Crop yield responses to climate change in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China

Agricultural Water Management

Volumn 97, Issue 8, 2010, Pages 1195-1209

  Liu, Suxia ^a   Mo, Xingguo ^a   Lin, Zhonghui ^a   Xu, Yueqing ^b   Ji, Jinjun ^c   Wen, Gang ^c,d   Richey, Jeff ^e  

^a INSTITUTE OF GEOGRAPHIC SCIENCES AND NATURAL RESOURCES RESEARCH   (China)

^b CHINA AGRICULTURAL UNIVERSITY   (China)

^c INSTITUTE OF ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS   (China)

^d China Clean Development Mechanism Fund   (China)

^e UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON   (United States)

Author keywords

Climate change; CO2 fertilization; Crop model; Crop yield; Huang Huai Hai Plain; Irrigation; Maize; North China Plain; VIP model; Winter wheat

Indexed keywords

CROP MODEL; CROP YIELD; HUANG-HUAI-HAI PLAIN; MAIZE; NORTH CHINA PLAIN; WINTER WHEAT;

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; CLIMATE MODELS; CONCENTRATION (PROCESS); CROPS; GRAIN (AGRICULTURAL PRODUCT); IRRIGATION; WATER RESOURCES; WATER SUPPLY;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

ATMOSPHERIC FORCING; CLIMATE CHANGE; CROP PRODUCTION; CROP YIELD; DOUBLE CROPPING; FERTILIZER APPLICATION; GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; INTENSIVE AGRICULTURE; IRRIGATION SYSTEM; PHOTOSYNTHESIS; STOMATAL CONDUCTANCE; TEMPERATURE EFFECT; WATER MANAGEMENT; WATER SUPPLY; YIELD RESPONSE;

CHINA; NORTH CHINA PLAIN;

TRITICUM AESTIVUM; ZEA MAYS;

EID: 77953127773     PISSN: 03783774     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2010.03.001     Document Type: Article

References (69)

1. Adriana M., Roman A.M., Cuculeanu V., and Roman Gh. Modelling maize responses to carbon dioxide doubling and climate changes. Agricultural Information Technology in Asia and Oceania. The Asian Federation for Information Technology in Agriculture (1998) 173-1173
2. 2 enrichment and water limitations on photosynthese and water efficiency in wheat. Plant Physiology and Biochemistry 31 (1993) 103-112
3. Anwar M.R., O'Leary G., McNeil D., Hossain H., and Nelson R. Climate change impact on rainfed wheat in south-eastern Australia. Field Crops Research 104 (2007) 139-147
4. 2. New Phytologist 165 (2005) 351-372
5. Bader, D.C., Covey, C., Gutowski, W.J., Jr., Held, I.M., Kunkel, K.E., Miller, R.L., Tokmakian, R.T., Zhang, M.H., 2008. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP): Climate Models: An Assessment of Strengths and Limitations. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. Department of Energy, Office of Biological and Environmental Research, Washington, D.C., USA, 124 pp.
6. Barry S., and Cai Y. Climate change and agriculture in China. Global Environmental Change 6 3 (1996) 205-214
7. 2 concentrations: a simulation study applying EPIC to the central USA. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 83 (1997) 17l-203
8. Chinese Statistics Yearbook, 2001. Statistic Publishing House of China.
9. Connor D.J., and Fereres E. A dynamic model of crop growth and partitioning of biomass. Field Crops Research 63 (1999) 139-157
10. Challinor A.J., Wheeler T.R., Craufurd P.Q., Ferro C.A.T., and Stephenson D.B. Adaptation of crops to climate change through genotypic responses to mean and extreme temperatures. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 119 (2007) 190-204
11. Edgington E.S. Randomization Tests. 2nd ed. (1987), Marcel Dekker, New York pp. 294-298
12. Egli D.B. Soybean yield trends from 1972 to 2003 in mid-western USA. Field Crops Research 106 (2008) 53-59
13. 2 emissions analysis. Environmental Modelling & Software 22 (2007) 378-393
14. 2 assimilation in leaves of C3 species. Planta 149 (1980) 78-99
15. Fischer G., Shah M., Tubiello F.N., and van Velhuizen H. Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: an integrated assessment, 1990-2080. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B 360 (2005) 2067-2083
16. Fu G., Charles S.P., Yu J., and Liu C. Decadal climatic variability, trends and future, scenarios for the North China Plain. Journal of Climate 22 (2009) 2111-2123 10.1175/2008JCLI2605.1
17. 2 partial pressure: a reassessment. Plant, Cell and Environment 23 (2000) 931-942
18. 2 enrichment (FACE) experiment. Agricultural and Forest Metereology 95 (1999) 27-51
19. 2-altered climates on groundwater recharge. Vadose Zone Journal 6 (2007) 597-609
20. Hatfield, 2009. Testimony of Dr. Jerry L. Hatfield, Director, National Soil Tilth Laboratory, Ames, Iowa, Before the House Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming, June 18, 2009 (http://globalwarming.house.gov/files/HRG/061809agriculture/HatfieldTestimony.pdf).
21. Hendrey G.R., and Kimball B.A. The FACE program. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 70 (1994) 3-14
22. Huntingford C., Lambert F.H., Gash J.H.C., Taylor C.M., and Challinor A.J. Aspects of climate change prediction relevant to crop productivity. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B 360 (2005) 1999-2009 10.1098/rstb.2005.1748
23. IPCC, 1996. In: Houghton, J.T., Meira Filho, L.G., Callander, B.A., Harris, N., Kattenberg, A., Maskell, K. (Eds.), Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p. 572.
24. Iglesias A., Rosenzweig C., and Pereira D. Agricultural impacts of climate change in Spain: developing tools for a spatial analysis. Global Environmental Change 10 (2000) 69-80
25. Izaurralde R.C., Rosenberg N.J., Brown R.A., and Thomson A.M. Integrated assessment of Hadley Center (HadCM2) climate-change impacts on agricultural productivity and irrigation water supply in the conterminous United States Part II. Regional agricultural production in 2030 and 2095. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 117 (2003) 97-122
26. Johnson F., and Sharma A. Measurement of GCM skill in predicting variables relevant for hydroclimatological assessments. Journal of Climate 22 16 (2009) 4373-4382 10.1175/2009JCLI2681.1
27. 2. Environmental and Experimental Botany 61 (2007) 224-236
28. Kou X., Ge J., Wang Y., and Zhang C. Validation of the weather generator CLIGEN with daily precipitation data from the Loess Plateau, China. Journal of Hydrology 347 (2007) 347-357
29. Koutsoyiannis D., Efstratiadis A., Mamassis N., and Christofides A. On the credibility of climate predictions. Hydrological Sciences Journal 53 4 (2008) 671-684
30. 2 fertilization in China. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B 360 (2005) 2149-2154
31. Liu C., and Wei Z. Agricultural Hydrology and Water Resources in the North China Plain (1989), Science Press, Beijing p. 432 (in Chinese)
32. Liu H., Li X., Fischer G., and Sun L. Study on the impacts of climate change on China's agriculture. Climatic Change 65 1-2 (2004) 125-148
33. Liu S., Qiu J., and Mo X. Wind velocity variation from 1951 to 2006 in the North China Plain. Resources Science 31 9 (2009) 1486-1492 (in Chinese)
34. Malone R.W., Meek D.W., Hatfi{ligature}eld J.L., Mann M.E., Jaquis R.J., and Ma L. Quasi-biennial corn yield cycles in Iowa. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 149 (2009) 1087-1094
35. McVicar T.R., Zhang G., Bradford A.S., Wang H., Dawes W.R., Zhang L., and Li L. Monitoring regional agricultural water use efficiency for Hebei Province on the North China Plain. Australian Journal of Agricultural Research 53 (2002) 55-76
36. McVicar T.R., Van Niel T.G., Li L.T., Roderick M.L., Rayner D.P., Ricciardulli L., and Donohue R.J. Wind speed climatology and trends for Australia 1975-2006: capturing the stilling phenomenon and comparison with near-surface reanalysis output. Geophysical Research Letters 35 (2008) doi:10.1029/2008GL035627, L20403
37. Mera R.J., Niyogi D., Buol G.S., Wilkerson G.G., and Semazzi F.H.M. Potential individual versus simultaneous climate change effects on soybean (C3) and maize (C4) crops: an agrotechnology model based study. Global and Planetary Change 54 (2006) 163-182
38. Mo X., and Liu S. Simulating evapotranspiration and photosynthesis of winter wheat over the growing season. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 109 (2001) 203-222
39. Mo X., Liu S., Lin Z., Xu Y., Xiang Y., and McVicar T.R. Prediction of crop yield, water consumption and water use efficiency with a SVAT-crop growth model using remotely sensed data on the North China Plain. Ecological Modelling 183 (2005) 301-322
40. Mo X., Liu S., and Lin Z. Spatial-temporal evolution and driving forces of winter wheat productivity in the Huang-Huai-Hai region. Journal of Natural Resources 21 3 (2006) 449-457 (in Chinese)
41. Mo X., Liu S., Lin Z., and Guo R. Regional crop yield, water consumption and water use efficiency and their responses to climate change in the North China Plain. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 134 (2009) 67-78
42. 2 concentration and temperature on plant growth. Plant, Cell and Environment 22 6 (1999) 659-682
43. National Climate Change Coordination Committee, 2007. China's National Assessment Report on Climate Change. Science Press, Beijing. Page 109. 422 pp.
44. Park, Hun Myoung, 2008. Hypothesis Testing and Statistical Power of a Test. Working Paper. The University Information Technology Services (UITS) Center for Statistical and Mathematical Computing, Indiana University. http://www.indiana.edu/∼statmath/stat/all/power/index.html.
45. Parton W.J., Scurlock J.M.O., Ojima D.S., Gilmanov T.G., Scholes R.J., Schimel D.S., Kirchner T., Menaut J.-C., Seastedt T., Moya E.G., Kamnalrut A., and Kinyamario J.I. Observations and modeling of biomass and soil organic matter dynamics for the grassland biome worldwide. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 7 4 (1993) 785-809
46. Parry M.L., Rosenzweig C., Iglesias A., Livermore M., and Fischer G. Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Global Environmental Change 14 (2004) 53-67
47. Parry M., Rosenzweig C., and Livermore M. Climate change, global food supply and risk of hunger. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B 360 (2005) 2125-2138 10.1098/rstb.2005.1751
48. In: Qin D., Chen Y., and Li X. (Eds). Climate and Environment Change (I)-Climate Change, Environmental Evolution and Projections (2005), Science Press, Beijing p. 562 (in Chinese)
49. 2 effects on soil moisture trends. Geophysical Research Letters 33 (2006) L20708 10.1029/2006GL027585
50. Roderick M.L., Rotstayn L.D., Farquhar G.D., and Hobbins M.T. On the attribution of changing pan evaporation. Geophysical Research Letters 34 (2007) L17403 doi:17410.11029/12007GL031166
51. 2 effects: a species comparison. Journal of Biogeography 22 (1995) 193-202
52. 2 exhalation. Plant Ecology 178 (2005) 211-224
53. Stockle, C.O., Campbell, G.S., Nelson, R., 1997. ClimGen for Windows, A Weather Generator Program. Biological Systems Engineering Dept., Washington State University, Pullman, WA., In: http://www.bsyse.wsu.edu/climgen.
54. Tan G., and Shibasaki R. Global estimation of crop productivity and the impacts of global warming by GIS and EPIC integration. Ecological Modelling 168 (2003) 357-370
55. Tao F., Yokozawa M., Xu Y., Hayashi Y., and Zhang Z. Climate changes and trends in phenology and yields of field crops in China, 1981-2000. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 138 (2006) 82-92
56. Tao F., Hayashi Y., Zhang Z., Sakamoto T., and Yokozawa M. Global warming, rice production, and water use in China: developing a probabilistic assessment. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 148 (2008) 94-110
57. Thomas A. Agricultural irrigation demand under present and future climate scenarios in China. Global and Planetary Change 60 (2008) 306-326
58. Thomson A.M., Izaurralde R.C., Rosenberg N.J., and He X. Climate change impacts on agriculture and soil carbon sequestration potential in the Huang-Hai Plain of China. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 114 (2006) 195-209
59. Tian, Z., 2006. A study on the Impact of Climate Change on the Potential Productivity in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain in China. Ph.D dissertation. Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (in Chinese).
60. Trnka M., Dubrovsky M., Semeradova D., and Zalud Z. Projections of uncertainties in climate change scenarios into expected winter wheat yields. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 77 (2004) 229-249
61. 2 on cropping systems: model predictions at two Italian locations. European Journal of Agronomy 12 (2000) 179-189
62. 2 on crops: approaches and applications for climate change. European Journal of Agronomy 18 (2002) 57-74
63. Tubiello F.N., and Fischer G. Reducing climate change impacts on agriculture: global and regional effects of mitigation, 2000-2080. Technological Forecasting & Social Change 74 (2007) 1030-1056
64. 2 concentration: a meta-analytic test of current theories and perceptions. Global Change Biology 5 (1999) 723-741
65. Wu K., and Huang R. The water and land resources sustainability evaluation, the development potential and the countermeasures in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain. Geographical Sciences 21 5 (2001) 390-395 (in Chinese)
66. Xiong W., Lin E., Ju H., and Xu Y. Climate change and critical thresholds in China's food security. Climatic Change 81 (2007) 205-221
67. Xu Y., Mo X., Cai Y., and Li X. Analysis on groundwater table drawdown by land use and the quest for sustainable water use in the Hebei Plain in China. Agricultural Water Management 75 1 (2005) 38-53
68. Zhang S., Peng G., and Huang M. The feature extraction and data fusion of regional soil textures based on GIS techniques. Climatic and Environmental Research 1 (2004) 65-79 (in Chinese)
69. Zhang X.-C., and Liu W.-Z. Simulating potential response of hydrology, soil erosion, and crop productivity to climate change in Changwu tableland region on the Loess Plateau of China. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 131 (2005) 127-142