Predicting super spreading events during the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome epidemics in Hong Kong and Singapore

American Journal of Epidemiology

Volumn 160, Issue 8, 2004, Pages 719-728

  Li, Yuguo ^a   Yu, Ignatius T S ^b   Xu, Pengcheng ^c   Lee, J H W ^a   Tze, Wai Wong ^b   Peng, Lim Ooi ^d,e   Sleigh, Adrian C ^f  

^a UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG   (Hong Kong)

^b CHINESE UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG   (Hong Kong)

^c INSTITUTE OF APPLIED MATHEMATICS   (China)

^d MINISTRY OF HEALTH   (Singapore)

^e NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF SINGAPORE   (Singapore)

^f The Australian National University   (Australia)

Author keywords

Disease outbreaks; Disease transmission; Infection; Severe acute respiratory syndrome

Indexed keywords

DISEASE TRANSMISSION; EPIDEMIC; PREDICTION; SEVERE ACUTE RESPIRATORY SYNDROME;

ARTICLE; CITY; COMMUNITY; DISEASE TRANSMISSION; EPIDEMIC; HONG KONG; HOSPITAL; HUMAN; INFECTION; INFECTION RATE; MATHEMATICAL AND STATISTICAL PROCEDURES; MATHEMATICAL MODEL; SEVERE ACUTE RESPIRATORY SYNDROME; SINGAPORE; STATISTICAL MODEL; SYMPTOM;

ADULT; BIAS (EPIDEMIOLOGY); CLUSTER ANALYSIS; DISEASE NOTIFICATION; DISEASE OUTBREAKS; EPIDEMIOLOGIC METHODS; EPIDEMIOLOGIC STUDIES; FORECASTING; HONG KONG; HUMANS; INFECTION CONTROL; MIDDLE AGED; MODELS, STATISTICAL; MORBIDITY; PATIENT ADMISSION; POPULATION SURVEILLANCE; PREDICTIVE VALUE OF TESTS; PROBABILITY; RISK FACTORS; SEVERE ACUTE RESPIRATORY SYNDROME; SINGAPORE; TIME FACTORS; URBAN HEALTH;

ASIA; CHINA; EURASIA; FAR EAST; HONG KONG; SINGAPORE [SOUTHEAST ASIA]; SOUTHEAST ASIA;

EID: 5444243089     PISSN: 00029262     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwh273     Document Type: Article

References (26)

1. World Health Organization. Summary table of SARS cases by country, 1 November, 2002-7 August, 2003. Geneva, Switzerland: World Health Organization, 2003. (http://www.who.int/csr/sars). (Accessed August 20, 2003).
2. World Health Organization. Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) - multi-country outbreak - update 30. Status of diagnostic test, significance of "super spreaders," situation in China, 15 April, 2003. Geneva, Switzerland: World Health Organization, 2003. (http://www.who.int/csr/don/ 2003_04_15/en/). (Accessed June 4, 2003).
3. Department of Health, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China. Outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) at Amoy Gardens, Kowloon Bay, Hong Kong - main findings of the investigation. Hong Kong: Department of Health, Hong Kong SAR, 2003. (http://www.info.gov.hk/info/ap/pdf/ amoy_e.pdf). (Accessed October 25, 2003).
4. World Health Organization. Environmental health team reports on Amoy Gardens, 16 May, 2003. Manila, Philippines: World Health Organization Regional Office for the Western Pacific, 2003. (http://www.info.gov.hk/info/ap/who-amoye. pdf). (Accessed October 25, 2003).
5. Tomlinson B, Cockram C. SARS: experience at Prince of Wales Hospital, Hong Kong. Lancet 2003;361:1486-7.
6. Leo YS, Chen M, Lee CC, et al. Severe accurate respiratory syndrome - Singapore, 2003. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2003;52:405-11.
7. Anderson RM, May RM. Infectious diseases of humans - dynamics and control. New York, NY: Oxford University Press, 2002.
8. Riley S, Fraser C, Donelly CA, et al. Transmission dynamics of the etiological agent of SARS in Hong Kong - impact of public health interventions. Science 2003;300:1961-6.
9. Lipsitch M, Cohen T, Cooper B, et al. Transmission dynamics and control of severe acute respiratory syndrome. Science 2003;30:1966-70.
10. Paunio M, Peltola H, Valle M, et al. Explosive school-based measles outbreak: intense exposure may have resulted in high risk, even among revaccinees. Am J Epidemiol 1998;148:1103-10.
11. Khan AS, Tshioko FK, Heymann DL, et al. The reemergence of Ebola hemorrhagic fever, Democratic Republic of the Congo, 1995. J Infect Dis 1999;179(suppl 1):S72-86.
12. Austin DJ, Anderson RM. Transmission dynamics of epidemic methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus and vancomycin-resistant enterococci in England and Wales. J Infect Dis 1999;179:883-91.
13. SARS statistics - daily update for Hong Kong, mainland China, and Taiwan. Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China: Clinical Trials Centre, Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, 2003. (http://www.hku.hk/ctc/index.htm). (Accessed June 4, 2003).
14. Donnelly CA, Ghani AC, Leung GM, et al. Epidemiological determinants of spread of causal agent of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong. Lancet 2003;361:1761-6.
15. Byrd RH, Schnabel RB, Shultz GA. Approximate solution of the trust region problem by minimization over two-dimensional subspaces. Mathematical Programming 1988;40:247-63.
16. Coleman TF, Li Y. An interior trust region approach for nonlinear minimization subject to bounds. SIAM J Optim 1996;6:418-45.
17. Moré JJ, Sorensen DC. Computing a trust region step. SIAM J Sci Stat Comput 1983;3:553-72.
18. Becker NG, Marschner IC. Advances in medical statistics arising from the AIDS epidemic. Stat Methods Med Res 2001;10:117-40.
19. Brookmeyer R, Blades N. Prevention of inhalational anthrax in the U.S. outbreak. Science 2002;295:1861.
20. Anderson RM, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM, et al. Transmission dynamics and epidemiology of BSE in British cattle. Nature 1996;382:779-88.
21. Tsang T, Lai-Tim T, Pak-Yin L, et al. Update: outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome - worldwide, 2003. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2003;52:241-6, 248.
22. Lee N, Hui D, Wu A, et al. A major outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong. N Engl J Med 2003;348:1986-94.
23. Consensus document on the epidemiology of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). Geneva, Switzerland: Department of Communicable Disease Surveillance and Response, World Health Organization, 2003. (http://www.who.int/ csr/sars/en/WHOconsensus.pdf). (Accessed November 1, 2003).
24. Shen Z, Ning F, Zhou W, et al. Superspreading SARS events, Beijing. Emerg Infect Dis 2004;10:256-60.
25. Peiris JSM, Chu CM, Cheng VCC, et al. Clinical progress and viral load in a community outbreak of coronavirus-associated SARS pneumonia: a prospective study. Lancet 2003;361:1767-72.
26. Wong TW, Lee CK, Tam W, et al. Cluster of SARS among medical students exposed to single patient, Hong Kong. Emerg Infect Dis 2004;10:269-76.