Climate change sensitivity assessment of a highly agricultural watershed using SWAT

Journal of Hydrology

Volumn 374, Issue 1-2, 2009, Pages 16-29

  Ficklin, Darren L ^a   Luo, Yuzhou ^a   Luedeling, Eike ^a   Zhang, Minghua ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

Author keywords

Agricultural watershed; Climate change; Evapotranspiration; SWAT; Water yield; Watershed modeling

Indexed keywords

AGRICULTURAL SYSTEM; AGRICULTURAL WATERSHED; AGRICULTURAL WATERSHEDS; ATMOSPHERIC CO; CALIFORNIA; HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSE; IN-PLANT; INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGES; IRRIGATION WATER USE; IRRIGATION WATERS; MEDITERRANEAN CLIMATES; MODEL CALIBRATION; NASH-SUTCLIFFE COEFFICIENT; PRECIPITATION CHANGE; SOIL AND WATER ASSESSMENT TOOL; SUMMER MONTHS; SWAT; TEMPORAL SHIFTS; WATER YIELD; WATERSHED HYDROLOGY; WATERSHED MODELING;

AGRICULTURAL RUNOFF; BIOCHEMICAL OXYGEN DEMAND; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION; GEOLOGIC MODELS; HYDRAULIC MODELS; IRRIGATION; LANDFORMS; PLANT LIFE EXTENSION; RIVERS; STREAM FLOW; WATER MANAGEMENT; WATER POLLUTION; WATER QUALITY; WATER SUPPLY; WATERSHEDS;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY; CARBON DIOXIDE; CLIMATE CHANGE; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION; FARMING SYSTEM; GROWTH; HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSE; INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE; IRRIGATION; MEDITERRANEAN WATER; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; WATER MANAGEMENT; WATER RESOURCE; WATER YIELD; WATERSHED;

CALIFORNIA; NORTH AMERICA; UNITED STATES;

EID: 67650363768     PISSN: 00221694     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.05.016     Document Type: Article

References (88)

1. Aber J.D., Ollinger S.V., Federer C.A., Reich P.B., Goulden M.L., Kicklighter D.W., Melillo J.M., and Lathrop Jr. R.G. Predicting the effects of climate change on water yield and forest production in the northeastern United States. Climate Research 5 (1995) 207-222
2. Allen M.R., and Ingram W.J. Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle. Nature 419 6903 (2002) 224-232
3. Arnell N.W., and Liv C. Hydrology and water resources. In: McCarthy J.J., Canziani O.F., Leary N.A., Dokken D.J., and White K.S. (Eds). Climate Change 2001: Impacts. Adaptation and Vulnerability (2001), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK 191-233
4. Arnold J.G., Srinivasan R., Muttiah R.S., and Williams J.R. Large area hydrologic modeling and assessment part I: model development. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 34 1 (1998) 73-89
5. Boswell V.G. The influence of temperature upon the growth and yield of garden peas. Proceedings of the American Society for Horticultural Science 23 (1926) 162-168
6. Brekke L.D., Miller N.L., Bashford K.E., Quinn N.W.T., and Dracup J.A. Climate change impacts uncertainty for water resources in the San Joaquin River Basin, California. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 40 1 (2004) 149-164
7. California Department of Water Resources (DWR), 2007. Land Use Survey Data.
8. California Environmental Protection Agency (CEPA), 2007. CEPA, Surface Water Database, California Environmental Protection Agency.
9. California Regional Water Quality Control Board (CRWQCB), 2000. Central Valley Region. Monitoring Data included from the following testing programs: UC Davis Phase II, East San Joaquin Water Quality Coalition, San Joaquin County and Delta Water Quality Coalition, and Westside San Joaquin River Watershed Coalition.
10. California State Water Resources Control Board, 2002. CWA Section 303(d) List of Water Quality Limited Segments. (accessed 8.11.06).
11. Cayan D.R., Maurer E.P., Dettinger M.D., Tyree M., and Hayhoe K. Climate change scenarios for the California region. Climatic Change 87 Suppl. 1 (2008) S21-S42
12. 2 concentration and to changes in precipitation and air temperature. Journal of Hydrology 337 1-2 (2007) 159-171
13. Chen, 2001. Impacts of Stomatal Resistance on Evapotranspiration and Water Yield in Climate Change Modeling. M.S. Thesis, Washington State University, Pullman, Washington, p. 110.
14. Crepeau, K.L., Kuivila, K.M., Domagalski, J.L., 1991. River inputs of pesticide to the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, CA (Abstract).
15. Cruise J.F., Limaye A.S., and Al-Abed N. Assessment of impacts of climate change on water quality in the southeastern United States. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 35 6 (1999) 1539-1550
16. Dettinger M.D., Cayan D.R., Meyer M.K., and Jeton A.E. Simulated hydrologic responses to climate variations and change in the Merced, Carson, and American River Basins, Sierra Nevada, California, 1900-2099. Climatic Change 62 1 (2004) 283-317
17. Dracup, J.A., Pelmulder, S.D., 1993. Estimation of Monthly Average Streamflow for the Sacramento-San Joaquin River System under Normal, Drought, and Climate Change Conditions. Integrated Modeling of Drought and Global Warming: Impacts on Selected California Resources Report by the National Institute for Global Environmental Change, University of California, Davis, CA, p.112.
18. 2. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 59 (1992) 17-34
19. Eckhardt K., and Ulbrich U. Potential impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge and streamflow in a central European low mountain range. Journal of Hydrology 284 1-4 (2003) 244-252
20. 2: implications from the plant to the global scale. Plant Cell Environment 18 (1995) 1214-1225
21. Flay R.B., and Narasimhan T.N. Application of the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) and geographic information systems (GIS) to integrated water management of the San Joaquin River Basin, California. Eos, Transactions, AGU 81 48 (2000) (Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract H21F-06)
22. Flugel W. Delineating hydrologic response units by geographical information-system analyses for regional hydrological modeling using PRMS/MMS in the drainage-basin of the River BROL, Germany. Hydrologic Processes 9 (1995) 423-436
23. Foe C. Detection of pesticides in the San Joaquin watershed during February, 1990 (1990), Staff Memorandum, Central Valley Regional Water Quality Control Board, Sacramento, CA
24. Foe, C., Connor, V., 1991. San Joaquin Watershed Bioassay Results, 1988-1990. Staff Report. Central Valley Regional Water Quality Control Board, Sacramento, CA.
25. Foe C., and Sheipline R. Pesticide in surface water from applications on orchards and alfalfa during the winter and spring of 1991-1992 (1993), Central Valley Regional Water Quality Control Board, Sacramento, CA
26. Fontaine T.A., Klassen J.F., and Hotchkiss R.H. Hydrological response to climate change in the Black Hills of South Dakota, USA. Hydrological Sciences 46 1 (2001) 27-40
27. 2 and other trace gases. Climatic Change 10 2 (1987) 137-160
28. Hanratty M.P., and Stefan H.G. Simulating climate change effects in a Minnesota agricultural watershed. Journal of Environmental Quality 27 6 (1998) 1524-1532
29. Hay L.E., Wilby R.L., and Leavesley G.H. A comparison of delta change and downscaled GCM scenarios for three mountainous basins in the United States. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 36 2 (2000) 387-397
30. Hendry G.R., Lewin K.F., and Nagy K.F. Free air carbon dioxide enrichment: development, progress, results. Vegatatio 104/105 (1993) 17-31
31. IPCC, 2001. Climate Change. The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. 996 p.
32. IPCC, 2001. Special Report on Emission Scenarios. Cambridge University Press, 612 p.
33. IPCC, 2007. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
34. Kalnay E., and Cai M. Impact of urbanization and land-use change on climate. Nature 423 (2003) 528-531
35. Kamga F.M. Impact of greenhouse gas induced climate change on the runoff of the Upper Benue River (Cameroon). Journal of Hydrology 252 (2001) 145-156
36. Knisel W.G. CREAMS: a field scale model for chemicals, runoff, and erosion from agricultural management systems. USDA Technical Bulletin (1980) 643
37. Knowles N., and Cayan D. Potential effects of global warming on the Sacramento/San Joaquin watershed and the San Francisco estuary. Geophysical Research Letters 19 18 (2002) 1891
38. Kratzer C.R. Transport of Diazinon in the San Joaquin River Basin, California. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 35 2 (1999) 379-395
39. Labat D., Godderis Y., Probst J.L., and Guyot J.L. Evidence for global runoff increase related to climate warming. Advances in Water Resources 27 6 (2004) 631-642
40. LaDochy S., Medina R., and Patzert W. Recent California climate variability: spatial and temporal patterns in temperature trends. Climate Research 33 (2007) 159-169
41. Leavesley, 1983. Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System: User's Manual. US Geological Survey, Denver, CO, USA.
42. Legesse D., Vallet-Coulomb C., and Gasse F. Hydrological response of a catchment to climate and land use changes in Tropical Africa: case study South Central Ethiopia. Journal of Hydrology 275 1-2 (2003) 67-85
43. Lettenmaier D., and Gan T. Hydrologic sensitivities of the Sacramento-San Joaquin River basin, California, to global warming. Water Resources Research 26 (1990) 69-86
44. Lettenmaier D.P., Wood A.W., Palmer R.N., Wood E.F., and Stakhiv E.Z. Water resources implications of global warming: a US regional perspective. Climatic Change 43 3 (1999) 537-579
45. Luedeling, E., Zhang, M., Luedeling, V., Girvetz, E.H., in press. Sensitivity of winter chill models for fruit and nut trees to climatic changes expected in California's Central Valley. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, doi:10.1016/j.agee.2009.04.016.
46. Luo Y., Zhang X., Liu X., Ficklin D., and Zhang M. Dynamic modeling of organophosphate pesticide load in surface water in the northern San Joaquin Valley watershed of California. Environmental Pollution 156 (2008) 1171-1181
47. Magoon C.A., and Culpepper C.W. Response of sweet corn to varying temperatures from time of planting to canning maturity. USDA Technical Bulletin (1932) 312
48. Maurer E., and Duffy P.B. Uncertainty in projections of streamflow changes due to climate change in California. Geophysical Research Letters (2005) 32
49. Maurer E. Uncertainty in hydrologic impacts of climate change in the Sierra Nevada, California, under two emissions scenarios. Climatic Change 82 3 (2007) 309-325
50. 2 concentrations: a synthesis. New Phytologist 149 (2001) 247-264
51. Miller N.L., Kim J., Hartman R.K., and Farrara J. Downscaled climate and streamflow study of the Southwest United States. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 35 6 (1999) 1525-1537
52. Miller N.L., and Kim J. Climate change sensitivity analysis for two California watersheds: addendum to the downscaled climate and streamflow study of the Southwest United States. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 36 3 (2000) 657-661
53. Morison J.I.L., and Gifford R.M. Stomatal sensitivity to carbon dioxide and humidity. Plant Physiology 71 (1983) 789-796
54. 2. Stomatal Function (1987), Stanford University Press, Stanford CA 229-251
55. Nash J.E., and Sutcliffe J.V. River flow forecasting through conceptual models: part I. A discussion of principles. Journal of Hydrology 10 1976 (1976) 282-290
56. Nash L.L., and Gleick P.H. Sensitivity of streamflow in the Colorado Basin to climatic changes. Journal of Hydrology 125 3-4 (1991) 221-241
57. Nash L.L., and Gleick P.H. Colorado River Basin and Climatic Change. The sensitivity of streamflow and Water Supply to Variations in Temperature and Precipitation (1993), Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment and Security, Oakland, CA PB-94-128527/XAB
58. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). National Climatic Data Center (accessed 15.05.08).
59. Nietsch, S.L., Arnold, J.G., Kiniry, J.R., Williams, J.R., King, K.W., 2005. Soil and Water Assessment Tool Theoretical Documentation. Version 2005. College Station, TX: Texas Water Resource Institute.
60. 2 and plant structure: a review. Global Change Biology 5 (1999) 807-837
61. Racsko P., Szeidl L., and Semenov M. A serial approach to local stochastic weather models. Ecological Modelling 57 1-2 (1991) 27-41
62. Rind D., Goldberg R., Hansen J., Rosenzweig C., and Ruedy R. Potential evapotranspiration and the likelihood of future drought. Journal of Geophysical Research 95 D7 (1990) 9983-10004
63. Rosenberg N.J., Epstein D.J., Wang D., Vail L., Srinivasan R., and Arnold J.G. Possible impacts of global warming on the hydrology of the Ogallala aquifer region. Climatic Change 42 4 (1999) 677-692
64. 2 atmosphere. New Phytologist 139 (1998) 395-436
65. Schaake J.C. Water resources. In: Waggoner P.E. (Ed). Water Resources (1990), John Wiley, New York 177-206 (Chapter 8)
66. Schuol J., Abbaspour K.C., Srinivasan R., and Yang H. Estimation of freshwater availability in the West African sub-continent using the SWAT hydrologic model. Journal of Hydrology 352 1-2 (2008) 30-49
67. Semenov M.A., and Barrow E.M. Use of a stochastic weather generator in the development of climate change scenarios. Climatic Change 35 4 (1997) 397-414
68. Semenov M.A., Brooks R.J., Barrow E.M., and Richardson C.W. Comparison of WGEN and LARS-WG stochastic weather generators for diverse climates. Climate Research 10 (1998) 95-107
69. Sharpley, A.N, Williams, J.R., 1990. Erosion/Productivity Impact Calculator, 1. Model Documentation. USDA-ARS Technical Bulletin 1768.
70. Soil Conservation Service, 1984. SCS National Engineering Handbook. US Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC.
71. Srinivasan R., Ramanarayanan T.S., Arnold J.G., and Bednarz S.T. Large area hydrologic modeling and assessment part II: model application. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 34 1 (1998) 91-101
72. Stonefelt M.D., Fontaine T.A., and Hotchkiss R.H. Impacts of climate change on water yield in the upper Wind River Basin. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 36 2 (2000) 321-336
73. 2: a review and suggestions for future research. Plant Ecology 104-105 1 (1993) 47-62
74. USBR (US Bureau of Reclamation), 1991. Evaluation of Central Valley Project Water Supply and Delivery Systems. Technical Report by the USBR Mid-Pacific Regional Office, Sacramento, CA.
75. USDA, 2007. Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO) Database, United States Department of Agriculture.
76. USEPA (US Environmental Protection Agency), 1997. Climate Change and California. Report No. 230-F-97-008e, USEPA Office of Policy, Planning, and Evaluation, Washington, DC.
77. USEPA, 2002. Guidance for Selecting Input Parameters in Modeling the Environmental Fate and Transport of Pesticides, Version II. Office of Pesticide Programs, US Environmental Protection Agency.
78. USEPA, 2004. Pesticide Root Zone Model (PRZM) Field and Orchard Crop Scenarios: Guidance for Selecting Field Crop and Orchard Scenario Input Parameters. Office of Pesticide Programs, US Environmental Protection Agency.
79. USEPA, 2007. Data for the Better Assessment Science Integrating Point and Nonpoint Sources (BASINS) Model, United States Environmental Protection Agency.
80. USEPA, 2008. Impaired and Threatened Water Lists. (accessed 11.10.08).
81. USGS, 2007. National Water Information System: Web Interface, United States Geographical Survey.
82. VanRheenen N.T., Wood A.W., Palmer R.N., and Lettenmaier D.P. Potential implications of PCM climate change scenarios for Sacramento-San Joaquin River Basin hydrology and water resources. Climatic Change 62 1 (2004) 257-281
83. 2 concentrations: a meta-analytic test of current theories and perceptions. Global Change Biology 5 (1999) 723-741
84. Wilby R., and Dettinger M. Streamflow changes in the Sierra Nevada, California, simulated using a statistically downscaled general circulation model scenario of climate change. Linking Climate Change to Land Surface Change (2003) 99-121
85. Wolock D.M., and McCabe G.J. Estimates of runoff using water-balance and atmospheric general circulation models. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 35 6 (1999) 1341-1350
86. 2 concentration-interacting variables and perspectives of scale. New Phytologist 153 (2002) 319-331
87. Yates D.N. WatBal: an integrated water balance model for climate impact assessment of river basin runoff. International Journal of Water Resources Development 2 (1996) 121-139
88. Zhu T., Jenkins M.W., and Lund J.R. Estimated impacts of climate warming on California water availability under twelve future climate scenarios. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 41 5 (2005) 1027-1038