Short-range precipitation forecasts from time-lagged multimodel ensembles during the HMT-west-2006 campaign

Journal of Hydrometeorology

Volumn 9, Issue 3, 2008, Pages 477-491

  Yuan, Huiling ^a   McGinley, John A ^a   Schultz, Paul J ^a   Anderson, Christopher J ^b   Lu, Chungu ^b  

^a EARTH SYSTEM RESEARCH LABORATORY   (United States)

^b Department of Environmental and Radiological Health Sciences   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK; ATMOSPHERIC MODELING; BOUNDARY CONDITION; CALIBRATION; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; MESOSCALE METEOROLOGY; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); PROBABILITY; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS; WEATHER FORECASTING;

AMERICAN RIVER; CALIFORNIA; NORTH AMERICA; UNITED STATES;

EID: 58049115949     PISSN: 1525755X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/2007JHM879.1     Document Type: Article

References (48)

1. Albers, S. C., 1995: The LAPS wind analysis. Wea. Forecasting, 10, 342-352.
2. Atger, F., 2003: Spatial and interannual variability of the reliability of ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts: Consequences for calibration. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 1509-1523.
3. Benjamin, S. G., G. A. Grell, J. M. Brown, and T. G. Smirnova, 2004: Mesoscale weather prediction with the RUC hybrid isentropic-terrain-following coordinate model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 473-494.
4. Brooks, H. E., M. S. Tracton, D. J. Stensrud, G. DiMego, and Z. Toth, 1995: Short-range ensemble forecasting: Report from a workshop, 25-27 July 1994. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 76, 1617-1624.
5. Cotton, W. R., and Coauthors, 2003: RAMS 2001: Current status and future directions. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 82, 5-29.
6. Dettinger, M., K. Redmond, and D. Cayan, 2004: Winter orographic precipitation ratios in the Sierra Nevada - Large-scale atmospheric circulations and hydrologic consequences. J. Hydrometeor., 5, 1102-1116.
7. Du, J., J. McQueen, G. DiMego, Z. Toth, D. Jovic, B. Zhou, and H. Chuang, 2006: New dimension of NCEP short-range ensemble forecasting (SREF) system: Inclusion of WRF members. Preprint, WMO Expert Team Meeting on Ensemble Prediction System, Exeter, United Kingdom, WMO CBS-DPFS/EPS/Doc.6(5). [Available online at http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/SREF/reference.html.]
8. Eckel, F. A., and M. K. Walters, 1998: Calibrated probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts based on the MRF ensemble. Wea. Forecasting, 13, 1132-1147.
9. Ferrier, B. S., Y. Jin, Y. Lin, T. Black, E. Rogers, and G. DiMego, 2002: Implementation of a new grid-scale cloud and rainfall scheme in the NCEP Eta Model. Preprints, 15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, San Antonio, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 280-283.
10. Fritsch, J. M., and Coauthors, 1998: Quantitative precipitation forecasting: Report of the Eighth Prospectus Development Team, U.S. Weather Research Program. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 79, 285-299.
11. Glahn, H. R., and D. A. Lowry, 1972: The use of model output statistics (MOS) in objective weather forecasting. J. Appl. Meteor., 11, 1203-1211.
12. Grell, G. A., J. Dudhia, and D. R. Stauffer, 1995: A description of the fifth-generation Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5). NCAR Tech. Note NCAR/TN-398+STR, 138 pp.
13. Hamill, T. M., 1999: Hypothesis tests for evaluating numerical precipitation forecasts. Wea. Forecasting, 14, 155-167.
14. Hamill, T. M., and S. J. Colucci, 1997: Verification of Eta-RSM short-range ensemble forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 1312-1327.
15. Hamill, T. M., and J. Juras, 2006: Measuring forecast skill: Is it real skill or is it the varying climatology? Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 132, 2905-2923.
16. Hamill, T. M., J. S. Whitaker, and X. Wei, 2004: Ensemble reforecasting: Improving medium-range forecast skill using retrospective forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 1434-1447.
17. Hamill, T. M., J. S. Whitaker, and S. L. Mullen, 2006: Reforecasts: An important dataset for improving weather predictions. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 87, 33-46.
18. Hersbach, H., R. Mureau, J. D. Opsteegh, and J. Barkmeijer, 2000: A short-range to early-medium-range ensemble prediction system for the European area. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 3501-3519.
19. Hsu, K., H. V. Gupta, and S. Sorooshian, 1995: Artificial neural network modeling of the rainfall-runoff process. Water Resour. Res., 31, 2517-2530.
20. Jankov, I., P. J. Schultz, C. J. Anderson, and S. E. Koch, 2007: The impact of different physical parameterizations and their interactions on cold season QPF in the American River basin. J. Hydrometeor., 8, 1141-1151.
21. Jian, G.-J., and J. A. McGinley, 2005: Evaluation of a short-range forecast system on quantitative precipitation forecasts associated with tropical cyclones of 2003 near Taiwan. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 83, 657-681.
22. Jian, G.-J., S.-L. Shieh, and J. A. McGinley, 2003: Precipitation simulation associated with Typhoon Sinlaku (2002) in Taiwan area using the LAPS diabatic initialization for MM5. Terr. Atmos. Oceanic Sci., 14, 261-288.
23. Jolliffe, I. T., and D. B. Stephenson, Eds., 2003: Forecast Verification: A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science. Wiley, 240 pp.
24. Juang, H.-M. H., and M. Kanamitsu, 1994: The NMC nested regional spectral model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 122, 3-26.
25. Krishnamurti, T. N., and Coauthors, 1999: Improved weather and seasonal climate forecasts from multimodel superensemble. Science, 285, 1548-1550.
26. Kuligowski, R. J., and A. P. Barros, 1998: Localized precipitation forecasts from a numerical weather prediction model using artificial neural networks. Wea. Forecasting, 13, 1194-1204.
27. Lewis, J., 2005: Roots of ensemble forecasting. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 1865-1885.
28. Lin, Y.-L., R. D. Farley, and H. D. Orville, 1983: Bulk scheme of the snow field in a cloud model. J. Climate Appl. Meteor., 22, 1065-1092.
29. Lu, C., H. Yuan, B. Schwartz, and S. Benjamin, 2007: Short-range forecast using time-lagged ensembles. Wea. Forecasting, 22, 580-595.
30. Mass, C. F., 2003: IFPS and the future of the National Weather Service. Wea. Forecasting, 18, 75-79.
31. Molteni, F., R. Buizza, T. N. Palmer, and T. Petroliagis, 1996: The ECMWF ensemble prediction system: Methodology and validation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 122, 73-119.
32. Mullen, S. L., and R. Buizza, 2001: Quantitative precipitation forecasts over the United States by the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 638-663.
33. Mullen, S. L., and, R. Buizza, 2004: Calibration of probabilistic precipitation forecasts from the ECMWF EPS by an artificial neural network. Preprints, 17th Conf. on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, Seattle, WA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., J5.6. [Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ams/htsearch.cgi.]
34. Mullen, S. L., M. Poulton, H. E. Brooks, and T. M. Hamill, 1998: Post-processing of ETA/RSM ensemble precipitation forecasts by a neural network. Preprints, First Conf. on Artificial Intelligence, Phoenix, AZ, Amer. Meteor. Soc., J31-J33.
35. Murphy, A. H., and R. L. Winkler, 1987: A general framework for forecast verification. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 1330-1338.
36. Palmer, P. L., 1988: The SCS snow survey water supply forecasting program: Current operations and future directions. Proc. 56th Annual Western Snow Conf., Kalispell, MT, Western Snow Conference, 43-51.
37. Pielke, R. A., and M. W. Downton, 2000: Precipitation and damaging floods: Trends in the United States, 1932-97. J. Climate, 13, 3625-3637.
38. Pugner, P. E., 2003: Forecast based operations, Folsom Dam, CA. Proc. 2003 California Weather Symp., Sacramento, CA, U.S. Army Corp of Engineers. [Available online at http://www.arwi.us/precip/2003.php.]
39. Ralph, F. M., and Coauthors, 1999: The California Land-falling Jets Experiment (CALJET): Objectives and design of a coastal atmosphere-ocean observing system deployed during a strong El Niño. Preprints, Third Symp. on Integrated Observing Systems, Dallas, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78-81.
40. Schultz, P., 1995: An explicit cloud physics parameterization for operational numerical weather prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 123, 3331-3343.
41. Stein, U., and P. Alpert, 1993: Factor separation in numerical simulations. J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 2107-2115.
42. Thompson, G., R. M. Rasmussen, and K. Manning, 2004: Explicit forecasts of winter precipitation using an improved bulk microphysics scheme. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 519-542.
43. Toth, Z., and E. Kalnay, 1997: Ensemble forecasting at NCEP and the breeding method. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 3297-3319.
44. Vislocky, R. L., and J. M. Fritsch, 1997: Performance of an advanced MOS system in the 1996-97 national collegiate weather forecasting conference. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 2851-2857.
45. Wilks, D. S., 2006: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. 2nd ed. Academic Press, 627 pp.
46. Yuan, H., S. L. Mullen, X. Gao, S. Sorooshian, J. Du, and H. H. Juang, 2005: Verification of probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts over the southwest United States during winter 2002/03 by the RSM ensemble system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 279-294.
47. Yuan, H., X. Gao, S. L. Mullen, S. Sorooshian, J. Du, and H. H. Juang, 2007a: Calibration of probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts with an artificial neural network. Wea. Forecasting, 22, 1287-1303.
48. Yuan, H., S. L. Mullen, X. Gao, S. Sorooshian, J. Du, and H. H. Juang, 2007b: Short-range quantitative precipitation forecasts over the southwest United States by the RSM ensemble system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 1685-1698.