions of MSE based skill scores: measures of some basic aspects of forecast quality. Mon Weather Rev 124: 2353-2369.
    • (1996) Mon Weather Rev , vol.124 , pp. 2353-2369
    • Murphy, A.H.1
  • 17
    • 0348225037 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Maximum likelihood Bayesian averaging of uncertain model predictions
    • Neuman SP (2003) Maximum likelihood Bayesian averaging of uncertain model predictions. Stoch Env Res Risk Assess 17(5): 291-305.
    • (2003) Stoch Env Res Risk Assess , vol.17 , Issue.5 , pp. 291-305
    • Neuman, S.P.1
  • 18
    • 0242449087 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A comprehensive strategy of hydrogeologic modeling and uncertainty analysis for nuclear facilities and sites (NUREG/CR-6805). Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, U.S
    • July: Washington, DC
    • Neuman SP, Wierenga PJ (2003) A comprehensive strategy of hydrogeologic modeling and uncertainty analysis for nuclear facilities and sites (NUREG/CR-6805). Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC, July.
    • (2003) Nuclear Regulatory Commission
    • Neuman, S.P.1    Wierenga, P.J.2
  • 20
    • 0001100430 scopus 로고
    • The numerical measure of the success of predictions
    • Peirce CS (1884) The numerical measure of the success of predictions. Science 4: 453-454.
    • (1884) Science , vol.4 , pp. 453-454
    • Peirce, C.S.1
  • 21
    • 22244490375 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multimodel ranking and inference in ground water modeling
    • Poeter E, Anderson D (2005) Multimodel ranking and inference in ground water modeling. Ground Water 43(4): 597-605.
    • (2005) Ground Water , vol.43 , Issue.4 , pp. 597-605
    • Poeter, E.1    Anderson, D.2
  • 22
    • 0029413783 scopus 로고
    • Flow and transport in bimodal heterogeneous formations
    • Rubin Y (1995) Flow and transport in bimodal heterogeneous formations. Water Resour Res 31(10): 2461-2468.
    • (1995) Water Resour Res , vol.31 , Issue.10 , pp. 2461-2468
    • Rubin, Y.1
  • 23
    • 0015731803 scopus 로고
    • The relative operating characteristic in psychology
    • Swets JA (1973) The relative operating characteristic in psychology. Science 182: 990-1000.
    • (1973) Science , vol.182 , pp. 990-1000
    • Swets, J.A.1
  • 24
    • 34547177691 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The use of the multi-model ensemble in probabilistic climate projections
    • Tebaldi C, Knutti R (2007) The use of the multi-model ensemble in probabilistic climate projections. Philos Trans R Soc A 365(1857): 2053-2075.
    • (2007) Philos Trans R Soc A , vol.365 , Issue.1857 , pp. 2053-2075
    • Tebaldi, C.1    Knutti, R.2
  • 25
    • 14544287376 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Quantifying uncertainty in projections of regional climate change: A Bayesian approach to the analysis of multimodel ensembles
    • Tebaldi C, Smith RL, Nychka D, Mearns LO (2005) Quantifying uncertainty in projections of regional climate change: a Bayesian approach to the analysis of multimodel ensembles. J Clim 18(10): 1524-1540.
    • (2005) J Clim , vol.18 , Issue.10 , pp. 1524-1540
    • Tebaldi, C.1    Smith, R.L.2    Nychka, D.3    Mearns, L.O.4
  • 26
    • 0000324191 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • How to judge the quality and value of weather forecast products
    • Thornes JE, Stephenson DB (2001) How to judge the quality and value of weather forecast products. Meteorol Appl 8: 307-314.
    • (2001) Meteorol Appl , vol.8 , pp. 307-314
    • Thornes, J.E.1    Stephenson, D.B.2
  • 28
    • 0034352848 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Mean flow in composite porous media
    • Winter CL, Tartakovsky DM (2000) Mean flow in composite porous media. Geophys Res Lett 27(12): 1759-1762.
    • (2000) Geophys Res Lett , vol.27 , Issue.12 , pp. 1759-1762
    • Winter, C.L.1    Tartakovsky, D.M.2
  • 29
    • 0036702786 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Groundwater flow in heterogeneous composite aquifers
    • Winter CL, Tartakovsky DM (2002) Groundwater flow in heterogeneous composite aquifers. Water Resour Res 38(8): 1148.
    • (2002) Water Resour Res , vol.38 , Issue.8 , pp. 1148
    • Winter, C.L.1    Tartakovsky, D.M.2
  • 30
    • 2942700220 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Maximum likelihood Bayesian averaging of spatial variability models in unsaturated fractured tuff
    • Ye M, Neuman SP, Meyer PD (2004) Maximum likelihood Bayesian averaging of spatial variability models in unsaturated fractured tuff. Water Resour Res 40(5): W05113.
    • (2004) Water Resour Res , vol.40 , Issue.5
    • Ye, M.1    Neuman, S.P.2    Meyer, P.D.3
  • 31
    • 31444456874 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Sensitivity analysis and assessment of prior model probabilities in MLBMA with application to unsaturated fractured tuff
    • Ye M, Neuman SP, Meyer PD, Pohlmann KF (2005) Sensitivity analysis and assessment of prior model probabilities in MLBMA with application to unsaturated fractured tuff. Water Resour Res 41(12): W12429.
    • (2005) Water Resour Res , vol.41 , Issue.12
    • Ye, M.1    Neuman, S.P.2    Meyer, P.D.3    Pohlmann, K.F.4
  • 32
    • 43249109413 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On model selection criteria in multimodel analysis
    • Ye M, Meyer PD, Neuman SP (2008) On model selection criteria in multimodel analysis. Water Resour Res 44(3): W03428.
    • (2008) Water Resour Res , vol.44 , Issue.3
    • Ye, M.1    Meyer, P.D.2    Neuman, S.P.3


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.