Climate change and critical thresholds in China's food security

Climatic Change

Volumn 81, Issue 2, 2007, Pages 205-221

  Xiong, Wei ^a   Lin, Erda ^a   Ju, Hui ^a   Xu, Yinlong ^a  

^a INSTITUTE OF PLANT PROTECTION   (China)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

AGRICULTURE; CLIMATE CHANGE; ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL EFFECTS; INDUSTRIAL EMISSIONS; THERMAL EFFECTS;

FOOD PRODUCTION; FOOD SECURITY;

FOOD PRODUCTS;

CARBON DIOXIDE; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; CROP PRODUCTION; CROP YIELD; FOOD PRODUCTION; FOOD SECURITY; GREENHOUSE GAS; NATURE-SOCIETY RELATIONS; SOCIOECONOMIC CONDITIONS; TEMPERATURE EFFECT; THRESHOLD;

AGRICULTURE; EMISSION; FERTILIZATION; FOOD;

ASIA; CHINA; EURASIA; FAR EAST;

TRITICUM AESTIVUM; ZEA MAYS;

EID: 33847386674     PISSN: 01650009     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-006-9123-5     Document Type: Article

References (71)

1. Alexandratos N (1999) World food and agriculture: outlook for the medium and longer term. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 96:5908-5914
2. André M, Du Cloux H (1993) Interaction of CO2 enrichment and water limitations on photosynthese and water efficiency in wheat. Plant Physiol Bioch 31:103-112
3. Arnell NW, Livermore MJL, Kovats S, Levy P, Nicholls R, Parry ML, Gaffin S (2003) Climate and socioeconomic scenarios for climate change impacts assessments: characterizing the SRES storyline. Global Environ Chang 14:3-20
4. Bachelet D, van Sickle J, Gay CA (1993) The impacts of climate change on rice yield: evaluation of the efficacy of different modeling approaches, In: Penning de FWT, Teng PS, Metselaar K (eds) Systems approaches for agricultural development. Kluwer Academic Publisher, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, pp 145-174
5. Brown LR (1995) Who will feed China: wake-up call for a small planet. Norton, New York, p 163
6. Cholaw B, Cubasch U, Lin YH et al. (2003) The change of north china climate in transient simulations using the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 20:755-766
7. Cholaw B (2003) Simulation of the future change of East Asian monsoon climate using the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios. Chinese Science Bulletin 48:1024-1030
8. Cure JD, Acock B (1986) Crop responses to carbon dioxide doubling: a literature survey. Agric For Meteorol 38:127-145
9. Darwin R, Tsigas M, Lewandrowski J, Raneses A (1995) World agriculture and climate change: economic adaptations. Agricultural Economic Report No 703. US Department of Agriculture, Washington DC
10. Dejan R, Slobodanka DK (2003) MapEdit: solution to continuous raster map creation. Comput Geosic 29:115-122
11. Editing Committee of China Agriculture Yearbook (1997-2001) China Agriculture Yearbook. China Agriculture Press, Beijing
12. Ellis EC, Wang SM (1997) Sustainable traditional agriculture in the Tai Lake of China. Agr Ecosyst Environ 61:177-193
13. Fischer G, Shah M, van Velthuizen H (2002) Climate Cange and Agricultural Vulnerability. International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis, Vienna
14. Food and Agriculture Organization, and United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (FAO and UNESCO) (1988) Soil map of the world revised legend. World Resources Rep 60. FAO, Rome
15. Frolking S, Qiu J, Boles S, Xiao X, Liu J, Zhuang Y, Li C, Qin X (2002) Combining remote sensing and ground census data to develop new maps of the distribution of rice agriculture in China. Global Biogeochem Cy 16:1091, doi:10.1029/2001GB001425
16. Gaffin SR, Rosenzweig C, Xing XS, Yetman G (2004) Downscaling and geo-spatial gridding of socio-economic projections from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Global Environ Chang 14:105-123
17. Gale F (ed) China's food and agriculture: issues for the 21st century. Market and trade economic division, economic research service, U.S. department of agriculture. Agriculture Information Bulletin No 775
18. Gewin V (2002) Ecosystem health: the state of the planet. Nature 417:112-113
19. Godwin SL, Ritchie, Singh, U Hunt, L (1989) A user's guide to CERES-Wheat v. 2.10. Int Fert Dev Cent, Muscle Shoals, AL
20. Harrison PA, Porter JR, Downing TE (2000) Scaling up the AFRCWHEAT2 model to assess phonological development for wheat in Europe. Agric For Meteorol 101:167-186
21. Hitz S, Smith J (2004) Estimating global impacts from climate change. Global Environ Chang 14:201-218
22. Hoogenboom G, Tsuji GY, Pickering NB, Curry RB, Jones JW, Singh U, Godwin DC (1995) Decision support system to study climate change impacts on crop production. In: Rosenzweig C et al (ed) Climate change and agriculture: analysis of potential international impacts. ASA Spec Publ 59 ASA, CSSA, and SSSA, Madison, WI, pp 59-75
23. Hoogenboon G, Wilkens PW, Thornton PK, Jones JW, Hunt LA (1999) Advances in the development in and application of DSSAT. In: Donatelli M et al. (ed) Proc Int Symp Modeling Cropping Systems, Lérida, Spain. 21-23 June 1999. Agroclimatology and Agronomic Modeling Division of the Eur Soc For Agrn, Inst Natl de la Recherche Agron, Grignon, France, pp 201-202
24. Horie T, Baker JT, Nakagawa H, Matsui T (2000) Crop ecosystem responses to climatic change: rice, in: Climate Change and Global Crop Productivity. CAB International, Wallingford, United Kingdom, pp 81-106
25. Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ, Noguer M, van der Linden PJ, Dai X, Maskell K, Johnson CA (eds) (2001) Climate Change 2001: the scientific basic. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp 525-583
26. Hulme M, Sheard N (1999) Climate change scenarios for China. Climatic Research Unit, Norwich, UK, p 6
27. IPCC (1994) IPCC technical guidelines for assessing climate change impacts and adaptations. In: Carter TR, Parry ML, Harasawa H, Nishioka S (eds) Part of the IPCC Special Report to the First Session of the Conderence of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Working Group II, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. University College London, United Kingdom and Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan, p 59
28. Jones RG, Noguer M, Hassell DC, Hudson D, Wilson SS, Jenkins GJ, Mitchell JFB (2004) Generating high resolution climate change scenarios using PRECIS. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK, p 35
29. Kenny GJ, Warrick RA, Campbell BD, Sims GC, Camilleri M, Jamieson PD, Mitchell ND, McPherson HG, Salinger MJ (2000) Investigating climate change impacts and thresholds: an application of the CLIMPACTS integrated assessment model for New Zealand agriculture. Climatic Change 46:91-113
30. Kimball BA (1983) Carbon dioxide and agricultural yield: an assemblage and analysis of 430 prior observation. Agron J 75:779-788
31. Knox JW, Matthews RB, Wassmann R (2000) Using a crop/soil simulation model and GIS techniques to assess methane emissions from rice fields in Asia III Databases. Nutr Cycl Agroecosys 58:179-199
32. 2 fertilization in China. Phil Trans R Soc B 360:2149-2154
33. Liu JY, Liu ML, Deng XZ, Zhuang DF, Zhang ZX, Luo. D (2002) The land use and land cover change database and its relative studies in China. Journal of Geographical Sciences 12:275-282
34. 2 fertilization on agriculture in Québec. Agric For Meteorol 85:193-208
35. Mall PL, Lal M, Bhatia VS, Rathore LS, Singh R (2004) Mitigating climate change impact on soybean productivity in India: a simulation study. Agric For Meteorol 121:113-125
36. Matthews RB, Wassmann R, Buendia LA, Knox JW (2000) Using a crop/soil simulation model and GIS techniques to assess methane emissions from rice fields in Asia. II. Model validation and sensitivity analysis. Nutr Cycl Agroecosys 58:161-177
37. Maytìn CE, Acevedo MF, Jaimez R, Anderson R, Harwell MA, Robock A, Azocar A (1995) Potential effects of global climatic change on the phenology and yield of maize in Venezuela. Climatic Change 29:189-211
38. McCarthy JJ, Canziani OF, Leary NA, Dokken DJ, White KS (eds) (2001) Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp 3-17
39. Mendelsohn R, Dinar A (1999) Climate change, agriculture, and developing countries: does adaptation matter? The World Bank Research Observer 14:277-293
40. Nakicenovic N et al. (2000) Special Report on Emission Scenarios. Cambridge University Press, London
41. Parry M, Rosenzweig C, Iglesias A, Fischer F, Livermore M (1999) Climate change and world food security: a new assessment. Global Environ Chang 9:S51-S67
42. Parry ML, Carter TR, Hulme M (1996) What is a dangerous climate change? Global Environ Chang 6:1-6
43. Parry ML, Rosenzweig C, Iglesias A, Livermore M, Fischer G (2004) Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Global Environ Chang 14:53-67
44. 2 enrichment: responses of cotton and wheat crops. In: Carbon Dioxide and Terrestrial Ecosystems. Academic Press, San Diego, CA, USA, pp 215.249
45. Prasad E (ed) (2004) China's growth and integration into the world economy, prospects and challenges. International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC
46. Priestley CHB, Taylor RJ (1972) On the assessment of surface heat flux and evaporation using large-scale parameters. Mon Weather Rev 100:81-92
47. Qiu JJ, Tang HJ, Frolking S, Boles S, Li C, Xiao X, Liu J, Zhuang YH, Qin XG (2003) Mapping single-, double-, and triple-crop agriculture in China at 0.5 × 0.5° by combining county-scale census data with a remote sensing-derived land cover map. Geocarto International 18:3-13
48. Ritchie JT, Singh U, Godwin D, Hunt L (1989) A user's guide to CERES-Maize v. 2.10. Int Fert Dev Cent, Muscle Shoals, AL
49. Ritchie JT, Singh U, Godwin DC, Bowen WT (1998) Cereal growth, development and yield. In: Tsuji GY, Hoogenboom G, Thornton PK (eds) Understanding options for agricultural production. Kluwer Academic Publisher, Dordrecht, the Netherlands, pp 79-97
50. Rosenzweig C, Parry M, Fischer G (1995) World food supply. In: Strzepek KM, Smith JB (eds) As Climate Changes: International Impacts and Implications. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp 27-56
51. Rosenzweig C, Lglesias A, Fischer G, Liu YH, Baethgen W, Jones W (1999) Wheat yield functions for analysis of land-use change in China. Environmental Modeling and Assessment 4:115-132
52. Rowell DP (2004) An initial estimate of the Uncertainty in UK predicted Climate Change resulting from RCM formulation. Hadley Centre Technical Note 49, Met Office, the UK
53. 2 effects: a species comparison. J Biogeogr 22:193-202
54. 2 effects on water and growth of maize in wet and drying soil. Aust J Plant Physiol 23:53-62
55. Singh U, Ritchie JT, Godwin DC (1993) A user's guide to CERES-Rice v. 2.10. Simulation manual IFDC-SM-4, IFDC, Muscle Shoals, Al, USA, p 131
56. Sinha SK (1992) Impact of climate change on agriculture: a critical assessment. In: Jager J, Ferguson HL (eds) Climate Change: Science, Impacts and Policy (Proc 2nd World Climate Conference), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 98-107
57. Smith JB, Schellnhuber HJ, Mirza MQ, Fankhauser S, Leemans R, Erda L, Ogallo L, Pittock B, Richels R, Rosenzweig C, Safriel U, Tol RSJ, Weyant J, Yoke G (2001) Vulnerability to climate change and reasons for concern: a synthesis. In: McCarthy JJ, Canziani O, Leary N, Dokken D, White K (eds) Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Cambridge University Press, New York, pp 913-967
58. Tao FL, Yokozawa M, Hayshi Y, Lin ED (2003) Changes in agricultural water demands and soil moisture in China over the last half-century and their effects on agricultural production. Agric For Meteorol 118:251-261
59. Tao FL, Yokozawa M, Hayashi Y, Lin ED (2003) Future climate change, the agricultural water cycle, and agricultural production in China. Agr Ecosyst Environ 95:203-215
60. Tao FL, Yokozawa M, Xu YL, Hayashi Y, Zhang Z (2006) Climate changes and trends in phenology and yields of field crops in China, 1981-2000 Agric. For. Meteorol (In press)
61. Tong CL, Hall CAS, Wang HQ (2003) Land use change in rice, wheat and maize production in China (1961-1998). Agr Ecosyst Environ 95:523-536
62. Tsuji GY, Uehara G, Balas S (eds) (1994) Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer Ver 3. IBSNAT. Univ of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI
63. UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) (2002) Climate Change Scenarios for the United Kingdom. The UKCIP02 Scientific Report. Tyndall Centre and Hadley Centre. UK, pp 45-65
64. United Nations, Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2004) World Population Prospects: the 2004 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: the 2003 Revision. http://eas.un.org/unpp
65. van Lieshout M, Kovats RS, Livermore MTJ, Martens P (2004) Climate change and malaria: analysis of the SRES climate and socio-economic scenarios. Global Environ Chang 14:87-99
66. Wang Q, Halbrendt C, Johnson SR (1995) Grain production and environmental management in China's fertilizer economy. J Environ Manage 47:283-296
67. Wolf J, van Diepen CA (1995) Effects of climate change on grain maize yield potential in the European Community. Climatic Change 29:299-331
68. Wu Y, Sakamoto CM, Botner BM (1989) On the application of the CERES-maize model to the North China Plain. Agric For Meteorol 49:9-22
69. Xiao XM, Boles S, Liu JY, Zhuang DF, Frolking S, Li CS, Salas W, Moore B (2005) Mapping paddy rice agriculture in southern China using multi-temporal MODIS images. Remote Sens Environ 95:480-492
70. Xiong W, Xu YL, Lin ED, Lu ZG (2005) Regional simulation of maize yield under IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios. Chin J Agrometeorol 26:11-16
71. Xu YL (2004) Setting up PRECIS over China to develop regional SRES climate change scenarios. In: Proceedings of the international workshop: Prediction of Food Production Variation in East Asia under Global Warming. Tsukuba, Japan, pp 17-21