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Volumn 11, Issue 3, 2004, Pages 399-409

Relative impact of model quality and ensemble deficiencies on the performance of ensemble based probabilistic forecasts evaluated through the Brier score

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE MODELING; FORECASTING METHOD; MODEL VALIDATION; PROBABILITY;

EID: 7044239702     PISSN: 10235809     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5194/npg-11-399-2004     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (10)

References (15)
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  • 2
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    • Spatial and interannual variability of the reliability of ensemble based probabilistic forecasts: Consequences for calibration
    • Atger, F.: Spatial and interannual variability of the reliability of ensemble based probabilistic forecasts: Consequences for calibration, Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 1509-1523, 2003.
    • (2003) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.131 , pp. 1509-1523
    • Atger, F.1
  • 3
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    • Estimation of the expected reliability of ensemble based probabilistic forecasts
    • Atger, F.: Estimation of the expected reliability of ensemble based probabilistic forecasts, Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 130, 627-646, 2004.
    • (2004) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , vol.130 , pp. 627-646
    • Atger, F.1
  • 4
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    • Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability
    • Brier, G. W.: Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability, Mon. Wea. Rev., 78, 1-3, 1950.
    • (1950) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.78 , pp. 1-3
    • Brier, G.W.1
  • 5
    • 0002531176 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Potential forecast skill of ensemble prediction, and spread and skill distributions of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System
    • Buizza, R.: Potential forecast skill of ensemble prediction, and spread and skill distributions of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System, Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 99-119, 1997.
    • (1997) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.125 , pp. 99-119
    • Buizza, R.1
  • 6
    • 7044278905 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the limitations to objective evaluation of ensemble prediction systems
    • Val-Morin, Québec, Canada, 18-20 September
    • Candille, G.: On the limitations to objective evaluation of ensemble prediction systems, Workshop on Ensemble Weather Forecasting in the Short to Medium Range, Val-Morin, Québec, Canada, 18-20 September, 2003a.
    • (2003) Workshop on Ensemble Weather Forecasting in the Short to Medium Range
    • Candille, G.1
  • 9
    • 0035302469 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Quantitative precipitation forecasts over the United States by the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System
    • Mullen, S. L. and Buizza, R.: Quantitative precipitation forecasts over the United States by the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System, Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 638-661, 2001.
    • (2001) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.129 , pp. 638-661
    • Mullen, S.L.1    Buizza, R.2
  • 10
    • 0000918735 scopus 로고
    • A new vector partition of the probability score
    • Murphy, A. H.: A new vector partition of the probability score, J. Appl. Meteor., 12, 595-600, 1973.
    • (1973) J. Appl. Meteor. , vol.12 , pp. 595-600
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  • 12
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    • Measures of skill and value of ensemble prediction systems, their interrelationship and the effect of ensemble size
    • Richardson, D. S.: Measures of skill and value of ensemble prediction systems, their interrelationship and the effect of ensemble size, Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 127, 2473-2489, 2001.
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  • 13
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    • Ensemble forecasting at NCEP and the breeding method
    • Toth, Z. and Kalnay, E.: Ensemble forecasting at NCEP and the breeding method, Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 3297-3319, 1997.
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    • Toth, Z.1    Kalnay, E.2
  • 14
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    • Operational ensemble prediction at the National Meteorological Center: Practical aspects
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* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.