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Volumn 39, Issue 3, 2009, Pages 609-631

Partisan dynamics and the volatility of presidential approval

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EID: 67749105992     PISSN: 00071234     EISSN: 14692112     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1017/S0007123409000647     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (23)

References (129)
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    • Such a strategy may have made sense in 2004 when Bush's approval hovered in the low 50s. By contrast, in January 2007, with his approval mired in the low 30s, Bush shifted strategies. In his 2007 'State of the Union Address', the president proposed a number of policies designed not to minimize the variance in his support, but to appeal to moderates in the hopes of increasing it, even if some of his initiatives, such as comprehensive immigration reform, may raise approval volatility among his core supporters.
    • Such a strategy may have made sense in 2004 when Bush's approval hovered in the low 50s. By contrast, in January 2007, with his approval mired in the low 30s, Bush shifted strategies. In his 2007 'State of the Union Address', the president proposed a number of policies designed not to minimize the variance in his support, but to appeal to moderates in the hopes of increasing it, even if some of his initiatives, such as comprehensive immigration reform, may raise approval volatility among his core supporters.
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    • Of course, if the mean level of support for the president was exactly 50 per cent and the other 50 per cent unanimously supported his opponent, reducing the variance would only affect the likely margin of victory or defeat, not its probability. However, if the mean level of support was in the low 50s, or if support for the president's chief rival was less than 50 per cent, then reducing the variance in support, absent any change in the mean, could greatly increase the president's probability of receiving more support than his opponent. To some extent, these dynamics mirror an important strand of literature on congressional elections. For example, Thomas Mann argues that the growing personal incumbency advantage of Members of Congress has not resulted in significantly lower turnover rates in Congress in recent decades because, while the mean margin of victory has increased, so, too, has the variance in congressional vote swings Thomas Mann, Unsafe at Any Margin: Interpreting Congres
    • Of course, if the mean level of support for the president was exactly 50 per cent and the other 50 per cent unanimously supported his opponent, reducing the variance would only affect the likely margin of victory or defeat, not its probability. However, if the mean level of support was in the low 50s, or if support for the president's chief rival was less than 50 per cent, then reducing the variance in support, absent any change in the mean, could greatly increase the president's probability of receiving more support than his opponent. To some extent, these dynamics mirror an important strand of literature on congressional elections. For example, Thomas Mann argues that the growing personal incumbency advantage of Members of Congress has not resulted in significantly lower turnover rates in Congress in recent decades because, while the mean margin of victory has increased, so, too, has the variance in congressional vote swings (Thomas Mann, Unsafe at Any Margin: Interpreting Congressional Elections (Washington, D.C.: American Enterprise Institute, 1978)). Even as the average margin of victory grows, because the variance is also increasing, the electoral risks incumbents face also rise.
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    • A third school of thought embraces an on-line processing or running tally model, suggesting that individuals process additional information as it arises and use it to update their prior opinions on a given topic. See Milton Lodge, Kathleen McGraw and Patrick Stroh, 'An Impression-Driven Model of Candidate Evaluation', American Political Science Review, 83 (1989), 399-420;
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    • In this model, conflicting considerations should not affect the variance in individuals' responses, but only the mean level of individuals' responses
    • Milton Lodge, Marco Steenbergen and Shawn Brau, 'The Responsive Voter: Campaign Information and the Dynamics of Candidate Evaluation', American Political Science Review, 89 (1995), 309-26. In this model, conflicting considerations should not affect the variance in individuals' responses, but only the mean level of individuals' responses.
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    • Others have stressed the importance of uncertainty, in addition to and distinct from ambivalence, in driving response variance see Alvarez and Franklin, 'Uncertainty and Political Perceptions';
    • Others have stressed the importance of uncertainty, in addition to and distinct from ambivalence, in driving response variance (see Alvarez and Franklin, 'Uncertainty and Political Perceptions';
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    • R. Michael Alvarez and John Brehm, Are Americans Ambivalent Towards Racial Policies, American Journal of Political Science, 41 (1997, 345-74, Indeed, an uncertainty perspective may explain the high base level of variance (relative to the average approval variance for members of the president's party) observed for independents' support of the president, as they lack strong predispositions to guide their approval responses and hence may be less certain in their evaluations than partisan identifiers. We discuss uncertainty as a possible source of approval variance further when we discuss our reasons for adding a 'month of term' variable to track changes in variance over the course of a presidential administration. However, because our theory emphasizes the way in which various positive and negative events reinforce or conflict with partisan predispositions, we focus here on conflicting considerations and ambivalence
    • R. Michael Alvarez and John Brehm, 'Are Americans Ambivalent Towards Racial Policies?' American Journal of Political Science, 41 (1997), 345-74). Indeed, an uncertainty perspective may explain the high base level of variance (relative to the average approval variance for members of the president's party) observed for independents' support of the president, as they lack strong predispositions to guide their approval responses and hence may be less certain in their evaluations than partisan identifiers. We discuss uncertainty as a possible source of approval variance further when we discuss our reasons for adding a 'month of term' variable to track changes in variance over the course of a presidential administration. However, because our theory emphasizes the way in which various positive and negative events reinforce or conflict with partisan predispositions, we focus here on conflicting considerations and ambivalence.
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    • Partisan attachments, reinforced by self-selection of media sources, may also dramatically shape how individuals view the same events (see Larry Bartels, 'Beyond the Running Tally: Partisan Bias in Political Perceptions', Political Behavior, 24 (2002), 117-50). However, we contend that while there is some room for differences in interpretation of high combat casualties and positive or negative rally events, there is enough of an objective basis on which most can agree that these developments either reflect positively or negatively upon the president and his administration.
    • Partisan attachments, reinforced by self-selection of media sources, may also dramatically shape how individuals view the same events (see Larry Bartels, 'Beyond the Running Tally: Partisan Bias in Political Perceptions', Political Behavior, 24 (2002), 117-50). However, we contend that while there is some room for differences in interpretation of high combat casualties and positive or negative rally events, there is enough of an objective basis on which most can agree that these developments either reflect positively or negatively upon the president and his administration.
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    • In a similar vein, Paul Sniderman and Edward Carmines explore whether liberals who hold negative stereotypes of blacks are more ambivalent when asked their support for government assistance to 'blacks and minorities' than when asked their support for assistance to 'new immigrants from Europe, Measuring ambivalence as the time it takes to respond to the survey question, Sniderman and Carmines demonstrate that this group was more ambivalent when the question triggered their conflicting liberalism and racial stereotypes than when the question queried support for aiding white immigrants and therefore did not trigger an underlying value conflict (Paul Sniderman and Edward Carmines, Reaching Beyond Race Cambridge, Mass, Harvard University Press, 1997, pp. 84-9
    • In a similar vein, Paul Sniderman and Edward Carmines explore whether liberals who hold negative stereotypes of blacks are more ambivalent when asked their support for government assistance to 'blacks and minorities' than when asked their support for assistance to 'new immigrants from Europe'. Measuring ambivalence as the time it takes to respond to the survey question, Sniderman and Carmines demonstrate that this group was more ambivalent when the question triggered their conflicting liberalism and racial stereotypes than when the question queried support for aiding white immigrants and therefore did not trigger an underlying value conflict (Paul Sniderman and Edward Carmines, Reaching Beyond Race (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1997), pp. 84-9).
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    • Before proceeding to the empirical work, a caveat regarding ecological inference is in order. Our hypotheses for positive and negative developments' effects on approval volatility are based on assumptions about how these developments will affect cognitive processes at the individual level. However, any inferences drawn from patterns in volatility at the aggregate level about micro-foundations are potentially suspect. That is, even if we observe approval volatility at the aggregate level responding in the predicted ways, we cannot claim this is evidence for the hypothesized cognitive processes at the individual level. As a result, after discussing the aggregate level results we shift to an analysis of individual level panel data in the next section. Moreover, previous studies of variance in approval at the individual level have confirmed the importance of conflicting considerations and ambivalence emphasized here Gronke, Policies, Prototypes, and Presidential Approval';
    • Before proceeding to the empirical work, a caveat regarding ecological inference is in order. Our hypotheses for positive and negative developments' effects on approval volatility are based on assumptions about how these developments will affect cognitive processes at the individual level. However, any inferences drawn from patterns in volatility at the aggregate level about micro-foundations are potentially suspect. That is, even if we observe approval volatility at the aggregate level responding in the predicted ways, we cannot claim this is evidence for the hypothesized cognitive processes at the individual level. As a result, after discussing the aggregate level results we shift to an analysis of individual level panel data in the next section. Moreover, previous studies of variance in approval at the individual level have confirmed the importance of conflicting considerations and ambivalence emphasized here (Gronke, 'Policies, Prototypes, and Presidential Approval';
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    • as has recent work on the sources of volatility in partisan identification (Keele and Wolak, 'Value Conflict and Volatility in Party Identification').
    • as has recent work on the sources of volatility in partisan identification (Keele and Wolak, 'Value Conflict and Volatility in Party Identification').
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    • R. Michael Alvarez and John Brehm, 'American Ambivalence Towards Abortion Policy: Development of a Heteroscedastic Probit Model of Competing Values', American Journal of Political Science, 39 (1995), 1055-82;
    • (1995) American Journal of Political Science , vol.39 , pp. 1055-1082
    • Michael Alvarez, R.1    Brehm, J.2
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    • Alvarez and Brehm, 'Are Americans Ambivalent Towards Racial Policies?' Alvarez and Brehm, Hard Choices, Easy Answers;
    • Alvarez and Brehm, 'Are Americans Ambivalent Towards Racial Policies?' Alvarez and Brehm, Hard Choices, Easy Answers;
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    • 67749147492 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Keele and Wolak, 'Value Conflict and Volatility in Party Identification'.
    • Keele and Wolak, 'Value Conflict and Volatility in Party Identification'.
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    • 77957179238 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Comparing Dynamic Specifications: The Case of Presidential Approval
    • For advances in the presidential approval literature, see
    • For advances in the presidential approval literature, see Nathaniel Beck, 'Comparing Dynamic Specifications: The Case of Presidential Approval', Political Analysis, 3 (1991), 51-88;
    • (1991) Political Analysis , vol.3 , pp. 51-88
    • Beck, N.1
  • 75
    • 67749111875 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Matthew Lebo, ed., 'Advances in the Analysis of Political Time Series', Special of Electoral Studies, 19 (2000), 1-110, p. 1;
    • Matthew Lebo, ed., 'Advances in the Analysis of Political Time Series', Special Volume of Electoral Studies, 19 (2000), 1-110, p. 1;
  • 76
    • 0034215281 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Weak Theories and Parameter Instability: Using Flexible Least Squares to Take Time Varying Relationships Seriously
    • B. Dan Wood, 'Weak Theories and Parameter Instability: Using Flexible Least Squares to Take Time Varying Relationships Seriously', American Journal of Political Science, 44 (2000), 603-18;
    • (2000) American Journal of Political Science , vol.44 , pp. 603-618
    • Dan Wood, B.1
  • 77
    • 1642299399 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • International Economy and Presidential Approval
    • Barry Burden and Anthony Mughan, 'International Economy and Presidential Approval', Public Opinion Quarterly, 67 (2003), 555-78.
    • (2003) Public Opinion Quarterly , vol.67 , pp. 555-578
    • Burden, B.1    Mughan, A.2
  • 78
    • 0742304007 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • From FDR to Clinton, From Mueller to ?: A Field Essay on Presidential Approval
    • For a review, see
    • For a review, see Paul Gronke and Brian Newman, 'From FDR to Clinton, From Mueller to ?: A Field Essay on Presidential Approval', Political Research Quarterly, 56 (2003), 501-12.
    • (2003) Political Research Quarterly , vol.56 , pp. 501-512
    • Gronke, P.1    Newman, B.2
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    • A Heteroscedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroscedasticity
    • On heteroscedasticity-consistent standard errors, see
    • On heteroscedasticity-consistent standard errors, see Halbert White, 'A Heteroscedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroscedasticity', Econometrica, 48 (1980), 817-38.
    • (1980) Econometrica , vol.48 , pp. 817-838
    • White, H.1
  • 80
    • 67749088530 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Gronke and Brehm, 'History, Heterogeneity, and Presidential Approval';
    • Gronke and Brehm, 'History, Heterogeneity, and Presidential Approval';
  • 82
    • 67749144111 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Gronke and Brehm, 'History, Heterogeneity, and Presidential Approval'; for example, Gronke and Brehm find no influence for two broad categories of positive and negative effects on approval variance, but a positive relationship between the percentage of the electorate identifying as independents at a given time and approval volatility. When disaggregating the event categories into eight categories, they find significant negative effects for adverse economic events and domestic accomplishments, but the coefficient for independent identifiers is no longer statistically significant.
    • Gronke and Brehm, 'History, Heterogeneity, and Presidential Approval'; for example, Gronke and Brehm find no influence for two broad categories of positive and negative effects on approval variance, but a positive relationship between the percentage of the electorate identifying as independents at a given time and approval volatility. When disaggregating the event categories into eight categories, they find significant negative effects for adverse economic events and domestic accomplishments, but the coefficient for independent identifiers is no longer statistically significant.
  • 83
    • 0033247101 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Because the sample sizes are considerably smaller, a handful of one-day polls conducted by Gallup, primarily from the Clinton era, were dropped. Re-estimating the models with these polls in the sample yields very similar results. As a robustness check, all models were also re-estimated using Kalman filtered approval data (Donald Green, Alan Gerber, and Suzanna De Boef, 'Tracking Opinion over Time: A Method for Reducing Sample Error', Public Opinion Quarterly, 63 (1999), 178-92) with very similar results across specifications.
    • Because the sample sizes are considerably smaller, a handful of one-day polls conducted by Gallup, primarily from the Clinton era, were dropped. Re-estimating the models with these polls in the sample yields very similar results. As a robustness check, all models were also re-estimated using Kalman filtered approval data (Donald Green, Alan Gerber, and Suzanna De Boef, 'Tracking Opinion over Time: A Method for Reducing Sample Error', Public Opinion Quarterly, 63 (1999), 178-92) with very similar results across specifications.
  • 84
    • 67749099815 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • For rally events, see Brace and Hinckley, 'The Structure of Presidential Approval';
    • For rally events, see Brace and Hinckley, 'The Structure of Presidential Approval';
  • 85
    • 67749142280 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Gronke and Brehm, 'History, Heterogeneity, and Presidential Approval'. Although all of the sources originally used by Brace and Hinckley were not available for the current period, the event series was updated using both the World Almanac and Time Almanac annual chronologies (Time Almanac only after October 2005) following identical coding rules. In examining only Vietnam casualties during the Johnson administration, we follow, inter alia, Gronke and Brehm, 'History, Heterogeneity, and Presidential Approval';
    • Gronke and Brehm, 'History, Heterogeneity, and Presidential Approval'. Although all of the sources originally used by Brace and Hinckley were not available for the current period, the event series was updated using both the World Almanac and Time Almanac annual chronologies (Time Almanac only after October 2005) following identical coding rules. In examining only Vietnam casualties during the Johnson administration, we follow, inter alia, Gronke and Brehm, 'History, Heterogeneity, and Presidential Approval';
  • 86
    • 84971791545 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Michael MacKuen, Robert Erikson and James Stimson, Peasants or Bankers? The American Electorate and the US Economy, American Political Science Review, 86 1992, 597-611. Vietnam casualty information was compiled from the National Archives and Record Administration's Coffelt Database [Records with Unit Information on Military Personnel Who Died During the Vietnam Conflict] and Iraq casualty information obtained from Department of Defense records [http://siadapp.dior.whs.mil/personnel/ CASUALTY/castop.htm, Alternatively, we also replicated our models using a simple dummy variable for each war with virtually identical results. Specifically, both the Vietnam and Iraq dummies were negative and statistically significant in the mean specification for all three partisan series. For the president's co-partisans, the coefficient for both war dummies in the variance equation was positive and statistically significant. For the president's partisan opponents, both war coefficients were n
    • Michael MacKuen, Robert Erikson and James Stimson, 'Peasants or Bankers? The American Electorate and the US Economy', American Political Science Review, 86 (1992), 597-611. Vietnam casualty information was compiled from the National Archives and Record Administration's Coffelt Database [Records with Unit Information on Military Personnel Who Died During the Vietnam Conflict] and Iraq casualty information obtained from Department of Defense records [http://siadapp.dior.whs.mil/personnel/ CASUALTY/castop.htm]. Alternatively, we also replicated our models using a simple dummy variable for each war with virtually identical results. Specifically, both the Vietnam and Iraq dummies were negative and statistically significant in the mean specification for all three partisan series. For the president's co-partisans, the coefficient for both war dummies in the variance equation was positive and statistically significant. For the president's partisan opponents, both war coefficients were negative, though the Vietnam coefficient narrowly failed to meet conventional levels of statistical significance. And neither coefficient was significant in the variance equation for independents. Quarterly Index of Consumer Sentiment data was taken from the University of Michigan's Survey of Consumers.
  • 87
    • 67749144110 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Mueller, War, Presidents, and Public Opinion;
    • Mueller, War, Presidents, and Public Opinion;
  • 88
    • 67749133913 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Eugene Wittkopf, Faces of Internationalism: Public Opinion and American Foreign Policy (Durham, N.C.: Duke University Press, 1990);
    • Eugene Wittkopf, Faces of Internationalism: Public Opinion and American Foreign Policy (Durham, N.C.: Duke University Press, 1990);
  • 89
    • 84971181519 scopus 로고
    • Explaining Presidential Popularity. How Ad Hoc Theorizing, Misplaced Emphasis, and Insufficient Care in Measuring One's Variables Refuted Common Sense and Led Conventional Wisdom Down the Path of Anomalies'
    • Samuel Kernell, 'Explaining Presidential Popularity. How Ad Hoc Theorizing, Misplaced Emphasis, and Insufficient Care in Measuring One's Variables Refuted Common Sense and Led Conventional Wisdom Down the Path of Anomalies', American Political Science Review, 72 (1978), 506-22;
    • (1978) American Political Science Review , vol.72 , pp. 506-522
    • Kernell, S.1
  • 91
    • 67749145678 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Benjamin Schwarz, Casualties, Public Opinion and U.S. Military Intervention: Implications for U.S. Regional Deterrence Strategies (Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND, 1994);
    • Benjamin Schwarz, Casualties, Public Opinion and U.S. Military Intervention: Implications for U.S. Regional Deterrence Strategies (Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND, 1994);
  • 92
    • 0035535191 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Economic Class and Popular Support for Franklin Roosevelt in War and Peace
    • Matthew Baum and Samuel Kernell, 'Economic Class and Popular Support for Franklin Roosevelt in War and Peace', Public Opinion Quarterly, 65 (2001), 198-229.
    • (2001) Public Opinion Quarterly , vol.65 , pp. 198-229
    • Baum, M.1    Kernell, S.2
  • 93
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    • But see Eric Larson, Casualties and Consensus: The Historical Role of Casualties in Domestic Support for U.S. Wars and Military Operations (Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND, 1996);
    • But see Eric Larson, Casualties and Consensus: The Historical Role of Casualties in Domestic Support for U.S. Wars and Military Operations (Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND, 1996);
  • 94
    • 0347259828 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Public Support for Peacekeeping in Lebanon and Somalia: Assessing the Casualties Hypothesis
    • and James Burk, 'Public Support for Peacekeeping in Lebanon and Somalia: Assessing the Casualties Hypothesis', Political Science Quarterly, 114 (1999), 53-78.
    • (1999) Political Science Quarterly , vol.114 , pp. 53-78
    • Burk, J.1
  • 95
    • 33645737727 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Casualty Sensitivity and the War in Iraq
    • Christopher Gelpi, Peter Feaver and Jason Reifler, 'Casualty Sensitivity and the War in Iraq', International Security, 30 (2005), 7-46;
    • (2005) International Security , vol.30 , pp. 7-46
    • Gelpi, C.1    Feaver, P.2    Reifler, J.3
  • 96
    • 33750571666 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • War President: The Approval Ratings of George W. Bush
    • Richard Eichenberg, Richard Stoll and Matthew Lebo, 'War President: The Approval Ratings of George W. Bush', Journal of Conflict Resolution, 50 (2006), 783-808;
    • (2006) Journal of Conflict Resolution , vol.50 , pp. 783-808
    • Eichenberg, R.1    Stoll, R.2    Lebo, M.3
  • 97
    • 33750554503 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Public Opinion, the War in Iraq, and Presidential Accountability
    • Erik Voeten and Paul Brewer, 'Public Opinion, the War in Iraq, and Presidential Accountability', Journal of Conflict Resolution, 50 (2006), 809-30.
    • (2006) Journal of Conflict Resolution , vol.50 , pp. 809-830
    • Voeten, E.1    Brewer, P.2
  • 98
    • 84971921015 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Inter alia, Robert Shapiro and Bruce Conforto, Presidential Performance, the Economy and the Public's Evaluation of Economic Conditions, Journal of Politics, 42 (1980, 49-67. Indeed, MacKuen, Erikson and Stimson have shown that after controlling for public perceptions of economic health, traditional objective measures such as unemployment and inflation are no longer significant predictors of approval (MacKuen, Erikson and Stimson, Peasants or Bankers?, In the past twenty years a growing debate has arisen over whether prospective (MacKuen, Erikson and Stimson, Peasants or Bankers, Robert Erikson, Michael MacKuen and James Stimson, Bankers or Peasants Revisited: Economic Expectations and Presidential Approval, Electoral Studies, 19 (2000, 295-312) or a mix of prospective and retrospective (Harold Clarke and Marianne Stewart, Prospections, Retrospections and Rationality: The 'Bankers' Model of Presidential Approval Reconsidered, 38 (1994, 1104-23) evalua
    • Inter alia, Robert Shapiro and Bruce Conforto, 'Presidential Performance, the Economy and the Public's Evaluation of Economic Conditions', Journal of Politics, 42 (1980), 49-67. Indeed, MacKuen, Erikson and Stimson have shown that after controlling for public perceptions of economic health, traditional objective measures such as unemployment and inflation are no longer significant predictors of approval (MacKuen, Erikson and Stimson, 'Peasants or Bankers?'). In the past twenty years a growing debate has arisen over whether prospective (MacKuen, Erikson and Stimson, 'Peasants or Bankers?' Robert Erikson, Michael MacKuen and James Stimson, 'Bankers or Peasants Revisited: Economic Expectations and Presidential Approval', Electoral Studies, 19 (2000), 295-312) or a mix of prospective and retrospective (Harold Clarke and Marianne Stewart, 'Prospections, Retrospections and Rationality: The 'Bankers' Model of Presidential Approval Reconsidered', 38 (1994), 1104-23) evaluations of the economy best account for movement in the approval series. While these scholars have decomposed the Index of Consumer Sentiment into its constituent parts to examine the relative influence of its prospective and retrospective components, we follow the lead of Burden and Mughan and others and simply include the undifferentiated index as a control (e.g. Burden and Mughan, 'The International Economy and Presidential Approval';
  • 99
    • 67749110312 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Eichenberg, Stoll and Lebo, 'War President'. However, to insure that our results are not sensitive to the operationalization of the economic measures, we re-estimated all of our models in Table 1 first by disaggregating the ICS into its constituent parts and in a second robustness check by also adding the objective measures of unemployment and inflation. When using these disaggregated measures, consistent with MacKuen, Erikson and Stimson, we find that prospective evaluations of expected future economic performance are strong predictors of support for the president. And most importantly, in both alternative specifications all of our substantive findings in the variance equation remain virtually identical to those reported in Table 1.
    • Eichenberg, Stoll and Lebo, 'War President'). However, to insure that our results are not sensitive to the operationalization of the economic measures, we re-estimated all of our models in Table 1 first by disaggregating the ICS into its constituent parts and in a second robustness check by also adding the objective measures of unemployment and inflation. When using these disaggregated measures, consistent with MacKuen, Erikson and Stimson, we find that prospective evaluations of expected future economic performance are strong predictors of support for the president. And most importantly, in both alternative specifications all of our substantive findings in the variance equation remain virtually identical to those reported in Table 1.
  • 101
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    • Promise and Performance: A Dynamic Model of Presidential Popularity
    • Charles Ostrom and Dennis Simon, 'Promise and Performance: A Dynamic Model of Presidential Popularity', American Political Science Review, 79 (1985), 334-58;
    • (1985) American Political Science Review , vol.79 , pp. 334-358
    • Ostrom, C.1    Simon, D.2
  • 102
    • 67749089481 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Brace and Hinckley, 'The Structure of Presidential Approval';
    • Brace and Hinckley, 'The Structure of Presidential Approval';
  • 103
    • 67749120722 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Brody and Shapiro, 'A Reconsideration of the Rally Phenomenon in Public Opinion';
    • Brody and Shapiro, 'A Reconsideration of the Rally Phenomenon in Public Opinion';
  • 104
    • 84995418446 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Who Rallies? The Anatomy of a Rally Event
    • George C. Edwards and Tami Swenson, 'Who Rallies? The Anatomy of a Rally Event', Journal of Politics, 59 (1997), 200-12.
    • (1997) Journal of Politics , vol.59 , pp. 200-212
    • Edwards, G.C.1    Swenson, T.2
  • 105
    • 67749135803 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • But see Lian and Oneal, 'Presidents, the Use of Military Force, and Public Opinion';
    • But see Lian and Oneal, 'Presidents, the Use of Military Force, and Public Opinion';
  • 106
    • 0036276756 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Constituent Foundations of the Rally-Round-the-Flag Phenomenon
    • Matthew Baum, 'The Constituent Foundations of the Rally-Round-the-Flag Phenomenon', International Studies Quarterly, 46 (2002), 263-98.
    • (2002) International Studies Quarterly , vol.46 , pp. 263-298
    • Baum, M.1
  • 107
    • 0031287757 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • There is considerable debate within the literature as to whether presidential approval is a stationary series. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Tests (ADF, GLS Dickey-Fuller tests (DFGLS) and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests all reject the null hypothesis of a unit root, p<, 0.01, for each of our three partisan approval series. However, KPSS tests suggest that we can reject the null hypothesis that the series is stationary. Thus, all three of our approval series may be near-integrated (Suzanna DeBoef and Jim Granato, Near-Integrated Data and the Analysis of Political Relationships, American Journal of Political Science, 41 (1997, 619-40) or fractionally-integrated (Matthew Lebo and Harold Clarke, You Must Remember This: Dealing with Long Memory in Political Analyses, Electoral Studies, 19 2000, 31-48, While such series are asymptotically stationary, in finite samples they may mimic integrated series and be susceptible to spurious regression results. One solution for a
    • There is considerable debate within the literature as to whether presidential approval is a stationary series. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Tests (ADF), GLS Dickey-Fuller tests (DFGLS) and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests all reject the null hypothesis of a unit root, p<, 0.01, for each of our three partisan approval series. However, KPSS tests suggest that we can reject the null hypothesis that the series is stationary. Thus, all three of our approval series may be near-integrated (Suzanna DeBoef and Jim Granato, 'Near-Integrated Data and the Analysis of Political Relationships', American Journal of Political Science, 41 (1997), 619-40) or fractionally-integrated (Matthew Lebo and Harold Clarke, 'You Must Remember This: Dealing with Long Memory in Political Analyses', Electoral Studies, 19 (2000), 31-48). While such series are asymptotically stationary, in finite samples they may mimic integrated series and be susceptible to spurious regression results. One solution for analysing near-integrated data is to transform the approval series into first differences (DeBoef and Granato, 'Near-Integrated Data and the Analysis of Political Relationships';
  • 108
    • 13444257909 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Harold Clarke, Marianne Stewart, Mike Ault and Euel Elliot, Men, Women, and the Dynamics of Presidential Approval, British Journal of Political Science, 35 2004, 31-51, Therefore, as a robustness check we reanalysed all three of our models using the change in presidential approval from the preceding to the current observation as the dependent variable. ADF, DFGLS and PP tests on all three first-differenced series reject a unit root, and KPSS tests cannot reject the null hypothesis that the resulting series are stationary. All results remain virtually identical to those presented in the text. Specifically, for members of the president's party, combat casualties in Vietnam and Iraq increased the variance in change in approval. Negative events were also positively correlated with increasing variance, though the coefficient failed to meet conventional levels of statistical significance. Among opposition party identifiers, positive rally events increased approval variance, while
    • Harold Clarke, Marianne Stewart, Mike Ault and Euel Elliot, 'Men, Women, and the Dynamics of Presidential Approval', British Journal of Political Science, 35 (2004), 31-51). Therefore, as a robustness check we reanalysed all three of our models using the change in presidential approval from the preceding to the current observation as the dependent variable. ADF, DFGLS and PP tests on all three first-differenced series reject a unit root, and KPSS tests cannot reject the null hypothesis that the resulting series are stationary. All results remain virtually identical to those presented in the text. Specifically, for members of the president's party, combat casualties in Vietnam and Iraq increased the variance in change in approval. Negative events were also positively correlated with increasing variance, though the coefficient failed to meet conventional levels of statistical significance. Among opposition party identifiers, positive rally events increased approval variance, while combat casualties in both wars decreased it. Variance also decreased considerably over the course of each presidency. And among independents, neither rally events nor casualties had any statistically significant effect on variance, and the coefficient for the month of term variable, while negative as expected, narrowly misses conventional levels of statistical significance. Because of this robustness check on the differenced approval series, we are confident that the results presented in the text and Table 1 are not spurious.
  • 109
    • 77957179238 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • As Nathaniel Beck notes, it is empirically difficult to distinguish MA from AR error processes (Nathaniel Beck, 'Comparing Dynamic Specifications: The Case of Presidential Approval', Political Analysis, 3 (1991), 51-88). All models were also re-estimated with an AR(1) error specification with virtually identical results. Most importantly, the signs and significance levels for all of our variables of interest in the variance equation remain unchanged.
    • As Nathaniel Beck notes, it is empirically difficult to distinguish MA from AR error processes (Nathaniel Beck, 'Comparing Dynamic Specifications: The Case of Presidential Approval', Political Analysis, 3 (1991), 51-88). All models were also re-estimated with an AR(1) error specification with virtually identical results. Most importantly, the signs and significance levels for all of our variables of interest in the variance equation remain unchanged.
  • 112
    • 67749106508 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Lagrange multiplier test statistics for all three series are as follows. For president's co-partisans, the statistic was 33.42; for partisan opponents it was 20.07; and for independents it was 15.79. All of these are higher than the chi-squared p<, 0.01 critical value with one degree of freedom (6.64), leading us to reject the null hypothesis of no first order ARCH effects. Regression analysis of the squared residuals on multiple lags showed no evidence of higher order ARCH effects.
    • The Lagrange multiplier test statistics for all three series are as follows. For president's co-partisans, the statistic was 33.42; for partisan opponents it was 20.07; and for independents it was 15.79. All of these are higher than the chi-squared p<, 0.01 critical value with one degree of freedom (6.64), leading us to reject the null hypothesis of no first order ARCH effects. Regression analysis of the squared residuals on multiple lags showed no evidence of higher order ARCH effects.
  • 113
    • 0033467440 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Scholars have demonstrated that a variety of factors, from an omitted variable in the mean equation to residual autocorrelation, can cause an erroneous rejection of the null of conditional homoscedasticity. See Dick van Dijk, Philip Hans Franses and Andre Lucas, Testing for Arch in the Presence of Additive Outliers, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 14 1999, 539-62;
    • Scholars have demonstrated that a variety of factors - from an omitted variable in the mean equation to residual autocorrelation - can cause an erroneous rejection of the null of conditional homoscedasticity. See Dick van Dijk, Philip Hans Franses and Andre Lucas, 'Testing for Arch in the Presence of Additive Outliers', Journal of Applied Econometrics, 14 (1999), 539-62;
  • 114
    • 67749131139 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Robin Lumsdaine and
    • Robin Lumsdaine and
  • 115
    • 0012769939 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Testing for ARCH in the Presence of a Possibly Misspecified Conditional Mean
    • Consequently, we also re-estimated all three models using only a multiplicative heteroscedastic parameterization of the variance, with no ARCH term. For each partisan series, the results are virtually identical to those reported in Table 1, greatly strengthening confidence in the robustness of our results
    • Serena Ng, 'Testing for ARCH in the Presence of a Possibly Misspecified Conditional Mean', Journal of Econometrics, 93 (1999), 257-79. Consequently, we also re-estimated all three models using only a multiplicative heteroscedastic parameterization of the variance, with no ARCH term. For each partisan series, the results are virtually identical to those reported in Table 1, greatly strengthening confidence in the robustness of our results.
    • (1999) Journal of Econometrics , vol.93 , pp. 257-279
    • Ng, S.1
  • 116
    • 67749148912 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • See Alvarez and Franklin, 'Uncertainty and Political Perceptions';
    • See Alvarez and Franklin, 'Uncertainty and Political Perceptions';
  • 117
    • 67749124499 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Alvarez and Brehm, 'Are Americans Ambivalent Towards Racial Policies?'
    • Alvarez and Brehm, 'Are Americans Ambivalent Towards Racial Policies?'
  • 118
    • 67749104700 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Moreover, the significant, positive relationships for both Vietnam and Iraq casualties are robust across specifications and operationalizations of casualties e.g. last month, quarterly, cumulative
    • Moreover, the significant, positive relationships for both Vietnam and Iraq casualties are robust across specifications and operationalizations of casualties (e.g. last month, quarterly, cumulative).
  • 120
    • 67749124500 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • All first differences in Table 2 are estimated for the George W. Bush presidency, except for the Vietnam casualties effects, which were estimated for the Johnson presidency. The positive and negative event first differences were estimated for the pre-Iraq period in the twenty-fourth month of the Bush presidency. The month of presidency first difference was also estimated with Iraq casualties set equal to zero.
    • All first differences in Table 2 are estimated for the George W. Bush presidency, except for the Vietnam casualties effects, which were estimated for the Johnson presidency. The positive and negative event first differences were estimated for the pre-Iraq period in the twenty-fourth month of the Bush presidency. The month of presidency first difference was also estimated with Iraq casualties set equal to zero.
  • 122
    • 67749097977 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Brody and Shapiro, 'A Reconsideration of the Rally Phenomenon';
    • Brody and Shapiro, 'A Reconsideration of the Rally Phenomenon';
  • 125
    • 67749116453 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Indeed, there are other potential explanations for why aggregate-level approval variance increases or decreases in the manner observed. For example, the effect of combat casualties on presidential support among members of his party may be conditional. In some cases, his co-partisans may rally behind the 'Commander in Chief, in others, they may remain steadfast in their previous levels of support; and in still other conditions, as we are now beginning to witness with the war in Iraq, some co-partisans may begin to drift away from their party leader. On average, we observe a modest decline, as captured in the model of mean approval; however, because the effect of casualties is conditional on other factors not captured in the model, we observe greater levels of uncertainty and variance around that mean estimate. If this alternative dynamic is driving aggregate level variance, then the observed variance is a result of model misspecification, not increased volatility in individual level su
    • Indeed, there are other potential explanations for why aggregate-level approval variance increases or decreases in the manner observed. For example, the effect of combat casualties on presidential support among members of his party may be conditional. In some cases, his co-partisans may rally behind the 'Commander in Chief'; in others, they may remain steadfast in their previous levels of support; and in still other conditions, as we are now beginning to witness with the war in Iraq, some co-partisans may begin to drift away from their party leader. On average, we observe a modest decline, as captured in the model of mean approval; however, because the effect of casualties is conditional on other factors not captured in the model, we observe greater levels of uncertainty and variance around that mean estimate. If this alternative dynamic is driving aggregate level variance, then the observed variance is a result of model misspecification, not increased volatility in individual level support for the president. New theory would be needed to illuminate our understanding of how the impact of traditional explanatory variables, such as casualties and positive and negative events, on approval is contingent and varies across environmental and political conditions. We thank an anonymous reviewer for suggesting this alternative to us.
  • 126
    • 84963009127 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • These overall levels of volatility are consistent with other studies of approval instability across repeated panel surveys; see Kent Tedin, Change and Stability in Presidential Popularity at the Individual Level, Public Opinion Quarterly, 40 1986, 555-62;
    • These overall levels of volatility are consistent with other studies of approval instability across repeated panel surveys; see Kent Tedin, 'Change and Stability in Presidential Popularity at the Individual Level', Public Opinion Quarterly, 40 (1986), 555-62;
  • 128
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    • These respondents' attitudes on the economy and Iran were constant across all three surveys.
    • These respondents' attitudes on the economy and Iran were constant across all three surveys.
  • 129
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    • In the reported analysis, we define a switch as any change in approval response, including for example a shift from no opinion to support, or from disapproval to no opinion (less than 2 per cent of all switches were of this type, Although the number of approval switches is essentially a count variable, not an ordinal one, it has an upper bound of two, which raises concerns about whether a Poisson model is appropriate. However, replicating the analyses in Table 4 with a Poisson event count model yields virtually identical results in both specifications. Moreover, the predicted values from this model for all observations are within the bounds of 0 and 2. As a further robustness check, we also created a binary variant of the dependent variable (switchers v. non-switchers) and estimated the same specifications with a logit model. These models, too, yielded virtually identical results
    • In the reported analysis, we define a switch as any change in approval response - including for example a shift from no opinion to support, or from disapproval to no opinion (less than 2 per cent of all switches were of this type). Although the number of approval switches is essentially a count variable, not an ordinal one, it has an upper bound of two, which raises concerns about whether a Poisson model is appropriate. However, replicating the analyses in Table 4 with a Poisson event count model yields virtually identical results in both specifications. Moreover, the predicted values from this model for all observations are within the bounds of 0 and 2. As a further robustness check, we also created a binary variant of the dependent variable (switchers v. non-switchers) and estimated the same specifications with a logit model. These models, too, yielded virtually identical results.


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.