Exploring multi-model atmospheric GCM ensembles with ANOVA

Climate Dynamics

Volumn 31, Issue 7-8, 2008, Pages 973-986

  Hodson, D L R ^a   Sutton, R T ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF READING   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Analysis of variance; ANOVA; Multi model ensembles; Potential predictability

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE MODELING; CLIMATE PREDICTION; COMPUTER SIMULATION; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; SEA LEVEL PRESSURE; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS; TELECONNECTION;

PACIFIC OCEAN; PACIFIC OCEAN (NORTHWEST);

EID: 54949100438     PISSN: 09307575     EISSN: 14320894     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-008-0372-z     Document Type: Article

References (27)

1. Allan R, Ansell T (2006) A new globally-complete monthly historical gridded mean sea level pressure data set (hadslp2): 1850-2004. J Clim 19:2717-2742
2. Anderson J, Stern W (1996) Evaluating the potential predictive utility of ensemble forecasts. J Clim 9:260-269
3. Conil S, Li Z (2003) Influence of the north atlantic on simulated atmospheric variability. Ann Geophys 46:57-67
4. Copsey D, Sutton R, Knight J (2006) Recent trends in sea level pressure in the indian ocean region. Geophys Res Lett 33. URL doi: 10.1029/ 2006GL027175
5. Déqué M, Dreveton C, Braun A, Cariolle D (1994) The arpege/ ifs atmosphere model: A contribution to the french community climate modelling. Clim Dyn 10:249-266
6. Hoel PG (1985) Introduction to mathematical statistics. Wiley (WIE), New York, iSBN: 0471805300
7. Houghton J, Ding Y, Griggs D, Noguer M, van der Linden P, Xiaosu D (2001) Climate change 2001: The scientific basis. Cambridge University Press, London
8. Lau N-C (1985) Modeling the seasonal dependence of the atmospheric response to observed el ninos in 1962-76. Mon Weav Rev 113:1970-1996
9. Li J-F, Koehler M, Farrara J, Mechoso C (2002) The impact of stratocumulus cloud radiative properties on surface heat fluxes simulated with a general circulation model. Mon Weav Rev 130:1433-1441
10. Moore DS, McCabe GP (2002) Introduction to the Practice of Statistics. W.H. Freeman, San Francisco, iSBN: 0716796570
11. Murphy J, Sexton D, Barnett D, Jones G, Webb M, Collins M, Stainforth D (2004) Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations. Nature 430:768-772. doi: 10.1038/nature02771
12. Paeth H, Hense A (2002) Sensitivity of climate change signals deduced from multi-model monte carlo experiments. Clim Res 22:189-204
13. Palmer T, Alessandri A, Andersen U, Cantelaube P, Davey M, Délécluse P, Déqué M, Díez E, Doblas-Reyes F, Feddersen H, Graham R, Gualdi S, Guérémy J-F, Hagedorn R, Hoshen M, Keenlyside N, Latif M, Lazar A, Maisonnave E, Marletto V, Morse AP, Orfila B, Rogel P, Terres J-M, Thomson MC (2004) Development of a european multi-model ensemble system for seasonal to inter-annual prediction (demeter). Bull Am Met Soc 85:853-872
14. Pope V, Gallani M, Rowntree P, Stratton R (2000) The impact of new physical parametrizations in the hadley centre climate model: Hadam3. Clim Dyn 16:123-146
15. Rauthe M, Hense A, Paeth H (2004) A model intercomparison study of climate change in extratropical circulation. Int J Climatol 24:643-662
16. Rayner N, Parker D, Horton E, Folland C, Alexander L, Rowell D, Kent E, Kaplan A (2003) Global analyses of sst, sea ice and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J Geophys Res Atmos 108:4407. doi: 10.1029/2002JD002670
17. Roeckner E, Bengtsson L, Feichter J, Lelieveld J, Rodhe H (1999) Transient climate change simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean gcm including the tropospheric sulfur cycle. J Clim 12:3004-3032
18. Roeckner E, Brokopf R, Esch M, Giorgetta M, Hagemann S, Kornblueh L, Manzini E, Schlese U, Schulzweida U (2006) Sensitivity of simulated climate to horizontal and vertical resolution in the echam5 atmosphere model. J Clim 19:3771-3791
19. Rowell DP (1998) Assessing potential seasonal predictability with an ensemble of multidecadal gcm simulations. J Clim 11:109-120
20. Scheffé H (1959) The analysis of variance. Wiley, New York
21. Shukla J, Gutzler D (1983) Interannual variability and predictability of 500 mb geopotential heights over the northern hemisphere. Mon Weav Rev 111:1273-1279
22. Shukla J, Anderson J, Baumhefner D, Brankovic C, Chang Y, Kalnay E, Marx L, Palmer T, Paolino D, Ploshay J, Schubert S, Straus D, Suarez M, Tribbia J (2000) Dynamical seasonal prediction. Bull Am Met Soc 81:2593-2606
23. von Storch H, Zwiers FW (2002) Statistical analysis in climate research. Cambridge University Press, London, iSBN: 0521012309
24. Sutton R, Hodson D (2005) Atlantic ocean forcing of north american and european summer climate. Science 309:115-118
25. Zwiers F (1987) A potential predictability study conducted with an atmospheric general circulation model. Mon Weav Rev 115:2957-2974
26. Zwiers F (1996) Interannual variability and predictability in an ensemble of amip climate simulations conducted with the ccc gcm2. Clim Dyn 12:825-847
27. Zwiers F, Wang X, Sheng J (2000) Effects of specifying bottom boundary conditions in an ensemble of atmosphere gcm simulations. J Geophys Res Atmos 105:7295-7315