Men, women and the dynamics of presidential approval

British Journal of Political Science

Volumn 35, Issue 1, 2005, Pages 31-51

  Clarke, Harold D ^a   Stewart, Marianne C ^a   Ault, Mike ^b   Elliott, Euel ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT DALLAS   (United States)

^b CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 13444257909     PISSN: 00071234     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1017/S0007123405000025     Document Type: Review

References (88)

1. To date, most studies of gender differences in attitudes towards the president have used cross-sectional ANES data, with the dependent variable being voting behaviour in presidential elections. See, for example, Carole R. Chaney, Michael Alvarez and Jonathan Nagler, 'Explaining the Gender Gap in US Presidential Elections, 1980-1992', Political Research Quarterly, 51(1998), 311-39. Research on gender differences in the dynamics and determinants of presidential approval is extremely rare. An example is Robert Winder, 'Presidential Popularity and the Economy: A Note on Demographic Differences', Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 38 (1992), 91-9.
2. To date, most studies of gender differences in attitudes towards the president have used cross-sectional ANES data, with the dependent variable being voting behaviour in presidential elections. See, for example, Carole R. Chaney, Michael Alvarez and Jonathan Nagler, 'Explaining the Gender Gap in US Presidential Elections, 1980-1992', Political Research Quarterly, 51(1998), 311-39. Research on gender differences in the dynamics and determinants of presidential approval is extremely rare. An example is Robert Winder, 'Presidential Popularity and the Economy: A Note on Demographic Differences', Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 38 (1992), 91-9.
3. See, inter alia, Harold D. Clarke and Marianne C. Stewart, 'Prospections, Retrospections, and Rationality: The "Bankers" Model of Presidential Approval Reconsidered', American Journal of Political Science, 38 (1994), 1104-23; Robert S. Erikson, Michael B. MacKuen and James A. Stimson, 'Bankers or Peasants Revisited: Economic Expectations and Presidential Approval', Electoral Studies, 19 (2000), 295-312; Robert S. Erikson, Michael B. MacKuen and James A. Stimson, The Macropolity (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2002); Brandon H. Haller and Helmut Norpoth, 'Let the Good Times Roll: The Economic Expectations of American Voters', American Journal of Political Science, 38 (1994), 625-50; Michael B. MacKuen, Robert S. Erikson and James A. Stimson, 'Peasants or Bankers? The American Electorate and the U.S. Economy', American Political Science Review, 86 (1992), 597-611; Michael Nickelsburg and Helmut Norpoth, 'Commander-in-Chief or Chief Economist? The President in the Eye of the Public', Electoral Studies, 19 (2000), 313-32; Helmut Norpoth, 'Presidents and the Prospective Voter', Journal of Politics, 58 (1996), 776-92; Helmut Norpoth, 'Rejoinder', Journal of Politics, 58 (1996), 802-5.
4. See, inter alia, Harold D. Clarke and Marianne C. Stewart, 'Prospections, Retrospections, and Rationality: The "Bankers" Model of Presidential Approval Reconsidered', American Journal of Political Science, 38 (1994), 1104-23; Robert S. Erikson, Michael B. MacKuen and James A. Stimson, 'Bankers or Peasants Revisited: Economic Expectations and Presidential Approval', Electoral Studies, 19 (2000), 295-312; Robert S. Erikson, Michael B. MacKuen and James A. Stimson, The Macropolity (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2002); Brandon H. Haller and Helmut Norpoth, 'Let the Good Times Roll: The Economic Expectations of American Voters', American Journal of Political Science, 38 (1994), 625-50; Michael B. MacKuen, Robert S. Erikson and James A. Stimson, 'Peasants or Bankers? The American Electorate and the U.S. Economy', American Political Science Review, 86 (1992), 597-611; Michael Nickelsburg and Helmut Norpoth, 'Commander-in-Chief or Chief Economist? The President in the Eye of the Public', Electoral Studies, 19 (2000), 313-32; Helmut Norpoth, 'Presidents and the Prospective Voter', Journal of Politics, 58 (1996), 776-92; Helmut Norpoth, 'Rejoinder', Journal of Politics, 58 (1996), 802-5.
5. See, inter alia, Harold D. Clarke and Marianne C. Stewart, 'Prospections, Retrospections, and Rationality: The "Bankers" Model of Presidential Approval Reconsidered', American Journal of Political Science, 38 (1994), 1104-23; Robert S. Erikson, Michael B. MacKuen and James A. Stimson, 'Bankers or Peasants Revisited: Economic Expectations and Presidential Approval', Electoral Studies, 19 (2000), 295-312; Robert S. Erikson, Michael B. MacKuen and James A. Stimson, The Macropolity (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2002); Brandon H. Haller and Helmut Norpoth, 'Let the Good Times Roll: The Economic Expectations of American Voters', American Journal of Political Science, 38 (1994), 625-50; Michael B. MacKuen, Robert S. Erikson and James A. Stimson, 'Peasants or Bankers? The American Electorate and the U.S. Economy', American Political Science Review, 86 (1992), 597-611; Michael Nickelsburg and Helmut Norpoth, 'Commander-in-Chief or Chief Economist? The President in the Eye of the Public', Electoral Studies, 19 (2000), 313-32; Helmut Norpoth, 'Presidents and the Prospective Voter', Journal of Politics, 58 (1996), 776-92; Helmut Norpoth, 'Rejoinder', Journal of Politics, 58 (1996), 802-5.
6. See, inter alia, Harold D. Clarke and Marianne C. Stewart, 'Prospections, Retrospections, and Rationality: The "Bankers" Model of Presidential Approval Reconsidered', American Journal of Political Science, 38 (1994), 1104-23; Robert S. Erikson, Michael B. MacKuen and James A. Stimson, 'Bankers or Peasants Revisited: Economic Expectations and Presidential Approval', Electoral Studies, 19 (2000), 295-312; Robert S. Erikson, Michael B. MacKuen and James A. Stimson, The Macropolity (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2002); Brandon H. Haller and Helmut Norpoth, 'Let the Good Times Roll: The Economic Expectations of American Voters', American Journal of Political Science, 38 (1994), 625-50; Michael B. MacKuen, Robert S. Erikson and James A. Stimson, 'Peasants or Bankers? The American Electorate and the U.S. Economy', American Political Science Review, 86 (1992), 597-611; Michael Nickelsburg and Helmut Norpoth, 'Commander-in-Chief or Chief Economist? The President in the Eye of the Public', Electoral Studies, 19 (2000), 313-32; Helmut Norpoth, 'Presidents and the Prospective Voter', Journal of Politics, 58 (1996), 776-92; Helmut Norpoth, 'Rejoinder', Journal of Politics, 58 (1996), 802-5.
7. See, inter alia, Harold D. Clarke and Marianne C. Stewart, 'Prospections, Retrospections, and Rationality: The "Bankers" Model of Presidential Approval Reconsidered', American Journal of Political Science, 38 (1994), 1104-23; Robert S. Erikson, Michael B. MacKuen and James A. Stimson, 'Bankers or Peasants Revisited: Economic Expectations and Presidential Approval', Electoral Studies, 19 (2000), 295-312; Robert S. Erikson, Michael B. MacKuen and James A. Stimson, The Macropolity (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2002); Brandon H. Haller and Helmut Norpoth, 'Let the Good Times Roll: The Economic Expectations of American Voters', American Journal of Political Science, 38 (1994), 625-50; Michael B. MacKuen, Robert S. Erikson and James A. Stimson, 'Peasants or Bankers? The American Electorate and the U.S. Economy', American Political Science Review, 86 (1992), 597-611; Michael Nickelsburg and Helmut Norpoth, 'Commander-in-Chief or Chief Economist? The President in the Eye of the Public', Electoral Studies, 19 (2000), 313-32; Helmut Norpoth, 'Presidents and the Prospective Voter', Journal of Politics, 58 (1996), 776-92; Helmut Norpoth, 'Rejoinder', Journal of Politics, 58 (1996), 802-5.
8. See, inter alia, Harold D. Clarke and Marianne C. Stewart, 'Prospections, Retrospections, and Rationality: The "Bankers" Model of Presidential Approval Reconsidered', American Journal of Political Science, 38 (1994), 1104-23; Robert S. Erikson, Michael B. MacKuen and James A. Stimson, 'Bankers or Peasants Revisited: Economic Expectations and Presidential Approval', Electoral Studies, 19 (2000), 295-312; Robert S. Erikson, Michael B. MacKuen and James A. Stimson, The Macropolity (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2002); Brandon H. Haller and Helmut Norpoth, 'Let the Good Times Roll: The Economic Expectations of American Voters', American Journal of Political Science, 38 (1994), 625-50; Michael B. MacKuen, Robert S. Erikson and James A. Stimson, 'Peasants or Bankers? The American Electorate and the U.S. Economy', American Political Science Review, 86 (1992), 597-611; Michael Nickelsburg and Helmut Norpoth, 'Commander-in-Chief or Chief Economist? The President in the Eye of the Public', Electoral Studies, 19 (2000), 313-32; Helmut Norpoth, 'Presidents and the Prospective Voter', Journal of Politics, 58 (1996), 776-92; Helmut Norpoth, 'Rejoinder', Journal of Politics, 58 (1996), 802-5.
9. See, inter alia, Harold D. Clarke and Marianne C. Stewart, 'Prospections, Retrospections, and Rationality: The "Bankers" Model of Presidential Approval Reconsidered', American Journal of Political Science, 38 (1994), 1104-23; Robert S. Erikson, Michael B. MacKuen and James A. Stimson, 'Bankers or Peasants Revisited: Economic Expectations and Presidential Approval', Electoral Studies, 19 (2000), 295-312; Robert S. Erikson, Michael B. MacKuen and James A. Stimson, The Macropolity (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2002); Brandon H. Haller and Helmut Norpoth, 'Let the Good Times Roll: The Economic Expectations of American Voters', American Journal of Political Science, 38 (1994), 625-50; Michael B. MacKuen, Robert S. Erikson and James A. Stimson, 'Peasants or Bankers? The American Electorate and the U.S. Economy', American Political Science Review, 86 (1992), 597-611; Michael Nickelsburg and Helmut Norpoth, 'Commander-in-Chief or Chief Economist? The President in the Eye of the Public', Electoral Studies, 19 (2000), 313-32; Helmut Norpoth, 'Presidents and the Prospective Voter', Journal of Politics, 58 (1996), 776-92; Helmut Norpoth, 'Rejoinder', Journal of Politics, 58 (1996), 802-5.
10. See, inter alia, Harold D. Clarke and Marianne C. Stewart, 'Prospections, Retrospections, and Rationality: The "Bankers" Model of Presidential Approval Reconsidered', American Journal of Political Science, 38 (1994), 1104-23; Robert S. Erikson, Michael B. MacKuen and James A. Stimson, 'Bankers or Peasants Revisited: Economic Expectations and Presidential Approval', Electoral Studies, 19 (2000), 295-312; Robert S. Erikson, Michael B. MacKuen and James A. Stimson, The Macropolity (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2002); Brandon H. Haller and Helmut Norpoth, 'Let the Good Times Roll: The Economic Expectations of American Voters', American Journal of Political Science, 38 (1994), 625-50; Michael B. MacKuen, Robert S. Erikson and James A. Stimson, 'Peasants or Bankers? The American Electorate and the U.S. Economy', American Political Science Review, 86 (1992), 597-611; Michael Nickelsburg and Helmut Norpoth, 'Commander-in-Chief or Chief Economist? The President in the Eye of the Public', Electoral Studies, 19 (2000), 313-32; Helmut Norpoth, 'Presidents and the Prospective Voter', Journal of Politics, 58 (1996), 776-92; Helmut Norpoth, 'Rejoinder', Journal of Politics, 58 (1996), 802-5.
11. V. O. Key Jr, The Responsible Electorate: Rationality in Presidential Voting, 1936-1960 (New York: Vintage Books, 1968).
12. Haller and Norpoth, 'Let the Good Times Roll'; Nickelsburg and Norpoth, 'Commander-in-Chief or Chief Economist?'; Norpoth, 'Presidents and the Prospective Voter'; Norpoth, 'Rejoinder'.
13. Haller and Norpoth, 'Let the Good Times Roll'; Nickelsburg and Norpoth, 'Commander-in-Chief or Chief Economist?'; Norpoth, 'Presidents and the Prospective Voter'; Norpoth, 'Rejoinder'.
14. Haller and Norpoth, 'Let the Good Times Roll'; Nickelsburg and Norpoth, 'Commander-in-Chief or Chief Economist?'; Norpoth, 'Presidents and the Prospective Voter'; Norpoth, 'Rejoinder'.
15. Haller and Norpoth, 'Let the Good Times Roll'; Nickelsburg and Norpoth, 'Commander-in-Chief or Chief Economist?'; Norpoth, 'Presidents and the Prospective Voter'; Norpoth, 'Rejoinder'.
16. MacKuen, Erikson and Stimson, 'Peasants or Bankers'; see also Michael B. MacKuen, Robert S. Erikson and James A. Stimson, 'Comment', Journal of Politics, 58 (1996), 793-801; Erikson, MacKuen and Stimson, 'Bankers or Peasants Revisited'; Erikson, MacKuen and Stimson, The Macropolity, chap. 2.
17. MacKuen, Erikson and Stimson, 'Peasants or Bankers'; see also Michael B. MacKuen, Robert S. Erikson and James A. Stimson, 'Comment', Journal of Politics, 58 (1996), 793-801; Erikson, MacKuen and Stimson, 'Bankers or Peasants Revisited'; Erikson, MacKuen and Stimson, The Macropolity, chap. 2.
18. MacKuen, Erikson and Stimson, 'Peasants or Bankers'; see also Michael B. MacKuen, Robert S. Erikson and James A. Stimson, 'Comment', Journal of Politics, 58 (1996), 793-801; Erikson, MacKuen and Stimson, 'Bankers or Peasants Revisited'; Erikson, MacKuen and Stimson, The Macropolity, chap. 2.
19. MacKuen, Erikson and Stimson, 'Peasants or Bankers'; see also Michael B. MacKuen, Robert S. Erikson and James A. Stimson, 'Comment', Journal of Politics, 58 (1996), 793-801; Erikson, MacKuen and Stimson, 'Bankers or Peasants Revisited'; Erikson, MacKuen and Stimson, The Macropolity, chap. 2.
20. See, for example, Clarke and Stewart, 'Prospections, Retrospections, and Rationality'; Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Economics and Elections: The Major Western Democracies (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1988).
21. See, for example, Clarke and Stewart, 'Prospections, Retrospections, and Rationality'; Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Economics and Elections: The Major Western Democracies (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1988).
22. Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier and Suzanna DeBoef, 'Partisanship and Ideology: A Subgroup Analysis Over Time' (paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, San Francisco, 1996); Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier and Renée M. Smith, 'The Dynamics of Aggregate Partisanship', American Political Science Review, 90 (1996), 567-80; Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier, Suzanna DeBoef and Tse-Min Lin, 'Macroideology, Macropartisanship, and the Gender Gap' (paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington, D.C., 1997); George Krause and Jim Granato, 'Fooling Some of the People Some of the Time? A Test of Weak Rationality With Heterogeneous Information Levels', Public Opinion Quarterly, 62 (1998), 159-78. Pioneering studies are Douglas A. Hibbs, 'Economic Outcomes and Political Support for British Governments Among Occupational Classes: A Dynamic Analysis', American Political Science Review, 76 (1982), 259-79; Douglas A. Hibbs, 'The Dynamics of Political Support for American Presidents among Occupational Classes: A Dynamic Analysis', American Political Science Review, 76 (1982), 312-32; Kristen Monroe, Presidential Popularity and the Economy (New York: Praeger, 1984).
23. Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier and Suzanna DeBoef, 'Partisanship and Ideology: A Subgroup Analysis Over Time' (paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, San Francisco, 1996); Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier and Renée M. Smith, 'The Dynamics of Aggregate Partisanship', American Political Science Review, 90 (1996), 567-80; Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier, Suzanna DeBoef and Tse-Min Lin, 'Macroideology, Macropartisanship, and the Gender Gap' (paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington, D.C., 1997); George Krause and Jim Granato, 'Fooling Some of the People Some of the Time? A Test of Weak Rationality With Heterogeneous Information Levels', Public Opinion Quarterly, 62 (1998), 159-78. Pioneering studies are Douglas A. Hibbs, 'Economic Outcomes and Political Support for British Governments Among Occupational Classes: A Dynamic Analysis', American Political Science Review, 76 (1982), 259-79; Douglas A. Hibbs, 'The Dynamics of Political Support for American Presidents among Occupational Classes: A Dynamic Analysis', American Political Science Review, 76 (1982), 312-32; Kristen Monroe, Presidential Popularity and the Economy (New York: Praeger, 1984).
24. Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier and Suzanna DeBoef, 'Partisanship and Ideology: A Subgroup Analysis Over Time' (paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, San Francisco, 1996); Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier and Renée M. Smith, 'The Dynamics of Aggregate Partisanship', American Political Science Review, 90 (1996), 567-80; Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier, Suzanna DeBoef and Tse-Min Lin, 'Macroideology, Macropartisanship, and the Gender Gap' (paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington, D.C., 1997); George Krause and Jim Granato, 'Fooling Some of the People Some of the Time? A Test of Weak Rationality With Heterogeneous Information Levels', Public Opinion Quarterly, 62 (1998), 159-78. Pioneering studies are Douglas A. Hibbs, 'Economic Outcomes and Political Support for British Governments Among Occupational Classes: A Dynamic Analysis', American Political Science Review, 76 (1982), 259-79; Douglas A. Hibbs, 'The Dynamics of Political Support for American Presidents among Occupational Classes: A Dynamic Analysis', American Political Science Review, 76 (1982), 312-32; Kristen Monroe, Presidential Popularity and the Economy (New York: Praeger, 1984).
25. Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier and Suzanna DeBoef, 'Partisanship and Ideology: A Subgroup Analysis Over Time' (paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, San Francisco, 1996); Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier and Renée M. Smith, 'The Dynamics of Aggregate Partisanship', American Political Science Review, 90 (1996), 567-80; Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier, Suzanna DeBoef and Tse-Min Lin, 'Macroideology, Macropartisanship, and the Gender Gap' (paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington, D.C., 1997); George Krause and Jim Granato, 'Fooling Some of the People Some of the Time? A Test of Weak Rationality With Heterogeneous Information Levels', Public Opinion Quarterly, 62 (1998), 159-78. Pioneering studies are Douglas A. Hibbs, 'Economic Outcomes and Political Support for British Governments Among Occupational Classes: A Dynamic Analysis', American Political Science Review, 76 (1982), 259-79; Douglas A. Hibbs, 'The Dynamics of Political Support for American Presidents among Occupational Classes: A Dynamic Analysis', American Political Science Review, 76 (1982), 312-32; Kristen Monroe, Presidential Popularity and the Economy (New York: Praeger, 1984).
26. Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier and Suzanna DeBoef, 'Partisanship and Ideology: A Subgroup Analysis Over Time' (paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, San Francisco, 1996); Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier and Renée M. Smith, 'The Dynamics of Aggregate Partisanship', American Political Science Review, 90 (1996), 567-80; Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier, Suzanna DeBoef and Tse-Min Lin, 'Macroideology, Macropartisanship, and the Gender Gap' (paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington, D.C., 1997); George Krause and Jim Granato, 'Fooling Some of the People Some of the Time? A Test of Weak Rationality With Heterogeneous Information Levels', Public Opinion Quarterly, 62 (1998), 159-78. Pioneering studies are Douglas A. Hibbs, 'Economic Outcomes and Political Support for British Governments Among Occupational Classes: A Dynamic Analysis', American Political Science Review, 76 (1982), 259-79; Douglas A. Hibbs, 'The Dynamics of Political Support for American Presidents among Occupational Classes: A Dynamic Analysis', American Political Science Review, 76 (1982), 312-32; Kristen Monroe, Presidential Popularity and the Economy (New York: Praeger, 1984).
27. Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier and Suzanna DeBoef, 'Partisanship and Ideology: A Subgroup Analysis Over Time' (paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, San Francisco, 1996); Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier and Renée M. Smith, 'The Dynamics of Aggregate Partisanship', American Political Science Review, 90 (1996), 567-80; Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier, Suzanna DeBoef and Tse-Min Lin, 'Macroideology, Macropartisanship, and the Gender Gap' (paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington, D.C., 1997); George Krause and Jim Granato, 'Fooling Some of the People Some of the Time? A Test of Weak Rationality With Heterogeneous Information Levels', Public Opinion Quarterly, 62 (1998), 159-78. Pioneering studies are Douglas A. Hibbs, 'Economic Outcomes and Political Support for British Governments Among Occupational Classes: A Dynamic Analysis', American Political Science Review, 76 (1982), 259-79; Douglas A. Hibbs, 'The Dynamics of Political Support for American Presidents among Occupational Classes: A Dynamic Analysis', American Political Science Review, 76 (1982), 312-32; Kristen Monroe, Presidential Popularity and the Economy (New York: Praeger, 1984).
28. Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier and Suzanna DeBoef, 'Partisanship and Ideology: A Subgroup Analysis Over Time' (paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, San Francisco, 1996); Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier and Renée M. Smith, 'The Dynamics of Aggregate Partisanship', American Political Science Review, 90 (1996), 567-80; Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier, Suzanna DeBoef and Tse-Min Lin, 'Macroideology, Macropartisanship, and the Gender Gap' (paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington, D.C., 1997); George Krause and Jim Granato, 'Fooling Some of the People Some of the Time? A Test of Weak Rationality With Heterogeneous Information Levels', Public Opinion Quarterly, 62 (1998), 159-78. Pioneering studies are Douglas A. Hibbs, 'Economic Outcomes and Political Support for British Governments Among Occupational Classes: A Dynamic Analysis', American Political Science Review, 76 (1982), 259-79; Douglas A. Hibbs, 'The Dynamics of Political Support for American Presidents among Occupational Classes: A Dynamic Analysis', American Political Science Review, 76 (1982), 312-32; Kristen Monroe, Presidential Popularity and the Economy (New York: Praeger, 1984).
29. See, for example, Diana C. Mutz and Jeffery J. Mondak, 'Dimensions of Sociotropic Behavior: Group-Based Judgements of Fairness and Well-Being', American Journal of Political Science, 41 (1997), 284-308; Paul M. Sniderman, Richard A. Brody and Philip E. Tetlock, eds, Reasoning and Choice: Explorations in Political Psychology (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1991); John Zaller, The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1992).
30. See, for example, Diana C. Mutz and Jeffery J. Mondak, 'Dimensions of Sociotropic Behavior: Group-Based Judgements of Fairness and Well-Being', American Journal of Political Science, 41 (1997), 284-308; Paul M. Sniderman, Richard A. Brody and Philip E. Tetlock, eds, Reasoning and Choice: Explorations in Political Psychology (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1991); John Zaller, The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1992).
31. See, for example, Diana C. Mutz and Jeffery J. Mondak, 'Dimensions of Sociotropic Behavior: Group-Based Judgements of Fairness and Well-Being', American Journal of Political Science, 41 (1997), 284-308; Paul M. Sniderman, Richard A. Brody and Philip E. Tetlock, eds, Reasoning and Choice: Explorations in Political Psychology (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1991); John Zaller, The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1992).
32. Jean Bethke Elshtain, Public Man, Private Woman: Women in Social and Political Thought (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1981); Susan J. Carroll and Linda M. G. Zerilli, 'Feminist Challenges to Political Science', in Ada W. Finifter, ed., Political Science: The State of the Discipline II (Washington, D.C.: American Political Science Association, 1993); Pamela Johnston Conover and Virginia Sapiro, 'Gender, Feminist Consciousness and War', American Journal of Political Science, 37 (1993), 1079-99; Martin Gilens, 'Gender and Support for Reagan: A Comprehensive Model of Presidential Approval', American Journal of Political Science, 32 (1988), 19-49; Carol Gilligan, In a Different Voice (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1982).
33. Jean Bethke Elshtain, Public Man, Private Woman: Women in Social and Political Thought (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1981); Susan J. Carroll and Linda M. G. Zerilli, 'Feminist Challenges to Political Science', in Ada W. Finifter, ed., Political Science: The State of the Discipline II (Washington, D.C.: American Political Science Association, 1993); Pamela Johnston Conover and Virginia Sapiro, 'Gender, Feminist Consciousness and War', American Journal of Political Science, 37 (1993), 1079-99; Martin Gilens, 'Gender and Support for Reagan: A Comprehensive Model of Presidential Approval', American Journal of Political Science, 32 (1988), 19-49; Carol Gilligan, In a Different Voice (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1982).
34. Jean Bethke Elshtain, Public Man, Private Woman: Women in Social and Political Thought (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1981); Susan J. Carroll and Linda M. G. Zerilli, 'Feminist Challenges to Political Science', in Ada W. Finifter, ed., Political Science: The State of the Discipline II (Washington, D.C.: American Political Science Association, 1993); Pamela Johnston Conover and Virginia Sapiro, 'Gender, Feminist Consciousness and War', American Journal of Political Science, 37 (1993), 1079-99; Martin Gilens, 'Gender and Support for Reagan: A Comprehensive Model of Presidential Approval', American Journal of Political Science, 32 (1988), 19-49; Carol Gilligan, In a Different Voice (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1982).
35. Jean Bethke Elshtain, Public Man, Private Woman: Women in Social and Political Thought (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1981); Susan J. Carroll and Linda M. G. Zerilli, 'Feminist Challenges to Political Science', in Ada W. Finifter, ed., Political Science: The State of the Discipline II (Washington, D.C.: American Political Science Association, 1993); Pamela Johnston Conover and Virginia Sapiro, 'Gender, Feminist Consciousness and War', American Journal of Political Science, 37 (1993), 1079-99; Martin Gilens, 'Gender and Support for Reagan: A Comprehensive Model of Presidential Approval', American Journal of Political Science, 32 (1988), 19-49; Carol Gilligan, In a Different Voice (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1982).
36. Jean Bethke Elshtain, Public Man, Private Woman: Women in Social and Political Thought (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1981); Susan J. Carroll and Linda M. G. Zerilli, 'Feminist Challenges to Political Science', in Ada W. Finifter, ed., Political Science: The State of the Discipline II (Washington, D.C.: American Political Science Association, 1993); Pamela Johnston Conover and Virginia Sapiro, 'Gender, Feminist Consciousness and War', American Journal of Political Science, 37 (1993), 1079-99; Martin Gilens, 'Gender and Support for Reagan: A Comprehensive Model of Presidential Approval', American Journal of Political Science, 32 (1988), 19-49; Carol Gilligan, In a Different Voice (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1982).
37. Kristi Andersen, 'Chapter Two', in Barbara Norrander and Clyde Wilcox, eds., Understanding Public Opinion (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Quarterly Press, 1997); Conover and Sapiro, 'Gender, Feminist Consciousness and War'; Susan Welch and John Hibbing, 'Financial Conditions, Gender, and Voting in American National Elections', Journal of Politics, 54 (1992), 197-213. See also Gilens, 'Gender and Support for Reagan'; Lisa Leghorn and Katherine Parker, Women's Worth: Sexual Economics and the World of Women (London: Routledge & Kegan Paul, 1981).
38. Kristi Andersen, 'Chapter Two', in Barbara Norrander and Clyde Wilcox, eds., Understanding Public Opinion (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Quarterly Press, 1997); Conover and Sapiro, 'Gender, Feminist Consciousness and War'; Susan Welch and John Hibbing, 'Financial Conditions, Gender, and Voting in American National Elections', Journal of Politics, 54 (1992), 197-213. See also Gilens, 'Gender and Support for Reagan'; Lisa Leghorn and Katherine Parker, Women's Worth: Sexual Economics and the World of Women (London: Routledge & Kegan Paul, 1981).
39. Kristi Andersen, 'Chapter Two', in Barbara Norrander and Clyde Wilcox, eds., Understanding Public Opinion (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Quarterly Press, 1997); Conover and Sapiro, 'Gender, Feminist Consciousness and War'; Susan Welch and John Hibbing, 'Financial Conditions, Gender, and Voting in American National Elections', Journal of Politics, 54 (1992), 197-213. See also Gilens, 'Gender and Support for Reagan'; Lisa Leghorn and Katherine Parker, Women's Worth: Sexual Economics and the World of Women (London: Routledge & Kegan Paul, 1981).
40. Kristi Andersen, 'Chapter Two', in Barbara Norrander and Clyde Wilcox, eds., Understanding Public Opinion (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Quarterly Press, 1997); Conover and Sapiro, 'Gender, Feminist Consciousness and War'; Susan Welch and John Hibbing, 'Financial Conditions, Gender, and Voting in American National Elections', Journal of Politics, 54 (1992), 197-213. See also Gilens, 'Gender and Support for Reagan'; Lisa Leghorn and Katherine Parker, Women's Worth: Sexual Economics and the World of Women (London: Routledge & Kegan Paul, 1981).
41. Kristi Andersen, 'Chapter Two', in Barbara Norrander and Clyde Wilcox, eds., Understanding Public Opinion (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Quarterly Press, 1997); Conover and Sapiro, 'Gender, Feminist Consciousness and War'; Susan Welch and John Hibbing, 'Financial Conditions, Gender, and Voting in American National Elections', Journal of Politics, 54 (1992), 197-213. See also Gilens, 'Gender and Support for Reagan'; Lisa Leghorn and Katherine Parker, Women's Worth: Sexual Economics and the World of Women (London: Routledge & Kegan Paul, 1981).
42. Box-Steffensmeier, DeBoef and Lin, 'Macroideology, Macropartisanship, and the Gender Gap'; Carroll and Zerilli, 'Feminist Challenges to Political Science'; Conover and Sapiro, 'Gender, Feminist Consciousness and War'; Elizabeth Cook and Clyde Wilcox, 'Feminism and the Gender Gap: A Second Look', Journal of Politics, 53 (1991), 111-22; Elisabeth Gidengil, 'Economic Man - Social Women? The Case of the Gender Gap in Support for the Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement', Comparative Political Studies, 28 (1995), 384-408; Sara Ruddick, Maternal Thinking: Towards a Politics of Peace (Boston, Mass.: Beacon Press, 1989); Clyde Wilcox, Lara Hewitt and Dee Alsop, 'The Gender Gap in Attitudes toward the Gulf War: A Cross-National Perspective', Journal of Peace Research, 33 (1996), 67-82.
43. Box-Steffensmeier, DeBoef and Lin, 'Macroideology, Macropartisanship, and the Gender Gap'; Carroll and Zerilli, 'Feminist Challenges to Political Science'; Conover and Sapiro, 'Gender, Feminist Consciousness and War'; Elizabeth Cook and Clyde Wilcox, 'Feminism and the Gender Gap: A Second Look', Journal of Politics, 53 (1991), 111-22; Elisabeth Gidengil, 'Economic Man - Social Women? The Case of the Gender Gap in Support for the Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement', Comparative Political Studies, 28 (1995), 384-408; Sara Ruddick, Maternal Thinking: Towards a Politics of Peace (Boston, Mass.: Beacon Press, 1989); Clyde Wilcox, Lara Hewitt and Dee Alsop, 'The Gender Gap in Attitudes toward the Gulf War: A Cross-National Perspective', Journal of Peace Research, 33 (1996), 67-82.
44. Box-Steffensmeier, DeBoef and Lin, 'Macroideology, Macropartisanship, and the Gender Gap'; Carroll and Zerilli, 'Feminist Challenges to Political Science'; Conover and Sapiro, 'Gender, Feminist Consciousness and War'; Elizabeth Cook and Clyde Wilcox, 'Feminism and the Gender Gap: A Second Look', Journal of Politics, 53 (1991), 111-22; Elisabeth Gidengil, 'Economic Man - Social Women? The Case of the Gender Gap in Support for the Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement', Comparative Political Studies, 28 (1995), 384-408; Sara Ruddick, Maternal Thinking: Towards a Politics of Peace (Boston, Mass.: Beacon Press, 1989); Clyde Wilcox, Lara Hewitt and Dee Alsop, 'The Gender Gap in Attitudes toward the Gulf War: A Cross-National Perspective', Journal of Peace Research, 33 (1996), 67-82.
45. Box-Steffensmeier, DeBoef and Lin, 'Macroideology, Macropartisanship, and the Gender Gap'; Carroll and Zerilli, 'Feminist Challenges to Political Science'; Conover and Sapiro, 'Gender, Feminist Consciousness and War'; Elizabeth Cook and Clyde Wilcox, 'Feminism and the Gender Gap: A Second Look', Journal of Politics, 53 (1991), 111-22; Elisabeth Gidengil, 'Economic Man - Social Women? The Case of the Gender Gap in Support for the Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement', Comparative Political Studies, 28 (1995), 384-408; Sara Ruddick, Maternal Thinking: Towards a Politics of Peace (Boston, Mass.: Beacon Press, 1989); Clyde Wilcox, Lara Hewitt and Dee Alsop, 'The Gender Gap in Attitudes toward the Gulf War: A Cross-National Perspective', Journal of Peace Research, 33 (1996), 67-82.
46. Box-Steffensmeier, DeBoef and Lin, 'Macroideology, Macropartisanship, and the Gender Gap'; Carroll and Zerilli, 'Feminist Challenges to Political Science'; Conover and Sapiro, 'Gender, Feminist Consciousness and War'; Elizabeth Cook and Clyde Wilcox, 'Feminism and the Gender Gap: A Second Look', Journal of Politics, 53 (1991), 111-22; Elisabeth Gidengil, 'Economic Man - Social Women? The Case of the Gender Gap in Support for the Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement', Comparative Political Studies, 28 (1995), 384-408; Sara Ruddick, Maternal Thinking: Towards a Politics of Peace (Boston, Mass.: Beacon Press, 1989); Clyde Wilcox, Lara Hewitt and Dee Alsop, 'The Gender Gap in Attitudes toward the Gulf War: A Cross-National Perspective', Journal of Peace Research, 33 (1996), 67-82.
47. Box-Steffensmeier, DeBoef and Lin, 'Macroideology, Macropartisanship, and the Gender Gap'; Carroll and Zerilli, 'Feminist Challenges to Political Science'; Conover and Sapiro, 'Gender, Feminist Consciousness and War'; Elizabeth Cook and Clyde Wilcox, 'Feminism and the Gender Gap: A Second Look', Journal of Politics, 53 (1991), 111-22; Elisabeth Gidengil, 'Economic Man - Social Women? The Case of the Gender Gap in Support for the Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement', Comparative Political Studies, 28 (1995), 384-408; Sara Ruddick, Maternal Thinking: Towards a Politics of Peace (Boston, Mass.: Beacon Press, 1989); Clyde Wilcox, Lara Hewitt and Dee Alsop, 'The Gender Gap in Attitudes toward the Gulf War: A Cross-National Perspective', Journal of Peace Research, 33 (1996), 67-82.
48. Box-Steffensmeier, DeBoef and Lin, 'Macroideology, Macropartisanship, and the Gender Gap'; Carroll and Zerilli, 'Feminist Challenges to Political Science'; Conover and Sapiro, 'Gender, Feminist Consciousness and War'; Elizabeth Cook and Clyde Wilcox, 'Feminism and the Gender Gap: A Second Look', Journal of Politics, 53 (1991), 111-22; Elisabeth Gidengil, 'Economic Man - Social Women? The Case of the Gender Gap in Support for the Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement', Comparative Political Studies, 28 (1995), 384-408; Sara Ruddick, Maternal Thinking: Towards a Politics of Peace (Boston, Mass.: Beacon Press, 1989); Clyde Wilcox, Lara Hewitt and Dee Alsop, 'The Gender Gap in Attitudes toward the Gulf War: A Cross-National Perspective', Journal of Peace Research, 33 (1996), 67-82.
49. Chaney, Alvarez and Nagler, 'Explaining the Gender Gap'; Welch and Hibbing, 'Financial Conditions, Gender and Voting'.
50. Chaney, Alvarez and Nagler, 'Explaining the Gender Gap'; Welch and Hibbing, 'Financial Conditions, Gender and Voting'.
51. See Caroll and Zerilli, 'Feminist Challenges'; Elshtain, Public Man, Private Woman; Sidney Verba, Kay Lehman Schlozman and Henry E. Brady, Voice and Equality: Civic Voluntarism in American Politics (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1995).
52. See Caroll and Zerilli, 'Feminist Challenges'; Elshtain, Public Man, Private Woman; Sidney Verba, Kay Lehman Schlozman and Henry E. Brady, Voice and Equality: Civic Voluntarism in American Politics (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1995).
53. See Caroll and Zerilli, 'Feminist Challenges'; Elshtain, Public Man, Private Woman; Sidney Verba, Kay Lehman Schlozman and Henry E. Brady, Voice and Equality: Civic Voluntarism in American Politics (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1995).
54. Susan J. Carroll, 'Women's Autonomy and the Gender Gap: 1980 and 1982', in Carol M. Mueller, ed., The Politics of the Gender Gap: The Social Construction of Political Influence (Newbury Park, Calif.: Sage Publications, 1988); Christine L. Day and Charles D. Hadley, 'The Importance of Attitudes toward Women's Equality: Policy Preferences among Southern Party Elites', Social Science Quarterly, 78 (1997), 672-87. See also Shirley Burggraf, The Feminine Economy and Economic Man: Reviving the Role of Family in the Post-Industrial Age (Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley, 1997); Joyce P. Jacobsen, The Economics of Gender (Cambridge, Mass.: Blackwell, 1994).
55. Susan J. Carroll, 'Women's Autonomy and the Gender Gap: 1980 and 1982', in Carol M. Mueller, ed., The Politics of the Gender Gap: The Social Construction of Political Influence (Newbury Park, Calif.: Sage Publications, 1988); Christine L. Day and Charles D. Hadley, 'The Importance of Attitudes toward Women's Equality: Policy Preferences among Southern Party Elites', Social Science Quarterly, 78 (1997), 672-87. See also Shirley Burggraf, The Feminine Economy and Economic Man: Reviving the Role of Family in the Post-Industrial Age (Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley, 1997); Joyce P. Jacobsen, The Economics of Gender (Cambridge, Mass.: Blackwell, 1994).
56. Susan J. Carroll, 'Women's Autonomy and the Gender Gap: 1980 and 1982', in Carol M. Mueller, ed., The Politics of the Gender Gap: The Social Construction of Political Influence (Newbury Park, Calif.: Sage Publications, 1988); Christine L. Day and Charles D. Hadley, 'The Importance of Attitudes toward Women's Equality: Policy Preferences among Southern Party Elites', Social Science Quarterly, 78 (1997), 672-87. See also Shirley Burggraf, The Feminine Economy and Economic Man: Reviving the Role of Family in the Post-Industrial Age (Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley, 1997); Joyce P. Jacobsen, The Economics of Gender (Cambridge, Mass.: Blackwell, 1994).
57. Susan J. Carroll, 'Women's Autonomy and the Gender Gap: 1980 and 1982', in Carol M. Mueller, ed., The Politics of the Gender Gap: The Social Construction of Political Influence (Newbury Park, Calif.: Sage Publications, 1988); Christine L. Day and Charles D. Hadley, 'The Importance of Attitudes toward Women's Equality: Policy Preferences among Southern Party Elites', Social Science Quarterly, 78 (1997), 672-87. See also Shirley Burggraf, The Feminine Economy and Economic Man: Reviving the Role of Family in the Post-Industrial Age (Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley, 1997); Joyce P. Jacobsen, The Economics of Gender (Cambridge, Mass.: Blackwell, 1994).
58. Martin Paldam and Peter Nannestad, 'What Do Voters Know About the Economy? A Study of Danish Data, 1990-1993', Electoral Studies, 19 (2000), 363-92.
59. Nickelsburg and Norpoth, 'Commander-in-Chief or Chief Economist'.
60. Conover and Sapiro, 'Gender, Feminist Consciousness and War'; Wilcox, Hewitt and Allsop, 'The Gender Gap in Attitudes toward the Gulf War'.
61. Conover and Sapiro, 'Gender, Feminist Consciousness and War'; Wilcox, Hewitt and Allsop, 'The Gender Gap in Attitudes toward the Gulf War'.
62. Since the set of events that might possibly affect presidential approval ratings is very large, we also specify a summary 'miscellaneous events' variable that enables us to model the impact of numerous additional events without incurring a large penalty in lost degrees of freedom.
63. Richard A. Brody, Assessing the President: The Media, Elite Opinion, and Public Support (Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University Press, 1991), chap. 2.
64. Andersen, 'Chapter Two'.
65. The decision to use monthly data is prompted by the very substantial amount of missing data in the quarterly consumer confidence time series prior to the beginning of monthly surveys in January 1978. Also, quarterly data are ill-suited for modelling economic and political factors affecting short-run dynamics in presidential approval. This is particularly true when data are gathered irregularly within quarters, as is the case with the pre-1978 Surveys of Consumers polls. Krause notes other statistical problems that make quarterly data unattractive. See George Krause, 'Voters, Information Heterogeneity, and the Dynamics of Aggregate Economic Expectations', American Journal of Political Science, 41 (1998), 1170-200, p. 1180.
66. MacKuen, Erikson and Stimson, 'Peasants or Bankers?'; Clarke and Stewart, 'Prospections, Retrospections and Rationality'.
67. MacKuen, Erikson and Stimson, 'Peasants or Bankers?'; Clarke and Stewart, 'Prospections, Retrospections and Rationality'.
68. The economic evaluation questions are: (i) Personal retrospections: 'Would you say that you (and your family living there [sic]) are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?' (ii) National Retrospections: 'Would you say that at the present time business conditions are better or worse than they were a year ago?' (iii) Personal Prospections: 'Now looking ahead - do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there [sic]) will be better of financially, or worse off, or just about the same as now?' (iv) National Prospections (Five-Year Time Horizon): 'Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely - that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next 5 years or so, or that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?' Note that there are two other SC questions that measure expectations about the national economy over a shorter (one-year) time horizon: One Year - Good-Bad: 'Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole - do you think that during the next 12 months we'll have good times financially, or bad times or what?' One Year - Better-Worse: 'How about a year from now. Do you expect that in the country as a whole business conditions will be better, or worse than they are at present, or just about the same?' In fn. 35 below, we report the results of using these one-year national prospections in the men's and women's presidential approval models. Monthly observations of the economic evaluation variables are constructed by subtracting the percentage of persons offering negative evaluations from the percentage offering positive ones, thereby yielding a possible range of - 100 to - 100.
69. t, where φ and ø are qth-order and pth-order moving average and autoregressive components, respectively. The d parameter assumes real, as opposed to integer, values, as is the case for a standard ARIMA process. See Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier and Reneκe M. Smith, 'Investigating Political Dynamics Using Fractional Integration Methods', American Journal of Political Science, 42 (1998), 661-89; Harold D. Clarke and Matthew Lebo, 'Fractional (Co)Integration and Governing Party Support in Britain', British Journal of Political Science, 33 (2003), 283-301.
70. t, where φ and ø are qth-order and pth-order moving average and autoregressive components, respectively. The d parameter assumes real, as opposed to integer, values, as is the case for a standard ARIMA process. See Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier and Reneκe M. Smith, 'Investigating Political Dynamics Using Fractional Integration Methods', American Journal of Political Science, 42 (1998), 661-89; Harold D. Clarke and Matthew Lebo, 'Fractional (Co)Integration and Governing Party Support in Britain', British Journal of Political Science, 33 (2003), 283-301.
71. P. M. Robinson, 'Gaussian Semiparametric Estimation of Long Range Dependence', Annals of Statistics, 23 (1995), 1630-61; F. Sowell, 'Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Stationary Univariate Fractionally Integrated Time Series Models', Journal of Econometrics, 53 (1992), 165-88.
72. P. M. Robinson, 'Gaussian Semiparametric Estimation of Long Range Dependence', Annals of Statistics, 23 (1995), 1630-61; F. Sowell, 'Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Stationary Univariate Fractionally Integrated Time Series Models', Journal of Econometrics, 53 (1992), 165-88.
73. t is said to be long-memoried, but stationary. If d a ≥ 0.5 but < 1.0, the series is variance non-stationary, but shocks do eventually decay to zero. See Philip Hans Franses, Time Series Models of Business and Economic Forecasting (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998), p. 79; Peter C. B. Phillips and Zhijie Xiao, 'A Primer on Unit Root Testing', in Michael McAleer and Les Oxley, eds, Practical Issues in Cointegration Analysis (Oxford: Blackwell, 1999), pp. 33-4.
74. t is said to be long-memoried, but stationary. If d a ≥ 0.5 but < 1.0, the series is variance non-stationary, but shocks do eventually decay to zero. See Philip Hans Franses, Time Series Models of Business and Economic Forecasting (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998), p. 79; Peter C. B. Phillips and Zhijie Xiao, 'A Primer on Unit Root Testing', in Michael McAleer and Les Oxley, eds, Practical Issues in Cointegration Analysis (Oxford: Blackwell, 1999), pp. 33-4.
75. DeBoef recently has demonstrated that a single-equation ECM specification works well for nearly integrated data (Suzanna DeBoef, 'Modeling Equilibrium Relationships: Error Correction Models with Strongly Autoregressive Data', Political Analysis, 9 (2001), 78-94).
76. The presidential transition variables are scored 1 in the month in which the transition occurred and 0 in other months.
77. All of the designated interventions are scored 1 in the month in which the intervention occurred and 0 in other months. The summary miscellaneous events variable is coded + 1 for months in which an event hypothesized to increase presidential approval occurred, - 1 for months in which an event hypothesized to diminish presidential approval occurred, and 0 for other months.
78. See, for example, William Greene, Econometric Analysis, 4th edn (New York: Prentice-Hall, 2000), pp. 614-36. For the SUR analyses presented in Tables 4 and 5, the correlations of the residuals for the men and women's models are substantial, ranging from 0.48 to 0.51.
79. t-1, as is required if economic evaluations have long-run effects that erode shocks to presidential approval. For example, the adjustment parameter (- 0.095) in the personal prospections model for men indicates that a shock dissipates at a rate of 9.5 per cent every month after it occurs.
80. Wojciech W. Charemza and Derek F. Deadman, New Directions in Econometric Practice (Aldershot, Hants.: Edward Elgar, 1997), chap. 8. A model is said to encompass a rival if it can explain variance in the errors of that competitor. In general, there are four possibilities: (a) model A encompasses model B but B does not encompass A; (b) model B encompasses model A but model A does not encompass B; (c) model A encompasses model B and B encompasses A; (d) model A does not encompass model B and B does not encompass A.
81. R. Davidson and J. MacKinnon, 'Several Tests for Model Specification in the Presence of Alternative Hypotheses', Econometrica, 49 (1981), 781-93. To perform the J tests, the models are re-estimated using ordinary least squares (OLS). Parameter estimates and significance test results are very similar to those reported in Tables 4 and 5.
82. 2 = 5.294, p = 0.999 for women).
83. Both of the alternative (one-year) national economic expectation variables (see fn. 23 above) have statistically significant long-term effects in the men's and women's presidential approval models. Among men, neither variable has significant short-term effects, but among women, the one-year 'good times-bad times' variable has a significant short-term effect. For women, encompassing (J) tests show that the one-year 'better-worse' model is encompassed by the model employing the longer (five-year) time horizon national economic expectations variable, but the converse is not true. The one-year 'good times-bad times' and the five-year prospections variables do not encompass one another. For men, the personal prospections model encompasses both models incorporating one-year national prospections, but neither of the latter models encompass the former. Nesting tests (based on SUR analyses employing either the one-year 'good-bad' or the long-term (five-year) national prospective variables for women) also indicate that for men the personal prospections model outperforms rivals that include either of the one-year national prospections variables. Details are available upon request.
84. t has such an effect, Y is said to 'Granger-cause' X. If Y, does not affect X at t + 1 ... t + k, Y is said to be strongly exogenous to X. See Charemza and Deadman, New Directions in Econometric Practice, pp. 222-32. Establishing weak exogeneity is sufficient to warrant estimation procedures such as those employed for the presidential approval models.
85. Charemza and Deadman, New Directions in Econometric Practice, pp. 229-32.
86. An alternative approach to estimation, given concerns that economic expectations might not be weakly exogenous, is to estimate the men's and women's presidential approval models using an instrumental variables technique, specifically, three-stage least squares (3SLS). See, for example, Greene, Econometric Analysis, pp. 692-3. In these analyses, appropriately lagged values of the economic expectation variables and the political interventions are employed as instruments for the differenced and lagged versions of the expectation variables that appear on the right-hand side of the approval models. The 3SLS analyses yield very similar results to those for the SUR analyses. Details are available upon request.
87. Greene, Econometric Analysis, pp. 153-6.
88. The larger variance in national prospective economic evaluations among women, as compared to that for personal economic evaluations among men, obtains during each of the Carter, Reagan, Bush and Clinton presidencies.