Sensitivity of climate change signals deduced from multi-model Monte Carlo experiments

Climate Research

Volumn 22, Issue 3, 2002, Pages 189-204

  Paeth, Heiko ^a   Hense, Andreas ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF BONN   (Germany)

Author keywords

ANOVA; Climate change; Detection variable; Multi model ensemble; Signal to noise ratio

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; GREENHOUSE GAS; MONTE CARLO ANALYSIS; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS;

EID: 0037021169     PISSN: 0936577X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.3354/cr022189     Document Type: Article

References (41)

1. Barnett TP, Hegerl GC, Santer B, Taylor K (1998) The potential effect of GCM uncertainties and internal atmospheric variability on anthropogenic signal detection. J Clim 11: 659-675
2. Barnett TP, Hegerl GC, Knutson T, Tett SFB (2000) Uncertainty levels in predicted patterns of anthropogenic climate change. J Geophys Res 105(D12):15525-15542
3. Barnett TP, Pierce DW, Schnur R (2001) Detection of anthropogenic climate change in the world's oceans. Science 292:270-274
4. Brankovic C, Palmer TN, Molteni F, Tibaldi S, Cubasch U (1990) Extended range predictions with the ECMWF models: time lagged ensemble forecasting. Q J R Meteorol Soc 116:835-866
5. Chase TN, Pielke RA, Kittel TGF, Nemani RR, Running SW (2000) Simulated impacts of historical land cover changes on global climate in northern winter. Clim Dyn 16:93-105
6. Cubasch U, Santer BD, Hellbach A, Hegerl G, Höck H, Maier-Reimer E, Mikolajewicz U, Stössel A, Voss R (1994) Monte Carlo climate change forecasts with a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Clim Dyn 10:1-19
7. Flohn H, Kapala A, Knoche HR, Mächel H (1992) Water vapour as an amplifier of the greenhouse effect: new aspects. Meteorol Z NF 1:122-138
8. Giorgi F, Francisco R (2000) Uncertainties in regional climate change prediction: a regional analysis of ensemble simulations with the HADCM2 coupled AOGCM. Clim Dyn 16: 169-182
9. Hasselmann K (1979) On the signal-to-noise problem in atmospheric response studies. Shaw DB (coord) Meteorology over the tropical oceans. Royal Meteorological Society, Reading, p 251-259
10. Hasselmann K (1993) Optimal fingerprints for the detection of time-dependent climate change. J Clim 6:1957-1971
11. Hegerl GC, North GR (1997) Comparison of statistically optimal approaches to detecting anthropogenic climate change. J Clim 10:1125-1133
12. Hegerl GC, von Storch H, Hasselmann K, Santer BD, Cubasch U, Jones PD (1996) Detecting greenhouse-gas-induced climate change with an optimal fingerprint method. J Clim 9:2281-2306
13. Hegerl GC, Hasselmann K, Cubasch U, Mitchell JFB, Roeckner E, Voss R, Waszkewitz J (1997) Multi-fingerprint detection and attribution analysis of greenhouse gas, greenhouse gas-plus-aerosol and solar forced climate change. Clim Dyn 13:613-634
14. Hegerl GC, Stott PA, Allen MR, Mitchell JFB, Tett SFB, Cubasch U (2000) Optimal detection and attribution of climate change: sensitivity of results to climate model differences. Clim Dyn 16:737-754
15. Hegerl GC, Jones PD, Barnett TP (2001) Effect of observational sampling error on the detection of anthropogenic climate change. J Clim 14 198-207
16. Houghton JT, Jenkins GJ, Ephraums JJ (eds) (1990) Climate change. The IPCC Scientific Assessment. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
17. Houghton JT, Callandar BA, Varney SK (eds) (1992) Climate change 1992. The supplementary report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
18. Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ, Noguer M, Van der Linden PJ, Dai X, Maskell K, Johnson CA (eds) (2001) Climate change 2001. The scientific basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
19. Hulme M, Barrow EM, Arnell NW, Harrison PA, Johns TC, Downing TE (1999) Relative impacts of human-induced climate change and natural climate variability. Nature 397:688-691
20. Hunt BG (1998) Natural climatic variability as an explanation for historical climatic fluctuations. Clim Change 38: 133-157
21. Johns TC, Carnell RE, Crossley JF, Gregory JM, Mitchell JFB, Senior CA, Tett SFB, Wood RA (1997) The second Hadley Centre coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM: model description, spinup, and validation. Clim Dyn 13:103-134
22. Jones PD, New M, Parker DE, Martin S, Rigor IG (1999) Surface air temperature and its changes over the past 150 years. Rev Geophys 37: 173-199
23. 2. Clim Dyn 13:847-864
24. Kharin VV, Zwiers FW, (2002) Climate predictions with multimodel ensembles. J Clim 15:793-799
25. 2 climate. J Clim 13:1313-1325
26. Mahlman JD (1997) Uncertainties in projections of human-caused climate warming. Science 278:1416-1417
27. North GR, Stevens MJ (1998) Detecting climate signals in the surface temperature record. J Clim 11:563-577
28. Osborn TJ, Briffa KR, Tett SFB, Jones PD, Trigo RM (1999) Evaluation of the North Atlantic Oscillation as simulated by a coupled climate model. Clim Dyn 15:685-702
29. Paeth H, Hense A (2001) Signal analysis of the atmospheric mean 500/1000 hPa temperature north of 55° N between 1949 and 1994. Clim Dyn 18:345-358
30. Paeth H, Hense A, Glowienka-Hense R, Voss R, Cubasch U (1999) The North Atlantic Oscillation as an indicator for greenhouse-gas induced climate change. Clim Dyn 15: 953-960
31. Paeth H, Hense A, Hagenbrock R (2002) Comments on 'Twentieth-century trends of Arctic precipitation from observational data and a climate model simulation'. J Clim 15:800-803
32. Roeckner E, Arpe K, Bengtsson L, Brinkop S, Dümenil Land 9 others (1992) Simulation of the present-day climate with the ECHAM model: impact of model physics and resolution. Rep No. 93, Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg
33. Santer BD, Taylor KE, Wigley TML, Johns TC and 9 others (1996) A search for human influence on the thermal structure of the atmosphere. Nature 382:39-46
34. Scheffé H (1963) The analysis of variance. Wiley, New York
35. Schneider T, Held IM (2001) Discriminants of twentieth-century changes in Earth surface temperature. J Clim 14:249-254
36. Ulbrich U, Christoph M (1999) A shift of the NAO and increasing strom track activity over Europe due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing. Clim Dyn 15:551-559
37. von Storch H (2001) Statistics: an indispensable tool in dynamical modelling. In: von Storch H, Flöser G (eds) Models in environmental modelling. GKSS School of Environmental Research, Geesthacht, and Springer-Verlag, Berlin, p 203-217
38. von Storch H, Bray D (1999) Perspectives of climate scientists on global change. Conference Proceedings, Climate change policy in Germany and the United States, Berlin, June 15-18, 1997. Publ German Am Acad Counc 7:33-48
39. von Storch H, Zwiers FW (1999) Statistical analysis in climate research. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
40. Voss R, Sausen R, Cubasch U (1998) Periodically synchronously coupled integrations with the atmosphere-ocean general circulation model ECHAM3/LSG. Clim Dyn 14:249-266
41. Wibig J (1999) Precipitation in Europe in relation to circulation patterns at 500 hPa level. Int J Climatol 19:253-269