Is there an allegiance effect for assessment instruments? Actuarial risk assessment as an exemplar

Clinical Psychology: Science and Practice

Volumn 15, Issue 4, 2008, Pages 346-360

  Blair, Pamela R ^a   Marcus, David K ^b   Boccaccini, Marcus T ^c  

^a Market Research Division

^b UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI   (United States)

^c SAM HOUSTON STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Allegiance effect; Meta analysis; Risk assessment; SORAG; Static 99; VRAG

Indexed keywords

EID: 55149083152     PISSN: 09695893     EISSN: 14682850     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-2850.2008.00147.x     Document Type: Review

References (89)

1. Allan, A., Dawson, D., & Allan, M. A. (2006). Prediction of the risk of male sexual reoffending in Australia. Australian Psychologist, 41, 60-68.
2. Andrews, D., & Bonta, J. (1995). LSI-R: The Level of Service Inventory-Revised. Toronto, Canada: Multi-Health Systems.
3. Archer, R. P., Buffington-Vollum, J. K., Stredny, R. V., & Handel, R. W. (2006). A survey of psychological test use patterns among forensic psychologists. Journal of Personality Assessment, 87, 84-94.
4. Barbaree, H. E., Seto, M. C., Langton, C. M., & Peacock, E. J. (2001). Evaluating the predictive accuracy of six assessment instruments for adult sex offenders. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 28, 490-521.
5. Bartosh, D. L., Garby, T., Lewis, D., & Gray, S. (2003). Differences in the predictive validity of actuarial risk assessments in relation to sex offender type. International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, 47, 422-438.
6. Beech, A. R., Friendship, C., Erikson, M., & Hanson, R. K. (2002). Static and dynamic predictors of reconviction. Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment, 14, 155-167.
7. Bonta, J., Law, M., & Hanson, K. (1998). The prediction of criminal and violent recidivism among mentally disordered offenders: A meta-analysis. Psychological Bulletin, 123, 123-142.
8. Bonta, J., & Yessine, A. K. (2005). The national flagging system: Identifying and responding to high risk, violent offenders. (Cat. No.: PS3-1/2005-3E-PDF). Ottawa, Canada: Public Works and Government Sources Canada.
9. Boothby, J. L., & Clements, C. B. (2000). A national survey of correctional psychologists. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 27, 716-732.
10. Campbell, M. A., French, S., & Gendreau, P. (2007). Assessing the utility of risk assessment tools and personality measures in the prediction of violent recidivism for adult offenders (Cat. No.: PS3-1/ 2007-4E-PDF). Ottawa, Canada: Public Works and Government Sources Canada.
11. Craig, L. A., Beech, A., & Browne, K. D. (2006). Cross-validation of the Risk Matrix 2000 Sexual and Violent Scales. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 21, 612-633.
12. Craig, L. A., Browne, K. D., & Stringer, I. (2004). Comparing sex offender risk assessment measures on a UK sample. International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, 48, 7-27.
13. Craissati, J., & Beech, A. (2005). Risk prediction and failure in a complete urban sample of sex offenders. Journal of Forensic Psychiatry & Psychology, 16, 24-40.
14. Douglas, K. S., Yeomans, M., & Boer, D. P. (2005). Comparative validity analysis of multiple measures of violence risk in a sample of criminal offenders. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 32, 479-510.
15. Doyle, M., Dolan, M., & McGovern, J. (2002). The validity of North American risk assessment tools in predicting in-patient violent behaviour in England. Legal and Criminological Psychology, 7, 141-154.
16. Ducro, C., & Pham, T. (2006). Evaluation of the SORAG and the Static-99 on Belgian sex offenders committed to a forensic facility. Sexual Abuse: Journal of Research and Treatment, 18, 15-26.
17. Edens, J. F., & Otto, R. K. (2001). Release decision making and planning. In J. B. Ashford, B. D. Sales, & W. H. Reid (Eds.), Treating adult and juvenile offenders with special needs (pp. 335-371). Washington, DC: American Psychological Association.
18. Exner, J. E. (2002). The Rorschach: Basic foundations and principles of interpretation (4th ed.). New York: Wiley.
19. Field, A. P. (2003). The problems in using fixed-effects models of meta-analysis on real-world data. Understanding Statistics, 2, 105-124.
20. Garb, H. N., Wood, J. M., Lilienfeld, S. O., & Nezworski, M. T. (2005). Roots of the Rorschach controversy. Clinical Psychology Review, 25, 97-118.
21. Glover, A. J. J., Nicholson, D. E., Hemmati, T., Bernfeld, G. A., & Quinsey, V. L. (2002). A comparison of predictors of general and violent recidivism among high-risk federal offenders. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 29, 235-249.
22. Grann, M., Belfrage, H., & Tengström, A. (2000). Actuarial assessment of risk for violence: Predictive validity of the VRAG and the historical part of the HCR-20. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 27, 97-114.
23. Grove, W. M., & Meehl, P. E. (1996). Comparative efficiency of informal (subjective, impressionistic) and formal (mechanical, algorithmic) prediction procedures: The clinical-statistical controversy. Psychology, Public Policy, and Law, 2, 293-323.
24. Grove, W. M., Zald, D. H., Lebow, B. S., Snitz, B. E., & Nelson, C. (2000). Clinical versus mechanical prediction: A meta-analysis. Psychological Assessment, 12, 19-30.
25. Grubin, D. (1998). Sex offending against children: Understanding the risk (Police Research Series Paper 99). London: Home Office.
26. Guy, L. S., Edens, J. F., Anthony, C., & Douglas, K. S. (2005). Does psychopathy predict institutional misconduct among adults? A meta-analytic investigation. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 73, 1056-1064.
27. Hanson, R. K. (1997). The development of a brief actuarial risk scale for sexual offense recidivism (User Report 97-04). Ottawa, Canada: Department of the Solicitor General of Canada.
28. Hanson, R. K., & Harris, A. J. R. (2000). Where should we intervene? Dynamic predictors of sexual offense recidivism. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 27, 6-35.
29. Hanson, R. K., Morton, K. E., & Harris, A. J. R. (2003). Sexual offender recidivism risk: What we know and what we need to know. In R. A Prentky, E. S. Janus, & M. C. Seto (Eds.), Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, Vol. 989. Sexually coercive behavior: Understanding and management (pp. 154-166). New York: New York Academy of Sciences.
30. Hanson, R. K., & Morton-Bourgon, K. (2004). Predictors of sexual recidivism: An updated meta-analysis (Cat. No.: PS3-1/2004-2E-PDF). Ottawa, Canada: Public Works and Government Sources Canada.
31. Hanson, R. K., & Morton-Bourgon, K. E. (2005). The characteristics of persistent sexual offenders: A meta-analysis of recidivism studies. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 73, 1154-1163.
32. Hanson, R. K., & Thornton, D. (1999). Static-99: Improving actuarial risk assessments for sex offenders (User Report No. 1999-02). Ottawa, Canada: Department of the Solicitor General of Canada.
33. Hanson, R. K., & Thornton, D. (2000). Improving risk assessments for sex offenders: A comparison of three actuarial scales. Law and Human Behavior, 24, 119-136.
34. Hare, R. D. (2003). The Psychopathy Checklist-Revised manual (2nd ed.). Toronto, Canada: Multi-Health Systems.
35. Harris, A., Phenix, A., Hanson, R. K., & Thornton, D. (2003). Static-99 coding rules revised-2003. Retrieved October 22, 2007, from http://ww2.pssp.gc.ca/publications/corrections/pdf/ Static-99-coding-Rules_e.pdf
36. Harris, G. T., Rice, M. E., & Camilleri, J. A. (2004). Applying a forensic actuarial assessment (the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide) to nonforensic patients. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 19, 1063-1074.
37. Harris, G. T., Rice, M. E., & Cormier, C. A. (2002). Prospective replication of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide in predicting violent recidivism among forensic patients. Law and Human Behavior, 26, 377-394.
38. Harris, G. T., Rice, M. E., & Quinsey, V. L. (1993). Violent recidivism of mentally disordered offenders: The development of a statistical prediction instrument. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 20, 315-335.
39. Harris, G. T., Rice, M. E., Quinsey, V. L., Lalumière, M. L., Boer, D., & Lang, C. (2003). A multisite comparison of actuarial risk instruments for sex offenders. Psychological Assessment, 15, 413-425.
40. Hedges, L. V., & Olkin, I. (1985). Statistical methods for meta analysis. Orlando, FL: Academic Press.
41. Hedges, L. V., & Vevea, J. L. (1998). Fixed- and random-effects models in meta-analysis. Psychological Methods, 3, 486-504.
42. Hunter, J. E., & Schmidt, F. L. (1990). Methods of meta-analysis: Correcting error and bias in research findings. Newbury Park, CA: Sage.
43. Jackson, R. L., & Hess, D. T. (2007). Evaluation of civil commitment of sex offenders: A survey of experts. Sex Abuse, 19, 425-448.
44. Kiesler, D. (1966). Some myths of psychotherapy research and the search for a paradigm. Psychological Bulletin, 65, 110-136.
45. Kroner, D. G., & Loza, W. (2001). Evidence for the efficacy of self-report in predicting nonviolent and violent criminal recidivism. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 16, 168-177.
46. Kroner, D. G., & Mills, J. F. (2001). The accuracy of five risk appraisal instruments in predicting institutional misconduct and new convictions. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 28, 471-489.
47. Lally, S. J. (2003). What tests are acceptable for use in forensic evaluations? A survey of experts. Professional Psychology: Research and Practice, 34, 491-498.
48. Långström, N. (2004). Accuracy of actuarial procedures for assessment of sexual offender recidivism risk may vary across ethnicity. Sexual Abuse: Journal of Research and Treatment, 16, 107-120.
49. Langton, C. M., Barbaree, H. E., Seto, M. C., Peacock, E. J., Harkins, L., & Hansen, K. T. (2007). Actuarial assessment of risk for reoffense among adult sex offenders: Evaluating the predictive accuracy of the Static-2002 and five other instruments. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 34, 37-59.
50. Lestico, A. R., Salekin, R. T., deCoster, J., & Rogers, R. (2008). A large-scale meta-analysis relating the Hare measures of psychopathy to antisocial conduct. Law and Human Behavior, 32, 28-45.
51. Lipsey, M. W., & Wilson, D. B. (2001). Practical meta-analysis. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
52. Looman, J. (2006). Comparison of two risk assessment instruments for sexual offenders. Sexual Abuse: Journal of Research and Treatment, 18, 193-206.
53. Loza, W., & Loza-Fanous, A. (2001). The effectiveness of the Self-Appraisal Questionnaire in predicting offenders'postrelease outcome: A comparison study. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 28, 105-121.
54. Loza, W., Villeneuve, D. B., & Loza-Fanous, A. (2002). Predictive validity of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide: A tool for assessing violent offender's recidivism. International Journal of Law and Psychiatry, 25, 85-92.
55. Luborsky, L., Diguer, L., Seligman, D. A., Rosenthal, R., Krause, E. D., Johnson, S., et al. (1999). The researcher's own therapy allegiances: A "wild card"in comparisons of treatment efficacy. Clinical Psychology: Science and Practice, 6, 95-106.
56. Luborsky, L., Rosenthal, R., Diguer, L., Andrusyna, T. P., Berman, J. S., Levitt, J. T., et al. (2002). The dodo bird verdict is alive and well-mostly. Clinical Psychology: Science and Practice, 9, 2-12.
57. Mills, J. F., Jones, M. N., & Kroner, D. G. (2005). An examination of the generalizability of the LSI-R and VRAG probability bins. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 32, 565-585.
58. Monahan, J., Steadman, H. J., Appelbaum, P. S., Grisso, T., Mulvey, E. P., Roth, L. H., et al. (2005). COVR: Classification of Violence Risk. Lutz, FL: Psychological Assessment Resources.
59. Mossman, D. (1994). Assessing predictions of violence: Being accurate about accuracy. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 62, 783-792.
60. Murrie, D. C., Boccaccini, M. T., Johnson, J., & Janke, C. (2008). Does interrater (dis)agreement on Psychopathy Checklist Scores in sexually violent predator trials suggest partisan allegiance in forensic evaluations? Law and Human Behavior, 32, 352-362.
61. Nunes, K. L., Firestone, P., Bradford, J. M., Greenberg, D. M., & Broom, I. (2002). A comparison of modified versions of the Static-99 and the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide. Sexual abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment, 14, 253-269.
62. Pedhazur, E. J. (1997). Multiple regression in behavioral research (3rd ed.). Fort Worth, TX: Harcourt Brace.
63. Prendergast, M. L., Podus, D., Chang, E., & Urada, D. (2002). The effectiveness of drug abuse treatment: A meta-analysis of comparison group studies. Drug and Alcohol Dependence, 67, 53-72.
64. Quinsey, V. L., Harris, G. T., Rice, M. E., & Cormier, C. A. (1998). Violent offenders: Appraising and managing risk. Washington, DC: American Psychological Association.
65. Quinsey, V. L., Rice, M. E., & Harris, G. T. (1995). Actuarial prediction of sexual recidivism. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 10, 85-105.
66. Rice, M. E., & Harris, G. T. (1997). Cross-validation and extension of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide for child molesters and rapists. Law and Human Behavior, 21, 231-241.
67. Rice, M. E., & Harris, G. T. (2002). Men who molest their sexually immature daughters: Is a special explanation required? Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 111, 329-339.
68. Rice, M. E., & Harris, G. T. (2005). Comparing effect sizes in follow-up studies: ROC area, Cohen's d, and r. Law and Human Behavior, 29, 615-620.
69. Rice, M. E., Harris, G. T., Lang, C. L., & Cormier, C. C. (2006). Violent sex offenses: How are they best measured from official records? Law and Human Behavior, 30, 525-541.
70. Rosenthal, R. (1979). The file drawer problem and tolerance for null results. Psychological Bulletin, 86, 638-641.
71. Rosenthal, R. (1991). Meta-analytic procedures for social research. Newbury Park, CA: Sage.
72. Rosenthal, R. (1994). Interpersonal expectancy effects: A 30-year perspective. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 3, 176-179.
73. Rosenthal, R., & DiMatteo, M. R. (2001). Meta-analysis: Recent developments in quantitative methods for literature reviews. Annual Review of Psychology, 52, 59-82.
74. Rosenthal, R., & Rubin, D. B. (1978). Interpersonal expectancy effects: The first 345 studies. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 1, 377-415.
75. Seager, J. A., Jellicoe, D., & Dhaliwal, G. K. (2004). Refusers, dropouts, and completers: Measuring sex offender treatment efficacy. International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, 48, 600-612.
76. Shoham, V., & Rohrbaugh, M. J. (1999). Beyond allegiance to comparative outcome studies. Clinical Psychology: Science and Practice, 6, 120-123.
77. Sjöstedt, G., & Långström, N. (2001). Actuarial assessment of sex offender recidivism risk: A cross-validation of the RRASOR and the Static-99 in Sweden. Law and Human Behavior, 25, 629-645.
78. Sjöstedt, G., & Långström, N. (2002). Assessment of risk for criminal recidivism among rapists: A comparison of four different measures. Psychology, Crime & Law, 8, 25-40.
79. Smith, M. L., Glass, G. V., & Miller, T. (1980). The benefits of psychotherapy. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.
80. Soothill, K., Harman, J., Francis, B., & Kirby, S. (2005). Identifying future repeat danger from sexual offenders against children: A focus on those convicted and those strongly suspected of such crime. Journal of Forensic Psychiatry & Psychology, 16, 225-247.
81. Stadtland, C., Hollweg, M., Kleindienst, N., Dietl, J., Reich, U., & Nedopil, N. (2005). Risk assessment and prediction of violent and sexual recidivism in sex offenders: Long-term predictive validity of four risk assessment instruments. Journal of Forensic Psychiatry & Psychology, 16, 92-108.
82. Tengström, A. (2001). Long-term predictive validity of historical factors in two risk assessment instruments in a group of violent offenders with schizophrenia. Nordic Journal of Psychiatry, 55, 243-249.
83. Tolman, A. O., & Mullendore, K. B. (2003). Risk evaluations for the courts: Is service quality a function of specialization? Professional Psychology: Research and Practice, 34, 225-232.
84. Urbaniok, F., Noll, T., Grunewald, S., Steinbach, J., & Endrass, J. (2006). Prediction of violent and sexual offences: A replication study of the VRAG in Switzerland. Journal of Forensic Psychiatry & Psychology, 17, 23-31.
85. Van den Noortgate, W., & Onghena, P. (2003). Multilevel meta-analysis: A comparison with traditional meta-analytical procedures. Educational and Psychological Measurement, 63, 765-790.
86. de Vogel, V., de Ruiter, C., van Beek, D., & Mead, G. (2004). Predictive validity of the SVR-20 and Static-99 in a Dutch sample of treated sex offenders. Law and Human Behavior, 28, 235-251.
87. Webster, C. D., Douglas, K. S., Eaves, D., & Hart, S. D. (1997). HCR-20: Assessing Risk for Violence (Version 2). Burnaby, Canada: Simon Fraser University, Mental Health, Law, and Policy Institute.
88. Westen, D., & Morrison, K. (2001). A multidimensional meta-analysis of treatments for depression, panic, and generalized anxiety disorder: An empirical examination of the status of empirically supported therapies. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 69, 875-899.
89. Yessine, A. K., & Bonta, J. (2006). Tracking high-risk, violent offenders: An examination of the national flagging system. Canadian Journal of Criminology and Criminal Justice, 48, 573-607.