Predicting the impacts of ocean acidification: Challenges from an ecosystem perspective

Journal of Marine Systems

Volumn 81, Issue 1-2, 2010, Pages 12-18

  Blackford, Jerry C ^a  

^a PLYMOUTH MARINE LABORATORY   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

CO2; Ecosystem approach; Ecosystems; Modelling; Ocean acidification; Prediction

Indexed keywords

CO2; COMPLEX MODEL; ECOSYSTEM APPROACH; ECOSYSTEM EVOLUTION; MARINE SYSTEMS; MODEL SYSTEM; OPTIMAL STRATEGIES; PREDICTIVE CAPABILITIES; TROPHIC INTERACTIONS;

CLIMATE CHANGE; COMPLEXATION; EUTROPHICATION; OCEAN CURRENTS;

ECOSYSTEMS;

ACIDIFICATION; CARBON DIOXIDE; CLIMATE CHANGE; ECOSYSTEM APPROACH; ECOSYSTEM MODELING; POLICY APPROACH; PREDICTION; STRATEGIC APPROACH; TROPHIC INTERACTION;

EID: 77649180322     PISSN: 09247963     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jmarsys.2009.12.016     Document Type: Article

References (101)

1. Allen J.I., Anderson T., Buitenhuis E., Geider R., Haines K., Hirata T., Holt J., le Quere C., Ross O., Sinha B., and While J. Marine ecosystem models for earth systems applications: The MARQUEST experience. Journal of Marine Systems 81 (2010) 19-33
2. Anderson T.R. Plankton functional type modelling: running before we can walk?. Journal of Plankton Research 27 (2005) 1073-1081
3. Anderson T.R. Confronting complexity: reply to Le Quéré and Flynn. Journal of Plankton Research 28 (2006) 877-878
4. 2 sink in the subtropical gyre of the North Atlantic Ocean over the last 2 decades. Journal of Geophysical Research 112 (2007) C09013
5. Beaugrand G. The North Sea regime shift: evidence, causes, mechanisms and consequences. Progress in Oceanography 60 (2004) 245-262
6. Beaugrand G., Reid P.C., Ibanez F., Lindley J.A., and Edwards M. Reorganization of North Atlantic marine copepod biodiversity and climate. Science 296 (2002) 1692-1694
7. Beaumont N.J., Austen M.C., Atkins J.P., Burdon D., Degraer S., Dentinho T.P., Derous S., Holm P., Horton T., van Ierland E., Marboe A.H., Starkey D.J., Townsend M., and Zarzycki T. Identification, definition and quantification of goods and services provided by marine biodiversity: implications for the ecosystem approach. Marine Pollution Bulletin 54 (2007) 253-265
8. 2 system in the Nordic Seas and North Atlantic to climate change. In: Drange H., Dokken T.M., Furevik T., Gerdes R., and Berger W. (Eds). Climate Variability in the Nordic Seas: Geophysical Monograph Series, AGU (2005) 189-198
9. 2 induced acidification in the North Sea. Journal of Marine Systems 64 (2007) 229-241
10. 2 in surface seawater along Belgian and southern Dutch coastal areas. Journal of Marine Systems 19 (1999) 251-266
11. Borges A.V., and Frankignoulle M. Distribution of surface carbon dioxide and air-sea exchange in the English Channel and adjacent areas. Journal of Geophysical Research 108 C5 (2003) 3140
12. 2 in three European estuaries (Randers Fjord, Scheldt, and Thames). Limnology and Oceanography 49 5 (2004) 1630-1641
13. Borges A.V., Schiettecatte L.-S., Abril G., Delille B., and Gazeau F. Carbon dioxide in European Coastal waters. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 70 (2006) 375-387
14. 2 partial pressure in a marine Mediterranean coastal ecosystem (Brusc Lagoon, France). Ecological Modelling 208 (2007) 189-204
15. 2 in the North Sea - evidence from summer observation. Marine Chemistry 93 (2005) 131-147
16. Caldeira K., and Wickett M.E. Anthropogenic carbon and ocean pH. Nature 425 (2003) 365
17. Cao L., Caldeira K., and Jain A.K. Effects of carbon dioxide and climate change on ocean acidification and carbonate mineral saturation. Geophysical Research Letters 34 (2007) L05607
18. Chavez F.P., Ryan J., Lluch-Cota S.E., and Ñiquen M.C. From anchovies to sardines and back: multidecadal change in the Pacific Ocean. Science 299 (2003) 217-221
19. de Young B., Heath M., Werner F., Chai F., Megrey B., and Monfray P. Challenges of modeling ocean basin ecosystems. Science 304 (2004) 1463-1466
20. 2 during experimental blooms of the coccolithophorid Emiliania huxleyi. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 19 (2005) GB2023
21. Doney S.C., Lindsay K., Caldeira K., Campin J.-M., Drange H., Dutay J.-C., Follows M., Gao Y., Gnanadesikan A., Gruber N., Ishida A., Joos F., Madec G., Maier-Reimer E., Marshall J.-C., Matear R.J., Monfray P., Mouchet A., Najjar R., Orr J.C., Plattner G.-K., Sarmiento J., Schlitzer R., Slater R., Totterdell I.J., Weirig M.F., Yamanaka Y., and Yool A. Evaluating global ocean carbon models: the importance of realistic physics. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 18 (2004) GB3017
22. 2 concentration on a bloom of the coccolithophorid Emiliania huxleyi in mesocosm experiments. Limnology and Oceanography 50 2 (2005) 493-507
23. 2 ocean. Science 320 (2008) 1020-1022
24. Fabry V.J., Seibel B.A., Feely R.A., and Orr J.C. Impacts of ocean acidification on marine fauna and ecosystem processes. ICES Journal of Marine Science 65 (2008) 414-432
25. Feely R.A., Sabine C.L., Hernandez-Ayon J.M., Ianson D., and Hales B. Evidence for upwelling of corrosive "acidified" water onto the continental shelf. Science 320 (2008) 1490-1492
26. Flynn K.J. Castles built on sand: dysfunctionality in plankton models and the inadequacy of dialogue between biologists and modellers. Journal of Plankton Research 27 (2005) 1205-1210
27. Flynn K.J. Reply to Horizons article 'Plankton functional type modelling: running before we can walk' Anderson 2005: II. Putting trophic functionality into plankton functional types. Journal of Plankton Research 28 (2006) 873-875
28. Follows M.J., Dutkiewicz S., Grant S., and Chisholm S.W. Emergent biogeography of microbial communities in a model ocean. Science 315 (2007) 1843-1846
29. Frank K.T., Petrie B., Choi J.S., and Leggett W.C. Trophic cascades in a formerly cod-dominated ecosystem. Science 308 (2005) 1621-1623
30. Frankignoulle M., and Borges A.V. European continental shelf as a significant sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 15 (2001) 569-576
31. Frankignoulle M., Abril G., Borges A., Bourge I., Canon C., DeLille B., Libert E., and Theate J.M. Carbon dioxide emission from European estuaries. Science 282 (1998) 434-436
32. Friedrichs M.A.M., Dusenberry J.A., Anderson L.A., Armstrong R.A., Chai F., Christian J.R., Doney S.C., Dunne J., Fujii M., Hood R., McGillicuddy Jr. D.J., Moore J.K., Schartau M., Spitz Y.H., and Wiggert J.D. Assessment of skill and portability in regional marine biogeochemical models: role of multiple planktonic groups. Journal of Geophysical Research 112 (2007) C08001
33. Gibbs S.J., Bown P.R., Sessa J.A., Bralower T.J., and Wilson P.A. Nanoplankton extinction and origination across the paleocene-eocene thermal maximum. Science 314 (2006) 1770-1773
34. Guinotte J.M., and Fabry V.J. Ocean acidification and its potential effects on marine ecosystems. Annuals New York Acadamy Science 1134 (2008) 320-342
35. 2 fluxes in the coastal Southern North Sea: a model study of the past 50 years. Global Change Biology 15 (2009) 1040-1056
36. Hall-Spencer J.M., Rodolfo-Metalpa R., Martin S., Ransome E., Fine M., Turner S.M., Rowley S.J., Tedesco D., and Buia M.C. Volcanic carbon dioxide vents show ecosystem effects of ocean acidification. Nature 454 (2008) 96-99
37. Hashioka T., and Yamanaka Y. Ecosystem change in the western North Pacific associated with global warming using 3D-NEMURO. Ecological Modelling 202 (2007) 95-104
38. Hinga K.R. Effects of pH on coastal marine phytoplankton. Marine Ecology Progress Series 238 (2002) 281-300
39. Hoegh-Guldberg O., Mumby P.J., Hooten A.J., Steneck R.S., Greenfield P., Gomez E., Harvell C.D., Sale P.F., Edwards A.J., Caldeira K., Knowlton N., Eakin C.M., Iglesias-Prieto R., Muthiga N., Bradbury R.H., Dubi A., and Hatziolos M.E. Coral reefs under rapid climate change and ocean acidification. Science 318 (2007) 1737-1742
40. Hood R.R., Laws E.A., Follows M.J., and Siegel D.A. Modeling and prediction of marine microbial populations in the genomic era. Oceanography 20 2 (2007) 155-165
41. Huesemann M.H., Skillman A.D., and Creclius E.A. The inhibition of marine nitrification by ocean disposal of carbon dioxide. Marine Pollution Bulletin 44 2 (2002) 142-148
42. 2 fixation, photosynthesis, growth rates, and elemental ratios: implications for past, present, and future ocean biogeochemistry. Limnology and Oceanography 52 (2007) 1293-1304
43. 2 concentrations. Global Change Biology 8 (2002) 831-840
44. Jackson J.B.C., Kirby M.X., Berger W.H., Bjorndal K.A., Botsford L.W., Bourque B.J., Bradbury R.H., Cooke R., Erlandson J., Estes J.A., Hughes T.P., Kidwell S., Lange C.B., Lenihan H.S., Pandolfi J.M., Peterson C.H., Steneck R.S., Tegner M.J., and Warner R.A. Historical overfishing and the recent collapse of coastal ecosystems. Science 293 (2001) 629-637
45. Kleypas J.A., Buddemeier R.W., Eakin C.M., Gattuso J.-P., Guinotte J., Hoegh-Guldberg O., Iglesias-Prieto R., Jokiel P.L., Langdon C., Skirving W., and Strong A.E. Comment on "coral reef calcification and climate change: the effect of ocean warming". Geophysical Research Letters 32 (2005) L08601
46. Kleypas J.A., Feely R.A., Fabry V.J., Langdon C., Sabine C.L., and Robbins L.L. Impacts of Ocean-Acidification on Coral Reefs and other marine calcifiers: A guide for future research, report of a workshop held 18-20 April 2005, St. Petersburg, FL, sponsored by NSF, NOAA and the US Geological Survey (2006) 88 pp
47. 2 on sea urchin early development. Marine Ecology Progress Series 274 (2004) 161-169
48. 2 on photosynthesis and calcification of corals and interactions with seasonal change in temperature/irradiance and nutrient enrichment. Journal of Geophysical Research 110 (2005) C09S07
49. Langer G., Geisen M., Baumann K.H., Klas J., Riebesell U., Thoms S., and Young J.R. Species-specific responses of calcifying algae to changing seawater carbonate chemistry. Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems 7 (2006) Q09006
50. Le Quéré C. Reply to Horizons article 'Plankton functional type modelling: running before we can walk' Anderson (2005): I. Abrupt changes in marine ecosystems?. Journal of Plankton Research 28 (2006) 871-872
51. Lee K., Tong L.T., Millero F.J., Sabine C.L., Dickson A.G., Goyet C., Park G.H., Wanninkhof R., Feely R.A., and Key R.M. Global relationships of total alkalinity with salinity and temperature in surface waters of the world's oceans. Geophysical Research Letters 33 (2006) L19605
52. 2 world. Journal of Geophysical Research 110 (2005) C09S17
53. 2 enhances nitrogen fixation and growth in the marine cyanobacterium Trichodesmium. Global Change Biology 13 (2007) 531-538
54. Liu K.-K., Iseki K., and Chao S.-Y. Continental margin carbon fluxes. In: Hanson R.B., Ducklow H.W., and Field J.G. (Eds). The Changing Ocean Carbon Cycle: a Midterm Synthesis of the Joint Global Ocean Flux Study. International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme Book Series vol. 5 (2000), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge 187-239
55. McNeil B.I., Matear R.J., and Barnes D.J. Coral reef calcification and climate change: the effect of ocean warming. Geophysical Research Letters 31 (2004) L22309
56. Millero F.J., Lee K., and Roche M. Distribution of alkalinity in the surface waters of the major oceans. Marine Chemistry 60 (1998) 111-130
57. Miranda C.D., and Zemelman R. Bacterial resistance to oxytetracycline in Chilean salmon farming. Aquaculture 212 (2002) 31-47
58. Mitra A., and Flynn K.J. Predator-prey interactions: is 'ecological stoichiometry' sufficient when good food goes bad?. Journal of Plankton Research 27 (2005) 393-399
59. Orr J.C., Fabry V.J., Aumont O., Bopp L., Doney S.C., Feely R.A., Gnanadesikan A., Gruber N., Ishida A., Joos F., Key R.M., Lindsay K., Maier-Reimer E., Matear R., Monfray P., Mouchet A., Najjar R.G., Plattner G.-K., Rodgers K.B., Sabine C.L., Sarmiento L.J., Schlitzer R., Slater R.D., Totterdell I.J., Weirig M.-F., Yamanaka Y., and Yool A. Anthropogenic ocean acidification over the twenty-first century and its impact on calcifying organisms. Nature 437 (2005) 681-686
60. Oschlies A., Shulz K.G., Riebesell U., and Schmittner A. Simulated 21st century's increase in oceanic suboxia by CO2-enhanced biotic carbon export. Global Biogeochemal Cycles 22 (2008) GB4008
61. 2 measurements in the English Channel and Southern Bight of North Sea using voluntary observing ships. Journal of Marine Systems 66 (2007) 297-308
62. Pahlow, M., Vézina, A.F., Casault, B., Maass, H., Malloch, L., Wright, D.G., Lu, Y. 2008. Adaptive model of plankton dynamics for the North Atlantic. Progress in Oceanography 76, 151-191.
63. Pätsch J., and Lenhart H.J. Daily loads of nutrients, total alkalinity, dissolved inorganic carbon and dissolved organic carbon of the European continental rivers for the years 1977-2002. Berichte aus dem Zentrum für Meeres- und Klimaforschung; Reihe B: Ozeanographie 48 (2004) 159 pp
64. Pörtner H.O., and Farrell A.P. Ecology physiology and climate change. Science 322 (2008) 690-692
65. Portner H.O., and Knust R. Climate change affects marine fishes through the oxygen limitation of thermal tolerance. Science 315 (2007) 95-97
66. 2 on marine animals: from Earth history to global change. Journal of Geophysical Research 110 (2005) 1-15
67. 2 concentrations: lessons from animal physiology and earth history. Journal of Oceanography 60 (2004) 705-718
68. Raymond P.A., and Cole J.J. Increase in the export of alkalinity from North America's largest river. Science 301 (2003) 88-91
69. 2 enrichment on marine phytoplankton. Journal of Oceanography 60 (2004) 719-729
70. 2. Nature 407 (2000) 364-367
71. 2 ocean. Nature 450 (2007) 545-548
72. Rost B., Riebesell U., and Burkhardt S. Carbon acquisition of bloom forming marine phytoplankton. Limnology and Oceanography 48 (2003) 55-67
73. Royal Society, Raven J., Caldeira K., Elderfield H., Hough-Guldberg O., Liss P., Riebesell U., Shepherd J., Turley C.M., and Watson A. Ocean acidification due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. The Royal Society Policy Document 12/05 (2005) 68
74. 2 parameters in the northeast Atlantic subtropical gyre at the ESTOC site. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 21 (2007) GB1015
75. Schiettecatte L.-S., Thomas H., Bozec Y., and Borges A.V. High temporal coverage of carbon dioxide measurements in the Southern Bight of the North Sea. Marine Chemistry 106 (2007) 161-173
76. 2 in the North Atlantic. Journal of Geophysical Research 112 (2007) C11006
77. Seitzinger S.P., Harrison J.A., Dumont E., Beusen A.H.W., and Bouwman A.F. Sources and delivery of carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus to the coastal zone: an overview of Global Nutrient Export from Watersheds (NEWS) models and their application. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 19 (2005) GB4S01
78. 2 on shallow water marine benthos. Journal of Geophysical Research 110 (2005) C09S08
79. Sluijs A., Bowen G.J., Brinkhuis H., Lourens L.J., and Thomas E. The Palaeocene-Eocene thermal maximum super greenhouse: biotic and geochemical signatures, age models and mechanisms of global change. In: Williams M., Haywood A.M., Gregory F.J., and Schmidt D.N. (Eds). Deep time perspectives on climate change - marrying the signal from computer models and biological proxies. TMS Special Publication vol. 2 (2007), The Geological Society of London, London
80. Steinacher M., Joos F., Frölicher T.L., Plattner G.-K., and Doney S.C. Imminent ocean acidification projected with the NCAR global coupled carbon cycle-climate model. Biogeosciences Discussions 5 (2008) 4353-4393
81. Stern, N., 2006. Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change. UK Gov. http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/sternreview_index.htm.
82. Stow C.A., Jolliff J., McGillicuddy Jr. D.J., Doney S.C., Allen J.I., Friedrichs M.A.M., Rose K.A., and Wallhead P. Skill assessment for coupled biological/physical models of marine systems. Journal of Marine Systems 76 (2009) 4-15
83. Strong D.R. Are trophic cascades all wet - differentiation and donor-control in speciose ecosystems. Ecology 73 (1992) 747-754
84. Thingstad T.F., Bellerby R.G.J., Bratbak G., Børsheim K.Y., Egge J.K., Heldal M., Larsen A., Neill C., Nejstgaard J., Norland S., Sandaa R.-A., Skjoldal E.F., Tanaka T., Thyrhaug R., and Töpper B. Counterintuitive carbon-to-nutrient coupling in an Arctic pelagic ecosystem. Nature 455 (2008) 387-390
85. 2 from shelf sea pumping. Science 304 (2004) 1005-1008
86. Thomas H., Bozec Y., de Baar H.J.W., Elkalay K., Frankignoulle M., Schiettecatte L.-S., Kattner G., and Borges A.V. The carbon budget of the North Sea. Biogeosciences 2 (2005) 87-96
87. 2 in the North Sea. Biogeosciences 2 (2005) 323-334
88. 2 buffering capacity in the North Sea and implications for the North Atlantic Ocean. Global Biogeochemal Cycles 21 (2007) GB4001
89. Thomas H., Schiettecatte L.-S., Suykens K., Koné Y.J.M., Shadwick E.H., Prowe A.E.F., Bozec Y., de Baar H.J.W., and Borges A.V. Enhanced ocean carbon storage from anaerobic alkalinity generation in coastal sediments. Biogeosciences 6 (2009) 267-274
90. 2 effects on taxonomic composition and nutrient utilization in an Equatorial Pacific phytoplankton assemblage. Marine Ecology Progress Series 236 (2002) 37-43
91. 2 sensitivity of southern ocean phytoplankton. Geophysical Research Letters 35 (2008) L04605
92. Trenberth K.E., and Hoar T.J. El Niño and climate change. Geophysical Research Letters 24 23 (1997) 3057-3060
93. Tyrrell T., Schneider B., Charalampopoulou A., and Riebesell U. Coccolithophores and calcite saturation state in the Baltic and Black Seas. Biogeosciences 5 (2008) 485-494
94. Vallino J.J. Improving marine ecosystem models: use of data assimilation and mesocosm experiments. Journal of Marine Research 58 (2000) 117-164
95. 2 induced seawater acidification on the burrowing activity of Nereis virens and sediment nutrient flux. Marine Ecology Progress Series 341 (2007) 111-122
96. Widdicombe S., and Spicer J.I. Predicting the impact of Ocean acidification on benthic biodiversity: what can physiology tell us?. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology 366 (2008) 187-197
97. Wood H.L., Spicer J.I., and Widdicombe S. Ocean acidification may increase calcification rates - but at a cost. Proceedings of the Royal Society B 275 (2008) 1767-1773
98. Zachos J.C., Röhl U., Schellenberg S.A., Sluijs A., Hodell D.A., Kelly D.C., Thomas E., Nicolo M., Raffi I., Lourens L.J., McCarren H., and Kroon D. Rapid acidification of the ocean during the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum. Science 308 (2005) 1611-1615
99. 2 in seawater: equilibrium, kinetics and isotopes. Elsevier Oceanography Series 65 (2001) 346
100. 2 on the production of calcium carbonate and organic carbon in coccolithophores - a review. Deep-Sea Research II 5-7 (2007) 521-537
101. 2. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 15 (2001) 507-516