메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 54, Issue 14, 2009, Pages 2516-2523

ENSO ensemble prediction: Initial error perturbations vs. model error perturbations

Author keywords

Ensemble prediction; ENSO; Initial error perturbation; Model error perturbation; Predictability

Indexed keywords


EID: 70349334318     PISSN: 10016538     EISSN: 18619541     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s11434-009-0179-2     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (25)

References (28)
  • 1
    • 3042674339 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A new approach to study ENSO predictability: Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation
    • Mu M, Duan W S. A new approach to study ENSO predictability: Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation. Chin Sci Bull, 2003, 48: 1045-1047
    • (2003) Chin Sci Bull , vol.48 , pp. 1045-1047
    • Mu, M.1    Duan, W.S.2
  • 2
    • 1942520295 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predictability of El Niño in the past 148 years
    • Chen D, Cane M A, Kaplan A, et al. Predictability of El Niño in the past 148 years. Nature, 2004, 428: 733-736
    • (2004) Nature , vol.428 , pp. 733-736
    • Chen, D.1    Cane, M.A.2    Kaplan, A.3
  • 3
    • 0034352698 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bias correction of an ocean-atmosphere coupled model
    • Chen D, Cane M A, Zebiak S E, et al. Bias correction of an ocean-atmosphere coupled model. Geophys Res Lett, 2000, 27: 2585-2588
    • (2000) Geophys Res Lett , vol.27 , pp. 2585-2588
    • Chen, D.1    Cane, M.A.2    Zebiak, S.E.3
  • 4
    • 0032881304 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Stochastic forcing of ENSO by the intraseasonal oscillation
    • Moore A M, Kleeman R. Stochastic forcing of ENSO by the intraseasonal oscillation. J Climate, 1999, 12: 1199-1220
    • (1999) J Climate , vol.12 , pp. 1199-1220
    • Moore, A.M.1    Kleeman, R.2
  • 5
    • 12444272696 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Zavala-Garay J, Moore A M, Kleeman R. Influence of stochastic forcing on ENSO prediction. J Geophys Res, 2004, 109: C11007, doi: 10.1029/2004JC002406
    • Zavala-Garay J, Moore A M, Kleeman R. Influence of stochastic forcing on ENSO prediction. J Geophys Res, 2004, 109: C11007, doi: 10.1029/2004JC002406
  • 6
    • 3543083343 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Development of a European multi-model ensemble system for seasonal to inter-annual prediction
    • Palmer T N, Alessandri A, Andersen U, et al. Development of a European multi-model ensemble system for seasonal to inter-annual prediction. Bull Am Meteorol Soc, 2004, 85: 853-872
    • (2004) Bull am Meteorol Soc , vol.85 , pp. 853-872
    • Palmer, T.N.1    Alessandri, A.2    Andersen, U.3
  • 7
    • 0028184125 scopus 로고
    • El Niño chaos: Overlapping of resonances between the seasonal cycle and the Pacific oceanatmosphere oscillator
    • Tziperman E, Stone L, Cane M A, et al. El Niño chaos: Overlapping of resonances between the seasonal cycle and the Pacific oceanatmosphere oscillator. Science, 1994, 264: 72-74
    • (1994) Science , vol.264 , pp. 72-74
    • Tziperman, E.1    Stone, L.2    Cane, M.A.3
  • 8
    • 0032577947 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A review of the predictability and prediction of ENSO
    • Latif M, Anderson D, Barnett T, et al. A review of the predictability and prediction of ENSO. J Geophys Res, 1998, 103: 14375-14393
    • (1998) J Geophys Res , vol.103 , pp. 14375-14393
    • Latif, M.1    Anderson, D.2    Barnett, T.3
  • 9
    • 20544469481 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Representing model uncertainty in weather and climate prediction
    • Palmer T N, Shutts G J, Hagedorn R, et al. Representing model uncertainty in weather and climate prediction. Annu Rev Earth Planet Sci, 2005, 33: 163-193
    • (2005) Annu Rev Earth Planet Sci , vol.33 , pp. 163-193
    • Palmer, T.N.1    Shutts, G.J.2    Hagedorn, R.3
  • 10
    • 0242415378 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The COLA anomaly coupled model: Ensemble ENSO prediction
    • Kirtman P B. The COLA anomaly coupled model: Ensemble ENSO prediction. Mon Wea Rev, 2003, 131: 2324-2341
    • (2003) Mon Wea Rev , vol.131 , pp. 2324-2341
    • Kirtman, P.B.1
  • 11
    • 70349308465 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Beijing: Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
    • Zheng F. Researches on ENSO ensemble predictions (in Chinese). Dissertation for the Doctoral Degree. Beijing: Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2007. 66-75
    • (2007) Researches on ENSO Ensemble Predictions (in Chinese) , pp. 66-75
    • Zheng, F.1
  • 12
    • 70349309584 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The verifications for ENSO ensemble prediction system (in Chinese)
    • Zheng F, Zhu J, Wang H. The verifications for ENSO ensemble prediction system (in Chinese). Clim Environ Res, 2007, 12: 587-594
    • (2007) Clim Environ Res , vol.12 , pp. 587-594
    • Zheng, F.1    Zhu, J.2    Wang, H.3
  • 13
    • 31644434197 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Future scientific directions: Predictability
    • Hacker J, Hansen J, Berner J, et al. Future scientific directions: Predictability. Bull Amer Meteorol Soc, 2005, 86: 1733-1737
    • (2005) Bull Amer Meteorol Soc , vol.86 , pp. 1733-1737
    • Hacker, J.1    Hansen, J.2    Berner, J.3
  • 14
    • 27144531608 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Retrospective El Niño forecast using an improved intermediate coupled model
    • Zhang R H, Zebiak S E, Kleeman R, et al. Retrospective El Niño forecast using an improved intermediate coupled model. Mon Weather Rev, 2005, 133: 2777-2802
    • (2005) Mon Weather Rev , vol.133 , pp. 2777-2802
    • Zhang, R.H.1    Zebiak, S.E.2    Kleeman, R.3
  • 15
    • 84884550570 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The ensemble Kalman filter: Theoretical formulation and practical implementation
    • Evensen G. The ensemble Kalman filter: Theoretical formulation and practical implementation. Ocean Dyn, 2003, 53: 343-367
    • (2003) Ocean Dyn , vol.53 , pp. 343-367
    • Evensen, G.1
  • 16
    • 3242698027 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Improved extended reconstruction of SST (1854-1997)
    • Smith T M, Reynolds R W. Improved extended reconstruction of SST (1854-1997). J Climate, 2004, 17: 2466-2477
    • (2004) J Climate , vol.17 , pp. 2466-2477
    • Smith, T.M.1    Reynolds, R.W.2
  • 17
    • 0033569013 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Tropical Pacific near-surface currents estimated from altimeter, wind, and drifter data
    • Lagerloef G S E, Mitchum G, Lukas R, et al. Tropical Pacific near-surface currents estimated from altimeter, wind, and drifter data. J Geophys Res, 1999, 104: 23313-23326
    • (1999) J Geophys Res , vol.104 , pp. 23313-23326
    • Lagerloef, G.S.E.1    Mitchum, G.2    Lukas, R.3
  • 18
    • 34548634390 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Zheng F, Zhu J, Zhang R H. Impact of altimetry data on ENSO ensemble initializations and predictions. Geophys Res Lett, 2007, 34: L13611, doi: 10.1029/2007GL030451
    • Zheng F, Zhu J, Zhang R H. Impact of altimetry data on ENSO ensemble initializations and predictions. Geophys Res Lett, 2007, 34: L13611, doi: 10.1029/2007GL030451
  • 19
    • 34047219706 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Zheng F, Zhu J, Zhang R H, et al. Ensemble hindcasts of SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific using an intermediate coupled model. Geophys Res Lett, 2006, 33: L19604, doi: 10.1029/2006GL026994
    • Zheng F, Zhu J, Zhang R H, et al. Ensemble hindcasts of SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific using an intermediate coupled model. Geophys Res Lett, 2006, 33: L19604, doi: 10.1029/2006GL026994
  • 20
    • 51749126074 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Zheng F, Zhu J. Balanced multivariate model errors of an intermediate coupled model for ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation. J Geophys Res, 2008, 113: C07002, doi: 10.1029/2007JC004621
    • Zheng F, Zhu J. Balanced multivariate model errors of an intermediate coupled model for ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation. J Geophys Res, 2008, 113: C07002, doi: 10.1029/2007JC004621
  • 21
    • 0033208324 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Conditional probabilities, relative operating characteristics, and relative operating levels
    • Mason S J, Graham N E. Conditional probabilities, relative operating characteristics, and relative operating levels. Weather Forecasting, 1999, 14: 713-725
    • (1999) Weather Forecasting , vol.14 , pp. 713-725
    • Mason, S.J.1    Graham, N.E.2
  • 22
    • 42549169393 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Tang Y M, Lin H, Moore A M. Measuring the potential predictability of ensemble climate predictions. J Geophys Res, 2008, 113: D04108, doi: 10.1029/2007JD008804
    • Tang Y M, Lin H, Moore A M. Measuring the potential predictability of ensemble climate predictions. J Geophys Res, 2008, 113: D04108, doi: 10.1029/2007JD008804
  • 23
    • 0001951998 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluation of short-term climate prediction (in Chinese)
    • Wang S W, Zhu J H. Evaluation of short-term climate prediction (in Chinese). Quart J Appl Meteor, 2000, 11(S1): 2-11
    • (2000) Quart J Appl Meteor , vol.11 , Issue.S1 , pp. 2-11
    • Wang, S.W.1    Zhu, J.H.2
  • 24
    • 27744497368 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Applications of nonlinear optimization methods to quantifying the predictability of a numerical model for El Niño-Southern Oscillation
    • Duan W S, Mu M. Applications of nonlinear optimization methods to quantifying the predictability of a numerical model for El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Prog Nat Sci, 2005, 15: 915-921
    • (2005) Prog Nat Sci , vol.15 , pp. 915-921
    • Duan, W.S.1    Mu, M.2
  • 25
    • 34547150648 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Mu M, Duan W S, Wang B. Seasondependent dynamics of nonlinear optimal error growth and ENSO predictability in a theoretical model. J Geophys Res, 2007, 112: D10113, doi: 10.1029/2005JD006981
    • Mu M, Duan W S, Wang B. Seasondependent dynamics of nonlinear optimal error growth and ENSO predictability in a theoretical model. J Geophys Res, 2007, 112: D10113, doi: 10.1029/2005JD006981
  • 26
    • 0030448959 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The dynamics of error growth and predictability in a coupled model of ENSO
    • Moore A M, Kleeman R. The dynamics of error growth and predictability in a coupled model of ENSO. Quart J Roy Meteor Soc, 1996, 122: 1405-1446
    • (1996) Quart J Roy Meteor Soc , vol.122 , pp. 1405-1446
    • Moore, A.M.1    Kleeman, R.2
  • 27
    • 0032694914 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A new method for determining the reliability of dynamical ENSO predictions
    • Kleeman R, Moore A M. A new method for determining the reliability of dynamical ENSO predictions. Mon Weather Rev, 1999, 127: 694-705
    • (1999) Mon Weather Rev , vol.127 , pp. 694-705
    • Kleeman, R.1    Moore, A.M.2
  • 28
    • 33646756214 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • ENSO bred vectors in coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models
    • Yang S C, Cai M, Kalnay E, et al. ENSO bred vectors in coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models. J Climate, 2005, 19: 1422-1436
    • (2005) J Climate , vol.19 , pp. 1422-1436
    • Yang, S.C.1    Cai, M.2    Kalnay, E.3


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.