Heterogeneity in host HIV susceptibility as a potential contributor to recent HIV prevalence declines in Africa

AIDS

Volumn 23, Issue 1, 2009, Pages 125-130

  Nagelkerke, Nico J D ^a,b   De Vlas, Sake J ^c   Jha, Prabhat ^d   Luo, Ma ^b,e   Plummer, Francis A ^b,e   Kaul, Rupert ^f,g,h  

^a UNITED ARAB EMIRATES UNIVERSITY   (United Arab Emirates)

^b UNIVERSITY OF MANITOBA   (Canada)

^c ERASMUS MEDICAL CENTER   (Netherlands)

^d UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO   (Canada)

^e PUBLIC HEALTH AGENCY OF CANADA   (Canada)

^f UNIVERSITY HEALTH NETWORK   (Canada)

^g UNIVERSITY OF NAIROBI   (Kenya)

^h Clinical Science Division   (Canada)

Author keywords

Epidemiology; Heterogeneity in host susceptibility; HIV transmission; Modeling

Indexed keywords

AFRICA; ARTICLE; BEHAVIOR CHANGE; COMPARTMENT MODEL; EPIDEMIC; FEMALE; HIGH RISK POPULATION; HOST; HOST SUSCEPTIBILITY; HUMAN; HUMAN IMMUNODEFICIENCY VIRUS INFECTION; HUMAN IMMUNODEFICIENCY VIRUS PREVALENCE; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; MALE; MATHEMATICAL MODEL; OBSERVATION; PRIORITY JOURNAL; PROSTITUTION; SEXUAL BEHAVIOR; VIRUS TRANSMISSION;

AFRICA; DISEASE OUTBREAKS; DISEASE SUSCEPTIBILITY; FEMALE; HIV INFECTIONS; HUMANS; MALE; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; PROSTITUTION; RISK-TAKING; SEXUAL BEHAVIOR;

EID: 58149112211     PISSN: 02699370     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1097/QAD.0b013e3283177f20     Document Type: Article

References (36)

1. Cheluget B, Baltazar G, Orege P, Ibrahim M, Marum LH, Stover J. Evidence for population level declines in adult HIV prevalence in Kenya. Sex Transm Infect 2006; 82 (Suppl 1):i21-i26.
2. Stoneburner RL, Low-Beer D. Population-level HIV declines and behavioral risk avoidance in Uganda. Science 2004; 304:714-718.
3. Kilian AH, Gregson S, Ndyanabangi B, Walusaga K, Kipp W, Sahlmuller G, et al. Reductions in risk behaviour provide the most consistent explanation for declining HIV-1 prevalence in Uganda. AIDS 1999; 13:391-398.
4. Kilian AH, Kipp W, Jhangri GS, Saunders LD, Ndyanabangi B, O'Connor H, et al. Trends in HIV infection: prevention-related attitudes and behaviors among secondary school students in western Uganda. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr 2007; 44:586-593.
5. Slutkin G, Okware S, Naamara W, Sutherland D, Flanagan D, Carael M, et al. How Uganda reversed its HIV epidemic. AIDS Behav 2006; 10:351-360.
6. Wawer MJ, Serwadda D, Gray RH, Sewankambo NK, Li C, Nalugoda F, et al. Trends in HIV-1 prevalence may not reflect trends in incidence in mature epidemics: data from the Rakai population-based cohort, Uganda. AIDS 1997; 11:1023-1030.
7. James JS. Uganda study found that death reduced HIV prevalence; did the public take home the wrong message? AIDS Treat News 2005; 5-6.
8. Singh S, Darroch JE, Bankole A. A, B and C in Uganda: the roles of abstinence, monogamy and condom use in HIV decline. Reprod Health Matters 2004; 12:129-131.
9. Kimani J, Kaul R, Nagelkerke NJ, Luo M, MacDonald KS, Ngugi E, et al. Reduced rates of HIV acquisition during unprotected sex by Kenyan female sex workers predating population declines in HIV prevalence. AIDS 2008; 22:131-137.
10. Samson M, Libert F, Doranz BJ, Rucker J, Liesnard C, Farber CM, et al. Resistance to HIV-1 infection in Caucasian individuals bearing mutant alleles of the CCR-5 chemokine receptor gene. Nature 1996; 382:722-725.
11. Gonzalez E, Kulkarni H, Bolivar H, Mangano A, Sanchez R, Catano G, et al. The influence of CCL3L1 gene-containing segmental duplications on HIV-1/AIDS susceptibility. Science 2005; 307:1434-1440.
12. Freeman EE, Weiss HA, Glynn JR, Cross PL, Whitworth JA, Hayes RJ. Herpes simplex virus 2 infection increases HIV acquisition in men and women: systematic review and meta-analysis of longitudinal studies. AIDS 2006; 20:73-83.
13. Nagelkerke NJ, Jha P, de Vlas SJ, Korenromp EL, Moses S, Blanchard JF, Plummer FA. Modelling HIV/AIDS epidemics in Botswana and India: impact of interventions to prevent transmission. Bull World Health Organ 2002; 80:89-96.
14. Nagelkerke NJ, Moses S, de Vlas SJ, Bailey RC. Modelling the public health impact of male circumcision for HIV prevention in high prevalence areas in Africa. BMC Infect Dis 2007; 7:16.
15. Epidemiological fact sheets on HIV/AIDS and sexually transmitted infections: 2004 update [Kenya]. http://www.who.int/globalatlas/ predefinedReports/EFS2004/index.asp. Joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS, World Health Organization; 2004.
16. Epidemiological fact sheets on HIV/AIDS and sexually transmitted infections: 2006 update [Kenya] http://www.who.int/globalatlas/ predefinedReports/EFS2006/index.asp. Joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS, World Health Organization; 2006.
17. Ghys PD, Kufa E, George MV. Measuring trends in prevalence and incidence of HIV infection in countries with generalised epidemics. Sex Transm Infect 2006; 82 (Suppl 1):i52-i56.
18. Downs AM, De Vincenzi I. Probability of heterosexual transmission of HIV: relationship to the number of unprotected sexual contacts. European Study Group in Heterosexual Transmission of HIV. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr Hum Retrovirol 1996; 11:388-395.
19. Kaplan EH. Modeling HIV infectivity: must sex acts be counted? J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr 1990; 3:55-61.
20. Peterman TA, Stoneburner RL, Allen JR, Jaffe HW, Curran JW. Risk of human immunodeficiency virus transmission from heterosexual adults with transfusion-associated infections. JAMA 1988; 259:55-58.
21. Ball TB, Ji H, Kimani J, McLaren P, Marlin C, Hill AV, Plummer FA. Polymorphisms in IRF-1 associated with resistance to HIV-1 infection in highly exposed uninfected Kenyan sex workers. AIDS 2007; 21:1091-1101.
22. Iqbal SM, Kaul R. Mucosal innate immunity as a determinant of HIV susceptibility. Am J Reprod Immunol 2008; 59:44-54.
23. Kaul R, Rowland-Jones SL, Kimani J, Fowke K, Dong T, Kiama P, et al. New insights into HIV-1 specific cytotoxic T-lymphocyte responses in exposed, persistently seronegative Kenyan sex workers. Immunol Lett 2001; 79:3-13.
24. Fowke KR, Nagelkerke NJ, Kimani J, Simonsen JN, Anzala AO, Bwayo JJ, et al. Resistance to HIV-1 infection among persistently seronegative prostitutes in Nairobi, Kenya. Lancet 1996; 348:1347-1351.
25. Ghani AC, Aral SO. Patterns of sex worker-client contacts and their implications for the persistence of sexually transmitted infections. J Infect Dis 2005; 191 (Suppl 1):S34-S41.
26. Abu-Raddad LJ, Longini IM Jr. No HIV stage is dominant in driving the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa. AIDS 2008; 22:1055-1061.
27. Brenner BG, Roger M, Routy JP, Moisi D, Ntemgwa M, Matte C, et al. High rates of forward transmission events after acute/ early HIV-1 infection. J Infect Dis 2007; 195:951-959.
28. Lewis F, Hughes GJ, Rambaut A, Pozniak A, Leigh Brown AJ. Episodic sexual transmission of HIV revealed by molecular phylodynamics. PLoS Med 2008; 5:e50.
29. Pilcher CD, Joaki G, Hoffman IF, Martinson FE, Mapanje C, Stewart PW, et al. Amplified transmission of HIV-1: comparison of HIV-1 concentrations in semen and blood during acute and chronic infection. AIDS 2007; 21:1723-1730.
30. Kaul R, Kimani J, Nagelkerke NJ, Fonck K, Keli F, MacDonald KS, et al. Reduced HIV risk-taking and low HIV incidence after enrollment and risk-reduction counseling in a sexually transmitted disease prevention trial in Nairobi, Kenya. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr 2002; 30:69-72.
31. van de Wijgert JH, Shattock RJ. Vaginal microbicides: moving ahead after an unexpected setback. AIDS 2007; 21:2369-2376.
32. Peterson L, Taylor D, Roddy R, Belai G, Phillips P, Nanda K, et al. Tenofovir disoproxil fumarate for prevention of HIV infection in women: a phase 2, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial. PLoS Clin Trials 2007; 2:e27.
33. Green EC, Halperin DT, Nantulya V, Hogle JA. Uganda's HIV prevention success: the role of sexual behavior change and the national response. AIDS Behav 2006; 10:335-346; discussion 347-350.
34. Gregson S, Garnett GP, Nyamukapa CA, Hallett TB, Lewis JJ, Mason PR, et al. HIV decline associated with behavior change in eastern Zimbabwe. Science 2006; 311:664-666.
35. Hallett TB, Aberle-Grasse J, Bello G, Boulos LM, Cayemittes MP, Cheluget B, et al. Declines in HIV prevalence can be associated with changing sexual behaviour in Uganda, urban Kenya, Zimbabwe, and urban Haiti. Sex Transm Infect 2006; 82 (Suppl 1):i1-i8.
36. Mahomva A, Greby S, Dube S, Mugurungi O, Hargrove J, Rosen D, et al. HIV prevalence and trends from data in Zimbabwe, 1997-2004. Sex Transm Infect 2006; 82 (Suppl 1):i42-i47.