Climate-based models of spatial patterns of species richness in Egypt's butterfly and mammal fauna

Journal of Biogeography

Volumn 36, Issue 11, 2009, Pages 2085-2095

  Newbold, Tim ^a   Gilbert, Francis ^a,b   Zalat, Samy ^b,c   El Gabbas, Ahmed ^b   Reader, Tom ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF NOTTINGHAM   (United Kingdom)

^b Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency   (Egypt)

^c SUEZ CANAL UNIVERSITY   (Egypt)

Author keywords

Arid environment; Biodiversity monitoring; Conservation biogeography; Egypt; Lepidoptera; Mammalia; Maxent; Protected areas; Species distribution models

Indexed keywords

ARID ENVIRONMENT; BIOGEOGRAPHY; BUTTERFLY; CLIMATE MODELING; CORRELATION; DATABASE; ESTIMATION METHOD; FAUNA; MAMMAL; POPULATION DISTRIBUTION; SPATIAL ANALYSIS; SPECIES RICHNESS;

AFRICA; EGYPT; NORTH AFRICA;

LEPIDOPTERA; MAMMALIA; PAPILIONOIDEA;

EID: 70350132679     PISSN: 03050270     EISSN: 13652699     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2699.2009.02140.x     Document Type: Article

References (56)

1. Algar, A.C., Kerr, J.T. Currie, D.J. (2007) A test of Metabolic Theory as the mechanism underlying broad-scale species-richness gradients. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 16, 170 178.
2. Anderson, R.P., Gómez-Laverde, M. Peterson, A.T. (2002) Geographical distributions of spiny pocket mice in South America: insights from predictive models. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 11, 131 141.
3. Anderson, R.P., Lew, D. Peterson, A.T. (2003) Evaluating predictive models of species' distributions: criteria for selecting optimal models. Ecological Modelling, 162, 211 232.
4. Andrews, P. O'Brien, E.M. (2000) Climate, vegetation, and predictable gradients in mammal species richness in southern Africa. Journal of Zoology, 251, 205 231.
5. Araújo, M.B. Luoto, M. (2007) The importance of biotic interactions for modelling species distributions under climate change. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 16, 743 753.
6. Beale, C.M., Lennon, J.J. Gimona, A. (2008) Opening the climate envelope reveals no macroscale associations with climate in European birds. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 105, 14908 14912.
7. Beyer, H.L. (2004) Hawth's analysis tools for ArcGIS. Available at: http://www.spatialecology.com/htools/ (last accessed 3 February 2009).
8. Chape, S., Harrison, J., Spalding, M. Lysenko, I. (2005) Measuring the extent and effectiveness of protected areas as an indicator for meeting global biodiversity targets. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 360, 443 455.
9. Convention on Biological Diversity (2002) The 2010 biodiversity target. Available at: http://www.cbd.int/2010-target/ (last accessed 3 February 2009).
10. Crawley, M.J. (2002) Statistical computing: an introduction to data analysis using S-Plus. John Wiley & Sons, New York.
11. Currie, D.J., Mittelbach, G.G., Cornell, H.V., Field, R., Guégan, J.F., Hawkins, B.A., Kaufman, D.M., Kerr, J.T., Oberdorff, T., O'Brien, E. Turner, J.R.G. (2004) Predictions and tests of climate-based hypotheses of broad-scale variation in taxonomic richness. Ecology Letters, 7, 1121 1134.
12. Dudík, M., Phillips, S.J. Schapire, R.E. (2004) Performance guarantees for regularized maximum entropy density estimation. Proceedings of the 17th Annual Conference on Computational Learning Theory (ed. by J. Shawe-Taylor Y. Singer pp. 472 486. Springer, Berlin.
13. Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency (2007) Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency - protectorates. Available at: http://www.eeaa.gov.eg/English/ main/protect-desc.asp (last accessed 3 February 2009).
14. Elith, J., Graham, C.H., Anderson, R.P., Dudík, M., Ferrier, S., Guisan, A., Hijmans, R.J., Huettmann, F., Leathwick, J.R., Lehmann, A., Li, J., Lohmann, L.G., Loiselle, B.A., Manion, G., Moritz, C., Nakamura, M., Nakazawa, Y., Overton, J.M., Peterson, A.T., Phillips, S.J., Richardson, K., Scachetti-Pereira, R., Schapire, R.E., Soberón, J., Williams, S., Wisz, M.S. Zimmermann, N.E. (2006) Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data. Ecography, 29, 129 151.
15. Evans, K.L., Rodrigues, A.S.L., Chown, S.L. Gaston, K.J. (2006) Protected areas and regional avian species richness in South Africa. Biology Letters, 2, 184 188.
16. Field, R., Hawkins, B.A., Cornell, H.V., Currie, D.J., Diniz-Filho, J.A.F., Guégan, J.F., Kaufman, D.M., Kerr, J.T., Mittelbach, G.G., Oberdorff, T., O'Brien, E.M. Turner, J.R.G. (2009) Spatial species-richness gradients across scales: a meta-analysis. Journal of Biogeography, 36, 132 147.
17. Garcia, A. (2006) Using ecological niche modelling to identify diversity hotspots for the herpetofauna of Pacific lowlands and adjacent interior valleys of Mexico. Biological Conservation, 130, 25 46.
18. Gilbert, F. Zalat, S.M. (2007) Butterflies of Egypt: atlas, Red Data listing and conservation. Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency, Cairo.
19. Gioia, P. Pigott, J.P. (2000) Biodiversity assessment: a case study in predicting richness from the potential distributions of plant species in the forests of south-western Australia. Journal of Biogeography, 27, 1065 1078.
20. Grenyer, R., Orme, C.D.L., Jackson, S.F., Thomas, G.H., Davies, R.G., Davies, T.J., Jones, K.E., Olson, V.A., Ridgely, R.S., Rasmussen, P.C., Ding, T.S., Bennett, P.M., Blackburn, T.M., Gaston, K.J., Gittleman, J.L. Owens, I.P.F. (2006) Global distribution and conservation of rare and threatened vertebrates. Nature, 444, 93 96.
21. Hanski, I. (1991) Single-species metapopulation dynamics - concepts, models and observations. Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 42, 17 38.
22. Hawkins, B.A., Field, R., Cornell, H.V., Currie, D.J., Guégan, J.F., Kaufman, D.M., Kerr, J.T., Mittelbach, G.G., Oberdorff, T., O'Brien, E.M., Porter, E.E. Turner, J.R.G. (2003) Energy, water, and broad-scale geographic patterns of species richness. Ecology, 84, 3105 3117.
23. Hijmans, R.J., Cameron, S.E., Parra, J.L., Jones, P.G. Jarvis, A. (2005) Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology, 25, 1965 1978.
24. Jenks, G.F. (1967) Visualizing statistical distributions and generalizing process. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 57, 179.
25. Kershaw, M., Mace, G.M. Williams, P.H. (1995) Threatened status, rarity and diversity as alternative selection measures for protected areas - a test using Afrotropical antelopes. Conservation Biology, 9, 324 334.
26. Kivinen, S., Luoto, M., Kuussaari, M. Saarinen, K.M. (2007) Effects of land cover and climate on species richness of butterflies in boreal agricultural landscapes. Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment, 122, 453 460.
27. Kuussaari, M., Heliölä, J., Luoto, M. Pöyry, J. (2007) Determinants of local species richness of diurnal Lepidoptera in boreal agricultural landscapes. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 122, 366 376. (Pubitemid 46907297)
28. Larsen, T.B. (1990) The butterflies of Egypt. The American University Press, Cairo.
29. Lee, T.M., Sodhi, N.S. Prawiradilaga, D.M. (2007) The importance of protected areas for the forest and endemic avifauna of Sulawesi (Indonesia). Ecological Applications, 17, 1727 1741.
30. Levinsky, I., Skov, F., Svenning, J.-C. Rahbek, C. (2007) Potential impacts of climate change on the distributions and diversity patterns of European mammals. Biodiversity and Conservation, 16, 3803 3816.
31. MacKenzie, D.I., Nichols, J.D., Lachman, G.B., Droege, S., Royle, J.A. Langtimm, C.A. (2002) Estimating site occupancy rates when detection probabilities are less than one. Ecology, 83, 2248 2255.
32. Manel, S., Williams, H.C. Ormerod, S.J. (2001) Evaluating presence-absence models in ecology: the need to account for prevalence. Journal of Applied Ecology, 38, 921 931.
33. Margules, C.R. Pressey, R.L. (2000) Systematic conservation planning. Nature, 405, 243 253.
34. Martin, T.G., Wintle, B.A., Rhodes, J.R., Kuhnert, P.M., Field, S.A., Low-Choy, S.J., Tyre, A.J. Possingham, H.P. (2005) Zero tolerance ecology: improving ecological inference by modelling the source of zero observations. Ecology Letters, 8, 1235 1246.
35. McCullagh, P. Nelder, J.A. (1989) Generalized linear models. Chapman & Hall, London.
36. Nogués-Bravo, D. Araújo, M.B. (2006) Species richness, area and climate correlates. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 15, 452 460.
37. Osborn, D.J. Helmy, I. (1980) The contemporary land mammals of Egypt (including Sinai). Fieldiana Zoology, 5, 1 579.
38. Pawar, S., Koo, M.S., Kelley, C., Ahmed, M.F., Chaudhuri, S. Sarkay, S. (2007) Conservation assessment and prioritization of areas in Northeast India: priorities for amphibians and reptiles. Biological Conservation, 136, 346 361.
39. Pearson, R.G., Dawson, T.P. Liu, C. (2004) Modelling species distributions in Britain: a hierarchical integration of climate and land-cover data. Ecography, 27, 285 298.
40. Phillips, S.J., Anderson, R.P. Schapire, R.E. (2006) Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecological Modelling, 190, 231 259.
41. Qian, H. (2007) Relationships between plant and animal species richness at a regional scale in China. Conservation Biology, 21, 937 944. (Pubitemid 47078905)
42. Qian, H. Ricklefs, R.E. (2000) Large-scale processes and the Asian bias in species diversity of temperate plants. Nature, 407, 180 182.
43. R Development Core Team (2004) R: A language and environment for statistical computing. Available at: http://www.r-project.org/ (last accessed 3 February 2009).
44. van Rensburg, B.J., Chown, S.L. Gaston, K.J. (2002) Species richness, environmental correlates, and spatial scale: a test using South African birds. The American Naturalist, 159, 566 577.
45. Schmidt, M., König, K. Müller, J.V. (2008) Modelling species richness and life form composition in Sahelian Burkina Faso with remote sensing data. Journal of Arid Environments, 72, 1506 1517.
46. Stockwell, D. Peters, D. (1999) The GARP modelling system: problems and solutions to automated spatial prediction. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 13, 143 158.
47. Swets, J.A. (1986) Indexes of discrimination or diagnostic-accuracy - their ROCs and implied models. Psychological Bulletin, 99, 100 117.
48. Traba, J., de la Morena, E.L.G., Morales, M.B. Suárez, F. (2007) Determining high value areas for steppe birds in Spain: hot spots, complementarity and the efficiency of protected areas. Biodiversity and Conservation, 16, 3255 3275.
49. Turner, J.R.G., Gatehouse, C.M. Corey, C.A. (1987) Does solar energy control organic diversity? Butterflies, moths and the British climate. Oikos, 48, 195 205.
50. Uehara-Prado, M., Brown, K.S. Freitas, A.V.L. (2007) Species richness, composition and abundance of fruit-feeding butterflies in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest: comparison between a fragmented and a continuous landscape. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 16, 43 54.
51. Venables, W.N. Ripley, B.D. (2002) Modern applied statistics with S. Springer, Berlin.
52. Whittaker, R.J., Willis, K.J. Field, R. (2001) Scale and species richness: towards a general, hierarchical theory of species diversity. Journal of Biogeography, 28, 453 470.
53. Wieczorek, J., Guo, Q. Hijmans, R.J. (2004) The point-radius method for georeferencing locality descriptions and calculating associated uncertainty. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 18, 745 767.
54. Wilson, D.E. Reeder, D.M. (2005) Mammal species of the world: a taxonomic and geographic reference, 3rd edn. Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore.
55. Wilson, K.A., Underwood, E.C., Morrison, S.A., Klausmeyer, K.R., Murdoch, W.W., Reyers, B., Wardell-Johnson, G., Marquet, P.A., Rundel, P.W., McBride, M.F., Pressey, R.L., Bode, M., Hoekstra, J.M., Andelman, S., Looker, M., Rondinini, C., Kareiva, P., Shaw, M.R. Possingham, H.P. (2007) Conserving biodiversity efficiently: what to do, where, and when. PLoS Biology, 5, 1850 1861.
56. Wintle, B.A., Elith, J. Potts, J.M. (2005) Fauna habitat modelling and mapping: a review and case study in the Lower Hunter Central Coast region of NSW. Austral Ecology, 30, 719 738.