Risk assessment and prediction of violent and sexual recidivism in sex offenders: Long-term predictive validity of four risk assessment instruments

Journal of Forensic Psychiatry and Psychology

Volumn 16, Issue 1, 2005, Pages 92-108

  Stadtland, Cornelis ^a   Hollweg, Matthias ^b   Kleindienst, Nikolaus ^c   Dietl, Julia ^a   Reich, Ursula ^a   Nedopil, Norbet ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF MUNICH   (Germany)

^b Prison Munich Stadelheim ^*  (Germany)

^c LUDWIG MAXIMILIANS UNIVERSITY   (Germany)

Author keywords

Instruments; Predictive validity; Risk assessment; Sex offenders; Sexual recidivism; Violence

Indexed keywords

ADULT; ARTICLE; CONTROLLED STUDY; FOLLOW UP; GERMANY; HIGH RISK POPULATION; HUMAN; INDIVIDUALITY; INTERMETHOD COMPARISON; KAPLAN MEIER METHOD; LONGITUDINAL STUDY; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; MALE; MENTAL HOSPITAL; OBSERVATION; OUTCOMES RESEARCH; PARTNER VIOLENCE; PATIENT SELECTION; PREDICTION; PRIORITY JOURNAL; PRISON; PSYCHOLOGIC ASSESSMENT; PSYCHOSOCIAL CARE; PSYCHOTHERAPY; RECIDIVISM; REGISTER; RISK ASSESSMENT; SEXUAL CRIME; STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE; VALIDATION PROCESS;

EID: 23944470412     PISSN: 14789949     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/1478994042000270247     Document Type: Article

References (52)

1. Barbaree, H. E., Seto, M. C., Langton, C. M., & Peacock, E. J. (2001). Evaluating the predictive accuracy of six risk assessment instruments for adult sex offenders. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 28, 490-521.
2. Bartosh, D. L., Garby, T., Lewis, D., & Gray, S. (2003). Differences in the predictive validity of actuarial risk assessments in relation to sex offender type. International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, 47, 422-438.
3. Beier, K. M. (1995). Dissexualität im Lebenslängsschnitt. In H. Hippius, W. Janzarik, & C. Mülller (Eds.), Monographien aus dem Gesmtgebiet der Psychiatrie, Band 78. Berlin, Heidelberg, New York: Springer-Verlag.
4. Berner, W., & Bolterauer, J. (1995). Five-year follow up study of 46 sex offenders discharged from a special treatment institution in prison. Recht und Psychiatrie, 13, 114-118.
5. Boer, D. R., Hart, S. D., Kropp, P. R., & Webster, C. D. (1997). Manual for the Sexual Violence Risk-20. Professional guidelines for assessing risk of sexual violence. Vancouver, British Columbia: Institute Against Family Violence.
6. Dempster, R. J., & Hart, S. D. (2002). The relative utility of fixed and variable risk factors in discriminating sexual recidivists and nonrecidivists. Sexual Abuse, 14, 121-138; discussion 195-197.
7. Dolan, M., & Doyle, M. (2000). Violence risk prediction. Clinical and actuarial measures and the role of the Psychopathy Checklist. British Journal of Psychiatry, 177, 303-311.
8. Douglas, K. S., Ogloff, J. R., & Hart, S. D. (2003). Evaluation of a model of violence risk assessment among forensic psychiatric patients. Psychiatric Services, 54, 1372-1379.
9. Egg, R. (2001). Rückfälligkeit nach sexuellen Gewalt-und Missbrauchsdelikten - empirische Erkenntnisse und praktische Konsequenzen. In J. H. Mauthe, (Ed.), Prävention in Psychiatrie und Psychotherapie. Axept Verlag, Königslutter.
10. Elz, J. (2001). Legalbewährung und kriminelle Karrieren von Sexualstraftätern: Sexuelle Missbrauchsdelikte. Kriminologische Zentralstelle Kriminologie und Praxis, Bd.33: Wiesbaden.
11. Fagan, P. J., Wise, T. N., Schmidt, C. W., Jr., & Berlin, F. S. (2002). Pedophilia. JAMA, 288, 2458-265.
12. Firestone, P., Bradford, J. M., McCoy, M., Greenberg, D. M., Curry, S., & Larose, M. R. (1998). Recidivism in convicted rapists. Journal of the American Academy of Psychiatry and Law, 26, 185-200.
13. Firestone, P., Bradford, J. M., McCoy, M., Greenberg, D. M., Curry, S., & Larose, M. R. (2000). Prediction of recidivism in extrafamilial child molesters based on court-related assessments. Sexual Abuse, 12, 203-221.
14. Fleming, T. R., & Lin, D. Y. (2000). Survival analysis in clinical trials: Past developments and future directions. Biometrics, 56, 971-983.
15. Furby, L., Weinrott, M. R., & Blackshaw, L. (1989). Sex offender recidivism: a review. Psychological Bulletin, 105, 3-30.
16. Grann, M., Langstrom, N., Tengstrom, A., & Stalenheim, E. G. (1998). Reliability of file-based retrospective ratings of psychopathy with the PCL-R. Journal of Personality Assessment, 70, 416-426.
17. Greenberg, D., Bradford, J., Firestone, P., & Curry, S. (2000). Recidivism of child molesters: a study of victim relationship with the perpetrator. Child Abuse and Neglect, 24, 1485-1494.
18. Greenberg, S. R., Firestone, P., Bradford, J. M., & Greenberg, D. M. (2002). Prediction of recidivism in exhibitionists: psychological, phallometric and offense factors. Sexual Abuse, 14, 329-347.
19. Grossman, L. S., Martis, B., & Fichtner, C. G. (1999). Are sex offenders treatable? A research overview. Psychiatric Services, 50, 349-361.
20. Hall, G. C. (1995). Sexual offender recidivism revisited: a meta-analysis of recent treatment studies. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 63, 802-809.
21. Hanley, J. A., & McNeil, B. J. (1982a). Maximum attainable discrimination and the utilization of radiologic examinations. Journal of Chronic Diseases, 35, 601-611.
22. Hanley, J. A., & McNeil, B. J. (1982b). The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Radiology, 143, 29-36.
23. Hanson, R. K. (1997). The development of a brief actuarial risk scale for sexual offense recidivism (User report 1997-04). Department of Solicitor General of Canada, Ottawa.
24. Hanson, R. K. (2002). Introduction to the special section on dynamic risk assessment with sex offenders. Sexual Abuse, 14, 99-101; discussion 195-197.
25. Hanson, R. K., & Bussiere, M. T. (1998). Predicting relapse: a meta-analysis of sexual offender recidivism studies. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 66, 348-362.
26. Hanson, R. K., Gordon, A., Harris, A. J., Marques, J. K., Murphy, W., Quinsey, V. L., & Seto, M. C. (2002). First report of the collaborative outcome data project on the effectiveness of psychological treatment for sex offenders. Sexual Abuse, 14, 169-194; discussion 195-197.
27. Hanson, R. K., Morton, K. E., & Harris, A. J. (2003). Sexual offender recidivism risk: what we know and what we need to know. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 989, 154-166; discussion 236-246.
28. Hanson, R. K., & Thornton, D. (1999). Static 99: Improving actuarial risk assessments for sex offenders. User report 1999-02 Department of the Solicitor General of Canada, Ottawa.
29. Hanson, R. K., & Thornton, D. (2000). Improving risk assessments for sex offenders: a comparison of three actuarial scales. Law and Human Behavior, 24, 119-136.
30. Hare, R. D. (1991). The Hare Psychopathy Checklist-Revised. Multi-Health Systems, Toronto.
31. Harris, G. T., & Rice, M. E. (2003). Actuarial assessment of risk among sex offenders. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 989, 198-210; discussion 236-246.
32. Harris, G. T., Rice, M. E., Quinsey, V. L., Lalumiere, M. L., Boer, D., & Lang, C. (2003). A multisite comparison of actuarial risk instruments for sex offenders. European Journal of Psychological Assessments, 15, 413-425.
33. Hart, S. D. (1998). The role of psychopathy in assessing risk for violence: Conceptual and methodological issuses. Legal and Criminological Psychology, 3, 121-137.
34. Hartmann, J., Hollweg, M., & Nedopil, N. (2001). Quantitative detection of dyssocial and psychopathic personalities in criminal expert assessment. Retrospective study of the value of the German version of the Hare Psychopathy Checklist. Nervenarzt, 72, 365-370.
35. Kahn, T. J., & Chambers, H. J. (1991). Assessing reoffense risk with juvenile sexual offenders. Child Welfare, 70, 333-345.
36. Lösel, F. (1998). Evaluation der Straftäterbehandlug: Was wir noch erforschen müssen. In R. Müller-Isberner, & G. Cabeza, (Eds.) Gießener Kriminalwissenschaftliche Schriften. Mönchengladbach: Forum Verlag.
37. Lösel, F., Köferl, P., & Weber, F. (1987). Meta-Evaluation der Sozialtherapie. Qualitative und quantitative Analysen zur Behandlungsforschung in sozialtherapeutischen Anstalten des Justizvollzuges. Stuttgart: Enke.
38. Marques, J. K., Wiederanders, M., Day, D. M., Nelson, C., & van Ommeren, A. (2005). Effects of a relapse prevention program on sexual recidivism: Final results from California's Sex Offender Treatment and Evaluation Project (SOTEP). Sexual Abuse, 17, 79-107.
39. Meehl, P. E. (1986). Causes and effects of my disturbing little book. Journal of Personality Assessment, 50, 370-375.
40. Meehl, P. E. (2002). Cliometric metatheory: II. Criteria scientists use in theory appraisal and why it is rational to do so. Psychological Reports, 91, 339-404.
41. Muller-Isberner, R., Freese, R., Jockel, D., & Gonzalez Cabeza, S. (2000a). Forensic psychiatric assessment and treatment in Germany. Legal framework, recent developments and current practice. International Journal of Law and Psychiatry, 23, 467-480.
42. Müller-Isberner, R., Gonzalez Cabeza, S., & Eucker, S. (2000b). Die Vorhersage sexueller Gewalttaten mit dem SVR 20. Haina: Institut für Forensische Psychiatrie Haina.
43. Nedopil, N. (2001). Prediction recidivism in criminal offenders. Psycho, 7, 363-9.
44. Nedopil, N., Grassl, P., & Mende, W. (1987). The Forensic Psychiatric Documentation System (FPDS) Development and initial application in penal expertise. Acta Psychiatrica Belgica, 87, 98-113.
45. Nunes, K. L., Firestone, P., Bradford, J. M., Greenberg, D. M., & Broom, I. (2002). A comparison of modified versions of the Static-99 and the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide. Sexual Abuse, 14, 253-269.
46. Prentky, R. A., Lee, A. F., Knight, R. A., & Cerce, D. (1997). Recidivism rates among child molesters and rapists: a methodological analysis. Law and Human Behavior, 21, 635-659.
47. Rice, M. E., & Harris, G. T. (1995). Violent Recidivism: Assessing Predictive Validity. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 63, 737-748.
48. Rice, M. E., Quinsey, V. L., & Harris, G. T. (1991). Sexual recidivism among child molesters released from a maximum security psychiatric institution. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 59, 381-386.
49. Sjostedt, G., & Langstrom, N. (2001). Actuarial assessment of sex offender recidivism risk: a cross-validation of the RRASOR and the Static-99 in Sweden. Law and Human Behavior, 25, 629-645.
50. Thornton, D., Mann, R., Webster, S., Blud, L., Travers, R., Friendship, C., & Erikson, M. (2003). Distinguishing and combining risks for sexual and violent recidivism. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 989, 225-235; discussion 236-246.
51. Webster, C. D., Eaves, D., Douglas, K. S., & Wintrup, A. (1995). The HCR-20 scheme: The assesment of dangerousness and risk. Vancouver, Canada: Simon Fraser University and British Columbia Forensic Psychiatric Services Commission.
52. Worling, J. R., & Curwen, T. (2000). Adolescent sexual offender recidivism: success of specialized treatment and implications for risk prediction. Child Abuse and Neglect, 24, 965-982.